Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Official Rookie/Free Agent Draft 2011

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=2011draft

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Mark Ingram, NO

Relentless and physical. He may not be the most electric RB prospect to enter the NFL draft, but he was made for the NFL. He possesses elite vision and awareness, sheds tackles, fully utilizes blockers, is strong and physical, and gives every ounce of effort with every run. He is not as fast or quick as you would hope for in a top prospect, but the same things were said about Emmitt Smith, who Ingram compares favorably to. Ingram was never a prototypical workhorse RB at Alabama, but I contend that just means he is more fresh. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (if he is not cut or traded) will not be forgotten about, but they will certainly need to step aside. Expect Ingram to be the starter, but don't expect him to be used as much as the likes of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson.

1.02 ~ WR Julio Jones, ATL

Athletic and fearless. I'm not really surprised that he got chosen before A.J. Green. Jones exploded at the combine

Fantasy Playoffs Preview (Weeks 11-13)

Either you're in, or you temporarily lost your taste for football. It's playoff time! Chances are if you scored the likes of Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, or Kyle Orton off of the waiver wire, you are in the playoffs. If you were savvy enough to draft the likes of Arian Foster, Hakeem Nicks, Philip Rivers, Dwayne Bowe, or Terrell Owens, you are probably wearing your dancing shoes. If you happened to be like one owner in my keeper league, who happened to keep Antonio Gates in the sixth round, draft Arian Foster in the second round, draft Peyton Hillis in the fifteenth round, pick up Michael Vick off of waivers after week 1 (and right after Andy Reid declared Kevin Kolb to continue being the starter once he got healthy following the concussion he suffered in the week 1 game versus the Packers), and trade Maurice Jones-Drew for Calvin Johnson and Ladainian Tomlinson before the week 4 games, chances are you a rolling pretty damn high into the playoffs with a 13-0 record and about to destroy many league records held by me.

Whatever the case, if you are in the playoffs, you should be obsessing about your roster, potential free agent pickups, matchups of not only this weekend but also of the entire fantasy playoffs (especially for fantasy defenses), and how the 13-0 team can be upset. This is the time of year where you start your studs, but many players can be benched for other players with great matchups. Just because you have been winning games on strong performances from Brandon Lloyd, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Steve Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Vernon Davis doesn't mean you should start them automatically. This is the time of the year where matchups are more important than ever. Hopefully, you were savvy enough to stock up your roster with players having great matchups during these next three weeks. The owner who thinks he should roll with all his top players throughout the playoffs, no matter what the matchups are is likely to come away disappointed, unless your starting roster is Michael Vick, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gates, and the Eagles defense like the owner in my league I mentioned above. I will try to give you some advice on certain players in the playoffs to increase your chances of winning.

Unbenchable Players

Aaron Rodgers
~~Once again we find him at the top of the QB stat sheets. The Packers lost their running game, so Rodgers took it upon himself to single-handedly dismantle his opponents. His domination will continue into the playoffs, especially in weeks 14 and 15 against the Lions and Patriots.

Michael Vick
~~There are many words to describe his season like unbelievable, phenomenal, redemption, and unstoppable. He is the second best QB in fantasy, and he has only played in seven and two half games out of the twelve. He can't be contained. Unbenchable is stating the blatantly obvious.

Philip Rivers
~~Undrafted rookie WR Seyi Ajirotutu. Do I need to elaborate?

Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate

Analyze This ~ Week 7

Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.

Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.

I want to take a moment to elaborate on some of the bust predictions I made last week. First of all, those players I listed I considered busts or eventual busts according to their preseason expectations. Maurice Jones-Drew is one in a very small handful of RBs getting a workhorse load, averaging over 20 touches (21.7) per game. Given the multitude of RB committees in the NFL, the few remaining workhorses are workhorses for a reason...they can keep healthy, handle a heavy load, and are playmakers extraordinaire. Therefore, after six weeks (now seven) I would certainly expect Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice to at least be in the top 10 of RBs. Anything less, and they are busts, especially since all those RBs were top 5 fantasy picks. MJD made my bust list (and not my

Analyze This ~ Week 6

I was just watching the Monday Night Football pregame on ESPN. First of all, how is it possible that anybody can take Matt Millen seriously? Why do I have to continue to see his empty head on TV talking football? Why does Stuart Scott keep asking Millen to evaluate certain players? We already know how "great" Millen's player evaluations are. His draft record with the Lions proves that. For example, Scott just asked Millen which current NFL RB would he build a team around. Millen responded quickly and emphatically "Adrian Peterson." Let me take a moment to calm down a bit.................still pissed...................


.........With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Millen had the chance to draft Peterson in 2007. Instead of trading down to any one of a multitude of teams willing to trade up to get Calvin and draft Peterson, he put his miserable track record of drafting first round WRs to the test. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and Calvin is almost everything he was scouted to be, but I would much rather have a stud RB over a stud WR to build around, all day, every day. The moron even said it, even though in 2007 he passed on trading down and drafting AD. So...maybe the Lions did need a WR to compliment Roy Williams. I guess Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, or Steve Breaston couldn't fit that bill. We could have had AD (or even stud LT Joe Thomas) and one of those aforementioned WRs in the 2007 Draft. Millen has no business talking player evaluations and scouting. For that matter, his face would look better with a tread print of one of my Timberland boots on it.

...Yes, it still stings to think of the joke called the "Millen Era."

On the Path to Bust City

As you have already deducted by the sub-title of this section, these are the busts. Some players have already busted (according to their preseason expectations) and likely won't improve the rest of the year. Others are looking like they could be fine, but they will eventually let down their owners. I have listed the stats of the busts through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players who have not yet busted are soon to be flops or have injuries cost them extensive amounts of time. Players not listed (I think they will turn it around) include Brett Favre, DeAngelo Willams, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith CAR, Randy Moss, Heath Miller, and Owen Daniels.

Already arrived...

Analyze This ~ Week 5

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless

Analyze This ~ Week 3 and Week 4

~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~

This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...



Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world

 ~~Kyle Orton is a top 3 QB with no WR1 or receiving TE on the Broncos roster, which leads me to this...

~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.

~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.

~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.

~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.

~~Where has Ray Rice gone?

~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.

~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and

Analyze This ~ Week 2

Two weeks down, fourteen more glorious fantasy weeks to go. Now that two weeks are recorded in the books, NFL teams will start to settle down, find their mojo, and players will start to become more transparent as far as what kind of fantasy performances they will give your team and how well they can perform against tough defenses.

I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore gain a total of over 150 yards, or how rare it is to see Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin have a 3 FF point output in any game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Jahvid Best ~ 9 receptions (14 targets)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 105 receiving yards
Kyle Orton ~ 307 passing yards
Chris Cooley ~ double digit FF points (12)
Matt Ryan ~ 3 TDs/0 ints
Malcom Floyd ~ 31.7 yards per catch average
Aaron Hernandez ~ 6 targets (6 receptions)
Mike Williams TB ~ double digit FF points (11)
Deon Butler ~ 5 receptions (8 targets)
Brandon Jackson ~ 2.9 yards per rush average
Matt Cassel ~ under 10 FF points (3)
Donald Driver ~ 38 receiving yards
Louis Murphy ~ 10 targets (6 receptions)

...And Much Less of This

LeSean McCoy ~ 30 FF points
Michael Vick ~ 108.0 passer rating
Kevin Walter ~ 11 targets (11 receptions)
Jay Cutler ~ 0 ints
Brandon Pettigrew ~ 108 receiving yards
Steve Smith NYG ~ 35 receiving yards
Chad Henne ~ 15 pass attempts (9 completions)
Donald Brown ~ 16 rushes
Hakeem Nicks ~ 2 receptions (5 targets)
Felix Jones ~ 9 total touches (7 runs/2 catches)
Dez Bryant ~ 2 targets (2 receptions)
Jeremy Maclin ~ 26 receiving yards

Thoughts

~The Cardinals offense without Kurt Warner (and Anquan Boldin) is an absolute mess. Look for

Analyze This ~ Week 1

I am really furious that NFL Redzone is now a service I have to pay for. The cable network I pay for made progress before last season when arbitration caused the NFL Network to be included in the regular lineup. Last season that included the NFL Redzone channel, owned and operated by NFL Network. This year, I find out the hard way that I no longer have NFL Redzone in my regular lineup. Instead of enjoying every minute of football I can possibly cram into my head from the first kickoff, while paying close attention to my revamped Lions team, I have to spend about twenty minutes on the phone with my ridiculous cable network to work out the financial details of how I can get the NFL Redzone without paying an extra $8 per month. Needless to say, I will not go an NFL season without my NFL Redzone channel. Have I mentioned that I love what they do?

Typically, the first one or two weeks of the NFL season involves a lot of fluky plays, performances, and outcomes. This first week was certainly no different. Players are jacked up on adrenaline, certain plays still have kinks to work out, timing between QBs and receivers require fine tuning, and generally, teams need to find their identity. I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning score over 20 fantasy football (FF) points, or how rare it is to see Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and Ray Rice have a 2.2 or less yards per carry average in any given game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Anquan Boldin ~ 110 receiving yards
Jay Cutler ~ over 300 passing yards (372 total)
Eddie Royal ~ 8 catches (10 targets)
Roddy White ~ 12+ targets (23 total!!!)
Visanthe Shaincoe ~ TDs (1 total)
Chris Cooley ~ 6 catches (9 targets)
Dez Bryant ~ 12 targets (8 catches)
Mike Wallace ~ 31.0 yards per catch average
Todd Heap ~ 6 catches (11 targets)
Matt Forte ~ 2.9 yards per run average
Knowshon Moreno ~ 60 rushing yards
Justin Forsett ~ 10 total touches (7 runs/3 catches)
Peyton Hillis & Jerome Harrison ~ 50/50 split of carries (9 each)
Reggie Bush ~ 7 touches (2 runs/5 catches)
Lee Evans ~ 3 FF points

...and Much Less of This

Through the Wire

I have already explained my lack of time for blogging over these last two weeks or so, and this piece will also result in dramatic abbreviation. I was hoping to be able to post this waiver wire article before the start of the season, but time has flown for me.

These players are the players who have gone mainly undrafted, and I believe they will all have some sort of fantasy impact in either small parts of the season or throughout the season. Some will step up when a player ahead of them on the depth chart gets injured, while others are simply overlooked.

Here are the players you should be adding to your scout team...

Louis Murphy ~ the top WR for Jason Campbell.

Mike Thomas ~ performed well his rookie year, and has had nothing but high praise coming into this season. He is a wonderful PPR sleeper.

Jake Delhomme ~ has regained the little bit of arm strength he lacked last season.

Jason Campbell ~ always overlooked, but ended last season with very good performances.

Leonard Weaver ~ is a Mike Bell injury away from being the regular short-yardage/goalline RB in Philadelphia.

Keiland Williams ~ has Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart, which causes me to be optimistic about his chances of getting on the field during the season.

Early Doucet ~ ended last year with hot performances, and could potentially outperform Steve Breaston.

Brandon LaFell ~ he will be the second WR and second overall receiving option in Carolina.

Deon Butler ~ Deion Branch is very injury prone, and Butler will step up when Branch is out of the lineup.

Josh Morgan ~ in his third year, and is always overlooked in drafts. He is an excellent

Breakouts

Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.

Here are this year's breakouts...

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.

Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of

Wake Up, Sleepy Head!

The next value group includes what is obviously the most popular category of value players--the sleepers. Every single fantasy owner, expert, fantasy site, and their moms have a list or an idea of who their favorite sleepers are. In general terms, a sleeper is a player who will have unexpected success and has the potential to drastically overachieve. More specifically, sleepers are usually found in the mid-rounds and later in your drafts, and they are typically players who are young, unproven, and/or lacking any form of consistent success in the NFL. Furthermore, this group may include players who unexpectedly breakout, players who greatly outperform their draft pick, and no-name players who become solid fantasy starters. However, this group may also include players who stay at or below the value of their draft pick. The trick is to find those sleepers who have the most favorable situations and motivation. Unfortunately, a few of these sleeper options have become so popular that their ADP has improved over the last month or so, effectively lowering their value in drafts.

Here are the players who I like to be successful sleeper options. I have also listed what their potential best fantasy output and potential role on your fantasy team could be...

Jahvid Best
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.03/4.05
Primary Reasons to Like: unbelievable quickness and speed, preferred over Kevin Smith, playmaker extraordinaire, Lions starter and possible featured RB
Potential: top ten RB, definite regular starter, occasional huge games

Arian Foster
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.08/5.10
Primary Reasons to Like: Ben Tate is on IR, Slaton is still struggling, fits into zone-blocking scheme, will get majority of RB touches, 2009 hot season-ending performance
Potential: solid RB2, regular starter, consistent output
~Ben Tate broke his ankle during the first game of the preseason, causing the Texans to place him on injured reserve. Tate was being groomed to be the starter and potential featured RB in the Texans zone-blocking scheme. Foster, who is also an adept runner in a zone-blocking scheme does not possess the speed and quickness that Tate had, but he is quickly proving he is ready to take on a bigger role. He already turned

Underrated

I will now focus on the players who have good draft value. Underrated, sleeper, and breakout players are all excellent draft targets. Unfortunately, many of them will be drafted to other teams, so pick your favorites out of these groups and target them one to two rounds earlier than their ADP. The differences between the three groups are distinct, but can be easily confused.

The first of the value groups are the underrated players. These players are generally not given the respect they deserve. This group can include players returning from a major injury, players who can increase production from last season (but not in breakout fashion), players in a new system more complimentary to their skills, and overlooked players flying under the radar. These players won't necessarily emerge this season (or have already emerged), and likewise, they will not necessarily have unexpected success and drastically overachieve like a successful sleeper would. Simply put, the uncertainly surrounding these players cause them to fall further in drafts then they should.

These are the players who are underrated and should perform a bit better than their ADP suggests...

Joseph Addai
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/4.12
Primary Causes of Concern: 2008 bust, pass-heavy offense, Donald Brown
Reasons for Good Value: receiving threat, red-zone threat
~Did you know that Addai was actually a top ten RB in standard no-PPR scoring last season, recovering from his busted 2008 season? He was even better in PPR systems. Many people have not taken notice of that, primarily because Addai was well below 1000 rushing yards (828) on the year. However, he did rush for 10 TDs, caught 3 more, and also racked up 51 receptions for 336 yards. The only RBs who had more total TDs than Addai were Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, and Willis McGahee. Addai will continue to score the TDs this season, especially since the Colts coaching staff is expressing their renewed commitment to the running game. Last year, Addai shed his bust label from 2008, and was heavily involved in the pass-heavy Colts offense. Donald Brown may end up being

Overrated

When a player is overrated in fantasy football, he is not necessarily a bust. Overrated in the most general fantasy football terms means a player's ADP is higher than it should be by at least one round. Overrated players generally have a lot of hype surrounding them, or are big, well-established names in fantasy football who have detrimental circumstances effecting their value. They will be drafted higher than they should be.

You don't have to avoid these players, but don't draft them unless they fall at least a round further than their ADP (a couple of rounds further for the mid-rounders). There will be a few better options available at these player's ADPs...

Larry Fitzgerald
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: Adios Kurt Warner, adios QB stability
~I have already listed Matt Leinart in the bust category, so that prediction would naturally reciprocate throughout the passing offense. Fitz has been the biggest WR name over the last few years, and with good reason. He is a playmaker, has the best hands you will ever see, and does all the little things correct. However, calling him overrated is absolutely not a knock on his skills and abilities. He will be relying on Leinart to keep him in the stud category, and that is shaky at best. He will still perform like a low WR1/high WR2 for your team, but he is still being drafted like a top 5 stud WR. His stats will dip a bit for at least this year.

Miles Austin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.05/2.04
Primary Cause: Dez Bryant
~Austin emerged last season as Tony Romo's go-to guy. In fact, outside of Austin and Jason Witten, Romo didn't really have anyone else to throw to consistently. Roy Williams was a bum all year, and Patrick Crayton disappeared after his inspired week 1 performance. The Cowboys addressed their need at WR in the NFL Draft, not by drafting a complimentary counterpart to Austin, but by drafting a future stud WR who will threaten Austin's new found status as Romo's top target. Dez Bryant has looked like and carried himself as every bit of a future stud WR in the NFL so far. He was even given

Your Busted!

All of you should be familiar with what busts are. These are players who I predict will have a dramatic decrease in expected production, or flop altogether. Their production could plummet from factors such as bad o-lines, inconsistencies, position competition, or injuries. As the standard goes, there always tends to be at least one first-round bust every year. The first-round bust doesn't necessarily flop but simply does not perform like a first (or second, third, and fourth) round pick should.

Here are the players you should avoid in your drafts...

Rashard Mendenhall (first-round bust)
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: fumbles, passing game, Jonathan Dwyer
~According to the above ADP, he is a second round draft pick on average. However, he is late first-round consideration in pretty much every draft everywhere, and he has been drafted in the first round of every mock draft I have completed so far. It was difficult to label Mendenhall as a first round bust because he finally emerged last season as the stud many thought he would be, and looked like he was going to improve this season with the Steelers renewed commitment to the power running game. A few factors will knock his status back down to earth this season: First, he had a problem with fumbles last year. That is a problem that should be easily solved, but that directly relates to another cause of his first-round bust status: Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer's game is very similar to Mendenhall's game and Dwyer fits very well into the Steelers power rushing attack. If Mendenhall starts to have a problem with fumbles again, we could see Dwyer take some carries away from him. I also expect Dwyer to be a TD vulture, possibly seeing more goalline touches than Mendenhall. Finally, the Steelers passing game has been obliterated this season. Their top WR and Superbowl XLIII MVP was traded away--because of character issues--without any planned replacement, and

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Rookie/Free Agent Draft

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will comment on every pick as they are made. The draft officially begins May 1st, but early picks may be made. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=draft2010

**My picks

1.01 ~ RB Ryan Matthews, SD

This is pretty much the consensus top pick of any rookie draft. He will be immediately inserted into the Chargers lineup as the starting and primary RB, with Darren Sproles returning back to his change-of-pace role. Norv Turner has already expressed interest in giving Matthews around 250 carries and 40 receptions during his rookie year, which would be more than what LaDanian Tomlinson racked up last year (223 carries 20 receptions). Matthews is the only RB in this draft who is guaranteed to have a primary role, and not splitting carries in a committee situation.

1.02 ~ WR Dez Bryant, DAL

He wasn't the first WR taken in the NFL Draft, but he is certainly the most talented WR and wound up with the Cowboys and a very good QB in Tony Romo. He isn't the fastest WR, but he is quick, can run all the routes, has solid hands, and is very strong and athletic. He will find success immediately in the Cowboys offense, but he will need to improve his consistency. In a PPR league,

The Donovan McNabb Trade ~ Fantasy Implications

There are some huge fantasy implications involving the Donovan McNabb trade that went down Easter Sunday. As the speculation was swirling about where he could be traded (Oakland being the front runner), all of the obvious options were explored. Basically, every team that needed QB help was considered, including the Redskins who became less and less interested in Jason Campbell running the offense. The Redskins seem like a nice fit for McNabb because Mike Shannahan runs a similar West Coast offensive system and likes a QB who can bootleg or roll out, creating passing plays while scrambling. Prior to the trade going down, all the offensive pieces seemed to be in place for the Redskins to make a playoff run, as long as the right QB was put in place to run the plays (and as long as the holes in the offensive line get addressed during the NFL draft).

So, why the hell would the Eagles trade a pro-bowl caliber QB to a division rival, who they will play twice every year? There was speculation as early as Saturday that the Redskins had inquired about McNabb, but it was still more of a rumor than a report. This wasn't out of the ordinary because many of the teams needing an upgrade at QB had inquired about trading for him. Of course many people, including myself, immediately shot down the possibility of a trade between the Eagles and the Redskins involving any pro-bowl players, for obvious reasons. However, the relationship between McNabb and Andy Reid was strong enough that Reid was willing to trade McNabb to a division rival if it made McNabb happy.

"We thought this was the best for Donovan and

Post-season Exercises (5 of 5) ~ Returning From Injuries

Experience should tell you that many players who missed much, if not most, of a season due to injury are easily overlooked in the following season by fantasy owners. A perfect example comes from my 2005 season of my money league. I drafted Steve Smith in the eighth round of that draft when he was blossoming into one of the best WRs in fantasy football. Why did he slide so far? In the 2004 season, Smith broke his leg in the first week of the season, causing him to be put on IR and ending his season. Going into the 2005 season, many people forgot what he was capable of because he missed so much time, and especially since Muhsin Muhammad had a career year in Smith's absence. As a result, his 2005 draft stock dropped everywhere. I was lucky enough to watch him slide all the way to the eight round of my draft where I quickly snatched him up. He was my third WR chosen that year, and ended up being the best WR of the season in standard scoring formats, along with being voted as the comeback player of the year. Needless to say, he was a big part of my Championship that year.

In this following section, I have taken note of players who have missed a large portion of the season, typically half or more, due to injuries, ending the season on IR. Many of these players

Postseason Exercises (4 of 5) ~ Hot Season-Ending Performances

Late Rounds/Undrafted

Most of these guys will go undrafted, but a couple of them might sneak into the final rounds of your draft. I will always advise fantasy footballers everywhere to draft your kicker in the final round of your draft, whether that round is the fourteenth or the twentieth, and usually draft your defense in one of the two previous rounds. These guys kinda fall into that same category if your roster size is sixteen players or greater. There is a fine chance that you could find better sleeper options during the final stages of your drafts than these players, but if they go undrafted, follow their progress and the team/player situations around them closely. They could surprise you during the season. I'm talking about...

Alex Smith
~~What do Frank Gore, Micheal Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Josh Morgan have in common...other than being 49ers? All four guys put together compose one hell of a life raft for Smith. Take away any one of these guys and Smith might sink. After taking over for the ineffective Shaun Hill during week 7 Smith has resurrected his waning career. He has encountered some well documented but easily forgotten problems with an injured throwing shoulder that derailed his 2007 season and caused him to find the IR for almost the entire 2008 season after a second surgery on it. Through the ten and a half games he played in 2009, he completed 225 out of 372 attempted passes (60.5 percent) for 2350 yards, 18 TDs and 12 ints. Project that over an entire sixteen game season and he would have completed approximately 343 out of 567 attempted passes for 3581 yards, 27 TDs and 18 ints. That would've ranked him right around the fourteenth best QB for the season in standard scoring formats. Not too bad for a supposedly busted QB in a run-heavy offense. Morgan will be entering his third year with the 49ers and Crabtree will have an entire offseason and preseason to learn the plays and develop rapport. Put it all together and