Mock Draft Analysis ~ PPR v no-PPR

--An owner in my dynasty league is starting up a FF website called Fantasydepot.com, and he asked myself along with a couple other league members to write him an article in order to give him a head start into the internet FF business. I authored the following article as a "house-warming" gift for him. Members of our dynasty league, along with friends of the website's owner also participated in completing the PPR and no-PPR mock drafts, which ended up being the basis of my article. You can see the mock drafts I analyzed at http://www.fantasydepot.com/mock/--

The first official Fantasydepot.com expert mock drafts were a Points per Reception (PPR) mock and a No Points per Reception (no-PPR) mock, done at the same time, and in the more unorthodox 14-team format. These mock drafts were performed by the Fantasydepot.com staff and the rest of us “experts” during the end of April and into May, and only the first seven rounds were addressed (I drafted from the sixth position in both mocks). I put “experts” in quotes because anyone can call themselves a fantasy football expert and give out advice. If you look around the various fantasy football websites, you will find a lot of bad advice given out by Joe Schmoe and John Doe, not only on the message boards where anyone can talk a lot of junk, but also by some of the so-called “experts” who are actually paid to give out advice. My only hope is that I can go above and beyond those who give out erroneous and unfounded advice and give you some valuable thoughts and strategies that will be useful for your next draft.

I will begin by explaining PPR versus no-PPR and elaborate on some of my drafting strategies while I dig into the analysis of the two mock drafts.

PPR v No-PPR

No-PPR leagues are the more standard format of fantasy football leagues, but over the last few years, PPR leagues have been becoming increasingly popular, and are now practically just as popular as the standard no-PPR format. What the PPR system tends to do is give more value to WRs, so they may be more equivalent in value to the RBs. As a more unintended byproduct of the PPR system, RBs who get a lot of receptions will also hold more value. For example, in the 2008 season the top 10 RBs in a no-PPR, standard scoring format (according to ESPN.com) were:
1. D Williams
2. M Turner
3. A Peterson
4. T Jones
5. M Forte
6. L Tomlinson
7. S Slaton
8. B Westbrook
9. C Portis
10. M Jones-Drew

In a PPR, standard scoring format (according to ESPN.com), they were:
1. D Williams
2. M Forte
3. M Jones-Drew
4. M Turner
5. L Tomlinson
6. T Jones
7. S Slaton
8. B Westbrook
9. A Peterson
10. C Johnson

By far, the most shocking result of the change from a no-PPR format to a PPR format is the drop in value of A Peterson. Going into the 2009 season, he is pretty much the consensus top overall pick in any format that doesn’t have some kind of ridiculous scoring system. When the RBs start to receive points for getting catches, the values of players like M Jones-Drew or M Forte get a bit inflated, while stud RBs like M Turner and A Peterson lose a bit of value because they don’t get very involved on passing downs.

As for the main intended effect of playing in a PPR system, the WRs suddenly have equivalent value to RBs. In fact, in PPR the top 2 overall scorers of 2008 were A Johnson and L Fitzgerald, followed by D Williams at 3. Obviously, WRs who get more receptions tend to have more value. The best example of this would be W Welker. He got 111 receptions for 1165 yards and 3 TDs last season. In the traditional no-PPR system, these stats made him the 21st ranked WR and the 92nd overall ranked player, with 13 kickers scoring more points than him. Put his stats into a PPR format, and he suddenly jumps up to being the 10th best WR and the 27th overall player, well ahead of any kicker I might add.

All of this adds up to major differences between a no-PPR draft and a PPR draft. In no-PPR, many people will draft two RBs before even thinking about a WR, and some will take a QB before their first WR. In a PPR system, you will start to see WRs flying off the board, starting at the end of the first round/beginning of the second round, with more WRs than RBs being drafted in the second and third rounds. It is certainly advised to invest in your first WR no later than the second round of a PPR draft, but you may easily wait until the third round for your first WR in a no-PPR format.

As you compare the two mock drafts, you will immediately notice the differences where the WRs are being picked. Another effect you will notice is the TEs getting drafted earlier in the PPR mock than in the no-PPR mock. The top TEs tend to get as many receptions as a WR2 will, so they will certainly go earlier in PPR. The last noticeable effect of the PPR system is how the run on WRs (and a few TEs) will keep QBs on the board a bit longer. One of my draft strategies involves drafting my QB no earlier than the sixth round. In the PPR mock, everyone was so worried about getting their WRs that A Rodgers slipped down to me in the fifth round. I currently have him ranked 5th amongst QBs, and when I saw T Romo and K Warner get picked and A Rodgers was still there, I simply couldn’t pass on him.

Personally, I am more of a purest, and I definitely prefer a no-PPR system. I don’t like a WR, who touches the ball 90-120 times, to be as good if not better than a stud RB who touches the ball 250 or more times. Starting RBs should be better, on average, than WRs because they touch the ball a lot more. That is the nature of the beast. Of course there are many different kinds of scoring systems that have been created over the years, and customized systems are always flexible. Some people try fluctuating the amount of points given for receptions, some try giving points for rushing attempts (when more points are given to receptions), some try bonus systems, and others try adding points on pass completions. Most of these systems are devised to try and balance the values of QBs, RBs, and WRs. Starting QBs touch the ball every play and pass the ball typically 25-50 times a game, starting RBs typically touch the ball 15-30 times a game, while starting WRs only catch about 4-10 balls a game. Scoring systems should reflect, not only how good a player is, but also how often he is used. That is the way the wonderful game of football is played, and I think that should always be reflected in fantasy football formats.

Analyzing the Picks

At this point I will dissect the PPR and no-PPR mock drafts and let you know who got drafted to early, who fell too far in the draft, where a few value picks will be, and when to draft a rookie. It is still pretty early in the off-season, so a lot of these picks will move around once we see what happens in the OTAs, mini-camps, training camps, and preseason. However, chances are that the first round of most drafts will stay relatively the same from now through preseason, pending injuries.

The first round of any draft, mock or actual, is always the most scrutinized round, both before and after every draft, but the fantasy football team is always made or broke during the mid-rounds. Finding mid-round value in players possessing a lot of potential or with players who slid too far is how you build a true championship team.

The first round:

I will begin by looking at the first round to see if everything went like most of us “experts” recited throughout the last few months. The first thing I notice is A Peterson and M Turner going 1 and 2 in both drafts. Remember about how PPR influences the value of RBs? That should push Turner below players like M Jones-Drew and M Forte in a PPR format. However, Turner will still be a top 5 pick in most PPR drafts.

The next thing I immediately notice is L Tomlinson getting picked early in both drafts. Tomlinson will be the topic of many heated debates during this off-season, where his effectiveness entering his ninth season as a featured workhorse will be in question. He has taken far too much of a beating over his career to continue to be a stud anymore. He may be considered a first round pick by some, but it is safe to say that drafting him 4th overall is a huge stretch. Don’t be that person who falls in love with his namesake.

My pick at the sixth slot is C Johnson (Chris, not Calvin) in both mock drafts. I absolutely love this guy because he has already proven to be capable of RB1 status, and he still has a ton of upside. I currently have him ranked 3rd on my cheat sheet, ahead of players like M Turner and M Forte for both draft formats. A lot of people may question that ranking, but his upside has potential to easily make him a top 3 RB.

Forte got drafted a little early for the no-PPR draft and a little late for the PPR draft. I am a little concerned about him this season because he pretty much got ran into the ground his rookie year. I smell a sophomore slump for this future stud.

The last thing I notice concerning the first round of both mocks is the difference in the draft position of R Bush. His draft position is reflected properly in either system, as he should be a PPR stud, but less exciting in no-PPR.

The next 2 rounds (2 and 3):

Here is where the WR run begins (more so in PPR) and the first QBs go off the board. Brees, Brady, and Manning are pretty much the consensus top 3 QBs everywhere. I don’t understand how or why Brees fell to the forth round in the PPR mock, and Romo got picked before him. I’m guessing a lot of the participants suddenly lost their cheat sheets during the third round. Putting Brees’ draft position in that mock aside, you can certainly expect all three of Brees, Brady, and Manning to be taken, long before the third round is over in all 14-team and 12-team drafts, and even in most 10-team drafts.

In the PPR mock, J Witten got picked during the third round as the first TE off the board, while he slid to the forth round in the no-PPR mock. That is another example of the impact of the PPR system. Picking a TE in the third round is still too early for my taste, but in a 14-team draft the talent thins out quickly. Witten, who averaged 80 receptions, 950 yards, and 4 TDs over the last three years, should put up numbers equal to, if not better than the WRs picked after him. Witten is not only the top TE overall, but he is also a PPR machine.

One WR who is still rated as a top 5 WR by most people, and who I don’t think deserves that consideration, is M Colston. A big reason for his slightly inflated ranking this season is simply D Brees. I’m not saying he is a bust, but I am simply pointing out that Brees tends to spread the ball around a lot. That became very apparent last season when L Moore suddenly became a prominent WR, and it became even more apparent when Colston returned from his thumb injury. In five of Colston’s ten games he played following his injury, he had 3 or less receptions. Add that inconsistency to the fact that he is becoming injury prone and had arthroscopic knee surgery in January, and I have every right to be concerned. Now lets be honest, he is still of the WR1 variety, but I’m thinking a mid/low-end WR1, not a top 5 stud.

I was also surprised by the pick of T Jones, early in the second round of the no-PPR mock. Even though Jones had a big year last year, he is in a contract dispute with the Jets, has L Washington breathing over his shoulder as a shoe-in for more touches (the Jets will certainly re-work Leon’s contract), and lets not forget the rookie S Greene who should be able to take over for T Jones as early as this season. If Jones continues to dispute his contract, I could see the Jets easily parting ways with him or relegating him. In any case, he will not be the stud RB1 he was last year.

One last thing that surprised me during these rounds was the P Thomas pick early in the third round of the PPR mock. He is a very popular sleeper this year, but still may be a bit of a reach at the beginning of the third round with the likes of R Grant, M Lynch, and D McFadden on the board.

Some may even say that my pick of D McFadden in the third round of the no-PPR is a bit of a reach. However, given my options, I was pretty set on picking a RB and McFadden is another huge upside candidate with stud potential, and he looked better than the other RB options left. He may have fallen to me in the forth round (like he did in the PPR mock), but I didn’t want to take the chance.

The mid-rounds (4-7):

The middle rounds can tend to be a crapshoot in some areas, depending on players available and team position needs. Here is where sleepers start to get grabbed and reaches aren’t as obvious. This also tends to be where the first rookies go off the board.

I will begin by addressing M Crabtree’s draft position and the relative effectiveness of any and all rookie WRs. Many of us know to taper expectations for rookie WRs, no matter how much stud potential they have. I personally avoid any and all rookie WRs in the early and mid-rounds. I’m not saying that I would not want to have Crabtree, but rather I’m saying the big name rookie WRs will always be drafted too early. No matter how good a WR prospect is, there is a huge learning curve when transitioning from college to the NFL. Even the stud WRs usually don’t flourish until their second and third years. I would target Crabtree at about the eighth round in a 14-team draft, but he will almost assuredly be taken long before then, as reflected in both mock drafts.

The learning curve for rookie RBs, however, is much smaller. Picking K Moreno or C Wells as your third RB is not a bad idea at all. Rookie RBs can easily become studs, if given the right opportunity in the right system. Moreno in the fifth round or Wells in the sixth and seventh rounds are very good picks, not reaches in the 14-team format.

All of the other picks in the mid-rounds can be very randomized according to how different people rank the “post-stud” players on their cheat sheets. Starting RBs will tend to run out around the fifth and sixth rounds of 14-team drafts, down to about the eighth round in 10-team drafts. These are also the rounds where there will be the greatest value in QBs. For example, A Rodgers in the fifth round is much better value than T Romo in the third. C Palmer or M Schaub in the eighth round is way better value than P Rivers in the forth round.

Bonus: An Early Look at Sleepers (there is no such thing as a first-round sleeper)

RBs:
Early rounds - Ronnie Brown MIA, Darren McFadden OAK
Mid rounds - Pierre Thomas NO, Cedric Benson CIN, Leon Washington NYJ, Chris Wells ARI
Late rounds - Fred Jackson BUF, Ahmad Bradshaw/Andre Brown NYG, Ray Rice BAL, Jerious Norwood ATL (again), Michael Bush OAK, Tashard Choice DAL, and many more

WRs:
Early rounds - Dwayne Bowe KC
Mid rounds - Lee Evans BUF, Eddie Royal DEN, Laveranues Coles CIN, Donnie Avery STL, Anthony Gonzalez IND
Late rounds - Miles Austin DAL, Brian Robiske CLE, Earl Bennett CHI, Bobby Engram/Mark Bradley KC

QBs:
Early rounds - none here as usual
Mid rounds - Matt Schaub HOU, Matt Ryan ATL
Late rounds - Kyle Orton DEN, Daunte Culpepper DET, Matt Hasselbeck SEA, David Garrard JAC

TEs:
Early rounds - none here as usual
Mid rounds - Greg Olsen CHI, John Carlson SEA
Late rounds - Martellus Bennett DAL, Chase Coffman CIN

Bonus: An Early Look at Busts (there is no such thing as a late round bust)

RBs:
First round - Matt Forte CHI
Early rounds - LaDainian Tomlinson SD, Steve Slaton HOU
Mid rounds - Willis McGahee BAL, Thomas Jones NYJ, Earnest Graham TB

WRs:
First round - Larry Fitzgerald ARI (Madden cover curse???)
Early rounds - Terrell Owens BUF, Brandon Marshall DEN
Mid rounds - Santana Moss WAS, Bernard Berrian MIN, Deion Branch SEA

QBs:
First round - don’t bother drafting a first round QB.
Early rounds - Tony Romo DAL
Mid rounds - Matt Cassel KC

TEs:
First round - quit playing fantasy football now if you even consider drafting a TE here, or in round 2.
Early rounds - none here as usual
Mid rounds - Kellen Winslow TB, Kevin Boss NYG