~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~
This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...
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| Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world |
~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.
~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.
~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.
~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.
~~Where has Ray Rice gone?
~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.
~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and
Percy Harvin, downgrade Tom Brady.
~~Marques Colston has struggled, but that is due to Drew Brees spreading the ball around as expected.
~~Staying with the Saints, I am shocked that Robert Meachem has not had at least one solid game yet. He was one of the most popular sleepers this year mainly because of his strong performances over the last eight games of the 2009 season.
~~Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots' two rookie TEs, have been utilized frequently.
~~The Lions defense is a strong unit to own.
Gimmie Five
Determining trade value, who you should try to acquire, and who you should try to sell is very similar to playing the stock market. One of the most reliable and reused tricks is to try to acquire players who have a low current value but their potential is is still sky high. Likewise, you should also sell players who are drastically overachieving and their value has plateaued. These are the simple stock concepts of "buy low, sell high."
I will give you five players who are drastically underachieving, starting to concern their owners, and are perfect "buy low" candidates. I expect these players to recover very soon and start to perform closer to preseason expectations.
Felix Jones
Primary reasons to buy: big play ability, Cowboys' commitment to better offensive balance, Marion Barber not impressing, very easy schedule against running defenses for the second half of the season
Calvin Johnson
Primary reasons to buy: unlimited potential, Matthew Stafford's imminent return
Pierre Garcon
Primary reasons to buy: big play capability, current lowest value this season, better suited to wide-out than Austin Collie
Ronnie Brown
Primary reasons to buy: stud potential, Chad Henne's passing game will loosen up defenses, Dolphins will further commit to running.
Jason Witten
Primary reasons to buy: Tony Romo's second favorite passing target, will get a lot of receptions
Honorable mentions ~ Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Mike Sims-Walker
Take Five
I will also point out five players who have turned heads over the last couple of weeks, but should see a decrease in numbers and should be "sold high." Some of these players I have listed not necessarily because they have had recent huge performances, but because their name still holds a lot of weight in fantasy circles. There will be an owner willing to pay the price to get a big name who I believe will continue to struggle all year.
Austin Collie
Primary reasons to sell: Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai
Kyle Orton
Primary reasons to sell: current top fantasy QB, average WRs, you likely own a QB1 you drafted first
Larry Fitzgerald
Primary reasons to sell: Cardinals QBs situations, still a huge name--will get a high return in a trade
Brent Celek
Primary reasons to sell: Michael Vick doesn't use TEs much, Kevin Kolb will be the QB for a few games which will temporarily raise Celek's value
Darren McFadden
Primary reason to sell: injury prone
Honorable Mentions ~ Brandon Lloyd, LeSean McCoy, Peyton Hillis, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower, Mark Sanchez
Scout Team
These players should probably be in the free agent market of your leagues. Keep an eye on them as they should make a fantasy impact at some point during this season...
Tony Moeaki
Bruce Gradkowski
BenJarvis Green-Ellis
John Carlson
Danny Amendola
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kevin Smith
Chris Ivory
LeGarrette Blount
Shawn Nelson
Just a Few Thoughts
~~The Kansas City Chiefs are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL...REALLY?!?!
~~For those owners who have had a rough start to the season, be patient still. There are still a few more things in the fantasy world that will realign themselves.
~~Is anyone else surprised that Philip Rivers is actually doing better without his top WR Vincent Jackson and starting LT Marcus McNeil?
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