Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.
Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.
Speaking of running against the Bills, I think Ray Rice has to be considered for the bust list. I didn't include him last week because I was expecting him to rip the Bills a new...hole. He decided to be even more average against them than MJD was. Granted the Bills put the Ravens in a hole and Flacco had to pass a lot more, but Rice still didn't rip off any big runs. As of right now, I won't call Rice a first-round bust yet, primarily because he has a much better passing game to help him out, unlike MJD. It just doesn't seem right that two consensus top 5 fantasy picks are looking like first-round busts so far.
I will quickly explain why the players I quickly mentioned to not be busts will turn things around for you.
Brett Favre ~ takes a while to build a rapport with a new WR (Randy Moss), but he will soon.
Deangelo Williams ~ he is still averaging 4.1 yards per carry behind a poor offensive line, and I expect Matt Moore to perform much better than Jimmy Clausen (not too hard to do) and keep defenses honest.
Beanie Wells ~ is still recovering from preseason arthroscopic surgery on his knee and hasn't really had a chance to prove himself while fully healthy.
Ryan Mathews ~ he has been dealing with injuries and is recovering well. He has one of the best passing games to support him and one of the easiest RB schedules remaining.
Ronnie Brown ~ I had every intention of listing him as an obvious bust, but I just couldn't get over the fact that before he played the formidable Steelers this last weekend he was averaging 4.5 yards per carry. That was against four very stout run defenses (Vikings, Jets, Patriots, Packers) out of five games. He is practically impossible to trade away now, so stash him away for week 15 against the Bills and week 16 against the Lions, if you are lucky enough to make the playoffs. His schedule before those weeks is still pretty rough.
Steve Smith CAR ~ his talent is undeniable, but he can never seem to get a pro-bowl caliber QB throwing the ball to him. Matt Moore has a pretty solid rapport with him, far greater than what Jimmy Clausen had. He also has some pretty favorable matchups coming up.
Randy Moss ~ will soon get in sync with the greatest gunslinger of all time.
Heath Miller ~ Big Ben is back.
Owen Daniels ~ is finally appearing to be fully healthy after recovering from his knee surgery from his torn ACL last November and overcoming a strained hamstring from a few weeks back.
Halfway There
We are halfway through the fantasy season and now it is time to prepare for the final stretch before the fantasy playoffs. By now, it should be apparent who the best teams are, and therefore most likely to make the playoffs. Likewise, the bottom feeders are sinking and aren't thinking about playoffs. All the teams in the middle are essentially on the bubble and need to be serious about their preparations for the stretch run. These are the three groups of fantasy teams who I want to address, and I will discuss the strategies they should employ.
7-0, 6-1...
Your riding high, kicking ass, and are feeling pretty damn invincible right now. You have likely beat one or two owners with loaded teams, or you could be one of those incredibly lucky guys who have the least points scored against for the season. Whatever the case, seven or eight wins are usually good enough for a berth in a 6-team playoffs. You need to start to prepare for the playoffs. Furthermore, you need to make sure your team is strong enough to make a run at the best regular season record (good for cash in most money leagues) and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs. Here are what the top teams need to do...
~~Handcuff your stud RBs via trades or free agency. Nothing hurts worse than having your stud get injured and you have no backup plan.
~~If you have a lot of depth at any position (especially RB or WR) try to "consolidate" multiple players into a stud player to maximize your starting lineup.
~~Start to pay attention to player schedules in the playoff weeks 14, 15, and 16. Trade for high quality players who have easy matchups during those weeks, but who can also be regular starters in your lineup for the rest of the regular season. Good players with easy playoff schedules include Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Felix Jones/Marion Barber, Beanie Wells, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Miles Austin/Dez Bryant, Johnny Knox, Mike Williams TB, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Todd Heap.
~~Work at trading your sell high guys. Champions are typically people who will work to improve their team even when destroying the competition. Pay attention to remaining schedules and team situations to determine if you should sell certain players while their value is still high. Being content can destroy your promising season.
5-2, 4-3, 3-4...
Your team probably still has some loose ends to tie up. Maybe you are weak at one position, just above average at all positions, are dealing with injuries, or maybe the "schedule gods" are playing games with you. Whatever the case, your team still needs a bit of help to give you that boost down the stretch, but you really don't have to change your strategies just yet as long as you are still vigilant on the waiver wire, still offering crafty trades, and starting the right players. Here are some pointers for the middle teams...
~~Whatever you do, do not resort to desperate measures. Just relax and do not sell your studs unless you get a really good deal in return.
~~Buy low, sell high.
~~Pay attention to the rest of the season schedules of your players, but don't worry about the playoff matchups yet. Good players with easy schedules over the next five or six weeks include Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Mathews, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith CAR, Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie/Pierre Garcon, Greg Jennings, Visanthe Shiancoe, Heath Miller, and Tony Moeaki.
~~Make trades to strengthen any weakness in your starting lineup, especially if you have a lot of depth at another position.
~~Like the top teams, it wouldn't hurt if you also tried to consolidate your depth into a stud or at least a very good starter.
~~If you don't have good depth, keep scouring the waiver wire for hidden gems and backups to injury prone players.
~~Hold on to your high round draft picks that look like busts. Some of them can still turn it around.
2-5, 1-6, 0-7...
"What a waste of time, what a waste of money!" That could be what you are thinking, but you are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention just yet. You more than likely drafted or traded for multiple busted players or players who have been injured. You could also be facing high scoring teams every week, and are just simply getting jerked around by the "schedule gods." Whatever the case, you've got some serious work to do. Cellar dwellers should consider this advice...
~~It may be time for desperate measures. Try anything that you think could help you get some wins.
~~Don't give up! That is a wimp's way of dealing with your debacle of a team.
~~Injuries typically cannot be predicted and can bring the strongest teams to their knees. It happens.
~~If you are the 0-7 team and feel lost, please continue to fully participate in the league activities. Pick up players off the waiver wire, set your lineups, and field trade offers. Nothing is worse than a good team getting an easy win or getting a nice waiver wire gem because you are pouting. Don't screw the rest of the league over because you had a bad year.
~~If you own a stud, now would be the time to divest him to try to strengthen other positions. If you own Chris Johnson and not much more, sell him for a RB2 and a WR2 and maybe another player you can plug into your starting lineup.
~~You have very high priority on the waiver wire. If a nice gem suddenly pops up, get him...obviously.
~~You likely have some players you could drop so stash sleepers and hope they start producing in the next couple of weeks, or players ahead of them get injured. Some guys worth owning that you will find in your free agency pool include James Starks, LeGarrette Blount, Tashard Choice, Jason Snelling, Kevin Smith, Leon Washington, Kenneth Darby, Javon Ringer, Brandon LaFell, James Jones, Deon Butler, Josh Morgan, Demaryius Thomas, Anthony Gonzalez, Legedu Naanee, John Carlson, and Shawn Nelson.
Thoughts
~~The Falcons pass defense is no longer a major threat.
~~Brett Favre's career is pretty much over. Too many aches and pains, too many turnovers, on-field decisions becoming more poor, etc. At this rate, the Vikings may not welcome him back next year so willingly.
~~Kenny Britt can no longer be benched by any owner. He just absolutely torched what was the third best defense in limiting fantasy production to WRs after being benched for the first quarter for taking part in a bar brawl. That's right...7 receptions for 225 yards and 3 TDs...in three quarters! That's his fifth straight game with at least 1 TD. You know Chris Johnson has to love a valid deep threat to help keep defenses honest.
~~Don't bother picking up Lee Evans if he is available in your leagues.
~~I want to see the Redskins/Bears game on NFL Replay. You can't help but smile at the clownish plays and turnovers, unless you are a Redskins or Bears fan.
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