Overrated

When a player is overrated in fantasy football, he is not necessarily a bust. Overrated in the most general fantasy football terms means a player's ADP is higher than it should be by at least one round. Overrated players generally have a lot of hype surrounding them, or are big, well-established names in fantasy football who have detrimental circumstances effecting their value. They will be drafted higher than they should be.

You don't have to avoid these players, but don't draft them unless they fall at least a round further than their ADP (a couple of rounds further for the mid-rounders). There will be a few better options available at these player's ADPs...

Larry Fitzgerald
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: Adios Kurt Warner, adios QB stability
~I have already listed Matt Leinart in the bust category, so that prediction would naturally reciprocate throughout the passing offense. Fitz has been the biggest WR name over the last few years, and with good reason. He is a playmaker, has the best hands you will ever see, and does all the little things correct. However, calling him overrated is absolutely not a knock on his skills and abilities. He will be relying on Leinart to keep him in the stud category, and that is shaky at best. He will still perform like a low WR1/high WR2 for your team, but he is still being drafted like a top 5 stud WR. His stats will dip a bit for at least this year.

Miles Austin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.05/2.04
Primary Cause: Dez Bryant
~Austin emerged last season as Tony Romo's go-to guy. In fact, outside of Austin and Jason Witten, Romo didn't really have anyone else to throw to consistently. Roy Williams was a bum all year, and Patrick Crayton disappeared after his inspired week 1 performance. The Cowboys addressed their need at WR in the NFL Draft, not by drafting a complimentary counterpart to Austin, but by drafting a future stud WR who will threaten Austin's new found status as Romo's top target. Dez Bryant has looked like and carried himself as every bit of a future stud WR in the NFL so far. He was even given Michael Irvin's number 88 by Jerry Jones. Austin should still be Romo's top WR this year, but the quickly developing Bryant will be taking away some of those receptions. Also, the presence of Bryant has seemed to inspire Williams to step his game up and prove he still belongs in Dallas. That is just another reason to choose someone like Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, or Greg Jennings over Austin.

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.08/2.05
Primary Causes: committee situation, LT the TD vulture
~Greene can be an example of a player who is overrated and also a breakout candidate. Being a breakout candidate doesn't necessarily mean a player will establish himself as a top 5 player at his position. Breaking out can simply mean becoming a regular starter in anyone's fantasy lineup, and establishing themselves as desired commodities in fantasy football. Greene should get the lion's share of touches between himself, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Joe McKnight, but the size of that "lion's share" is what I question. It goes without saying that the passing down situations and RB receptions will go to LT and the rookie, not Greene. That alone limits his time on the field. LT could also be a TD vulture, since he is still reliable in goalline situations, and he will probably be petitioning the coaching staff to allow him to continue running for Emmitt Smith's rushing TD record. Another small concern is Greene's running style which is slightly upright, causing him to be a potential injury concern. Ultimately, the Jets bolster one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so Greene will be successful to an extent, but not like a second round pick should be.

LeSean McCoy
ADP (10-team/12-team): 4.05/3.11
Primary Causes: happy feet, no goalline work
~McCoy was drafted as the heir apparent to Brian Westbrook in the 2009 NFL Draft. Some even tried to compare him to Westbrook, unfairly. His size and running style are similar, but that is where the similarities end. McCoy tends to dance a bit more than he should while looking for the cutback lane and a big play. That tendency can cause inconsistent outputs from game to game, and a low yards per carry average in his down games. There is also a definite plan for Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver to handle practically all short-yardage and goalline situations. Expect McCoy's TD total to be low. He is still a great talent and capable of breaking off a big play at any time, but he will not be used as much as Westbrook was and will have a difficult time finding TDs.

Steve Smith NYG
ADP (10-team/12-team): 4.07/3.12
Primary Cause: Hakeem Nicks
~Remember I am referring to no-PPR, standard type formats. In PPR, Smith is not overrated whatsoever and will be a hot commodity. However, his above ADP is for no-PPR systems and is too high for my taste. Hakeem Nicks is due to emerge as early as the start of this season, and should be handling more deep routes than Smith will. Smith was supposed to be the standard possession WR last year, typically getting short to intermediate routes and very few TDs, but ended up being a big playmaker. This season, I expect an improved Nicks to inadvertently reduce Smith's numbers just a bit. Smith's reception total, big-plays, and TDs should all take a small dip this season. He is still a quality WR2, but don't overpay for him.

Chad Ochocinco
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.04/4.08
Primary Cause: more passing options
~Last season, Ochocinco reemerged as a low-end WR1/top WR2, even when the Bengals moved toward a more run oriented offense with Cedric Benson. The main reason, outside of being the top WR on the team, was because almost all the other receiving options were highly unreliable. Coming into this season, the Bengals have added the ball-hog Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant, and they have drafted Jermaine Gresham, the top TE from this years NFL draft class, and Jordan Shipley. That is plenty more options for Carson Palmer to choose from. Ochocinco should still be the top receiving option for the Bengals, but I doubt he will top 1000 receiving yards this season.

Philip Rivers
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.04/4.10
Primary Causes: lack of Vincent Jackson, rookie RB
~Losing Vincent Jackson really hurts the effectiveness of the Chargers passing offense. Jackson was Rivers' most reliable WR and best big-play receiver on the team. Without Jackson stretching the field and controlling the decisions of the safeties, Antonio Gates should see more defenders around him, causing Rivers to pass more to the likes of Malcom Floyd, Buster Davis, and Legedu Naanee. Having those WRs as your best options is a scary thought. To top that off, Rivers will have Ryan Mathews with him in the backfield quite often. Mathews is supposed to be the most well rounded RB from this year's draft class, including pass protection, but he is still a rookie and you can bet he will miss some blitz pick-ups.

Knowshon Moreno
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.09/5.01
Primary Causes: questionable vision/decision making, Broncos passing offense
~It would appear that Moreno is on his way to establishing another featured RB role in the face of the popular committee trend in the NFL. A lot of people are considering him a good draft target and have high expectations for him this season since his improved pass protection earned him a larger role. However, looking at his stats from last year, there is absolutely nothing inspiring. He never topped 100 rushing yards in any game, even while getting at least 18 carries in eight games. His yards per carry average was a paltry 3.8 after getting 247 runs. The main reason his running was par at best is because he was having a difficult time hitting the holes when they were there. Many times he seemed to just stick his nose forward when a cutback lane was available. Vision on the field is more difficult to correct since it is a more natural instinct, so I wouldn't expect his average to rise much, if at all. It certainly won't help that defenses will stack eight men in the box to stop him. A lack of Brandon Marshall should reduce Kyle Orton to what we remember from Chicago, at least until the rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker start making plays. I can't call Moreno a bust because he will still be a workhorse and have goalline opportunities, but I can think of at least five RBs with lower ADPs who I would rather have.
Edit: When I wrote this part about Moreno, his current ADP was 4.10/4.03. Since then, his tweaked hamstring apparently caused enough concern amongst fantasy mockers to cause his ADP to drop a bit. It certainly doesn't help that the Broncos brought in Justin Fargas in light of the plague of injuries amongst the Broncos RBs.

Vernon Davis
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.10/5.03
Primary Causes: Michael Crabtree, high TD per reception ratio
~Davis was the top receiving option for the 49ers last season, almost by default. Michael Crabtree held out into the regular season, and was well behind the curve. This season, Crabtree has a full offseason of learning and practice under his belt, and should emerge as the top receiving option in San Francisco. The 49ers will still be a run-first offense, which already limits the passes going around. Also, Josh Morgan is entering his third year and should be more improved. Finally, Davis did make a ton of big plays and had 13 TDs with only 73 receptions. 13 TDs is a rare accomplishment for a TE. Of the current top TEs in the NFL, only Antonio Gates reached 13 TDs...once back in 2004. The other rare accomplishment by Davis was the lesser amount of catches (78) it took him to get those 13 TDs. Put both rarities together and you have a guarantee he won't give an encore performance this season. Of course he is still a top TE, but don't expect him to be a top 3 TE. I like the TE options available after Davis gets drafted a bit too early.

Dez Bryant
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.04/7.03
Primary Cause: he is a rookie WR
~This ADP is a great spot to draft Bryant in a keeper league. In your standard redraft leagues, this is far too high. He is a rookie. The learning curve for rookie WRs is huge, even for talents like Bryant. Tony Romo will choose his other top options (Miles Austin and Jason Witten) before Bryant, while Bryant will be still figuring out the plays and coverages. He is a future stud, but fully expect him to have his struggles this season. He should not be drafted this high, where you are still drafting players meant to be regular starters for your fantasy team.