Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

2011 Rookie Rankings

Top 20

1. RB Mark Ingram NO
2. WR A.J. Green CIN
3. WR Julio Jones ATL
4. RB Mikel Leshoure DET
5. RB Ryan Williams ARI
6. RB Daniel Thomas MIA
7. WR Greg Little CLE
8. WR Randall Cobb GB
9. RB Delone Carter IND
10. QB Blaine Gabbert JAC
11. WR Jonathan Baldwin KC
12. WR Torrey Smith BAL
13. QB Cam Newton CAR
14. WR Leonard Hankerson WAS
15. QB Christian Ponder MIN
16. RB DeMarco Murray DAL
17. RB Roy Helu WAS
18. QB Jake Locker TEN
19. WR Vincent Brown SD

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Official Rookie/Free Agent Draft 2011

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=2011draft

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Mark Ingram, NO

Relentless and physical. He may not be the most electric RB prospect to enter the NFL draft, but he was made for the NFL. He possesses elite vision and awareness, sheds tackles, fully utilizes blockers, is strong and physical, and gives every ounce of effort with every run. He is not as fast or quick as you would hope for in a top prospect, but the same things were said about Emmitt Smith, who Ingram compares favorably to. Ingram was never a prototypical workhorse RB at Alabama, but I contend that just means he is more fresh. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (if he is not cut or traded) will not be forgotten about, but they will certainly need to step aside. Expect Ingram to be the starter, but don't expect him to be used as much as the likes of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson.

1.02 ~ WR Julio Jones, ATL

Athletic and fearless. I'm not really surprised that he got chosen before A.J. Green. Jones exploded at the combine

School's Out

Every season, mistakes are made, busts are drafted, bad strategies are adopted, bad habits are repeated, and lineup decisions that have been obsessively debated over for an entire week result in wrong decisions. There are certain mistakes that even the cagiest of fantasy veterans make, even though they try to avoid them. Somehow, certain bad habits seem to always haunt you, even though you try your best to avoid them. Every year after those bad habits and choices occur, you should take note...I mean literally write them down somewhere on your drafting and general fantasy football material, so you will have a blatant reminder to avoid those choices during your next draft and/or the following season.

Here is a short list of the more important things we learned or re-learned from this fantasy football season...

~~Never again will I target or consider drafting Steve Smith of the Panthers unless by some major transaction he ends up with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees as his QB. I drafted him in one of my leagues (12-team, PPR) at pick 3.07, and even though I wasn't crazy about drafting him, the top tiers of WRs ran dry quickly and he seemed like the best available WR on the board. What kills me most is that even though I targeted (and drafted) Joseph Addai in the fourth round, Hakeem Nicks was on the board when I picked Smith.

~~Although I targeted less than half of these players in my 2010 drafts, I will put Steven Jackson, Randy Moss (obviously), Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Carson Palmer in that conversation of no longer targeting...ever again.

~~Don't take a defense early. Quality undrafted waiver wire pickups this season included the Raiders, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, Chiefs, Falcons, and Cardinals. Instead of burning a mid-round pick on the Vikings, Cowboys, or Ravens you could have taken a chance on some quality sleeper options like Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Jay Cutler, or Matt Ryan. Every season, there are always several free agent defenses that quickly play themselves into the top 10 of fantasy defenses.

~~Kickers are solely reserved for your last round. This is more of a reminder than something that