Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.
Here are this year's breakouts...
Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.
Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/5.02
Primary Reasons for Breakout: 2009 hot...very hot season-ending performances, great hands, great athleticism, Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver fading
~Predicting Finley to breakout is stating the obvious. His second half of last season was far and away the best second half of any TE in the NFL. With Donald Driver fading away, and Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball down the field often, the young guys, specifically Finley, will step up to be on the receiving end. His great hands and athleticism will cause him to be a regular target of Rodgers for many years.
Hakeem Nicks
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.04/5.05
Primary Reasons for Breakout: best hands, deep threat, great speed and quickness, gets open easily, playmaker, maturing very quickly
Felix Jones
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.01/5.11
Primary Reasons for Breakout: total package--speed, quickness, agility, runs hard, great hands, can pass block--Jerry Jones wants to be more committed to him, Marion Barber struggled last year
Pierre Garcon
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.02/6.02
Primary Reasons for Breakout: starting WR opposite of Reggie Wayne, quick and fast, playmaker, will flourish even with competition from Anthony Gonzalez
~For those of you concerned that Garcon can't breakout because Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark will continue to put up studly numbers, remember how long both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were putting up elite numbers in the same seasons? For that matter, remember when Brandon Stokley broke out as the third WR for Peyton Manning? The Colts supposedly recommitted to the run, but who calls the plays on the field?
Kevin Kolb
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.02/6.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: huge numbers in only two NFL starts last season, excellent receiving options, solid running game to relieve pressure, Andy Reid still like to pass a lot
Joe Flacco
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.07/7.04
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Anquan Boldin, enormous and accurate arm, elite potential, third year in the league, Ray Rice, new TE weapons
~I talk about Flacco being in the third year of his NFL career, not because it is some magical number, but because the QB position has the biggest learning curve when transitioning from college to the NFL. You will rarely see QBs with stud potential have great success in the first two years of their career, and sometimes it can take four or five years. Flacco will not only be a stud, but he has elite potential. Add Anquan Boldin, two new TE weapons, and have a certain recent breakout RB behind him, and breaking out is imminent
Matt Ryan
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.02/8.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, third year of experience, Michael Turner
~He will forever be compared to Joe Flacco throughout his entire career because they are from the same draft class and both had unusually great rookie campaigns. Ryan also possesses elite potential and has two great weapons in the passing game with Roddy White and the ageless Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner should have a great season, so defenses will be forced to be honest.
Leon Washington
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.06/12.06
Primary Reasons for Breakout: fully recovered from injury, better than Justin Forsett, playmaker extraordinaire, determination, nice offensive line
~Leon has made a full recovery from the nasty leg break he suffered last season. He has been one of my favorite sleeper picks over the last few years, but he was never in the right situation to be a potential breakout. Thomas Jones was considered to be the primary, grinding RB for the Jets from 2007 until the conclusion of last season, so Leon had to carve himself out a niche as the third-down RB and punt returner. Leon has always been a workout warrior and has kept himself in the best possible shape. His size and skill-set are directly comparable to Brian Westbrook, and if you compare highlights of the two players, you can't tell the difference. Everybody is predicting Justin Forsett to have the most touches of all the RBs, but that is because Leon has been recovering from his leg break this whole time. Leon could not practice in training camp, so of course there would not have been any news on him. Forsett's size worries me greatly, and he is also more of a third-down RB like Leon. Between the two players, I contend Leon can handle a bigger load and run harder. Once he starts making huge plays on the field, why would Pete Carroll want to take him out other than to get him a little rest? I'm not predicting Leon to be a workhorse RB, but I definitely see him averaging 15-18 touches per game.
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