Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

Underrated

I will now focus on the players who have good draft value. Underrated, sleeper, and breakout players are all excellent draft targets. Unfortunately, many of them will be drafted to other teams, so pick your favorites out of these groups and target them one to two rounds earlier than their ADP. The differences between the three groups are distinct, but can be easily confused.

The first of the value groups are the underrated players. These players are generally not given the respect they deserve. This group can include players returning from a major injury, players who can increase production from last season (but not in breakout fashion), players in a new system more complimentary to their skills, and overlooked players flying under the radar. These players won't necessarily emerge this season (or have already emerged), and likewise, they will not necessarily have unexpected success and drastically overachieve like a successful sleeper would. Simply put, the uncertainly surrounding these players cause them to fall further in drafts then they should.

These are the players who are underrated and should perform a bit better than their ADP suggests...

Joseph Addai
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/4.12
Primary Causes of Concern: 2008 bust, pass-heavy offense, Donald Brown
Reasons for Good Value: receiving threat, red-zone threat
~Did you know that Addai was actually a top ten RB in standard no-PPR scoring last season, recovering from his busted 2008 season? He was even better in PPR systems. Many people have not taken notice of that, primarily because Addai was well below 1000 rushing yards (828) on the year. However, he did rush for 10 TDs, caught 3 more, and also racked up 51 receptions for 336 yards. The only RBs who had more total TDs than Addai were Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, and Willis McGahee. Addai will continue to score the TDs this season, especially since the Colts coaching staff is expressing their renewed commitment to the running game. Last year, Addai shed his bust label from 2008, and was heavily involved in the pass-heavy Colts offense. Donald Brown may end up being