I will now focus on the players who have good draft value. Underrated, sleeper, and breakout players are all excellent draft targets. Unfortunately, many of them will be drafted to other teams, so pick your favorites out of these groups and target them one to two rounds earlier than their ADP. The differences between the three groups are distinct, but can be easily confused.
The first of the value groups are the underrated players. These players are generally not given the respect they deserve. This group can include players returning from a major injury, players who can increase production from last season (but not in breakout fashion), players in a new system more complimentary to their skills, and overlooked players flying under the radar. These players won't necessarily emerge this season (or have already emerged), and likewise, they will not necessarily have unexpected success and drastically overachieve like a successful sleeper would. Simply put, the uncertainly surrounding these players cause them to fall further in drafts then they should.
These are the players who are underrated and should perform a bit better than their ADP suggests...
Joseph Addai
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/4.12
Primary Causes of Concern: 2008 bust, pass-heavy offense, Donald Brown
Reasons for Good Value: receiving threat, red-zone threat
~Did you know that Addai was actually a top ten RB in standard no-PPR scoring last season, recovering from his busted 2008 season? He was even better in PPR systems. Many people have not taken notice of that, primarily because Addai was well below 1000 rushing yards (828) on the year. However, he did rush for 10 TDs, caught 3 more, and also racked up 51 receptions for 336 yards. The only RBs who had more total TDs than Addai were Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, and Willis McGahee. Addai will continue to score the TDs this season, especially since the Colts coaching staff is expressing their renewed commitment to the running game. Last year, Addai shed his bust label from 2008, and was heavily involved in the pass-heavy Colts offense. Donald Brown may end up being the future top RB in Indy, but Addai is still the top dog, even though he is in the last year of his current contract.
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.01/5.01
Primary Causes of Concern: injury concern, recovery concern, Ricky Williams
Reasons for Good Value: RB1 potential, recovering well
~Brown's fantasy value has been marred by three major injuries, and one was just a broken hand which caused him to only miss three weeks in 2006. Tearing his ACL in 2007 was the worst of his injuries and put him on the path of injury concern by fantasy owners. Currently, he has recovered well from his most recent injury, the Lisfranc fracture he suffered in his foot last November. Lisfranc fractures are not known for causing long-term effects, even though they occur in a difficult part of the foot. Athletes who suffer a Lisfranc fracture in their foot will typically be fully recovered within nine months from the injury. Since Brown spent the entire offseason rehabbing from the injury, he may get off to a slow start from simply being a little bit rusty, but I would expect him to be back to full speed within a few games. When he is at full strength, he is a very good playmaker, versatile out of the Wildcat formation, and has RB1 potential. Ricky Williams should still be involved in the offense, but Brown will reassume the primary role.
Dwayne Bowe
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.10/5.02
Primary Causes of Concern: 2009 bust, character issues
Reasons for Good Value: Charlie Weis, renewed commitment
~Bowe had a rocky season last year. The entire offense struggled, he got suspended for using performance enhancing substances, and never made any sort of impact upon his return. This offseason, Bowe has seemed to rededicate himself by dropping weight and showing up well conditioned during the OTAs and into the preseason. The Chiefs have also hired the former Patriots offensive guru, Charlie Weis. Weis has a penchant for emphasizing the passing game, and has been working closely with Matt Cassell to develop him further. If Cassell improves and the offense becomes more well-designed and pass-oriented, that could further boost Bowe's value.
Brent Celek
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.03/6.03
Primary Cause of Concern: uncertainty with Kevin Kolb
Reason for Good Value: more rapport with Kolb than with Donovan McNabb
~Celek broke out last season with Donovan McNabb at the helm. After proving himself as an integral part of the Eagles pass-happy offense and a regular starter in fantasy lineups, he is firmly entrenched as a TE1. One more year as a top five TE will prove that he is truly a fantasy stud. McNabb got traded to the Redskins during the offseason, and Kevin Kolb takes over with a lot of perceived uncertainty surrounding him. However, Kolb should actually improve Celek's value. In the two games last season that Kolb started in place of the injured McNabb, Celek received 8 passes for 104 yards each game with a TD in one. He had better numbers in only one out of the other fourteen games when he was receiving passes from McNabb. After being the fourth best TE in standard no-PPR fantasy leagues last season, he has a chance to be even better this season. Even though there are five TEs with a better ADP than Celek (I'm sure you can name them without even thinking about it), it surprises me that he is drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds. According to the ADP data, he was drafted as low as the ninth round! That's awesome value for a top five TE, soon to be stud TE.
Brett Favre
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.08/7.08
Primary Cause of Concern: to retire...
Reason for Good Value: ...or not to retire
~He's back. Yippie ki yay. His ADP should now improve, and rightfully so. He was a top five QB in most standard scoring systems last season, in what was widely considered his best season as an NFL QB, and he shouldn't be very far from that this year.
Carson Palmer
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.06/9.05
Primary Causes of Concern: 2009 slump, running game emphasis
Reason for Good Value: added receiving options
~Laveranues Coles was signed to take the place of the departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh last season. The difference between those two players were like night and day for Palmer. Coles was a miserable bust, and just couldn't build a rapport with Palmer or make plays. Andre Caldwell picked up the slack here and there, but was never a big difference maker, nor was he consistent. Before Chris Henry was put on IR in November with a broken arm, he wasn't making any major contributions to the passing offense either. Chad Ochocinco was pretty much the only Bengals receiver to step his game up, and he saw a lot of defensive pressure in the process. With the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham, Palmer has every chance in the world to recover to his 2005 form. We should certainly see a better Palmer from last year.
Visanthe Shaincoe
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.10/8.11
Primary Cause of Concern: not a popular TE name
Reason for Good Value: Brett Favre's endzone target
~Brett Favre is notorious for targeting his TEs in the endzone. He proved that last year with Shaincoe's 10 redzone TDs out of 16 rezone targets and 12 receptions. Shaincoe won't rack up big yardage, but you can rely on his TDs with Favre around.
Chris Cooley
ADP (10-team/12-team): 11.09/10.02
Primary Causes of Concern: Fred Davis, returning from injury
Reasons for Good Value: Mike Shannahan, no degradation of skills or usage
~When Cooley broke his ankle midway through last season, Fred Davis emerged as a very reliable receiving target and a good redzone threat. Now that Cooley is back, he is suddenly an afterthought for many fantasy owners, mainly because of the discovery of Davis. First of all, Cooley's broken ankle is of no concern, as he has fully recovered. Second, he is a solid blocker, Davis is not. Cooley will be the TE on the field for pretty much every single-TE formation. Mike Shannahan has always emphasized the use of TEs as a receiver in his system, and he is likely to utilize two-TE sets in order to maximize both of his TE talents. Think of Cooley as the primary receiving TE and Davis as more of a slot WR. Cooley will reestablish himself as one of the most consistent and reliable TEs, like he was before the injury.
Tim Hightower
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.04/10.06
Primary Cause of Concern: Beanie Wells
Reasons for Good Value: receptions, goalline duties
~Beanie Wells is due to breakout this season. Hightower is considered Wells' backup, but will still have a prominent role in the offense, specifically as the third-down and short-yardage specialist. In other words, he will get a lot of receptions and steal TDs from Wells. Last season, Hightower was targeted 80 times and came up with 63 receptions. I don't expect that to change with Matt Leinart taking over, because the uncertain QB will be looking for a safety valve often. His best safety valve will be Hightower.
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.02/11.08
Primary Cause of Concern: Lions...enough said
Reasons for Good Value: new offensive weapons, a year of experience
As a fan of the Lions, I am naturally skeptical of any QB they acquire, via draft, free agency, or trade, to be their future. The Lions have been an absolute wasteland of overrated and busted QBs ever since Bobby Layne. However, Stafford shows more promise than any Lions QB I have personally seen in my lifetime. It also helps to have Calvin Johnson, a big athletic freak of nature who can catch any pass, including the errant ones, and can turn 5 yard slants into long TD plays. With one year of experience under his belt and the additions of Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best, he won't be any worse than a top backup QB for your fantasy team this year. He has looked good so far in camp, and should very well outperform his current ADP.
Mohammad Massaquoi
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.06/12.01
Primary Causes of Concern: his QB, bad team
Reasons for Good Value: Browns best WR, high percentage of team targets
~I did not like Jake Delhomme in Carolina during the couple of seasons I owned Steve Smith in a couple of my leagues. That may be the sentiments of every Smith owner everywhere, but Delhomme was still the man responsible for making sure Smith was a stud. Massaquoi should now be the top receiver for Delhomme in Cleveland. I am in no way comparing Massaquoi to Smith, but last season as a rookie he was targeted 95 times, which was 23 percent of the team targets all season. Not too bad for a rookie, and not too bad with Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson as his QBs. With a year under his belt, he should continue that trend into this year under Delhomme. For that matter, Delhomme should be revitalized with his new start, after his dismal performance last season in Carolina, and should play well enough to help Massaquoi improve on his rookie year.
Jabar Gaffney
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.07/12.01
Primary Causes of Concern: the rookie WRs, never being a primary WR
Reason for Good Value: potential top receiving option
~Josh McDaniels continued to dismantle the Broncos offense during the offseason. Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler got shipped out of town leaving less receiving options and no true WR1 on the team. McDaniels tried hard to recover from his mistakes by drafting Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in order to fill the void at WR. So who benefits from these sudden and immature roster moves, dumping one of the NFL's best WRs and a very good pass-catching TE? Gaffney does. During the final two regular season games last year, he caught a combined 21 passes for 282 yards and 2 TDs. That's a statement. While the rookies develop, Gaffney should emerge as the top WR, if not second to Eddie Royal. Thomas is being groomed to be the number one WR in Denver, but he has struggled with injuries and should take a while to get involved in the offense. I would've listed Gaffney as a sleeper, but McDaniels will undoubtedly be trying his best to get both Thomas and Decker involved. They should both get more action midway through the season, once their feet are wet.
Davone Bess
ADP (10-team/12-team): after round 15/13.12
Primary Causes of Concern: low yardage output, low TD output
Reasons for Good Value: high amount of targets/receptions, Brandon Marshall
~Last season, Bess was targeted 113 times and caught 76 of those passes. That is more targets than stud WRs Vincent Jackson (107) and Marques Colston (106) had. However, Bess primarily ran short underneath routes, and it showed with his pedestrian 758 yards and 10.0 yards per catch (YPC) average. This season, Brandon Marshall is the primary receiving threat who will stretch the field and draw the attention of at least one safety. Bess will still play a possession role, probably from the slot, and I expect his targets to stay above 100. With Marshall on the field drawing attention, Bess' YPC will increase along with his total yards, and he may be able to break for a few more TDs. He is a decent sleeper option for PPR leagues, but simply remains underrated in no-PPR formats.
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