In this following section, I have taken note of players who have missed a large portion of the season, typically half or more, due to injuries, ending the season on IR. Many of these players
will have indeed been forgotten about in your next drafts, and can be drafted lower than their value. However, some of them are well established names and won't be forgotten (Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Chris Cooley), and some of them won't necessarily be great draft options (I'm looking squarely at you, Portis). I'm just simply listing all of those players, who will have at least some fantasy impact this next season, falling under the aforementioned injury criteria.
Ronnie Brown
~~He missed a large portion of a season, once again, due to a major injury in 2009. In 2006, he broke his hand, causing him to miss the games from week 13-15 during the most crucial time for fantasy owners. In 2007, he tore his ACL midway through the season, causing him to miss the remainder of what started as a very impressive breakout year. Then in this season, he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in right foot during week 10, causing him to find the IR for the second time in three years. Fortunately, Lisfranc fractures are not career threatening, and they can be fully recovered from in nine months. Brown should be fully healthy by the start of this next season, but this recent injury further magnifies his inability to stay healthy. Being considered more injury prone by fantasy owners will cause his draft value to dip a bit.
Clinton Portis
~~Here is another player who has had constant nagging injuries, mainly due to his physical running style. He hasn't always missed games due to his injuries, but there have been many times where he played dinged up, and his stats would reflect that. I will look back as early as 2006, which is the last time before this season he missed games due to injury. He started off the 2006 preseason with his famous tackle of Bengals CB Keiwan Ratliff--returning an intercepted pass--which separated his shoulder and put his health for the start of that regular season in doubt. That shoulder only caused him to miss one regular season game. However, the broken hand he suffered midway through that season required surgery and forced him onto IR. He played in all sixteen regular season games in 2007, but had a slow start and an average first half of the season, mainly due to knee issues. He also played in every game in 2008, absolutely exploding throughout the first half of the season as one of the best fantasy RBs during that period. However, going into the second half of that season, Portis struggled, kept getting dinged up with several injuries each week listed on the injury reports, missed most practices just to try and heal, and topped all that off with a sprained MCL, which made him a non-factor the rest of that season. Coming into this season, there was already a lot of uncertainty about his health issues. He didn't help his fantasy cause when he started the year struggling and once again filling up the injury reports with his name. After having just about every part of his body listed on the injury report, he received his worst injury of the season, sustaining a real nasty concussion in week 9. After seeing doctors and specialists throughout the following couple of weeks, he eventually had to find the IR. A lot of people might get excited about the prospects of Mike Shannahan and Portis being reunited and the running game benefiting, but Portis' injury history, being overused during the 2007-08 seasons, and surpassing 2500 career touches early this next season are all signs steering me clear of him.
Anthony Gonzalez
~~He was supposed to be Peyton Manning's no. 2 WR, but in week 1, he strained his PCL when he made a cut on a route, untouched by any defender. His prognosis for recovery was very vague in the beginning, but ultimately it wasn't expected to take longer than eight weeks. Around the eight week mark, Gonzalez kept trying to rush himself back into practice and kept having setbacks. He ended up requiring arthroscopic surgery to clean the knee out, and that helped him eventually find his way to the IR. He should be fully healthy for the start of this next season, but he will have some serious competition, since both Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged in Gonzalez's absence. I would expect both Garcon and Collie to be rated higher than Gonzalez on a lot of draft sheets, which would therefore give Gonzalez the better draft value of all three guys.
~~Some of you who have followed my work and know my opinions will probably think that I have a man-crush on Leon. I guess I kind of did, until he broke his leg with a nasty compound fracture in week 7, causing him to be immediately placed on IR. Both his tibia and fibula got pretty much snapped in half when a defender rolled up on his leg during his first carry of the game. Before that injury, I had fully expected the Jets to part ways with Thomas Jones before having to pay him a $5.8 million salary/bonus for this next season. I strongly believed that Washington would have been the starter, with Shonn Greene becoming the secondary option in a committee backfield. Washington has always been a workout warrior, has some of the best agility and footwork of any player at any position in the NFL, and has been compared to Brian Westbrook with not only his skills, but with his passion prove himself worthy of a full-time starting RB role. This broken leg may have been a small setback, allowing Greene to emerge, but Jones' departure means that Washington will return with no less than the role he already possessed as the change-of-pace/third down RB, as long as the Jets likely retain the restricted free agent. Greene should step right into the role Jones had, but Washington will still be a big factor in the Jets' running game, and will once again hold excellent draft value.
Chris Cooley
~~He has been one of the most consistent TEs from the start of his career in 2004 up until he broke his ankle during week 7 of this season. In 2004-2007 he scored no less than 6 TDs. In 2005-2008 he tallied up yardage totals from the mid-700s to the mid-800s. During his short campaign this season, he was on pace to post at least similar yardage totals, even with Jim Zorn's offense struggling miserably. After he broke his ankle, the second year TE Fred Davis promptly emerged. Many would think that Davis' performance during the second half of the season would cause the returning Cooley's numbers to take a dip, but I contend that Cooley's numbers will be consistently identical with what he has done throughout his career. Mike Shannahan is not only notorious for developing RBs, but he is also well known to throw to the TEs. He utilized Shannan Sharpe's full potential and was developing Tony Scheffler nicely until he got fired. The Redskins have a bit of unreliability at the WR position, with Santana Moss disappearing for half the games of every season and Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly still developing, not to mention they all have to learn a new playbook. What you will end up seeing is lot of two TE sets with Cooley still being the primary receiving TE option.
Owen Daniels
~~He was by far the best TE in fantasy up until he tore his ACL in week 8. He was probably the best surprise this season for his owners, including myself. Even after suffering a torn ACL, he will still be a desired commodity by many owners in your next drafts. Torn ligaments can sometimes involve a difficult recovery for NFL players, but TEs don't require as much speed and agility in their legs as a RB would. The one big red flag here is that this is the third time Daniels has suffered a torn ACL in his playing career. However, this is the first time he has suffered any kind of major injury in his NFL career, which began in 2006. He should be fully recovered by the start of this next season, and even though he may start off a bit slow, he should still find at least solid production as Matt Schaub's second option in the passing offense. I am curious as to how this injury will affect his draft position. There may be some owners willing to take him early, maybe as early as the third TE off the board, but most owners will still be wary of his ACL recovery. I think he can still perform as a top five TE for this next season, and if he happens to slide in your drafts, he can end up being a nice target.
James Davis
~~Coming into the season, Jamal Lewis was the starting RB for the Browns and Jerome Harrison was meant to be the third down RB with a few extra carries to occasionally spell Lewis. The rookie Davis was drafted in the sixth round to backup and eventually inherit at least part of the aging Lewis' role in the Browns offense. Coming out of Clemson, he was more of a smallish power RB, but during the preseason, he showed quick feet, great acceleration through holes at the line of scrimmage, and pretty good speed. During week 1 he suffered an injury to his shoulder while absorbing a hit, causing him to miss week 2. He got forced back into action week 3 when Lewis was sidelined with an injury, but apparently his shoulder still wasn't in good shape because he struggled in that game and ended up being placed on IR before the following week 4 game. Harrison ended his season in breakout fashion and will be the starter this next season. However, Harrison is not built to take a full workhorse load, so Davis should take over short-yardage and spelling duties in a committee situation with Harrison. Many people will have certainly forgot about him, so he will be an excellent draft target toward the end of deeper leagues, as long as the Browns don't add an experienced veteran RB.
~~Donnie Avery was supposed to be the top dog of the Rams' WR corp coming into the season. However, the third year WR Robinson--acquired in a trade from the Falcons before the 2009 NFL draft--stepped right in and immediately became Marc Bulger's go-to guy, while Avery struggled early. Robinson had his season ended abruptly when he broke his leg in week 3. Before breaking his leg, he had 11 catches, 141 yards and 1 TD in the first two games of the season. These stats were acquired on what was a god-awful offense with a struggling QB in Bulger. Even though Robinson was well on his way to being the Rams' best WR, finding IR so early in the year will cause many fantasy owners to easily forget about him and his performances. Avery will be entering his third year in the NFL this next season, and will certainly be talked about by many "experts" more than Robinson. He will be a hot mid-late round sleeper commodity in some drafts, and will almost certainly be drafted before Robinson, which gives Robinson excellent draft value. However, gauge your expectations depending on who the Rams' starting QB will be, and on the fact that Robinson also suffered multiple injuries last season with the Falcons, causing him to be labeled as injury prone.
Andre Brown
~~The Giants drafted this North Carolina State product in the wake of Derrick Ward signing with the Buccaneers last offseason. Brown was considered by many to be very comparable to Ward, possessing a very similar physical build, running style, and pass-catching ability. Even though Ahmad Bradshaw had proven himself to be worthy of the scatback/change-of-pace role, the Giants were very successful with their three-headed rushing attack from 2008, and hoped to duplicate that format by drafting Brown to replace Ward. Unfortunately, Brown's high hopes of playing scatback behind Brandon Jacobs were cut really short when he tore his achilles tendon early in the preseason. He is the perfect example of an injured player who will be completely forgotten by most fantasy footballers who are not diligent with their preparation during the offseason, especially since Bradshaw filled the role quite well, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Given Jacob's ineffectiveness this season, I think we will see Bradshaw playing the same role, but Brown will be the passing down RB, and could cut into Jacob's carries. If all three guys stay healthy, the Giants should return right back to their successful three-headed rushing attack that found much success in 2008.
Troy Williamson/Jarrett Dillard
~~Dillard was a rookie out of Rice, while Williamson was emerging from the depths of his busted career. I have these two Jaguars grouped together because with Tory Holt's departure from the team, two of either these guys or Mike Thomas will play prominent roles in the passing offense. When the season started, Williamson had jumped ahead of Mike Sims-Walker on the depth chart because Sims-Walker was struggling to recover from an ankle injury he suffered early in the preseason. Williamson's season was unceremoniously ended when he tore his labrum in his shoulder during week 2. Dillard was the second WR drafted by the Jaguars (Mike Thomas was the first) in the 2009 NFL draft. He had a solid preseason, but once the regular season began, he looked more like the project that the Jaguars drafted him as, up until he broke his ankle in week 10. Pending any free agent or rookie WRs being added to the team this offseason, it looks like their lineup will be Sims-Walker and Williamson at wide-out and Thomas in the slot, with Dillard being the forth option. I wouldn't suggest drafting either Williamson or Dillard, but watch them on your waiver wires during this next season. Dillard more than likely won't be a factor for another year or so, but an injury to either the injury prone Sims-Walker or Williamson can quickly change that.
Brandon Pettigrew
~~This rookie TE was starting to become the standard "best friend" to the rookie Matthew Stafford on the field. All that development came to an end with a torn ACL suffered in week 12 at the end of November. Having a major injury like a torn ligament occur that late in the season is not a good sign for the start of this next season, especially since the surgery didn't take place until December 19. Those injuries typically take nine months of recovery, which would mean he could miss all of training camp and preseason. Pettigrew might even start 2010 on the PUP. His effectiveness may be limited this next season, but keep an eye on him on the waiver wire because he has a lot of potential.
Post-season Exercises Summary
All of the players I have written about during this series of articles have one major common thread--their performances or they themselves can be easily forgotten about by many fantasy football owners by the time your drafts take place. Performing post-season/post-Superbowl exercises, reminding yourself of these types of players, preferably writing a list down somewhere, can give you a leg-up on your competition with extra value picks to target. My list of sleepers for this next season will by no means be comprised entirely from these players, but almost certainly no less than half of my sleepers will come from these players.
The players from these five articles I like the most for this next season to either be breakout candidates or great value picks are Shonn Greene (if the Jets do not resign Thomas Jones), Chris Wells, Robert Meachem, Felix Jones, JerMicheal Finley, Alex Smith, Chad Henne (pending the addition of a strong WR), Matt Moore, Ronnie Brown, Leon Washington (surprise), Owen Daniels, and James Davis.
What's your feeling on Shonn Greene and Leon Washington now that the Jets have brought in LT?
ReplyDeleteI still like Greene as a breakout candidate, but look for LT to steal TDs from him. Greene won't necessarily be the workhorse, but I expect him to take about 60-65 percent of all RB touches.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Leon goes from being a perennial sleeper to having no more than the value of a third-down, change of pace RB. He has yet to sign his second round tender offer, but there are no signs of him wanting out of New York...yet.
LT has lost his step and won't recover it in New York. Rex Ryan will probably still give him no less than 8-10 touches per game out of respect for the future hall of famer, but his ypc will still be low and his fantasy value will still be shot, outside of the TDs.
One potential scenario that could play out involves Greene getting injured and missing time. It is possible because his bruising and slightly upright style of running automatically makes him an injury concern (not injury prone). If he misses time, LT and Leon would probably split time relatively even.