Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate the Colts, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs, and Titans. Turnover ratios on the negative side eliminate the Chargers (-9), Giants (-5), Saints (-4), and Ravens (-1). That leaves the Jets, Steelers, Packers, and Eagles. Now these four remaining teams seem like logical picks for the Championship games, but there are way too many factors involved to make picks based on numbers. The turnover ratio stats cause the Patriots and Falcons to be back in the discussion because their ratios are in the top four in the NFL. One last remaining factor, which can cause mid-season predictions to be more crap shoots than anything is the simple fact that teams can turn things around in the second half of the season and into the playoffs (or missing the playoffs). Besides, once teams are into the playoffs, it's a whole new season for them. New plays open up and the intensity level raises to ridiculous heights. Regular season numbers are mainly thrown out when discussing playoff performances.

All the BS and talking out of the way, here are my stone cold predictions.

NFC Championship ~ Falcons v Eagles
AFC Championship ~ Jets v Patriots
Superbowl XLV ~ Eagles v Jets
Superbowl Winner ~ The New York Jets

So you may say I am drinking some serious Kool-Aid. I took a popular pick with the Jets and am riding the hottest player in the NFL in Michael Vick. You're right. Comparing them against the competition, these two teams have the best chance of playing in the Superbowl, in my humble opinion.

The Jets have Darelle Revis at full strength (he shut down Calvin Johnson in week 9), which makes their defense twice as good, their running game is very strong, and Mark Sanchez is taking care of the roc.

I did not pick the Eagles because of the Michael Vick factor, but he was the deciding factor. Their defense is very strong and they have two RBs who can make big plays.

I still can't help to think that the Bears are going to pull off a surprise upset or two, and you can never count out Peyton Manning.

Playoff Run Trades

Buy Low (or quality pickups): Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Chad Henne, Felix Jones, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Mike Williams TB, Randy Moss/Kenny Britt, Steve Smith CAR (ugh...very easy schedule remaining), Marques Colston/Lance Moore, Owen Daniels, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham

Sell High (or just sell): Drew Brees, Lesean McCoy, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Brandon Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Johnny Knox, Braylon Edwards/Santonio Holmes, Mike Williams SEA, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace/Hines Ward, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Kellen Winslow, Visante Shaincoe, Marcedes Lewis

Buy High (top players with easy remaining schedules): Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Hakeem Nicks, Deshaun Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Zach Miller OAK

Thoughts

~~I may have been wrong about Arian Foster. In week 9, he absolutely torched what was one of the most formidable run defenses in the Chargers. he ran 27 times for 127 yards and 2 TDs, and he also caught 4 passes for 70 yards. He still has to face the Jets, the Titans twice, and the Ravens, who are all strong against the run, but after he man-handled the Chargers, I wouldn't be so worried about those matchups.

~~Here is a trend to take note of...the Lions score a lot of points and have a lot of fantasy relevant players like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford/Shaun Hill, Brandon Pettegrew, Jahvid Best, and the Lions defense. That's a new feeling for everyone. Calvin will always be a stud, Best will have a hard time finding the bench, Pettigrew has been consistently good, Hill should continue where Stafford left off, and the Lions defense makes opportunistic plays and applies heavy pressure on opposing QBs.

~~Staying with the Lions and trends, Kevin Smith is back, fully healthy, and splitting carries with Jahvid Best.

~~Exactly when did the Raiders decide to be good again on both sides of the ball?

~~Time for James Starks to see the field within the next couple of weeks. He should start to open some eyes just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Stash him on your bench, especially if you need RB help into the playoffs.