Analyze This ~ Week 1

I am really furious that NFL Redzone is now a service I have to pay for. The cable network I pay for made progress before last season when arbitration caused the NFL Network to be included in the regular lineup. Last season that included the NFL Redzone channel, owned and operated by NFL Network. This year, I find out the hard way that I no longer have NFL Redzone in my regular lineup. Instead of enjoying every minute of football I can possibly cram into my head from the first kickoff, while paying close attention to my revamped Lions team, I have to spend about twenty minutes on the phone with my ridiculous cable network to work out the financial details of how I can get the NFL Redzone without paying an extra $8 per month. Needless to say, I will not go an NFL season without my NFL Redzone channel. Have I mentioned that I love what they do?

Typically, the first one or two weeks of the NFL season involves a lot of fluky plays, performances, and outcomes. This first week was certainly no different. Players are jacked up on adrenaline, certain plays still have kinks to work out, timing between QBs and receivers require fine tuning, and generally, teams need to find their identity. I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning score over 20 fantasy football (FF) points, or how rare it is to see Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and Ray Rice have a 2.2 or less yards per carry average in any given game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Anquan Boldin ~ 110 receiving yards
Jay Cutler ~ over 300 passing yards (372 total)
Eddie Royal ~ 8 catches (10 targets)
Roddy White ~ 12+ targets (23 total!!!)
Visanthe Shaincoe ~ TDs (1 total)
Chris Cooley ~ 6 catches (9 targets)
Dez Bryant ~ 12 targets (8 catches)
Mike Wallace ~ 31.0 yards per catch average
Todd Heap ~ 6 catches (11 targets)
Matt Forte ~ 2.9 yards per run average
Knowshon Moreno ~ 60 rushing yards
Justin Forsett ~ 10 total touches (7 runs/3 catches)
Peyton Hillis & Jerome Harrison ~ 50/50 split of carries (9 each)
Reggie Bush ~ 7 touches (2 runs/5 catches)
Lee Evans ~ 3 FF points

...and Much Less of This

Arian Foster ~ 33 rushing attempts
Matt Forte ~ 151 receiving yards
Mike Vick ~ 21 FF points
Austin Collie ~ 11 catches (12 targets)
Rashard Mendenhall ~ 5.5 yards per run average
Legedu Naanee ~ 110 receiving yards
Mark Clayton ~ 10 catches (16 targets)
Marcedes Lewis ~ 2 TDs
Brandon Lloyd ~ 117 receiving yards
Matt Schaub ~ 9/17 completions, 107 yards
Pierre Garcon ~ 43 receiving yards
Jermichael Finley ~ 4 FF points
Robert Meachem ~ 33 receiving yards/0 TDs
Carson Palmer ~ 50 pass attempts
Cedric Benson ~ 43 rushing yards/2.9 yards per run average
Johnny Knox ~ 5 FF points
C.J. Spiller ~ 6 rushing yards

Thoughts

~As a Lions fan, I am thoroughly disgusted with the debacle surrounding the Calvin Johnson TD...I guess I have to call it "the TD that never was." What ever happened to the simple idea of making a catch? Since when does a simple catch involve progressions, movements outside of the actual catch, and twenty different ideas of what ball control is? Since when is there an "entire process" involved in a touchdown catch outside of when the catch is made, the ball is controlled, both feet (then leg, then hip, then the left hand, then football still possessed in right hand) are down? Why do certain things in the NFL have to be ridiculously overcomplicated for no reason? This is a pure example of the kind of luck Lions fans have suffered through over the last....well, my whole life. That would have been called a TD if it was Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne.

~OK, that was more of a rant. I understand the whole process of ball control involved in a catch, but that call was the most nitpickingist crap I have ever seen in the NFL, even more so than the "tuck rule."

~Arian Foster has exposed the perpetually average Colts run defense. Here's a clue for the rest of the Colts' opponents: the Colts will continue to bolster a smallish, fast defense geared toward defending against the pass, as long as Peyton Manning is barking out audibles in an almost poetic cadence on the offensive side. The Colts with Peyton Manning always expect to have the lead in every given game, forcing opponents to pass often. This should be no secret as their defense has been built like that for the last decade.

~Speaking of the newest breakout player, Arian Foster looked smooth and controlled while torching the Colts, and he has given a lot of promise to fantasy teams who drafted him. Therefore, I will advise you to sell him now while he holds a RB1 price. That's right, sell him. Even though he should continue to be a very solid RB2 this year, he will not have a repeat performance all year, and he more than likely will not have 33 carries again. His value is at it's peak. His stat line was more due to a brilliantly executed game plan. You could sell Foster for something like Ronnie Brown and Pierre Garcon, or you could package him with a low-end RB2 or a WR2 to try to buy Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson.

~There were a lot of low-scoring games with great defensive performances in week 1. It is much too early to determine if that could be a trend, but I wouldn't count it out.

~Be patient, Leon Washington owners. He has to earn his time since he missed most of the preseason completing his recovery from his broken leg making sure he is in football shape. Look for him to start relegating Justin Forsett by the middle of the season.

~16 targets for Mark Clayton? Looks like an Oklahoma thing between him and Sam Bradford. Clayton doesn't know the Rams playbook yet, so once those passes fall incomplete more than complete, Bradford will once again search for his more sure WRs in Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola, and Brandon Gibson.

~Laurence Maroney has finally escaped the doghouse of Bill Belicheck. However, he once again has to wait for at least one RB to get injured to see prominent field time. He certainly will be the primary RB if Knowshon Moreno gets injured or relegated.

~I hate the enormous gap between the final week 1 game and kickoff on week 2 Sunday.

~I think I may have been wrong about calling Austin Collie a bust...just a little bit wrong. I figured the more established Anthony Gonzalez would be favored in lieu of Collie. Speaking of making less certain predictions, along with predicting Collie to bust, I was also hesitant about predicting Darren McFadden to bust, and Shonn Greene, Chris Wells, and Pierre Garcon to breakout. Just throwing that out there, but I will naturally stand by my predictions.