Wake Up, Sleepy Head!

The next value group includes what is obviously the most popular category of value players--the sleepers. Every single fantasy owner, expert, fantasy site, and their moms have a list or an idea of who their favorite sleepers are. In general terms, a sleeper is a player who will have unexpected success and has the potential to drastically overachieve. More specifically, sleepers are usually found in the mid-rounds and later in your drafts, and they are typically players who are young, unproven, and/or lacking any form of consistent success in the NFL. Furthermore, this group may include players who unexpectedly breakout, players who greatly outperform their draft pick, and no-name players who become solid fantasy starters. However, this group may also include players who stay at or below the value of their draft pick. The trick is to find those sleepers who have the most favorable situations and motivation. Unfortunately, a few of these sleeper options have become so popular that their ADP has improved over the last month or so, effectively lowering their value in drafts.

Here are the players who I like to be successful sleeper options. I have also listed what their potential best fantasy output and potential role on your fantasy team could be...

Jahvid Best
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.03/4.05
Primary Reasons to Like: unbelievable quickness and speed, preferred over Kevin Smith, playmaker extraordinaire, Lions starter and possible featured RB
Potential: top ten RB, definite regular starter, occasional huge games

Arian Foster
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.08/5.10
Primary Reasons to Like: Ben Tate is on IR, Slaton is still struggling, fits into zone-blocking scheme, will get majority of RB touches, 2009 hot season-ending performance
Potential: solid RB2, regular starter, consistent output
~Ben Tate broke his ankle during the first game of the preseason, causing the Texans to place him on injured reserve. Tate was being groomed to be the starter and potential featured RB in the Texans zone-blocking scheme. Foster, who is also an adept runner in a zone-blocking scheme does not possess the speed and quickness that Tate had, but he is quickly proving he is ready to take on a bigger role. He already turned
a few heads last season by getting over 240 total yards and 3 TDs in the final two games of the season. He will continue to prove throughout the preseason that he is capable of similar performances.

Malcom Floyd
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.09/6.08
Primary Reasons to Like: absence of Vincent Jackson = he is top WR for Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates drawing attention of safeties, deep-threat
Potential: decent WR2, increase in TDs, big games but may be inconsistent, trade bait
~The situation in San Diego is interesting. Vincent Jackson will miss at least three games with his NFL mandated suspension. He could miss six games with his roster exempt status adding three games to his suspension, holdout until week 11 (he needs to be on a roster for six games to accrue credit for a season), or get traded to another team. Nobody knows how this shakes out, but Floyd benefits from this situation. The problem is if Jackson reports back to the Chargers, you will likely see Floyd's stats drop. Until then, Floyd, who is the same size and big deep threat Jackson is, will take over the top WR duties. The situation that remains to be seen is if Floyd will take pressure off of Gates like Jackson did, or if Gates will get extra attention from safeties leaving Floyd one on one more often. I think Gates will get a little more safety attention, but Floyd's deep threat ability will eventually cause defenses to be honest. Floyd will do well in Jackson's absence, but he is not the playmaker that Jackson is. He is not stud capable. However, he will still give your fantasy team very good numbers while Jackson is out.

Jeremy Maclin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.02/7.01
Primary Reasons to Like: a year of experience, playmaker, DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek drawing coverage away from him
Potential: WR2, regular fantasy starter, big games

Johnny Knox
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.06/7.04
Primary Reasons to Like: incredibly fast, fits Mike Martz's system, big play capability, huge steps as a rookie, no true top WR for the Bears yet...could be him
Potential: top 15 WR, big numbers but may be inconsistent, may cause you to bench an established fantasy starter for him
~All offseason, the talk about which Bears WR will step up centered around Devin Aromashodu. Johnny Knox will be the top WR for Jay Cutler.

Mike Wallace
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.07/7.06
Primary Reasons to Like: adios Santonio Holmes, deep-threat, slowly fading Hines Ward, 2009 hot season-ending performances
Potential: WR2, big games but inconsistent

Michael Bush
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.10/7.07
Primary Reasons to Like: at least half of Raiders RB touches, Darren McFadden failing, runs hard, goalline touches
Potential: low-end RB2, consistent, starter when matchups are good

Cadillac Williams
ADP (10-team/12-team): 9.08/8.01
Primary Reasons to Like: stayed healthy for entire 2009 season, 2009 hot season-ending performances, unquestioned starter and likely featured RB in Tampa Bay
Potential: high-end RB2, regular starter but needing good insurance

Robert Meachem
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.03/8.09
Primary Reasons to Like: due to breakout, runs all the routes now, starter opposite of Marques Colston, 2009 hot season-ending performances, receives TDs
Potential: high-end WR2, regular starter, consistent
~The return of a healthy Lance Moore could possibly cut into Meachem's production, but he proved in the second half of last season that he finally learned all the routes and is continuing to quickly develop. He's not just a deep threat anymore. He is also a new redzone threat for Drew Brees. Moore may be returning, but Meachem will not fade away as a result.

Eddie Royal
ADP (10-team/12-team): 11.02/9.10
Primary Reasons to Like: few experienced WR options in Denver, smart player, compared favorably to Wes Welker in Josh McDaniels system
Potential: regular WR3/flex starter, consistent output
~While the rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop, Royal and Jabar Gaffney benefit greatly. They will more than likely be the two best WRs for the Broncos. I like Royal as a sleeper because he could have a potential breakout year, while Gaffney will step up his production, but not in breakout fashion.

Montario Hardesty
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.01/9.12
Primary Reasons to Like: likely starter in Cleveland, can be every-down RB, quickness and size, goalline carries, very good Browns offensive line
Potential: RB2, consistent output, occasional big game

Zach Miller OAK
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.01/9.11
Primary Reasons to Like: Jason Campbell, red-zone opportunities, best receiver in Oakland
Potential: top seven TE, regular starter, consistent output with occasional multiple TD games

Mike Williams TB
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.07/11.03
Primary Reasons to Like: developing really fast, likely top Buccaneers WR, limited WRs in Tampa Bay
Potential: WR3/flex starter when matchups are good, inconsistent but with big game potential

Chad Henne
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.09/11.07
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, Brandon Marshall, breakout potential
Potential: top ten QB, start over QBs drafted as starters, may render your first drafted QB as trade bait

Alex Smith
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.08/12.03
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, excellent game manager, great receiving options, solid offensive line
Potential: best QB2/injury replacement, consistent output but no big games

Dustin Keller
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.09/13.04
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, security blanket for Mark Sanchez, excellent receiving skills
Potential: low-end TE1, high TD production

Devin Thomas
ADP (10-team/12-team): 14.02/13.10
Primary Reasons to Like: third year WR, playmaking potential, very few Redskins WR options
Potential: flex starter, inconsistent with occasional big games

Laurent Robinson/Donnie Avery
ADP (10-team/12-team): LR after round 15/14.01 DA 14.02/13.07
Primary Reasons to Like: top two receiving options in St Louis, both have playmaking potential, third year for Avery, either WR could be top WR (I like the injury prone Robinson better)
Potential: flex starters, trade deal sweeteners

Jason Campbell
ADP (10-team/12-team): 14.09/14.03
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, way way way way better than JaMarcus Russell (not saying much), excellent game manager
Potential: top QB2/injury replacement, consistent output

Matt Moore
ADP (10-team/12-team): after round 15/14.02
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, great rapport with Steve Smith, good TD-int ratio
Potential: top QB2/injury replacement