Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

Wake Up, Sleepy Head!

The next value group includes what is obviously the most popular category of value players--the sleepers. Every single fantasy owner, expert, fantasy site, and their moms have a list or an idea of who their favorite sleepers are. In general terms, a sleeper is a player who will have unexpected success and has the potential to drastically overachieve. More specifically, sleepers are usually found in the mid-rounds and later in your drafts, and they are typically players who are young, unproven, and/or lacking any form of consistent success in the NFL. Furthermore, this group may include players who unexpectedly breakout, players who greatly outperform their draft pick, and no-name players who become solid fantasy starters. However, this group may also include players who stay at or below the value of their draft pick. The trick is to find those sleepers who have the most favorable situations and motivation. Unfortunately, a few of these sleeper options have become so popular that their ADP has improved over the last month or so, effectively lowering their value in drafts.

Here are the players who I like to be successful sleeper options. I have also listed what their potential best fantasy output and potential role on your fantasy team could be...

Jahvid Best
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.03/4.05
Primary Reasons to Like: unbelievable quickness and speed, preferred over Kevin Smith, playmaker extraordinaire, Lions starter and possible featured RB
Potential: top ten RB, definite regular starter, occasional huge games

Arian Foster
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.08/5.10
Primary Reasons to Like: Ben Tate is on IR, Slaton is still struggling, fits into zone-blocking scheme, will get majority of RB touches, 2009 hot season-ending performance
Potential: solid RB2, regular starter, consistent output
~Ben Tate broke his ankle during the first game of the preseason, causing the Texans to place him on injured reserve. Tate was being groomed to be the starter and potential featured RB in the Texans zone-blocking scheme. Foster, who is also an adept runner in a zone-blocking scheme does not possess the speed and quickness that Tate had, but he is quickly proving he is ready to take on a bigger role. He already turned

Post-season Exercises (5 of 5) ~ Returning From Injuries

Experience should tell you that many players who missed much, if not most, of a season due to injury are easily overlooked in the following season by fantasy owners. A perfect example comes from my 2005 season of my money league. I drafted Steve Smith in the eighth round of that draft when he was blossoming into one of the best WRs in fantasy football. Why did he slide so far? In the 2004 season, Smith broke his leg in the first week of the season, causing him to be put on IR and ending his season. Going into the 2005 season, many people forgot what he was capable of because he missed so much time, and especially since Muhsin Muhammad had a career year in Smith's absence. As a result, his 2005 draft stock dropped everywhere. I was lucky enough to watch him slide all the way to the eight round of my draft where I quickly snatched him up. He was my third WR chosen that year, and ended up being the best WR of the season in standard scoring formats, along with being voted as the comeback player of the year. Needless to say, he was a big part of my Championship that year.

In this following section, I have taken note of players who have missed a large portion of the season, typically half or more, due to injuries, ending the season on IR. Many of these players

Postseason Exercises (4 of 5) ~ Hot Season-Ending Performances

Late Rounds/Undrafted

Most of these guys will go undrafted, but a couple of them might sneak into the final rounds of your draft. I will always advise fantasy footballers everywhere to draft your kicker in the final round of your draft, whether that round is the fourteenth or the twentieth, and usually draft your defense in one of the two previous rounds. These guys kinda fall into that same category if your roster size is sixteen players or greater. There is a fine chance that you could find better sleeper options during the final stages of your drafts than these players, but if they go undrafted, follow their progress and the team/player situations around them closely. They could surprise you during the season. I'm talking about...

Alex Smith
~~What do Frank Gore, Micheal Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Josh Morgan have in common...other than being 49ers? All four guys put together compose one hell of a life raft for Smith. Take away any one of these guys and Smith might sink. After taking over for the ineffective Shaun Hill during week 7 Smith has resurrected his waning career. He has encountered some well documented but easily forgotten problems with an injured throwing shoulder that derailed his 2007 season and caused him to find the IR for almost the entire 2008 season after a second surgery on it. Through the ten and a half games he played in 2009, he completed 225 out of 372 attempted passes (60.5 percent) for 2350 yards, 18 TDs and 12 ints. Project that over an entire sixteen game season and he would have completed approximately 343 out of 567 attempted passes for 3581 yards, 27 TDs and 18 ints. That would've ranked him right around the fourteenth best QB for the season in standard scoring formats. Not too bad for a supposedly busted QB in a run-heavy offense. Morgan will be entering his third year with the 49ers and Crabtree will have an entire offseason and preseason to learn the plays and develop rapport. Put it all together and

Postseason Exercises (3 of 5) ~ Hot Season-Ending Performances

Mid-Late Rounds

A lot of these players will have dropped off of many fantasy footballer's radars by the time your drafts come around. A couple of these guys, specifically the TEs, won't be forgotten about, they just simply don't have very high draft value. They will be drafted either by one of the last owners to draft their starting TE (considering the following two TEs, I would highly recommend that option for your 2010 draft), or they will be the very first backup TEs drafted. All of these players will hold some of the best sleeper value to be had toward the end of your draft. They include...

Arian Foster
~~As one of the most popular undrafted free agents from the NFL's rookie class in dynasty leagues, this University of Tennessee product certainly made all of his dynasty owners very happy with the way he seized control of his opportunity in the last two weeks of the regular season for the Texans. For the rest of fantasy football owners everywhere...who the hell is he??? Chris Brown started the season as the large, plodding, short-yardage RB to compliment Steve Slaton, but he became relatively ineffective as the season wore on. When Slaton had bad nerves...literally, not metaphorically...in his neck and had to be put on injured reserve after missing week 13, an opportunity arose for Foster, who was already called up from the practice squad. Foster needed to carve out a role for himself by outperforming Ryan Moats, and he helped himself with a solid performance in week 14. After an early fumble in week 15 forced him to the sidelines for the remainder of that game, Foster needed to continue to impress during practices to get back on the field. Ultimately, the Texans coaching staff decided to take a chance on Foster for the final two games, giving him the primary RB duties for the final two weeks of the season. All Foster did with his new found life was run the ball 39 times for 216 yards and 3 TDs, adding 3 receptions for 26 yards during those two weeks. It appears the Texans backfield is in a bit of a mess going into this offseason, especially since both team owner Bob McNair and head coach Gary Kubiak have recently publicized their desires to add depth at the RB position. But if the last two weeks of the regular season are any indication, I'd say it is a safe bet that

Postseason Exercises (2 of 5) ~ Hot Season Ending Performances

Middle Rounds

Many of these players will enter our 2010 fantasy drafts as lesser known or lesser respected names and should hold very good value where they get drafted. Some of these players will be quickly identified by many "experts" throughout the summer as popular sleeper options, while the others will slip down many draft boards because their names and potential may not be given much regard by any of the major publications or website resources. These include...

Chris Wells
~~I doubt he will go unnoticed by even the amateur fantasy football owners in next year's draft, but Wells ended the season/post-season being the primary option in the Cardinals running game. It took him all the way until week 13 to finally get more reps than Tim Hightower on a consistent basis, but when the Cardinals offense started to lean on him more in the running game he responded with very good fantasy performances down the stretch, getting a TD in each of weeks 14, 15, and 16, and going over 100 yards in week 15. Even in his limited committee style touches, he averaged a remarkable 4.6 yards per carry for the year. Wells may still be in a committee situation with Hightower next year, but I fully expect him to be

Postseason Exercises (1 of 5) ~ Hot Season Ending Performances

--I will start a small series of articles concentrating on certain exercises you should perform soon after the conclusion of your fantasy football season to increase your chances of success for the following year. This particular piece will be the first of a series of five articles focusing on the first step to determine breakout candidates and quality sleepers for the 2010 season.--

A recognized practice amongst avid fantasy footballers, like myself, is to take note of lesser-known players who ended the season very strong, but didn't really burst onto the scene until later in the season, typically in the last four weeks or so. Players in this context should compose no less than half of your sleeper list for next season. This category of players I will concentrate on are typically young, not well known, and either drafted by their respective NFL teams to be future stars at their positions, or have been thrust into the limelight when players starting ahead of them get injured or relegated. Most of these players will typically carry at least some, if not all of that momentum into the following season. Since many of these players will be mostly forgotten by a lot of fantasy football team owners by next August, they will tend to be available at a great draft value.

Early Rounds

Some players have far outperformed our expectations and have positioned themselves to be solid early-round options, even though they didn't get their chances until midway through the season. They have already strongly established their names and potential in the minds of fantasy footballers everywhere, and have strong potential for a breakout season in 2010. They include...

Jamaal Charles
~~Widely considered a prototypical third down RB, Charles was used in such a manner through