Analyze This ~ Week 7

Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.

Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.

I want to take a moment to elaborate on some of the bust predictions I made last week. First of all, those players I listed I considered busts or eventual busts according to their preseason expectations. Maurice Jones-Drew is one in a very small handful of RBs getting a workhorse load, averaging over 20 touches (21.7) per game. Given the multitude of RB committees in the NFL, the few remaining workhorses are workhorses for a reason...they can keep healthy, handle a heavy load, and are playmakers extraordinaire. Therefore, after six weeks (now seven) I would certainly expect Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice to at least be in the top 10 of RBs. Anything less, and they are busts, especially since all those RBs were top 5 fantasy picks. MJD made my bust list (and not my

Analyze This ~ Week 6

I was just watching the Monday Night Football pregame on ESPN. First of all, how is it possible that anybody can take Matt Millen seriously? Why do I have to continue to see his empty head on TV talking football? Why does Stuart Scott keep asking Millen to evaluate certain players? We already know how "great" Millen's player evaluations are. His draft record with the Lions proves that. For example, Scott just asked Millen which current NFL RB would he build a team around. Millen responded quickly and emphatically "Adrian Peterson." Let me take a moment to calm down a bit.................still pissed...................


.........With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Millen had the chance to draft Peterson in 2007. Instead of trading down to any one of a multitude of teams willing to trade up to get Calvin and draft Peterson, he put his miserable track record of drafting first round WRs to the test. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and Calvin is almost everything he was scouted to be, but I would much rather have a stud RB over a stud WR to build around, all day, every day. The moron even said it, even though in 2007 he passed on trading down and drafting AD. So...maybe the Lions did need a WR to compliment Roy Williams. I guess Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, or Steve Breaston couldn't fit that bill. We could have had AD (or even stud LT Joe Thomas) and one of those aforementioned WRs in the 2007 Draft. Millen has no business talking player evaluations and scouting. For that matter, his face would look better with a tread print of one of my Timberland boots on it.

...Yes, it still stings to think of the joke called the "Millen Era."

On the Path to Bust City

As you have already deducted by the sub-title of this section, these are the busts. Some players have already busted (according to their preseason expectations) and likely won't improve the rest of the year. Others are looking like they could be fine, but they will eventually let down their owners. I have listed the stats of the busts through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players who have not yet busted are soon to be flops or have injuries cost them extensive amounts of time. Players not listed (I think they will turn it around) include Brett Favre, DeAngelo Willams, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith CAR, Randy Moss, Heath Miller, and Owen Daniels.

Already arrived...

Analyze This ~ Week 5

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless

Analyze This ~ Week 3 and Week 4

~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~

This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...



Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world

 ~~Kyle Orton is a top 3 QB with no WR1 or receiving TE on the Broncos roster, which leads me to this...

~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.

~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.

~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.

~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.

~~Where has Ray Rice gone?

~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.

~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and