Happy Trails, Old Stud ~ LaDainian Tomlinson

This guy, my friends, will go down in history as one of the top 10 greatest RBs of all time. He has been a first round pick every year after he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2001, including this year unfortunately, despite all the warnings of having well over 3000 touches under his belt and turning 30 before the season. Ladanian Tomlinson's demise was apparent during the 2008 season when he didn't seem able to absorb very many hits, became tentative, and had minor injuries sideline him during the playoffs. I was absolutely astounded by the multitudes of mis-lead owners drafting him in the first round this year.

In his limited action this year, he has looked slower and tentative and has finally given in to the massive amount of wear and tear throughout his career by missing two regular season games to injury for the first time in his career. In the fantasy football there are far too many red flags to be able to trust LT in your starting lineup during the playoffs. Granted, he has been finding the endzone lately, but you need to rely on those TDs for good fantasy stats from him. There will still be many owners who drafted him too early and didn't trade him while he was still a hot name, and also didn't acquire enough RB depth to back him up. Those owners who have made the playoffs will have to rely on other players on their team to win a Championship and hope LT can contribute a TD or two.

We will certainly remember him for his amazing achievements throughout his career and not his disappointing 2009 season. He should retire after this year, but I have a hunch he wants to break some career records like most TDs or yards. Besides, his contract with the Chargers is through the 2011 season.

Here are his current NFL records, many of them achieved during his record shattering 2006 campaign:

~Single season total TDs (31)
~Single season rushing TDs (28)
~Most points scored in a season (186)
~Consecutive games with a rushing TD (18)
~Consecutive multi-TD games (8)
~Fewest games needed to achieve 100 total TDs (89)
~Only player ever to rush for 1000 yards (1645 total) and receive 100 passes (100 even)
~Most TDs in a five game span (16)
~Second player ever with 1800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a single season
~Second most career rushing TDs (138)
~One of five RBs to have consecutive seasons of 20 or more total TDs

The best thing about LT if you own him, is he is still a big name to a few owners here and there. The trading deadline for all leagues has passed, but once trading is reopened in dynasty and keeper leagues, I would highly suggest finding those owners, if they are in your league, and immediately starting up LT trade talks. If you are lucky and you do find that owner who is still enamored with LT's namesake, you might be able to get a RB like Ryan Grant or Laurence Maroney in return, use LT to upgrade your second or third WR into a stud WR like trading Santonio Holmes and LT for Vincent Jackson, or acquire an early to mid-second round rookie pick for him.

LT is 30 years old, has 3368 touches through week 14, and is finally succumbing to injuries, so it's time to cut ties with him via a trade (and for God's sake, don't plan on drafting him next year before at least the 6th round in redrafts) and wish him...

"Happy trails, LT. You helped God only knows how many team owners win their League Titles from 2001-2008. In 2006 you may have single-handedly won Titles for teams everywhere, but for now, we will look forward to seeing you in your yellow jacket at Canton."

Happy Trails, Old Stud ~ Larry Johnson

His career is completely finished. To start the 2009 season, he was a starter who was a featured RB in Kansas City, until his now infamous gay-slurring remarks. He is now employed very tentatively by the Bengals, and he is splitting backup RB duties with Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard. I was savvy enough to avoid him in all of my leagues this year, and for that matter, the only time I owned him was in his breakout year of 2005 as a 10th round pick. My disdain for him was inspired by, not only his blatant futility this year, but also his so-called renewed committment to the Chiefs, before the season, and to being a workhorse RB.

His legacy (on the field) will all be based on his 2005 and 2006 seasons, when he totaled 3539 rushing yards on 752 attempts for a 4.7 average per carry and 37 TDs, and 753 receiving yards on 74 catches for a 10.2 average per catch and 3 TDs. That's 4292 yards and 40 TDs over 25 starts. After getting completely ran into the ground, by his own request, in 2006 with an NFL record 416 carries and a grand total of 457 touches, he predictably had a season-ending injury (sprained foot) in the middle of his 2007 campaign, after already having a rough start to that season. Furthermore, his offensive line, which was considered one of the best in NFL history who helped Priest Holmes achieve fantasy glory, setting team and NFL records, started to fall apart with All-Pro left tackle Willie Roaf retiring before the 2006 season and All-Pro guard Will Shields retiring before the 2007 season. Also, trading Trent Green to Miami before the 2007 season allowed defenses to stack the box, not being threatened by the likes of Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. The end results of all this trading, retirement, and injuries were a big part of LJ's miserable performances in 2008 and into this season.

Unfortunately, Larry Johnson's value was pretty low before this season started, and now resides in the cellar now that his renewed commitment coming into this season has meant nothing, and he has been left to rot as nothing more than a thirdish-string RB. His career is finished.

If you are a Larry Johnson owner in any league (redraft, keeper, or dynasty) don't be afraid to release him if a better option pops up on the waiver wire. He certainly won't help anyone win a Championship anymore, and I wouldn't even trust him as a desperate injury replacement if Cedric Benson misses one of these final games. Since he is now 30 years old and has that 416 carry season under his belt, it is time to wish him...

"Happy trails, Larry. Thank you for the memories of your magical 2005 season, and your workhorse 2006 season. Also, thank you for giving renewed meaning to the phrase 'think before you speak.' Unfortunately, your career may not be remembered for those 2005 and 2006 seasons, but something tells me you don't care."

Dynasty Rankings ~ QBs

Best Value Upgrades

7. Joe Flacco BAL ~ playing this well in only his second year and with average WRs, is a sign of being elite for a long time.
8. Ben Roethlisberger PIT ~ the Steelers are getting a bit more pass happy and Big Ben benefits.
16. Mark Sanchez NYJ ~ has shown that he can make all the throws and will eventually put it all together in the next couple of seasons.
22. Brett Favre MIN ~ no matter how good he is playing, this ranking is certainly his ceiling because of his age and his continual offseason indecision.
25. Kevin Kolb PHI ~ he exploded when he started for the injured Donovan McNabb, and he will not be a backup for long...it's just a matter of how long.
29. Alex Smith SF ~ starting yet again, but he has looked pretty decent compared with his past starts.

Biggest Value Downgrades

33. Trent Edwards BUF ~ busting pretty bad, but he may still be the best QB on the Bills roster...for now.
39. Shaun Hill SF ~ relegated.
55. Derek Anderson CLE ~ I kept him just above the "Crap" tier only because his 2007 season is giving a tiny glimmer of hope.
56. Brady Quinn CLE ~ brutal.
57. JaMarcus Russell OAK ~ he is the monument to Al Davis' recent senility.
61. Chad Pennington MIA ~ injuring his throwing shoulder and requring surgery on it for a third time has pretty much ended his mundane career.

Rankings

Cream of the Crop

1 (1). Drew Brees NO, 30/9
2 (3). Peyton Manning IND, 33/12
3 (2). Tom Brady NE, 32/9

Rest of the Elite

4 (5). Aaron Rodgers GB, 25-26/5
5 (4). Philip Rivers SD, 27/6
6 (6). Matt Ryan ATL, 24/2
7 (14). Joe Flacco BAL, 24/2

On the Cusp of Elite

8 (12). Ben Roethlisberger PIT, 27/6
9 (10). Matt Schaub HOU, 28/6
10 (7). Jay Cutler CHI, 26/4

Sub-Elite

11 (8). Tony Romo DAL, 29/7
12 (9). Carson Palmer CIN, 29/7
13 (15). Eli Manning NYG, 28/6
14 (11). Donovan McNabb PHI, 32/11
15 (13). Kurt Warner ARI, 38/12
16 (21). Mark Sanchez NYJ, 22/R

Pretty Solid

17 (17). David Garrard JAC, 31/8
18 (19). Matt Stafford DET, 21/R
19 (16). Matt Cassel KC, 27/5
20 (26). Josh Freeman TB, 21/R
21 (20). Matt Hasselbeck SEA, 34/11
22 (37). Brett Favre MIN, 39/19

Just Made the Cut

23 (23). Kyle Orton DEN, 26/5
24 (27). Chad Henne MIA, 24/2
25 (43). Kevin Kolb PHI, 25/3
26 (24). Jason Campbell WAS, 27/5
27 (25). Jake Delhomme CAR, 33/9

Best of the Rest

28 (31). Matt Leinart ARI, 26/4
29 (45). Alex Smith SF, 25/4
30 (28). Marc Bulger STL, 32/9
31 (39). Vince Young TEN, 26/4
32 (36). Pat White MIA, 23/R
33 (18). Trent Edwards BUF, 25/3
34 (34). Daunte Culpepper DET, 32/11
35 (44). Chris Simms DEN, 29/7
36 (41). Luke McCown JAC, 28/6
37 (46). Micheal Vick PHI, 29/7
38 (33). Kerry Collins TEN, 36/15
39 (29). Shaun Hill SF, 29/8
40 (32). Sage Rosenfels MIN, 31/9

Deep Sleepers

41 (47). Tom Brandstater DEN, 24/R
42 (48). Matt Moore CAR, 25/3
43 (49). Tavaris Jackson MIN, 26/4
44 (50). Nate Davis SF, 22/R
45 (51). Mike Teel SEA, 23/R
46 (53). Stephen McGee DAL, 23/R
47 (55). Troy Smith BAL, 25/3
48 (57). Matt Flynn GB, 24/2
49 (56). Brian Brohm BUF, 23/2
50 (58). Josh Johnson TB, 23/2
51 (60). Keith Null STL, 23/R
52 (61). Brett Ratliff CLE, 24/2
53 (62). Colt Brennan WAS, 26/2
54 (63). Dennis Dixon PIT, 24/2
55 (38). Derek Anderson CLE, 26/5

Crap

56 (22). Brady Quinn CLE, 24/3
57 (30). JaMarcus Russell OAK, 24/3
58 (67). Seneca Wallace SEA, 29/7
59 (42). Tyler Thigpen MIA, 25/3
60 (54). Jeff Garcia FA, 39/11
61 (35). Chad Pennington MIA, 33/10
62 (52). Rhett Bomar NYG, 24/R
63 (59). Kevin O'Connell NYJ, 24/2
64 (64). Rex Grossman HOU, 29/7
65 (66). Kellen Clemens NYJ, 26/4
66 (NR). A.J. Feeley CAR, 32/9
67 (65). Dan Orlovsky HOU, 26/5
68 (40). Byron Leftwich TB, 29/7
69 (68). Jon Kitna DAL, 36/12
70 (69). Drew Stanton DET, 25/3
71 (70). Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF, 27/5
72 (71). Kyle Boller STL, 28/6
73 (72). Billy Volek SD, 33/10
74 (74). J.T. O'Sullivan CIN, 30/7
75 (75). Josh McCown CAR, 30/8
76 (77). David Carr NYG, 30/8
77 (78). John David Booty TEN, 24/2
78 (79). Chase Daniel NO, 22/R
79 (80). Mark Brunell NO, 39/17
80 (81). Chris Redman ATL, 32/7
81 (82). Todd Collins WAS, 37/15
82 (83). Jim Sorgi IND, 28/6
83 (84). Charlie Batch PIT, 34/11
84 (86). Caleb Hanie CHI, 24/2

Dynasty Rankings ~ RBs

Best Value Upgrades

5. Ray Rice BAL ~ so much for that crowded backfield, committee situation, Willis McGahee revitalized thing. That's separation, and that's elite.
12. Cedric Benson CIN ~ no more drinking on a boat.
13. Rashard Mendenhall PIT ~ he is the future of the Steelers' backfield, as long as he stops fumbling.
16. Pierre Thomas NO ~ he is, of course, a much better option than Mike Bell, but his value goes no higher with Sean Payton utilizing a committee attack.
19. LeSean McCoy PHI ~ he is Brian Westbrook's successor, but he still has a lot to learn and may be headed for a future committee situation.
24. Thomas Jones NYJ ~ this was a very tentative jump in value because of his age and Shonn Greene's potential to absorb a chunk of Jones' role next year, but you can't ignore what he is doing this season. Classic "win now" player in dynasty.
31. James Davis CLE ~ Jamal Lewis is retiring after this season and Davis seems like his heir-apparent, but I expect a committee situation with Jerome Harrison here with Davis getting a few more touches, especially on first and second downs.
33. Laurence Maroney NE ~ can he still be in Bill Belichick's doghouse for whatever ridiculous reason? With all the other Patriot RBs dropping like panties at a sorority house, Maroney has opportunity.
34. Tim Hightower ARI ~ still getting a lot of touches and starts even with Beanie Wells' presence.
36. Jerome Harrison CLE ~ see above entry on James Davis.
38. Tashard Choice DAL ~ this high ranking is predicated on my prediction that either Choice or Barber will be traded to a new team sometime within the next two seasons. Choice has a lot of talent and needs an opportunity to shine.
41. Mike Bell NO ~ "Hello Rocketman." Ascending from the depths of nobody-land is this former Shannahan gem to suddenly time-share with Pierre Thomas.
45. Justin Fargas OAK ~ Al Davis is a moron, Tom Cable is a moron, but Fargas is currently favored over Michael Bush under this idiotic regime.
50. Cadillac Williams TB ~ since my last rankings, he has been named the starter, even though he is now turning in meager performances.
55. Correll Buckhalter DEN ~ he is apparently the starter ahead of the more talented Knowshon Moreno. His fair share of touches bumps his value up.
56. Ryan Moats HOU ~ he resurfaces yet again to take advantage of Slaton's fumbilitis. He may take a few touches from Slaton, but not enough to bump him up any higher than this.
57. Ricky Williams MIA ~ he is 32 years old and playing second fiddle, but his strong performances this year are recognized with this value boost.

Biggest Value Downgrades

20. Darren McFadden OAK ~ bad system, bad organization, bad coaching, and now DMC is acquiring an "injury prone" label. His undeniable talent keeps him from sliding further.
21. Marshawn Lynch BUF ~ it's not so much Fred Jackson as it is a poor passing offense and poor offensive line. Put three and three together.
23. Brandon Jacobs NYG ~ Losing Derrick Ward may have hurt a bit but his offensive line just can't open up the holes for him. Now I am also worried about his knees taking all those hits and supporting all his weight.
37. Reggie Bush NO ~ he got relegated behind Mike Bell because he never learned to run between the tackles. His talent won't let him slide much further.
39. Clinton Portis WAS ~ he is getting older, has a ton of mileage, can't stay healthy, and his team now seriously blows. He will continue to slide right out the back door ala LT. Speaking of...
48. Ladanian Tomlinson SD ~ the fall from grace can be very brutal sometimes. Nobody can convince me that LT did not return this year to try to break NFL records or gain more personal accolades.
54. Michael Bush OAK ~ see Justin Fargas in above section.
59. LenDale White TEN ~ he was relegated to being a Chris Johnson cheerleader.
61. Derrick Ward TB ~ he is busting terribly, but why is Raheem Moron not giving him more opportunities, especially with his contract?
70. Earnest Graham TB ~ he is slipping back into obscurity.
72. Fred Taylor NE ~ here is another continual slide with age and injuries being Taylor's worst enemy.
78. LeRon McClain BAL ~ put back into the traditional FB role.
90. Jamal Lewis CLE ~ not good this year and retiring after it.
91. Larry Johnson KC ~ a forced retirement here, unless the Patriots or Seahawks are willing to roll the "slur" dice.
92. Greg Jones JAC ~ relegated behind Rashad Jennings.

Rankings

In a League of His Own

1 (1). Adrian Peterson MIN, 24/3

Cream of the Crop

2 (3). Chris Johnson TEN, 23-24/2
3 (2). Maurice Jones-Drew JAC, 24/4
4 (4). Steven Jackson STL, 26/6

Rest of the Elite

5 (32). Ray Rice BAL, 22/2
6 (8). DeAngelo Williams CAR, 26/4
7 (5). Matt Forte CHI, 23-24/2
8 (6). Michael Turner ATL, 27/6
9 (7). Frank Gore SF, 26/5

On the Cusp of Elite

10 (9). Ronnie Brown MIA, 27-28/5
11 (10). Jonathan Stewart CAR, 22/2
12 (37). Cedric Benson CIN, 26-27/5
13 (23). Rashard Mendenhall PIT, 22/2
14 (14). Steve Slaton HOU, 23/2
15 (15). Marion Barber DAL, 26/5

Sub-Elite

16 (22). Pierre Thomas NO, 24-25/3
17 (16). Knowshon Moreno DEN, 22/R
18 (17). Chris Wells ARI, 21/R
19 (26). LeSean McCoy PHI, 21/R
20 (11). Darren McFadden OAK, 22/2
21 (13). Marshawn Lynch BUF, 23/3
22 (18). Kevin Smith DET, 22-23/2
23 (12). Brandon Jacobs NYG, 27/5

Muy Bueno

24 (43). Thomas Jones NYJ, 31/10
25 (20). Ryan Grant GB, 26-27/4
26 (29). Felix Jones DAL, 22/2
27 (24). Brian Westbrook PHI, 30/8
28 (30). Joseph Addai IND, 26/4
29 (27). Donald Brown IND, 22/R
30 (28). Leon Washington NYJ, 27/4

Bueno

31 (67). James Davis CLE, 23/R
32 (33). Shonn Greene NYJ, 24/R
33 (42). Laurence Maroney NE, 24/4
34 (50). Tim Hightower ARI, 23/2
35 (34). Darren Sproles SD, 26/5
36 (55). Jerome Harrison CLE, 26/4
37 (21). Reggie Bush NO, 24/4
38 (48). Tashard Choice DAL, 24-25/2

Average Potential

39 (19). Clinton Portis WAS, 28/8
40 (41). Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, 23/3
41 (130). Mike Bell NO, 26/4
42 (36). Willie Parker PIT, 28-29/6
43 (38). Willis McGahee BAL, 27-28/7
44 (40). Jamaal Charles KC, 22-23/2
45 (60). Justin Fargas OAK, 29/7

Just Made the Cut

46 (51). Julius Jones SEA, 28/6
47 (52). Andre Brown NYG, 22-23/R
48 (25). LaDanian Tomlinson SD, 30/9
49 (56). Glen Coffee SF, 22/R
50 (91). Cadillac Williams TB, 27/5
51 (47). Fred Jackson BUF, 28/3
52 (44). Jerious Norwood ATL, 26/4
53 (57). Mike Goodson CAR, 22/R
54 (39). Michael Bush OAK, 25/3
55 (78). Correll Buckhalter DEN, 30-31/9
56 (97). Ryan Moats HOU, 26-27/5

Sub-Par

57 (73). Ricky Williams MIA, 32/9
58 (61). Ladell Betts WAS, 30/8
59 (45). LenDale White TEN, 24-25/4
60 (54). Chester Taylor MIN, 29-30/8
61 (31). Derrick Ward TB, 29/6
62 (58). Brandon Jackson GB, 23-24/3
63 (63). Maurice Morris DET, 29-30/8
64 (65). Bernard Scott CIN, 25/R
65 (66). Rashad Jennings JAC, 24/R

Best of the Rest

66 (70). Mewelde Moore PIT, 27/6
67 (74). Chris Brown HOU, 28/7
68 (76). Kevin Faulk NE, 33/11
69 (80). Kolby Smith KC, 24-25/3
70 (53). Earnest Graham TB, 29/6
71 (64). Kevin Jones CHI, 27/6
72 (59). Fred Taylor NE, 33/12
73 (62). Sammy Morris NE, 32/10

Deep Sleepers

74 (85). Javon Ringer TEN, 22/R
75 (92). BenJarvis Green-Ellis NE, 24/2
76 (126). Kenneth Darby STL, 26-27/2
77 (75). Arian Foster HOU, 23/R
78 (49). LeRon McClain BAL, 24-25/3
79 (71). Gartrell Johnson NYG, 23/R
80 (95). Danny Ware NYG, 24/3
81 (96). Patrick Cobbs MIA, 26/4
82 (98). Brian Leonard CIN, 25/3
83 (106). Aaron Brown DET, 23-24/R
84 (101). Kory Sheets MIA, 24/R
85 (123). Leonard Weaver PHI, 26-27/5
86 (134). Jason Snelling ATL, 25-26/3
87 (133). Garrett Wolfe CHI, 25/3
88 (93). Xavier Omon SEA, 24/2
89 (87). P.J. Hill PHI, 22/R


The Useless and the Old

90 (46). Jamal Lewis CLE, 30/10
91 (35). Larry Johnson CIN, 29-30/7
92 (69). Greg Jones JAC, 28/6
93 (86). Cedric Peerman DET, 22-23/R
94 (81). Jacob Hester SD, 24/2
95 (90). Peyton Hillis DEN, 23/2
96 (99). Mike Hart IND, 23/2
97 (102). Devin Moore SEA, 23-24/R
98 (103). Chris Ogbonnaya STL, 23/R
99 (104). Javarris Williams KC, 23/R
100 (105). Jeremiah Johnson HOU, 22/R
101 (107). LaRod Stephens-Howling ARI, 22/R
102 (109). Frank Summers PIT, 24/R
103 (72). LaMont Jordan DEN, 30-31/9
104 (114). Chris Taylor NE, 25-26/4
105 (115). Adrian Peterson CHI, 30/8
106 (116). Jason Wright ARI, 27/6
107 (117). Michael Bennett SD, 31/9
108 (122). Ahman Green GB, 32/12
109 (124). Gary Russell OAK, 23/3
110 (127). Michael Robinson SF, 26/4
111 (128). DeShawn Wynn GB, 25-26/3
112 (94). Chris Henry TEN, 24/3
113 (131). Chauncy Washington DAL, 24/2
114 (132). Kregg Lumpkin GB, 25/2
115 (135). Jalen Parmele BAL, 23-24/2
116 (136). Samkon Gado STL, 26-27/5
117 (68). Dominic Rhodes FA, 30/9
118 (77). Ryan Torain FA, 23/2
119 (79). Antonio Pittman FA, 23-24/3
120 (88). Lorenzo Booker FA, 25/3
121 (82). Selvin Young FA, 25-26/3
122 (83). Edgerrin James FA, 31/11
123 (84). Rudi Johnson FA, 29-30/9
124 (89). T.J. Duckett FA, 28/8
125 (129). Tatum Bell FA, 28/6
Additions for next rankings as of Monday, December 14, 2009:
NR. Justin Forsett SEA, 23-24/2
NR. Chris Jennings CLE, 23-24/R
NR. Quinton Ganther SEA, 25/4
NR. Chad Simpson IND, 24/2
NR. Kahlil Bell CHI, 22-23/R
NR. Rock Cartwright WAS, 29-30/8
NR. Marcus Mason WAS, 25/3
NR. Lex Hilliard MIA, 25/2
NR. Tyrell Sutton CAR, 22-23/R

Dynasty Rankings ~ WRs

Best Value Upgrades

6. Vincent Jackson SD ~ he finally becomes Philip Rivers' first option ahead of LT and Antonio Gates and he is now elite.
11. DeSean Jackson PHI ~ he has big play capability that doesn't disappoint.
12. Hakeem Nicks NYG ~ he is already on the same page with Eli Manning, and showing elite potential.
17. Percy Harvin MIN ~ he will be ranked higher if life after Brett Favre is better than Sage Rosenfels or Tavaris Jackson.
18. Jeremy Maclin PHI ~ he could be higher without DeSean Jackson ahead of him on the depth chart.
22. Steve Smith NYG ~ he is proving to be more than just a possession receiver.
23. Mike Sims-Walker JAC ~ he takes an enormous leap in value and assumes the primary WR role as David Garrard's favorite target.
24. Kenny Britt TEN ~ uncertainty at QB keeps his value this "low", but he is still getting a big bump up in value.
25. Miles Austin DAL ~ he recently exploded onto the scene and is not fading, jumping over Roy Williams in the rankings.
26. Nate Burleson SEA ~ TJ Houshmandzadeh's arrival did not relegate Burleson, so he has become a regular fantasy starter.
33. Sidney Rice MIN ~ Brett Favre's favorite target.
34. Mario Manningham NYG ~ Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith keep him from going any higher, as he skyrockets up from ground-level.
36. Donald Driver GB ~ his age and Greg Jennings keeps him this low, but his value still increased.
41. Laurent Robinson STL ~ he became Marc Bulger's primary target over Donnie Avery...then broke his leg, but he still gets a bump in value.
43. Mohammed Massaquoi CLE ~ bye bye Braylon Edwards.
47. Mike Wallace PIT ~ Limas Sweed's drops paved the way to take a big leap in value.
50. Austin Collie IND ~ he is a smart WR, Peyton Manning's favorite kind, bringing him up 20 spots but with tapered expectations from Anthony Gonzalez's imminent return.
52. Julian Edelman NE ~ he looks like Wes Welker the second, but there can only be one for now. He is still a huge surprise coming up from the cellar.
57. Johnny Knox CHI ~ who does Jay Cutler like better as his second WR, Knox or Earl Bennett? I'm going with both, with this leap from the Deep Sleepers.
59. Pierre Garcon IND ~ he is buried on the depth chart behind better route runners, but he is a playmaker still taking a huge value boost.
69. Louis Murphy OAK ~ he showed lots of flashes, but is in the wrong organization and system, his potential brings him up from the depths.

Biggest Value Downgrades

16. Steve Smith CAR ~ Jake Delhomme along with lack of respectable Panthers' pass-catchers are responsible for this slide down from elite status.
32. Eddie Royal DEN ~ I am just as confused as everyone else so I'll blame Kyle Orton.
37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA ~ this was inevitable and is typical for older WRs going to new systems with big contracts.
44. Donnie Avery STL ~ bad team, bad QB, and he was outperformed by Laurent Robinson before his injury.
51. Lance Moore NO ~ he is having a predictable demise when Drew Brees doesn't play favorites with anyone other than Marques Colston. Injury concerns don't help.
54. Santana Moss WAS ~ he has been terribly inconsistent throughout his entire career, and now his team is terrible.
55. Terrell Owens BUF ~ being a physical freak of nature and potentially signing with another team next year keeps him from sliding further.
62. Laveranues Coles CIN ~ he is being outperformed by Andre Caldwell.
63. Tory Holt JAC ~ he is a former great WR with knee problems and diminished skills on grass, but will continue to be a nice bye week/injury replacement for the next couple seasons.
64. Brian Robiske CLE ~ he had higher value with his average skills simply because he was supposed to be NFL ready...he wasn't.
71. Ted Ginn Jr. MIA ~ return yards don't count in my rankings, and only his playmaking potential keeps him this high.
105. Limas Sweed PIT ~ I hope he never has a child, I would be afraid of how many times that child would be dropped.
106. James Hardy BUF ~ he needs to actually be healthy at some point in time to prove himself.
107. Early Doucet ARI ~ when an average white dude with very average skills (Jerheme Urban) stays ahead of you on the depth chart, you have problems.
108. Chris Chambers KC ~ he was cut by the Chargers and supposedly gaining weight.
129. Michael Clayton TB ~ I gave him one more chance after signing a big contract...fool me once...
134. Plaxico Burress FA ~ jail.

Rankings

Cream of the Crop

1 (1). Andre Johnson HOU, 28/7
2 (2). Calvin Johnson DET, 23-24/3
3 (3). Larry Fitzgerald ARI, 26/6
4 (5). Reggie Wayne IND, 30-31/9

Rest of the Elite

5 (4). Randy Moss NE, 32/12
6 (20). Vincent Jackson SD, 26/5
7 (8). Roddy White ATL, 27-28/5
8 (10). Marques Colston NO, 26/4
9 (7). Anquan Boldin ARI, 28-29/7

On the Cusp of Elite

10 (9). Greg Jennings GB, 25-26/4
11 (21). DeSean Jackson PHI, 22-23/2
12 (23). Hakeem Nicks NYG, 20-21/R
13 (13). Micheal Crabtree SF, 21-22/R
14 (11). Dwayne Bowe KC, 24-25/3
15 (16). Chad Ochocinco CIN, 31/9
16 (6). Steve Smith CAR, 30/9

Sub-Elite

17 (25). Percy Harvin MIN, 21/R
18 (24). Jeremy Maclin PHI, 21/R
19 (14). Wes Welker NE, 28/6
20 (12). Brandon Marshall DEN, 25/4
21 (19). Braylon Edwards NYJ, 26/5
22 (49). Steve Smith NYG, 24/3
23 (82). Mike Sims-Walker JAC, 24-25/3

Really Sweet

24 (41). Kenny Britt TEN, 20-21/R
25 (54). Miles Austin DAL, 25/4
26 (60). Nate Burleson SEA, 28/7
27 (26). Antonio Bryant TB, 28/7
28 (28). Anthony Gonzalez IND, 24-25/3
29 (36). Hines Ward PIT, 33/12
30 (18). Lee Evans BUF, 28/6
31 (22). Roy Williams DAL, 27-28/6
32 (17). Eddie Royal DEN, 23/2

Semi-Sweet

33 (47). Sidney Rice MIN, 23/3
34 (105). Mario Manningham NYG, 23/2
35 (30). Santonio Holmes PIT, 25/4
36 (53). Donald Driver GB, 34/11
37 (27). T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA, 31-32/9
38 (33). Steve Breaston ARI, 26/3
39 (31). Jerricho Cotchery NYJ, 27/6
40 (35). Bernard Berrian MIN, 28-29/6
41 (62). Laurent Robinson STL, 24/3

Average Potential

42 (39). Devin Hester CHI, 26-27/4
43 (66). Mohammed Massaquoi CLE, 22-23/R
44 (29). Donnie Avery STL, 25/2
45 (45). Josh Morgan SF, 24/2
46 (44). Devin Thomas WAS, 22-23/2
47 (81). Mike Wallace PIT, 23/R
48 (40). Kevin Walter HOU, 28/7
49 (50). Earl Bennett CHI, 22/2
50 (70). Austin Collie IND, 23-24/R
51 (32). Lance Moore NO, 26/5
52 (181). Julian Edelman NE, 23/R

Just Made the Cut

53 (48). Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK, 22/R
54 (34). Santana Moss WAS, 30/9
55 (15). Terrell Owens BUF, 35-36/14
56 (71). Andre Caldwell CIN, 24/2
57 (114). Johnny Knox CHI, 22-23/R
58 (55). Jordy Nelson GB, 24/2
59 (102). Pierre Garcon IND, 23/2
60 (51). Mark Clayton BAL, 27/5
61 (52). Chris Henry CIN, 26/5
62 (37). Laveranues Coles CIN, 31-32/10
63 (38). Tory Holt JAC, 33/11
64 (42). Brian Robiske CLE, 21-22/R
65 (56). Juaquin Iglesias CHI, 22/R
66 (57). Deon Butler SEA, 23/R
67 (58). Derrick Mason BAL, 35/13

Sub-Par

68 (69). Chaz Schilens OAK, 23-24/2
69 (116). Louis Murphy OAK, 22/R
70 (64). James Jones GB, 25/3
71 (43). Ted Ginn Jr. MIA, 24/3
72 (92). Malcom Floyd SD, 28/6
73 (63). Nate Washington TEN, 26/5
74 (65). Jarret Dillard JAC, 23-24/R
75 (67). Malcolm Kelly WAS, 22-23/2
76 (72). Brandon Tate NE, 21-22/R
77 (73). Ramses Barden NYG, 23/R
78 (74). Kevin Curtis PHI, 31/7

Best of the Rest

79 (77). Davone Bess MIA, 23-24/2
80 (78). Greg Camarillo MIA, 27/4
81 (115). Brian Hartline MIA, 22-23/R
82 (68). Justin Gage TEN, 28/7
83 (79). Keenan Burton STL, 24-25/2
84 (80). Jabar Gaffney DEN, 28-29/8
85 (84). Chansi Stuckey CLE, 25-26/3
86 (87). Devery Henderson NO, 27/6
87 (89). David Clowney NYJ, 24/3
88 (90). Michael Jenkins ATL, 27/6
89 (91). Robert Meachem NO, 24-25/3
90 (93). Patrick Crayton DAL, 30/6
91 (94). Harry Douglas ATL, 24-25/2
92 (95). Mike Thomas JAC, 22/R
93 (96). Patrick Turner MIA, 22/R
94 (97). Deion Branch SEA, 30/8
95 (98). Jacoby Jones HOU, 25/3
96 (113). Sammie Stroughter TB, 23/R
97 (147). Bobby Wade KC, 28/7
98 (124). Bryant Johnson DET, 28/7
99 (159). Dennis Northcutt DET, 31-32/10
100 (182). Kelley Washington BAL, 30/7
101 (NR). Sam Aiken NE, 28-29/7
102 (83). Mark Bradley KC, 27/5

Deep Sleepers

103 (117). Brandon Gibson STL, 22/R
104 (127). Jerheme Urban ARI, 28-29/6
105 (59). Limas Sweed PIT, 24-25/2
106 (75). James Hardy BUF, 23-24/2
107 (85). Early Doucet ARI, 23-24/2
108 (61). Chris Chambers KC, 31/9
109 (99). Rashied Davis CHI, 30/5
110 (131). Josh Cribbs CLE, 26/5
111 (86). Domenick Hixon NYG, 24-25/4
112 (103). Jerome Simpson CIN, 23/2
113 (146). Sam Hurd DAL, 24/4
114 (108). Demetrius Williams BAL, 26/4
115 (88). Johnnie Lee Higgins OAK, 26/3
116 (110). Kenny McKinley DEN, 22/R
117 (111). Marcus Smith BAL, 24/2
118 (112). Brooks Foster STL, 23/R
119 (118). David Anderson HOU, 26/4
120 (101). Adrian Arrington NO, 23-24/2
121 (136). Dominique Edison TEN, 23/R
122 (119). Steve Johnson BUF, 23/2
123 (166). Troy Williamson JAC, 26/5
124 (152). Jason Avant PHI, 26/4
125 (133). Tiquan Underwood JAC, 22/R

Heaping Pile of Crap

126 (139). Antwaan Randle El WAS, 30/8
127 (141). Issac Bruce SF, 36-37/16
128 (144). Brandon Stokley DEN, 33/11
129 (76). Michael Clayton TB, 26-27/6
130 (145). Muhsin Muhammad CAR, 36/14
131 (167). Arnaz Battle SF, 29/7
132 (169). Legedu Naanee SD, 25-26/3
133 (109). Craig Davis SD, 23-24/3
134 (46). Plaxico Burress FA, 32/10
135 (148). Matt Jones FA, 26/5
136 (100). Jason Hill SF, 24/3
137 (107). Javon Walker OAK, 30-31/8
138 (106). Donte Stallworth CLE, 28-29/8
139 (123). Joey Galloway FA, 37-38/15
140 (125). Bobby Engram KC, 36/14
141 (126). Derrick Williams DET, 23/R
142 (128). Demetrius Byrd SD, 23/R
143 (129). Marko Mitchell WAS, 24/R
144 (130). Manuel Johnson DAL, 22-23/R
145 (104). Brad Smith NYJ, 25-26/4
146 (121). Dwayne Jarrett CAR, 23/3
147 (132). Roscoe Parrish BUF, 27/5
148 (135). Quinten Lawrence FA, 24-25/R
149 (122). Jaymar Johnson MIN, 25/2
150 (138). Dudley Guice FA, 23/R
151 (140). Brian Clark TB, 25-26/3
152 (142). Andre Davis HOU, 30/8
153 (143). Jerry Porter FA, 31/10
154 (149). Shaun McDonald PIT, 28/7
155 (120). Ronald Curry FA, 30/8
156 (150). Sinorice Moss NYG, 25-26/4
157 (151). Brandon Jones SF, 26-27/5
158 (153). Hank Baskett IND, 27/4
159 (154). Reggie Brown PHI, 28/5
160 (156). D.J. Hackett FA, 28/6
161 (157). Josh Reed BUF, 29/8
162 (158). Greg Lewis MIN, 29/7
163 (160). Mike Furrey CLE, 32/7
164 (161). Brandon Lloyd DEN, 28/7
165 (162). Reggie Williams FA, 26/6
166 (163). Maurice Stovall TB, 24/4
167 (164). Amani Toomer FA, 35/14
168 (165). Aundrae Allison NYJ, 25/3
169 (168). Lavelle Hawkins TEN, 23/2
170 (170). Marvin Harrison FA, 37/14
171 (172). Ashley Lelie FA, 29/8
NR. Devin Aromashodu CHI, 25/4

Dynasty Rankings ~ TEs

Cream of the Crop

1 (3). Dallas Clark IND, 30/7
2 (2). Antonio Gates SD, 29/7
3 (7). Owen Daniels HOU, 26-27/4

Rest of the Elite

4 (1). Jason Witten DAL, 27/7
5 (8). Chris Cooley WAS, 27/6
6 (5). Kellen Winslow TB, 26/6
7 (6). Tony Gonzalez ATL, 33/13

On the Cusp of Elite

8 (18). Vernon Davis SF, 25/4
9 (4). Greg Olsen CHI, 24/3
10 (10). John Carlson SEA, 25/2
11 (9). Dustin Keller NYJ, 24-25/2
12 (24). Brent Celek PHI, 24/3

Muy Bueno

13 (12). Jared Cook TEN, 22/R
14 (16). Heath Miller PIT, 26-27/5
15 (28). Jermichael Finley GB, 22/2
16 (14). Chase Coffman CIN, 22-23/R
17 (11). Zach Miller OAK, 23-24/3
18 (32). Marcedes Lewis JAC, 25/4


Average Potential

19 (15). Shawn Nelson BUF, 23-24/R
20 (27). Jeremy Shockey NO, 29/8
21 (13). Tony Scheffler DEN, 26/4
22 (19). Martellus Bennett DAL, 22/2
23 (17). Brandon Pettigrew DET, 24/R
24 (20). Travis Beckum NYG, 22/R

Just Made the Cut

25 (22). Todd Heap BAL, 29/9
26 (23). Kevin Boss NYG, 25/3
27 (26). Visanthe Shiancoe MIN, 29/7
28 (34). Benjamin Watson NE, 28-29/6
29 (29). Fred Davis WAS, 23/2
30 (25). Anthony Fasano MIA, 25/4

Sub-Par

31 (30). Donald Lee GB, 29/7
32 (31). Bo Scaife TEN, 28/5
33 (21). Cornelius Ingram PHI, 24/R
34 (35). James Casey HOU, 24-25/R
35 (60). Dante Rosario CAR, 24-25/3
36 (52). Jeff King CAR, 26/4
37 (NR). Sean Ryan KC, 29/6

Deep Sleepers

38 (64). Derek Schouman BUF, 24/3
39 (44). Daniel Fells STL, 25-26/3
40 (36). Randy McMichael STL, 30/8
41 (50). Gary Barnidge CAR, 23-24/2
42 (41). Zach Miller JAC, 24-25/R
43 (46). Chris Baker NE, 29-30/8
44 (47). Robert Royal CLE, 31/8
45 (49). Jacob Tamme IND, 24/2
46 (53). Ben Patrick ARI, 25/3
47 (38). L.J. Smith BAL, 29/7

Dunghill

48 (NR). Spencer Havner GB, 26/4
49 (63). Delanie Walker SF, 25/4
50 (48). Derek Fine BUF, 26/2
51 (40). Jerramy Stevens TB, 29-30/8
52 (33). Daniel Graham DEN, 30-31/8
53 (42). Davon Drew MIA, 23-24/R
54 (58). Leonard Pope KC, 26/4
55 (67). Desmond Clark CHI, 32/11
56 (37). Martin Rucker PHI, 24/2
57 (51). David Martin MIA, 30/9
58 (54). Richard Quinn DEN, 23/R
59 (55). John Nalbone MIA, 23/R
60 (56). Ben Utecht CIN, 28/5
61 (45). Alex Smith PHI, 27/5
62 (43). Billy Miller NO, 32/10
63 (57). Michael Gaines CHI, 29/6
64 (59). Alge Crumpler TEN, 31-32/9
65 (61). Anthony Becht ARI, 32/10
66 (62). Justin Peelle ATL, 30/8
67 (39). Brad Cottam KC, 24-25/2
68 (65). Brandon Manumaleuna SD, 29/9
69 (66). Steve Heiden CLE, 32-33/11

Analyze This ~ Week 6

Week 6 brought us a lot of action. Offenses everywhere exploded like 4th of July fireworks. It seemed like no NFL team knew how to play good defense except the Packers, the Patriots, the Cardinals, and....the Raiders???...against the Eagles?!?! Maybe that pigeon really helped the Raiders out much more than we know. Just to give you an idea of how anomalous this week was, sixteen of the twenty-eight teams playing had over 300 yards of total offense and nine of those teams went over 400 yards. The biggest explosion of the weekend belonged to the New England Bradys. Do you remember that phenominal year of 2007 when the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season, broke all sorts of single season team and player records for scoring and TDs?...When they ran up the score, attempted to convert 4th downs instead of kicking field goals even when they were up by like 30 TDs? In this last Sunday's game versus the Titans, they set a club record for their highest yardage output in a single game (619). That's right, they're still setting offensive records.

As with every season, there have been nice surprises, and terrible disappointments by now. Some of this year's sleepers have risen to the level of stud, where you can't really bench them even against tough matchups. On the other hand, you have your classic case of the busts, but there are a few colossal busts this year where some of the biggest names have been plagued with atrocious performances all year and should no longer be started just because of their namesake and potential.

You Can No Longer Bench Me...

Here are some backup QBs and flex, third, or fourth RBs and WRs that....were still finding their way to your bench for bad matchups. Not any more. These players have risen into fantasy stardom and have proven to all their owners that they cannot be benched all season, even against tough matchups.

If you drafted Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, or Joe Flacco as your backup to the usual suspects (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady) you are headed down a path to blockbuster trade glory. Since the former backup QBs are now proving to be studs, I would suggest trading the big name QB because they will get you much more in return, but still put up similar numbers to Schaub, Big Ben, or Flacco.

Mike Sims-Walker is by far the most pleasant surprise because I doubt he was drafted in any redraft/keeper league with an 18-man roster or less. In fact, he was relegated behind Troy Williamson to start the season, until Williamson immediately found his way to the IR after week 1.

Matt Schaub @ CIN ~ 28/40 completions, 392 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int
Ray Rice @ MIN ~ 10 rushes, 77 yards, 2 TDs; 10 catches (11 targets), 117 yards
Mike Sims-Walker v STL ~ 9 catches (11 targets), 120 yards
Ben Roethlisberger v CLE ~ 23/35 completions, 417 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int, 1 FL
Hines Ward v CLE ~ 8 catches (12 targets), 159 yards, 1 TD
Joe Flacco @ MIN ~ 28/43 completions, 385 yards, 2 TDs
Jay Cutler @ ATL ~ 27/43 completions, 300 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints
Cedric Benson v HOU ~ 16 rushes, 44 yards, 1 TD; 2 catches (2 targets), 1 yard

...And I Need to Sit Until I Prove My Worth

The two big ones here are Steve Smith (CAR) and Terrell Owens. Smith was drafted by many as their top WR and TO was a standard WR2 choice. Unfortunately, they are relying on Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards to get the roc in their hands. Smith's situation is the worst one because he still has all the talent and ability, but no other WR or TE on the Panthers' roster poses any receiving threat whatsoever. It also hasn't helped that the running game struggled to start the season. Basically, he currently draws more attention to himself than any other single offensive skill player not a QB and it's not like he has Peyton Manning to thread the needle constantly. However, even though Smith had a dismal performance versus the lowly Buccaneers, the running game took off and carried the team. That is a wonderful sign for Smith owners because that is a sign of future successful play-actions plays to make the safties bite. For now, Smith has to ride your bench until he can prove he can have two consecutive solid performances....then sell him before his tough schedule down the stretch.

One of the bigger surprises, to me at least, is Kevin Walter. Sure he was not drafted to be anything more than a flex player, but Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels are all cashing in stud performances and even Jacoby Jones is getting some love. This leads me to believe that Walter's hamstring is tweeked a bit more than he is letting on.

Larry Johnson is still getting a workhorse load, but he is keeping his yards per carry average well below 3.0, 2.7 to be exact, and he has 0 TDs on the year. Many people still believe that because he is getting so many touches he will eventually have a big game when he finds the endzone. I will suggest that you keep him on your bench until that big game, and then still keep him on your bench afterwards, or better yet, trade him if he does achieve a bit more value. Currently, his value is no more than a trade deal sweetener to help push a trade through involving other players.

Anyways, here they are...

Steve Smith (CAR) @ TB ~ 1 catch (5 targets), 4 yards
Terrell Owens @ NYJ ~ 3 catches (8 targets), 13 yards; 1 run, 9 yards
Dustin Keller v BUF ~ 2 catches (10 targets), 16 yards
Willis McGahee @ MIN ~ 7 rushes, 3 yards
Kevin Walter @ CIN ~ 3 catches (4 targets), 29 yards
Julius Jones v ARI ~ 5 rushes, 5 yards
Matt Hasselbeck v ARI ~ 10/29 completions, 112 yards, 1 int, 1 FL
Larry Johnson @ WAS ~ 23 rushes, 83 yards; 3 catches (4 targets), 12 yards

Perfectly Bad Shout Outs

The Titans are better off going for a top 5 draft pick than trying to regain some dignity by winning multiple games. The Patriots unceremoniously took any remaining dignity away from them, and Jeff Fisher certainly didn't help by donning the Peyton Manning jersey at a charity function. They are certainly in need of a QB (not Vince Young), so why not get one of the top QBs out of the draft?

The Rams are officially on their way to joining the ranks of 16-game perfection with the 2008 Lions, and looking even worse offensively...I'm sorry Steven Jackson.

As the last shout out, the Buccaneers' (understand the heading of this section now?) ownership have got to be regretting firing John Gruden by now. At least they aren't as bad as the Rams. The Rams have basically one offensive player...a studly one...while the Bucs have Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Cadillac Williams, and Derrick Ward, who they apparently don't care how much money he is worth to them. They have just enough talent to squeak out a win or two, as long as their nameless defense can step it up for a game. By the way, I dare you to try and name one defensive player from the Bucs outside of Aqib Talib, old man Ronde Barber, and for you IDP fantasy footballaholics, Barrett Ruud. Just try it...no peeking.

Analyze This ~ Week 4

I love the NFL Red Zone channel. Meanwhile, I scoff at the Direct TV NFL Sunday Ticket package (even though I have cable) who charges a whopping $299.95 a year to get the broadcast of every NFL game. For no extra charge, NFL Network, via my Comcast service (they are still "cable Nazis"), gives me a channel that allows me to see every single important play in every Sunday afternoon game either live or slightly delayed. Basically, it's like having every game broadcast, but some dude changes the channel for me at the most important times....FOR FREE!!! My only fear is that the indent in my couch may get a little deeper than it should. Thank you NFL Network...to hell with you CBS and FOX local affiliates. I will watch my Lions...at least until their opponent drops a 40 on them, thank you Bears...but I will certainly be spending a lot of time on the Red Zone channel.

Now after that shameless and free endorsement, I will talk about week 4 a bit, sleepers and busts, and since this will be posted after the Braylon Edwards trade and Michael Crabtree signing, maybe I will say a word or two about the fantasy implications involved with those two WRs.

You Will See Much More of This...

Peyton Manning ~ over 300 yards passing again (31/41 completions, 353 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 int)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 7 catches, 11 targets (for 91 yards and 2 TDs)
Ray Rice ~ well over 4.0 yards per run (9.4 in week 4, 6.0 for the season)
Tony Romo ~ 2 or more turnovers (1 int, 1 FL week 4)
The Broncos winning ~ so maybe one or two of my toes found their way on the bandwagon after the win against Dallas. The Patriots will test them severly this weekend, but some of the matchups remaining include twice against the Chargers (their defense apparently blows), twice against the Chiefs, the Redskins, and the Raiders. They can win 4 or 5 of those. [Fantasy implications - Broncos defense is good, Kyle Orton is servicable, Brandon Marshall will have a few big games]

...And Much Less of This

Adrian Peterson ~ 2.2 yards per run, 55 yards, less than 10 FF points
Marques Colston ~ 2 catches, 33 yards (got 6 targets, respect Darrell Revis)
Drew Brees ~ 7 FF points (stating the obvious, but after back-to-back terrible outings, some people are concerned....don't be)
Jermichael Finley ~ 6 catches (7 targets), 128 yards, 1 TD
The Titans losing ~ 0-4??? Really??? Way to much talent there to continue losing, but....here come the Colts, uh-oh. [Fantasy implications - the Titans defense will continue to disappoint, passing game will continue to flourish with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and yes...Chris Johnson]

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

Here are some really good surprises so far this season. Some of these guys were probably targeted by you as sleepers, while others caught just about everybody off guard. There are also several players who I believe started out hot, but will cool down as the season progresses. Those guys you will find "not listed."

~Steve Smith...no not that one
~Joe Flacco
~Ray Rice
~David Garrard
~Mike Sims-Walker
~Cedric Benson
~Brent Celek
~Kenny Britt
[Not Listed - Jerome Harrison, Willis McGahee, Fred Jackson, Ricky Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, Mario Manningham, Jericho Cotchery, Pierre Garcon, Vernon Davis]

On the Path to Bust City

These guys have already pissed a lot of people off, and I don't think much will change throughout the season. Similar to the sleeper section, those players I have "not listed" are the players who will improve on their early season performances. The special case in that category is the Panthers' Steve Smith. There is nothing wrong with him, but rather, his bad games are directly tied to Jake Delhomme's performances most of the time. He will have some really big games, but will also have some really bad games when Delhomme doesn't take care of the ball.

~Eddie Royal
~Ladanian Tomlinson
~Tony Romo
~Matt Cassel
~Larry Johnson
~Roy Williams (do I really need to include his middle initial E?)
~Trent Edwards
~Steve Slaton
~Clinton Portis
~Terrell Owens
~Derrick Ward
~Jason Witten (predicated on Roy Williams busting as the Cowboys' top receiver)
~Entire Raiders offense, starting with JaMarcus Russell as the first domino
[Not Listed - Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith...the first one]

The Braylon Edwards Trade

Braylon Edwards getting traded to the Jets created a small rift in the fantasy world, not a big rift. His value this year will increase with the Jets, but not to the level of the 2007 stud. He will be more of a flex WR for your lineup. The Jets are still a run-first team and Mark Sanchez will still make rookie mistakes. In keeper/dynasty circles, don't go crazy over trying to acquire Edwards because a new start doesn't necessarily mean no drops and a ton of targets. In fact, he should be a huge sell high candidate for the dynasty owners who have Edwards. As long as the Jets have a strong defense, Jericho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and a run-first policy under Rex Ryan, Edwards will not be a stud, but he could potentially elevate into the WR2 category as soon as the end of this season.

Here are some other fantasy implications involving players from both the Jets and the Browns: Jericho Cotchery's value should stay about the same. Dustin Keller's value should also stay about the same, since it is currently low. I thought his value would increase as the season progresses, but with Edwards in the mix, I don't see his value moving much, at least this year. Mark Sanchez will take a small boost in value this year, and a large boost in value for dynasty. As for the Browns, their team has been a fantasy wasteland, but with Derek Anderson at the helm, Mohammad Massaquoi looked very good in week 4, and is suddenly the team's top WR. Taper your expectations for him though, but he is now a nice sleeper to own. I really don't think any other players from the Browns have value fluctuations from this trade, including Anderson who will be nothing more than a bye-week replacement when the matchup is good.  There is a slim chance we could see a bit of the 2007 Derek Anderson, but I highly doubt it.

The Michael Crabtree Signing

The ego-maniac has finally signed, and not a single 49ers player gives a rat's...you know what. He may have been the premier WR out of the 2009 draft, but after missing all of the offseason programs, training camp and preseason, he is pretty much out of the loop this year. Don't go crazy over picking him up off of the waiver wire in redraft leagues because he won't do much this year. He is certainly worth a roster spot in keeper leagues, only if you can keep 4 or more players, and only if you keep those players in the rounds they were drafted (he would count as a last round pick). Don't forget the 49ers have been winning without him and still are a run-first...second and third...team under Singletary. In dynasty circles, his value is certainly less than where he was most likely drafted as a top 5 pick. However, he could still have a very bright future, if he learns how to check his ego.

Analyze This ~ Week 3

--For my currently very few fans, I apologize for not being able to post my week 3 analysis. The little time I have to work on this blog (mainly at night after my wife and 2 daughters are sleeping) has been absorbed by my girls being sick and needing all of my attention and comforting during the night. I'm sure you guys are certainly more worried about looking toward week 4 right now. I should be able to blog next week more easily. What you see following this, is part of the rough copy intro to my analysis, which I started Tuesday--

Three weeks gone, and so should be a majority of the season's flukey outcomes that are typically associated with the first two or three weeks. I have noticed throughout the years that many unpredictable things happen during this initial run of the season. Many players of lesser talent are completely jacked up on adrenaline, QBs and WRs are working out their timing routes, new coaches are figuring out how their teams play together and which plays work better than others, offensive lines with new members are learning how to play together, and basically a lot of kinks are worked out of players and plays. You will see a lot of very good teams like Carolina and Tennessee have slow starts while learning that some things have changed and some things should change from the previous year, or maybe some things that have changed didn't need to.

You Will See Much More of This...

...And Much Less of This

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

On the Path to Bust City

Analyze This ~ Week 2

OK so the "Starting Studs" category probably died after week 1. Like I said, this weekly analysis thing is a work in progress, but I figured you should know who stays in your starting lineup like Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Marques Colston, Philip Rivers, Andre Johnson, Drew Brees, and Vincent Jackson, all of whom had huge week 2 performances. However, I will admit to slyly benching Chris Johnson in week 1 in favor of Ray Rice, warily considering the matchup against the ever potent Steelers' defense in their home-opener. After week 2, Johnson will probably not see my bench again, pending injuries. Since my time to work on this blog is becoming more rare and I will be posting it much later than I wanted, I will get right into the analysis.

You're Killing Me!

Greg Jennings v CIN ~ 0 catches (5 targets)
Tom Brady @ NYJ ~ 23/47 completions, 216 yards, 1 int
Matt Forte v PIT ~ 13 runs, 29 yards; 5 catches (6 targets), 33 yards
Steve Slaton @ TEN ~ 17 runs, 34 yards; 3 catches (5 targets), 25 yards
Maurice Jones-Drew v ARI ~ 13 runs, 66 yards; 4 catches (7 targets), 17 yards
Brandon Marshall v CLE ~ 3 catches (6 targets), 34 yards; 1 run, 14 yards
Eddie Royal v CLE ~ 3 catches (9 targets), 20 yards
Donnie Avery @ WAS ~ 1 catch (6 targets), 4 yards, 1 FL
Brandon Jacobs @ DAL ~ 16 runs, 58 yards; 0 catches (1 target)
Roy Williams v NYG ~ 1 catch (4 targets), 18 yards

You Will See Much More of This...

Matt Schaub ~ 127.8 passer rating (25/39 completions, 357 yards, 4 TDs)
Ronnie Brown ~ 24 runs, 136 yards, 2 TDs (62 yards and 1 TD from wildcat)
Carson Palmer ~ 21 FF pts (15/23 completions, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 2 ints; 2 runs, 1 yards, 1 TD)
DeShaun Jackson ~ 4 catches (9 targets), 101 yards, 1 TD; 3 runs, 15 yards
Darren Sproles ~ 17 touches, 150 total yards, 1 TD
Lendale White ~ 6 total touches (6 runs, 25 yards, and cheerleading Chris Johnson from the sideline)
Julius Jones ~ 1.4 average yards per rush (8 runs, 11 yards)

...And Much Less of This

Eli Manning ~ 330 yards, 2 TDs (25/38 completions)
Cedric Benson ~ 4.9 average yards per rush (29 runs, 141 yards)
Correll Buckhalter ~ 16 FF pts, 8.4 average yards per rush (9 runs, 76 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch (3 targets), 30 yards)
Donald Driver ~ 15 FF pts (6 catches (9 targets), 99 yards, 1 TD)
Entire Patriots' Offense ~ 299 total yards (216 passing, 83 rushing), 0 TDs
Joseph Addai/Donald Brown ~ combined 10 rushes

Surprised the Heck Out of Me!

Adrian Peterson had a grand total of 116 yards (92 rushing, 24 receiving) against the Lions defense. Granted the Lions beefed up their defense a bit from last year, but Mike Bell torched them for 143 rushing yards, averaging 5.1 per carry in week 1.....Mike Bell! I thought for sure AD would absolutely humiliate the Lions and set single game records. I own AD in one of my leagues, and I was so excited about the potential of seeing his point total go into the 50s. Needless to say, he disappointed me. 116 total yards, 1 TD, and 6.1 yards per run is typically a very nice stat-line for a RB, but when it's Adrian Peterson against the Lions...not so much.

Chris Johnson is one of the best RBs in the NFL, a stud first-round pick, and a guy I had ranked 4th on my pre-draft cheat sheet. We all knew he would have big games, torch weaker defenses, and end the season as a potential top 5 RB. However, I must say I was still surprised by his phenominal performance against the ever slumping Texans defense. 284 total scrimmage yards and 3 TDs! WOW! The best part is his yards per run average of 12.3. Of course, many of the 87 receiving yards came off of a blown coverage when Johnson lined up as a wideout and had no defender on him.

Greg Jennings had 0 catches against the Bengals defense?!?! That's two surprises rolled into one. Furthermore, the Packers scored 3 TDs, Aaron Rodgers passed for 261 yards, and Jennings had no part. I highly doubt we will ever see that again this or next year.

Continuing with the Bengals/Packers game, the Bengals win at Lambeau impressively. Cedric Benson ran very well, Chad Ochocinco delivered the Lambeau leap he promised, Carson Palmer efficiently managed the game, and the Bengals defense shut down Greg Jennings. I mentioned in my week 1 analysis that the Packers defense is for real, and I was speaking from a fantasy perspective. Even though they allowed the Bengals to score 31 points they still got 2 ints, with one being returned by Charles Woodson for a TD, 2 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. That still makes for a good fantasy defense, even after allowing 31 points to be scored against them.

It is no surprise to me that the Jets defense is playing as well as they are. What surprised me is the Jets defense holding the Patriots offense under 300 total yards and allowing 0 TDs. Did I already mention that the Jets defense under Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine is the real deal? Well they are, and Tom Brady will confirm that.

Talk about a breakout party on national television. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham each had 10 catches with the former getting 134 yards and 1 TD and the latter getting 150 yards and 1 TD. I knew Smith would see a lot of receptions this year as the Giants' primary possession WR, but I didn't expect to see him explode for 134 yards and a TD in one week against a solid...well supposedly solid defense. Manningham is looking very impressive so far and will certainly have a bright career ahead of him, but don't expect a lot of these types of performances this year. In fact, Manningham is currently very nice trade bait. He could definitely have another one of these performances, but he certainly won't end the season as the top WR (as he currently is now), and I don't see him even landing in the top 15 WRs at season-end. However, it is very nice to see Manningham like he was in the maize and blue again.

Analyze This ~ Week 1

Week 1 has finally come....and gone. I have been draft prepping all summer long, staring at my dynasty roster to see if I can improve my already 1st place (but unfortunately not a Championship winning) team, keeping up on every single tidbit of information from all the training camps and preseason action, trying to cram every single useful piece of information and color coding on my cheat sheet for my money leagues, which I always must maintain 1 page per position to appease my "OCD." Ultimately, I have simply been anxious for the 2009 season to begin ever since Santonio Holmes' tiptoe catch in the Superbowl. FINALLY!!! FOOTBALL IS BACK, BABY!!!

On Sunday, my wife was kind enough to watch my 2 daughters all day in order to allow me to watch football. Well, after watching my Lions blow another game and spending the entire day staring at all my FF matches on the computer and the games on TV...."ALRIGHT! Colston got a TD early, he should be in for a huge game on my team!"....I decided to spend the remainder of sunlight out golfing.

Pass on watching more football in week 1??? Am I crazy???

Well, spending all day inside on football Sundays causes me to obsess about every point scored on my teams or my opponents' teams. Staying true to form, I watched just about every point being scored on my fantasy teams while also watching the Lions desperately trying to figure out Drew Brees...."What happened to Colston?"....as he spread the ball around to all his weapons. After 4 straight hours of obsessively watching my teams...."OK, AD and Reggie Wayne got my back"....I had to break myself away from the computer and enjoy the beautiful day. I guess I will take a 150 yd shot, from the rough, over trees, landing within 1 foot of the hole, over getting excited that Matt Hasselbeck completed a 15 yard passing play.

Anyhow, here are some stats and thoughts about players and teams from week 1.

Starting Studs

Players labeled "studs" always own a spot on your starting lineup, no matter what the match up is. These particular studs show why...

Adrian Peterson ~ 25 runs, 180 yards, 3 TDs; 1 catch (1 target), 18 yards
Drew Brees ~ 26/34 completions, 358 yards, 6 TDs, 1 int
Reggie Wayne ~ 10 catches (14 targets), 162 yards, 1 TD
Tom Brady ~ 39/53 completions, 378 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int; 1 run, 9 yards
Greg Jennings ~ 6 catches (8 targets), 106 yards, 1 TD
Randy Moss ~ 12 catches (16 targets), 141 yards
Tony Gonzalez ~ 5 catches (9 targets), 73 yards, 1 TD

Downgraded Players

Here are some great performances from guys who many thought were overrated or who slid in most drafts because of certain situations supposed to be detrimental to their values...

Tony Romo ~ 16/27 completions, 353 yards, 3 TDs; 1 run, 2 yards
Thomas Jones ~ 20 runs, 107 yards, 2 TDs
Willis McGahee ~ 10 runs, 44 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches (5 targets), 31 yards, 1 TD
Mark Clayton ~ 5 catches (9 targets), 77 yards, 1 TD; 1 run, 9 yards
Jeremy Shockey ~ 4 catches (4 targets), 31 yards, 2 TDs
Todd Heap ~ 5 catches (8 targets), 74 yards, 1 TD

Over Achievers

These are some of the players who had more of a one-week-wonder performance or who happened to play better than their potential. I'm not saying any of these players cannot perform like this again, but rather I'm saying don't expect those kind of stats from these guys very often. They will cause you migraines if you attempt to integrate them into a regular starting rotation for your team. Need I say more?...

Patrick Crayton ~ 4 catches (6 targets), 135 yards, 1 TD; 1 run, 5 yards
Julius Jones ~ 19 runs, 117 yards, 1 TD; 2 catches (2 targets), 19 yards
Benjamin Watson ~ 6 catches (7 targets), 77 yards, 2 TDs
Cedric Benson ~ 21 runs, 76 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches (4 targets), 32 yards
Byron Leftwich ~ 25/41 completions, 276 yds, 1 TD; 3 runs, 3 yards
Louis Murphy ~ 4 catches (9 targets), 87 yards, 1 TD
Brandon Stokley ~ 1 catch (4 targets), 87 yards, 1 TD

You're Killing Me!

What the hell happened to these guys? You are looking at a few first round draft picks and regular starters in general. This list of guys lost a lot of FF games everywhere for their owners. These are not simply underachieving starters, these guys had absolutely horrendous performances. In fact, only Matt Forte and Jay Cutler from this list scored 5 or more points in standard, no-PPR scoring, and Cutler threw 4 picks in his bust-worthy effort. I won't even bother listing their stats because all you need to know is, for a lack of a better descriptive phrase, they sucked! I also won't so much as consider listing Jake Delhomme here because if you started him, you deserve to lose...

Matt Forte
Steve Slaton
Andre Johnson
Steve Smith (CAR)
Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal
Jay Cutler
Matt Schaub
Reggie Bush
Larry Johnson
Terrell Owens/Lee Evans
Knowshon Moreno
Braylon Edwards
Greg Olsen
Laveranues Coles
Carson Palmer
Santana Moss
Willie Parker

Thoughts and Observations

Before the season started, I labeled both Matt Forte and Steve Slaton as sophomore slumpers/busts for this year. So...it's just week 1 and there is a lot of football, I understand that. However, I knew that Jay Cutler doesn't check down, and that is where a lot of Forte's stats came from his rookie year. Also, the Texans coaching staff has been looking for a short-yardage RB to compliment Slaton, but his week 1 futility was more a credit to the revamped Rex Ryan defense of the Jets, than it was to a Slaton slump.

Jake Delhomme....really?!?! Can the Panthers please do something to assure the preservation of what has the potential to be a Hall of Fame career for Steve Smith?

While watching the Raiders/Chargers game on Monday night, I noticed a few things: The Raiders will run, run, run, and then pass to Zach Miller. I suggest picking up Michael Bush if he is still on the waiver wire of your league, or trade for him while his value is still low, especially if you own Darren McFadden. Bush is one McFadden injury away from being a very good RB2 for your team. I also noticed Ladainian Tomlinson on the sidelines a lot nursing a "sprained ankle." He has had one of the most illustrious careers for a RB, but he is no longer a regular FF starter, and with the mileage he has on his body, I would certainly expect him to get dinged up a lot more easily. When he is healthy, you still may want to sit him against tough run defenses. If you drafted him in the first round...well, that is your fault, and you should try desperately to trade him to someone who is still enamored with his namesake and will give you top value in return.

Michael Crabtree is an egotistical moron.

Do you think Romo misses Terrell Owens? The Tampa Bay game was a statement game for him. You may also notice I listed Patrick Crayton as an over achiever from week 1. Three reasons for that: Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, and Martellus Bennett. Roy Williams and Jason Witten are the top 2 receivers on the team. Not only has Crayton been terribly inconsistent throughout his career in Dallas, but he will be fighting those other 3 guys all year for TD and yardage scraps leftover from Williams and Witten. Did I also forget to mention that Marion Barber and Felix Jones are very good receiving RBs?

Here are some defense shout-outs:

The Eagles defense won a lot of fantasy games for owners, but it is too bad they can't face Jake Delhomme again this season.

The Packers defense is for real.

Losing Brian Urlacher will seriously hurt the Bears run defense all year (hello Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant, and Adrian Peterson).

The Giants defense welcomes Osi Umenyiora back with open arms and so do fantasy owners, but watch out for all those injuries to their secondary.

The Jets defense is also for real.

I picked the Texans defense as a sleeper this year, but getting torched by a rookie QB in his first NFL start doesn't look too good for them.

Dynasty Rankings ~ TEs

Cream of the Crop

1. Jason Witten DAL, 27/7
2. Antonio Gates SD, 29/7
3. Dallas Clark IND, 30/7

Rest of the Elite

4. Greg Olsen CHI, 24/3
5. Kellen Winslow TB, 26/6
6. Tony Gonzalez ATL, 33/13

On the Cusp of Elite

7. Owen Daniels HOU, 26-27/4
8. Chris Cooley WAS, 27/6
9. Dustin Keller NYJ, 24-25/2
10. John Carlson SEA, 25/2

Muy Bueno

11. Zach Miller OAK, 23-24/3
12. Jared Cook TEN, 22/R
13. Tony Scheffler DEN, 26/4
14. Chase Coffman CIN, 22-23/R
15. Shawn Nelson BUF, 23-24/R
16. Heath Miller PIT, 26-27/5

Average Potential

17. Brandon Pettigrew DET, 24/R
18. Vernon Davis SF, 25/4
19. Martellus Bennett DAL, 22/2
20. Travis Beckum NYG, 22/R
21. Cornelius Ingram PHI, 24/R

Just Made the Cut

22. Todd Heap BAL, 29/9
23. Kevin Boss NYG, 25/3
24. Brent Celek PHI, 24/3
25. Anthony Fasano MIA, 25/4
26. Visanthe Shiancoe MIN, 29/7
27. Jeremy Shockey NO, 29/8
28. Jermichael Finley GB, 22/2

Sub-Par

29. Fred Davis WAS, 23/2
30. Donald Lee GB, 29/7
31. Bo Scaife TEN, 28/5
32. Marcedes Lewis JAC, 25/4
33. Daniel Graham DEN, 30-31/8
34. Benjamin Watson NE, 28-29/6

Best of the Rest

35. James Casey HOU, 24-25/R
36. Randy McMichael STL, 30/8
37. Martin Rucker CLE, 24/2
38. L.J. Smith BAL, 29/7
39. Brad Cottam KC, 24-25/2
40. Jerramy Stevens TB, 29-30/8

Long-Shots and Deep Sleepers

41. Zach Miller JAC, 24-25/R
42. Davon Drew BAL, 23-24/R
43. Billy Miller NO, 32/10
44. Daniel Fells STL, 25-26/3
45. Alex Smith FA, 27/5
46. Chris Baker NE, 29-30/8
47. Robert Royal CLE, 31/8
48. Derek Fine BUF, 26/2
49. Jacob Tamme IND, 24/2
50. Gary Barnidge CAR, 23-24/2
51. David Martin FA, 30/9
52. Jeff King CAR, 26/4
53. Ben Patrick ARI, 25/3

Dunghill

54. Richard Quinn DEN, 23/R
55. John Nalbone MIA, 23/R
56. Ben Utecht CIN, 28/5
57. Michael Gaines CHI, 29/6
58. Leonard Pope FA, 26/4
59. Alge Crumpler TEN, 31-32/9
60. Dante Rosario CAR, 24-25/3
61. Anthony Becht ARI, 32/10
62. Justin Peelle ATL, 30/8
63. Delanie Walker SF, 25/4
64. Derek Schouman BUF, 24/3
65. Brandon Manumaleuna SD, 29/9
66. Steve Heiden CLE, 32-33/11
67. Desmond Clark CHI, 32/11
68. Nate Jackson FA, 30/7