One Thought

~~I must apologize. My last blog included some thoughts that were about three weeks old, specifically the two thoughts on the Lions. I was so anxious to publish that blog (finally) that I didn't get a chance to thoroughly proofread it. I will recant my comments on essentially the entire Lions RB situation. Jahvid Best is no longer a viable fantasy starter with multiple turf toe injuries, and his workload is now being drastically reduced to help him heal. Once the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, expect Best to be an IR candidate. Also, Kevin Smith was back and is now back on the IR after thumb surgery. Look for Maurice Morris to get the "Lions share" (ha...ha...ha) of the carries for the rest of the season, or until Best is able to run his cuts properly. Morris is actually a solid flex option.

Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate

Bye Week

I am currently on my bye week. Since I am doing this blog just for fun, I have taken a week off for some extra free time and to take care of other business. I will post a special "double edition" following this weekend, and make some predictions regarding the NFL playoffs and Superbowl. We are at the halfway point in the NFL season, and I typically like to make Superbowl predictions and playoff speculations at this time.

However, I will leave you with one thought...

~~It's time to start thinking outside the box this season. There are very few must-start-no-matter-the-matchup players in the league. In fact, there seems to be even less compared to previous seasons. They include Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (even though I predict second half disappointment from him), Kyle Orton (doesn't feel right saying that), Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster (even with his tough schedule looming), Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd (doesn't feel right saying that either), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis. More than ever, don't be afraid to play matchups if one of your regular starters not mentioned above has a tough matchup, and you have a solid replacement option with a very favorable matchup.

Check back early next week. I will attempt (as usual) to post my blog earlier than what I have been each week.