Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

Breakouts

Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.

Here are this year's breakouts...

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.

Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of