Analyze This ~ Week 2

OK so the "Starting Studs" category probably died after week 1. Like I said, this weekly analysis thing is a work in progress, but I figured you should know who stays in your starting lineup like Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Marques Colston, Philip Rivers, Andre Johnson, Drew Brees, and Vincent Jackson, all of whom had huge week 2 performances. However, I will admit to slyly benching Chris Johnson in week 1 in favor of Ray Rice, warily considering the matchup against the ever potent Steelers' defense in their home-opener. After week 2, Johnson will probably not see my bench again, pending injuries. Since my time to work on this blog is becoming more rare and I will be posting it much later than I wanted, I will get right into the analysis.

You're Killing Me!

Greg Jennings v CIN ~ 0 catches (5 targets)
Tom Brady @ NYJ ~ 23/47 completions, 216 yards, 1 int
Matt Forte v PIT ~ 13 runs, 29 yards; 5 catches (6 targets), 33 yards
Steve Slaton @ TEN ~ 17 runs, 34 yards; 3 catches (5 targets), 25 yards
Maurice Jones-Drew v ARI ~ 13 runs, 66 yards; 4 catches (7 targets), 17 yards
Brandon Marshall v CLE ~ 3 catches (6 targets), 34 yards; 1 run, 14 yards
Eddie Royal v CLE ~ 3 catches (9 targets), 20 yards
Donnie Avery @ WAS ~ 1 catch (6 targets), 4 yards, 1 FL
Brandon Jacobs @ DAL ~ 16 runs, 58 yards; 0 catches (1 target)
Roy Williams v NYG ~ 1 catch (4 targets), 18 yards

You Will See Much More of This...

Matt Schaub ~ 127.8 passer rating (25/39 completions, 357 yards, 4 TDs)
Ronnie Brown ~ 24 runs, 136 yards, 2 TDs (62 yards and 1 TD from wildcat)
Carson Palmer ~ 21 FF pts (15/23 completions, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 2 ints; 2 runs, 1 yards, 1 TD)
DeShaun Jackson ~ 4 catches (9 targets), 101 yards, 1 TD; 3 runs, 15 yards
Darren Sproles ~ 17 touches, 150 total yards, 1 TD
Lendale White ~ 6 total touches (6 runs, 25 yards, and cheerleading Chris Johnson from the sideline)
Julius Jones ~ 1.4 average yards per rush (8 runs, 11 yards)

...And Much Less of This

Eli Manning ~ 330 yards, 2 TDs (25/38 completions)
Cedric Benson ~ 4.9 average yards per rush (29 runs, 141 yards)
Correll Buckhalter ~ 16 FF pts, 8.4 average yards per rush (9 runs, 76 yards, 1 TD; 1 catch (3 targets), 30 yards)
Donald Driver ~ 15 FF pts (6 catches (9 targets), 99 yards, 1 TD)
Entire Patriots' Offense ~ 299 total yards (216 passing, 83 rushing), 0 TDs
Joseph Addai/Donald Brown ~ combined 10 rushes

Surprised the Heck Out of Me!

Adrian Peterson had a grand total of 116 yards (92 rushing, 24 receiving) against the Lions defense. Granted the Lions beefed up their defense a bit from last year, but Mike Bell torched them for 143 rushing yards, averaging 5.1 per carry in week 1.....Mike Bell! I thought for sure AD would absolutely humiliate the Lions and set single game records. I own AD in one of my leagues, and I was so excited about the potential of seeing his point total go into the 50s. Needless to say, he disappointed me. 116 total yards, 1 TD, and 6.1 yards per run is typically a very nice stat-line for a RB, but when it's Adrian Peterson against the Lions...not so much.

Chris Johnson is one of the best RBs in the NFL, a stud first-round pick, and a guy I had ranked 4th on my pre-draft cheat sheet. We all knew he would have big games, torch weaker defenses, and end the season as a potential top 5 RB. However, I must say I was still surprised by his phenominal performance against the ever slumping Texans defense. 284 total scrimmage yards and 3 TDs! WOW! The best part is his yards per run average of 12.3. Of course, many of the 87 receiving yards came off of a blown coverage when Johnson lined up as a wideout and had no defender on him.

Greg Jennings had 0 catches against the Bengals defense?!?! That's two surprises rolled into one. Furthermore, the Packers scored 3 TDs, Aaron Rodgers passed for 261 yards, and Jennings had no part. I highly doubt we will ever see that again this or next year.

Continuing with the Bengals/Packers game, the Bengals win at Lambeau impressively. Cedric Benson ran very well, Chad Ochocinco delivered the Lambeau leap he promised, Carson Palmer efficiently managed the game, and the Bengals defense shut down Greg Jennings. I mentioned in my week 1 analysis that the Packers defense is for real, and I was speaking from a fantasy perspective. Even though they allowed the Bengals to score 31 points they still got 2 ints, with one being returned by Charles Woodson for a TD, 2 sacks, and 1 forced fumble. That still makes for a good fantasy defense, even after allowing 31 points to be scored against them.

It is no surprise to me that the Jets defense is playing as well as they are. What surprised me is the Jets defense holding the Patriots offense under 300 total yards and allowing 0 TDs. Did I already mention that the Jets defense under Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine is the real deal? Well they are, and Tom Brady will confirm that.

Talk about a breakout party on national television. Steve Smith and Mario Manningham each had 10 catches with the former getting 134 yards and 1 TD and the latter getting 150 yards and 1 TD. I knew Smith would see a lot of receptions this year as the Giants' primary possession WR, but I didn't expect to see him explode for 134 yards and a TD in one week against a solid...well supposedly solid defense. Manningham is looking very impressive so far and will certainly have a bright career ahead of him, but don't expect a lot of these types of performances this year. In fact, Manningham is currently very nice trade bait. He could definitely have another one of these performances, but he certainly won't end the season as the top WR (as he currently is now), and I don't see him even landing in the top 15 WRs at season-end. However, it is very nice to see Manningham like he was in the maize and blue again.

Analyze This ~ Week 1

Week 1 has finally come....and gone. I have been draft prepping all summer long, staring at my dynasty roster to see if I can improve my already 1st place (but unfortunately not a Championship winning) team, keeping up on every single tidbit of information from all the training camps and preseason action, trying to cram every single useful piece of information and color coding on my cheat sheet for my money leagues, which I always must maintain 1 page per position to appease my "OCD." Ultimately, I have simply been anxious for the 2009 season to begin ever since Santonio Holmes' tiptoe catch in the Superbowl. FINALLY!!! FOOTBALL IS BACK, BABY!!!

On Sunday, my wife was kind enough to watch my 2 daughters all day in order to allow me to watch football. Well, after watching my Lions blow another game and spending the entire day staring at all my FF matches on the computer and the games on TV...."ALRIGHT! Colston got a TD early, he should be in for a huge game on my team!"....I decided to spend the remainder of sunlight out golfing.

Pass on watching more football in week 1??? Am I crazy???

Well, spending all day inside on football Sundays causes me to obsess about every point scored on my teams or my opponents' teams. Staying true to form, I watched just about every point being scored on my fantasy teams while also watching the Lions desperately trying to figure out Drew Brees...."What happened to Colston?"....as he spread the ball around to all his weapons. After 4 straight hours of obsessively watching my teams...."OK, AD and Reggie Wayne got my back"....I had to break myself away from the computer and enjoy the beautiful day. I guess I will take a 150 yd shot, from the rough, over trees, landing within 1 foot of the hole, over getting excited that Matt Hasselbeck completed a 15 yard passing play.

Anyhow, here are some stats and thoughts about players and teams from week 1.

Starting Studs

Players labeled "studs" always own a spot on your starting lineup, no matter what the match up is. These particular studs show why...

Adrian Peterson ~ 25 runs, 180 yards, 3 TDs; 1 catch (1 target), 18 yards
Drew Brees ~ 26/34 completions, 358 yards, 6 TDs, 1 int
Reggie Wayne ~ 10 catches (14 targets), 162 yards, 1 TD
Tom Brady ~ 39/53 completions, 378 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int; 1 run, 9 yards
Greg Jennings ~ 6 catches (8 targets), 106 yards, 1 TD
Randy Moss ~ 12 catches (16 targets), 141 yards
Tony Gonzalez ~ 5 catches (9 targets), 73 yards, 1 TD

Downgraded Players

Here are some great performances from guys who many thought were overrated or who slid in most drafts because of certain situations supposed to be detrimental to their values...

Tony Romo ~ 16/27 completions, 353 yards, 3 TDs; 1 run, 2 yards
Thomas Jones ~ 20 runs, 107 yards, 2 TDs
Willis McGahee ~ 10 runs, 44 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches (5 targets), 31 yards, 1 TD
Mark Clayton ~ 5 catches (9 targets), 77 yards, 1 TD; 1 run, 9 yards
Jeremy Shockey ~ 4 catches (4 targets), 31 yards, 2 TDs
Todd Heap ~ 5 catches (8 targets), 74 yards, 1 TD

Over Achievers

These are some of the players who had more of a one-week-wonder performance or who happened to play better than their potential. I'm not saying any of these players cannot perform like this again, but rather I'm saying don't expect those kind of stats from these guys very often. They will cause you migraines if you attempt to integrate them into a regular starting rotation for your team. Need I say more?...

Patrick Crayton ~ 4 catches (6 targets), 135 yards, 1 TD; 1 run, 5 yards
Julius Jones ~ 19 runs, 117 yards, 1 TD; 2 catches (2 targets), 19 yards
Benjamin Watson ~ 6 catches (7 targets), 77 yards, 2 TDs
Cedric Benson ~ 21 runs, 76 yards, 1 TD; 4 catches (4 targets), 32 yards
Byron Leftwich ~ 25/41 completions, 276 yds, 1 TD; 3 runs, 3 yards
Louis Murphy ~ 4 catches (9 targets), 87 yards, 1 TD
Brandon Stokley ~ 1 catch (4 targets), 87 yards, 1 TD

You're Killing Me!

What the hell happened to these guys? You are looking at a few first round draft picks and regular starters in general. This list of guys lost a lot of FF games everywhere for their owners. These are not simply underachieving starters, these guys had absolutely horrendous performances. In fact, only Matt Forte and Jay Cutler from this list scored 5 or more points in standard, no-PPR scoring, and Cutler threw 4 picks in his bust-worthy effort. I won't even bother listing their stats because all you need to know is, for a lack of a better descriptive phrase, they sucked! I also won't so much as consider listing Jake Delhomme here because if you started him, you deserve to lose...

Matt Forte
Steve Slaton
Andre Johnson
Steve Smith (CAR)
Brandon Marshall/Eddie Royal
Jay Cutler
Matt Schaub
Reggie Bush
Larry Johnson
Terrell Owens/Lee Evans
Knowshon Moreno
Braylon Edwards
Greg Olsen
Laveranues Coles
Carson Palmer
Santana Moss
Willie Parker

Thoughts and Observations

Before the season started, I labeled both Matt Forte and Steve Slaton as sophomore slumpers/busts for this year. So...it's just week 1 and there is a lot of football, I understand that. However, I knew that Jay Cutler doesn't check down, and that is where a lot of Forte's stats came from his rookie year. Also, the Texans coaching staff has been looking for a short-yardage RB to compliment Slaton, but his week 1 futility was more a credit to the revamped Rex Ryan defense of the Jets, than it was to a Slaton slump.

Jake Delhomme....really?!?! Can the Panthers please do something to assure the preservation of what has the potential to be a Hall of Fame career for Steve Smith?

While watching the Raiders/Chargers game on Monday night, I noticed a few things: The Raiders will run, run, run, and then pass to Zach Miller. I suggest picking up Michael Bush if he is still on the waiver wire of your league, or trade for him while his value is still low, especially if you own Darren McFadden. Bush is one McFadden injury away from being a very good RB2 for your team. I also noticed Ladainian Tomlinson on the sidelines a lot nursing a "sprained ankle." He has had one of the most illustrious careers for a RB, but he is no longer a regular FF starter, and with the mileage he has on his body, I would certainly expect him to get dinged up a lot more easily. When he is healthy, you still may want to sit him against tough run defenses. If you drafted him in the first round...well, that is your fault, and you should try desperately to trade him to someone who is still enamored with his namesake and will give you top value in return.

Michael Crabtree is an egotistical moron.

Do you think Romo misses Terrell Owens? The Tampa Bay game was a statement game for him. You may also notice I listed Patrick Crayton as an over achiever from week 1. Three reasons for that: Miles Austin, Sam Hurd, and Martellus Bennett. Roy Williams and Jason Witten are the top 2 receivers on the team. Not only has Crayton been terribly inconsistent throughout his career in Dallas, but he will be fighting those other 3 guys all year for TD and yardage scraps leftover from Williams and Witten. Did I also forget to mention that Marion Barber and Felix Jones are very good receiving RBs?

Here are some defense shout-outs:

The Eagles defense won a lot of fantasy games for owners, but it is too bad they can't face Jake Delhomme again this season.

The Packers defense is for real.

Losing Brian Urlacher will seriously hurt the Bears run defense all year (hello Kevin Smith, Ryan Grant, and Adrian Peterson).

The Giants defense welcomes Osi Umenyiora back with open arms and so do fantasy owners, but watch out for all those injuries to their secondary.

The Jets defense is also for real.

I picked the Texans defense as a sleeper this year, but getting torched by a rookie QB in his first NFL start doesn't look too good for them.