Your Busted!

All of you should be familiar with what busts are. These are players who I predict will have a dramatic decrease in expected production, or flop altogether. Their production could plummet from factors such as bad o-lines, inconsistencies, position competition, or injuries. As the standard goes, there always tends to be at least one first-round bust every year. The first-round bust doesn't necessarily flop but simply does not perform like a first (or second, third, and fourth) round pick should.

Here are the players you should avoid in your drafts...

Rashard Mendenhall (first-round bust)
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: fumbles, passing game, Jonathan Dwyer
~According to the above ADP, he is a second round draft pick on average. However, he is late first-round consideration in pretty much every draft everywhere, and he has been drafted in the first round of every mock draft I have completed so far. It was difficult to label Mendenhall as a first round bust because he finally emerged last season as the stud many thought he would be, and looked like he was going to improve this season with the Steelers renewed commitment to the power running game. A few factors will knock his status back down to earth this season: First, he had a problem with fumbles last year. That is a problem that should be easily solved, but that directly relates to another cause of his first-round bust status: Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer's game is very similar to Mendenhall's game and Dwyer fits very well into the Steelers power rushing attack. If Mendenhall starts to have a problem with fumbles again, we could see Dwyer take some carries away from him. I also expect Dwyer to be a TD vulture, possibly seeing more goalline touches than Mendenhall. Finally, the Steelers passing game has been obliterated this season. Their top WR and Superbowl XLIII MVP was traded away--because of character issues--without any planned replacement, and Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for the first six games of the season. Mendenhall will be facing stacked defensive fronts, with Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon posing little to no threat. Once Big Ben returns to the lineup, Mendenhall will be relying on Heath Miller, the aging Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El, along with the sophomore Mike Wallace and rookie Emmanuel Sanders to keep pressure off of him. Outside of Miller and Ward, none of the other receiving options will be consistently reliable, and Miller and Ward still won't be getting the respect of double-teams. Chances are, he could still see a lot of stacked defensive fronts even after Ben returns.

Brandon Jacobs
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.03/6.02
Primary Causes: Ahmad Bradshaw/Andre Brown, injury concerns, developing WRs
~This may seem like an easy bust prediction since Jacobs busted last year. However, he played through knee problems the entire season. His knee was bad enough that it required arthroscopic surgery once the 2009 season concluded. Many astute owners will take note of Jacobs returning with a better knee and buy into his draft value appearing good. Even though he will be more healthy this year, he will still continue to be injury prone due to his upright running style. You haven't heard the last of him having knee problems. Ahmad Bradshaw got his ankles cleaned out this offseason, and he says they feel better than they ever had. A revitalized Bradshaw, along with Andre Brown (a Derrick Ward clone) returning from an achilles tear, will take carries away from Jacobs to keep him fresh. To top all that off, the passing game is developing rapidly, led by young studs Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, and it will become more prominent. These factors increase Jacob's bust potential.

Donald Driver
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.10/6.09
Primary Causes: age, improved o-line
~Driver will be 35 years old during this season. His age started to show last season when he slowed down noticeably during seven of his last eight regular season games and during the barn burner against the Cardinals in the wild card round of the playoffs. Last season, Greg Jennings didn't perform up to expectations, so Driver picked up the slack for most of the season. That situation isn't as simple as Jennings having an off year. Those correlations can be partially attributed to the offensive line playing poorly last season, mainly due to injuries, and as a result Aaron Rodgers had a lot of pressure in his face all season long. Instead of being able to let Jennings' deep routes develop, Rodgers had to quickly choose the short and intermediate routes of his possession receiver, which was Driver. The Packers o-line improved when they drafted the talented rookie OT Bryan Bulaga from Iowa, and they will be fully healthy to start this season. An upgraded o-line improves protection, which indirectly renders the short and intermediate routes of Driver less necessary for pass-happy Rodgers.

Santana Moss
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.04/7.02
Primary Causes: inconsistent, inconsistent, inconsistent
~I have never liked Moss. I don't think I ever owned him on any of my fantasy teams, so this is not a personal vendetta. Look up the word inconsistent in the dictionary, and there is Santana Moss' mug, trying to look tough. I have never seen a player, who is always ranked fairly high by so many people, gets their hopes and expectations up early in the season, then punch them in the face and kick them while they are down. There have been many occasions where Moss seems like a stud for one or several games straight, then suddenly becomes the wrong end of a horse for at least the following few games. I could pull examples of his inconsistencies from every season of his career (except last year where he was awful in 14 of the 16 games), but instead I will give an example from his best season as a pro (2005). Moss started his 2005 season in elite fashion through the first 6 games, getting over 100 receiving yards in four of them and over 150 yards and 2 TDs in two of those games. Over the next eight games, he never topped 79 receiving yards and only scored 1 TD during that span. That was his best season as a pro and he even produced a very attractive season stat line (84 receptions, 1483 yards, 9 TDs). He has given us much of the same throughout his whole career, and now at the age of 31, why would anyone expect that to change just because Donovan McNabb is his QB?

Santonio Holmes/Braylon Edwards
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): SH 10.02, BE 10.04/SH 8.10, BE 8.09
Primary Causes: run-first team, too many receiving options
~I grouped these two teammates together with obvious good cause. The Jets acquired Holmes after multiple incidents caused him to become expendable for the Steelers. Adding Holmes allowed the Jets offense to look quite incredible with the rest of the pieces already in place. Mark Sanchez has got to be grinning from ear to ear, realizing the formidable receiving options he now has at his disposal. Fantasy owners should not be grinning about this situation. First of all, the Jets are a run-first and run-heavy team. When they take to the air, there will be many options to choose. Holmes and Edwards will be vying to be Sanchez's favorite target, but there is also Jericho Cotchery, the recently emerging Dustin Keller, and two pass-catching RBs in Ladanian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight. By my count, that is too many quality receiving options and too few balls to go around. I can almost guarantee at least one of Holmes or Edwards will bust, and they are both certainly overvalued.

Darren McFadden
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.09/9.03
Primary Causes: injury concern, tackle breaking problems, Michael Bush
~Speed certainly doesn't cure all for an NFL RB. McFadden brings a lot of speed to the table, and what we all thought was huge playmaking capabilities. After two years of injuries, inconsistencies, and disappointment, he has watched Justin Fargas become favored over him, and now Michael Bush will step up and take at least half of the RB touches in Oakland. McFadden will be seen on the field in more passing situations as a pass catcher, while Bush will take over the runs between the tackles. Not only has McFadden been hampered by nagging injuries during his short NFL career, but he has always had issues breaking tackles. If he wants to be able to regain a more featured role, the first thing he needs to work on is running through arm tackles and bouncing off of linebackers and safeties.

Clinton Portis
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.08/9.01
Primary Causes: age, injuries, crowded backfield
~I briefly cataloged his extensive injury history since 2006 in my Returning From Injuries blog entry from March. Basically, his body has taken a beating throughout his career, and he will enter the season just 82 touches shy of 2500 total touches for his career. Chances are good you will see his name fill up the injury reports again. Let's not forget he has company with Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, and the quickly developing Ryan Torain.

Austin Collie
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.07/11.12
Primary Cause: Anthony Gonzalez
~Collie ended last season playing a prominent role in the Colts' run to the Superbowl. Those performances would typically cause a player to be considered a sleeper for the following season, but I am changing my tune on Collie. Simply put, both he and Anthony Gonzalez are in direct competition for the starting slot WR role. I think Gonzalez will beat him out for at least this season. So you think they will simply run more 4 WR and spread sets? No chance. The Colts are famous for play-action off of run formations, like their famous stretch play. When running play-action, are defenses going to bite when there are 4 WRs on the field? Not likely. That means Gonzalez, Collie, and Pierre Garcon will be fighting for time on the field. Garcon is likely to see more time as the wide-out opposite of Reggie Wayne, which leads me to believe he could see more field time than Collie or Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez's chances to be a great come-back player this season, but he will have to bump Collie off of the field in play-action plays. Collie has a bright future. He is still a quality option this season in PPR leagues, and a fantastic prospect in dynasty formats, but for this season in no-PPR, I expect him to have a slump.

Greg Olsen
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.05/12.11
Primary Causes: Mike Martz, poor offensive line
~This bust call is kind of stating the obvious, so I will be blatant. Mike Martz, who is the Bears new offensive coordinator, utilizes TEs in his system primarily as pass-blockers, and rarely as pass-catchers. Martz's exotic 7-step drop pass plays require as much QB protection as possible for the lengthy routes to develop properly. That translates into the TE(s) blocking on most passing plays. It certainly doesn't help that the Bears o-line is horrendous, and there were no major improvements from last season. There is one potential scenario that would resuscitate Olsen's value. That scenario involves Olsen playing different positions on the field as a receiver, while Desmond Clark and Brandon Manumaleuna take on the edge blocking roles. We will know how that may play out during training camp and preseason. If the multiple-role role materializes for Olsen, he may be worth drafting at the end of your draft as a backup TE.

Matt Leinart
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.08/12.12
Primary Causes: poor decision making, inconsistent
~It's really hard to determine exactly what is wrong with Leinart. During the limited playing time he was granted, he mainly struggled. However, there have been a few occasions where he actually looked like the future franchise QB of the Cardinals. However, the bad performances certainly outweighed the good ones. He also tended to be quite turnover prone and had shaky technique. Ultimately, I don't expect that to change for this season, especially since he will be down one reliable WR in Anquan Boldin. Steve Breaston should perform admirably as the second WR but not up to Boldin's standard. I also think Leinart will have too much pressure to try to live up to the standard set by Kurt Warner, which will cause him to make more bad decisions on the field.