Analyze This ~ Week 5

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless Jones got injured. When the Jets traded him to Seattle, who were at the time relying on the undersized Justin Forsett and busted Julius Jones to shoulder the load, it seemed like a perfect opportunity for Leon to breakout. Granted, Leon missed most of training camp due to recovering from his broken leg, but being the workout warrior that he is, his game shape was not an issue once the regular season began. I wasn't expecting Leon to suddenly be a featured RB, especially knowing Pete Carroll's history with RB committees, but I fully expected Carroll to be smart enough to allow Leon to get at least 10-12 touches each game, with performance incentives causing those touches to increase. Now, without ever receiving a vote of confidence from his coaches during his entire NFL career, Leon is known more for his kick returning skills. I just wish for once Leon would put his refreshing humility aside and demand more time on the field with the offense or tell the coaches off. I guess that is kind of a moot point now.

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

These players were pre-season sleepers or waiver wire pickups, that have overachieved tremendously. They pretty much came out of nowhere to dominate the competition during the early stages of the season. I will also include those who have yet to put together multiple big games, but seem primed to breakout. I have listed the stats of the sleeper stars through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players still sleeping are soon to be stars.

Already arrived...

Kyle Orton ~ completed 141 of 213 passes (66.2%), 1733 yards, 8 TDs, 3 ints
Michael Vick (in two full and two half games) ~ completed 59 of 96 passes (61.5%), 799 yards, 6 TDs, 0 ints; 26 runs for 187 yards (7.2 ypc), 1 TD
Arian Foster ~ 96 runs for 562 yards (5.9 ypc), 4 TDs; 13 catches for 154 yards (11.8 ypc), 1 TD
Jahvid Best ~ 68 runs for 241 yards (3.5 ypc), 4 TDs; 25 catches for 254 yards (10.2 ypc), 1 TD
Peyton Hillis ~ 76 runs for 350 yards (4.6 ypc), 4 TDs; 20 catches for 143 yards (7.2 ypc), 1 TD
Brandon Lloyd ~ 30 catches for 589 yards (19.6 ypc), 3 TDs
Austin Collie ~ 37 catches for 446 yards (12.1 ypc), 5 TDs
Malcom Floyd ~ 22 catches for 498 yards (22.6 ypc), 3 TDs
Dustin Keller ~ 21 catches for 268 yards (12.8 ypc), 5 TDs
Zach Miller OAK ~ 28 catches for 340 yards (12.1 ypc), 3 TDs

Arriving soon...

Matthew Stafford ~ injured his shoulder in week 1, will start as soon as week 8, should expect to be better than Shaun Hill
Felix Jones ~ getting more touches, cake-walk schedule against run defenses the rest of the season
Marshawn Lynch ~ starting RB for the Seahawks, better offensive line than the Bills
Johnny Knox ~ top receiving option for Jay Cutler, big-play threat, potent passing system under Mike Martz
Mike Wallace ~ Big Ben is back baby, easy schedule against pass defenses outside of the Ravens, Dolphins, and Saints

Thoughts

~~I've mentioned it before and I'll mention it again...sell Arian Foster now! Maybe you could wait until after he plays the Colts again in week 8, but no reason to chance it. He has a stud's price-tag and you could probably work out a deal to get Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson by selling Foster. If the fact that his two huge games came against poor run defenses (Colts, Raiders) doesn't convince you that his value has plateaued, then chew on this...he has games coming up against the Chiefs (this weekend), Chargers, Jets, Titans twice, Ravens, and Broncos, all very, very stout run defenses.

~~I had more thoughts, forgot them, on to this next week.