COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Official Rookie/Free Agent Draft 2011

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=2011draft

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Mark Ingram, NO

Relentless and physical. He may not be the most electric RB prospect to enter the NFL draft, but he was made for the NFL. He possesses elite vision and awareness, sheds tackles, fully utilizes blockers, is strong and physical, and gives every ounce of effort with every run. He is not as fast or quick as you would hope for in a top prospect, but the same things were said about Emmitt Smith, who Ingram compares favorably to. Ingram was never a prototypical workhorse RB at Alabama, but I contend that just means he is more fresh. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (if he is not cut or traded) will not be forgotten about, but they will certainly need to step aside. Expect Ingram to be the starter, but don't expect him to be used as much as the likes of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson.

1.02 ~ WR Julio Jones, ATL

Athletic and fearless. I'm not really surprised that he got chosen before A.J. Green. Jones exploded at the combine

School's Out

Every season, mistakes are made, busts are drafted, bad strategies are adopted, bad habits are repeated, and lineup decisions that have been obsessively debated over for an entire week result in wrong decisions. There are certain mistakes that even the cagiest of fantasy veterans make, even though they try to avoid them. Somehow, certain bad habits seem to always haunt you, even though you try your best to avoid them. Every year after those bad habits and choices occur, you should take note...I mean literally write them down somewhere on your drafting and general fantasy football material, so you will have a blatant reminder to avoid those choices during your next draft and/or the following season.

Here is a short list of the more important things we learned or re-learned from this fantasy football season...

~~Never again will I target or consider drafting Steve Smith of the Panthers unless by some major transaction he ends up with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees as his QB. I drafted him in one of my leagues (12-team, PPR) at pick 3.07, and even though I wasn't crazy about drafting him, the top tiers of WRs ran dry quickly and he seemed like the best available WR on the board. What kills me most is that even though I targeted (and drafted) Joseph Addai in the fourth round, Hakeem Nicks was on the board when I picked Smith.

~~Although I targeted less than half of these players in my 2010 drafts, I will put Steven Jackson, Randy Moss (obviously), Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Carson Palmer in that conversation of no longer targeting...ever again.

~~Don't take a defense early. Quality undrafted waiver wire pickups this season included the Raiders, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, Chiefs, Falcons, and Cardinals. Instead of burning a mid-round pick on the Vikings, Cowboys, or Ravens you could have taken a chance on some quality sleeper options like Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Jay Cutler, or Matt Ryan. Every season, there are always several free agent defenses that quickly play themselves into the top 10 of fantasy defenses.

~~Kickers are solely reserved for your last round. This is more of a reminder than something that

Fantasy Playoffs Preview (Weeks 11-13)

Either you're in, or you temporarily lost your taste for football. It's playoff time! Chances are if you scored the likes of Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, or Kyle Orton off of the waiver wire, you are in the playoffs. If you were savvy enough to draft the likes of Arian Foster, Hakeem Nicks, Philip Rivers, Dwayne Bowe, or Terrell Owens, you are probably wearing your dancing shoes. If you happened to be like one owner in my keeper league, who happened to keep Antonio Gates in the sixth round, draft Arian Foster in the second round, draft Peyton Hillis in the fifteenth round, pick up Michael Vick off of waivers after week 1 (and right after Andy Reid declared Kevin Kolb to continue being the starter once he got healthy following the concussion he suffered in the week 1 game versus the Packers), and trade Maurice Jones-Drew for Calvin Johnson and Ladainian Tomlinson before the week 4 games, chances are you a rolling pretty damn high into the playoffs with a 13-0 record and about to destroy many league records held by me.

Whatever the case, if you are in the playoffs, you should be obsessing about your roster, potential free agent pickups, matchups of not only this weekend but also of the entire fantasy playoffs (especially for fantasy defenses), and how the 13-0 team can be upset. This is the time of year where you start your studs, but many players can be benched for other players with great matchups. Just because you have been winning games on strong performances from Brandon Lloyd, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Steve Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Vernon Davis doesn't mean you should start them automatically. This is the time of the year where matchups are more important than ever. Hopefully, you were savvy enough to stock up your roster with players having great matchups during these next three weeks. The owner who thinks he should roll with all his top players throughout the playoffs, no matter what the matchups are is likely to come away disappointed, unless your starting roster is Michael Vick, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gates, and the Eagles defense like the owner in my league I mentioned above. I will try to give you some advice on certain players in the playoffs to increase your chances of winning.

Unbenchable Players

Aaron Rodgers
~~Once again we find him at the top of the QB stat sheets. The Packers lost their running game, so Rodgers took it upon himself to single-handedly dismantle his opponents. His domination will continue into the playoffs, especially in weeks 14 and 15 against the Lions and Patriots.

Michael Vick
~~There are many words to describe his season like unbelievable, phenomenal, redemption, and unstoppable. He is the second best QB in fantasy, and he has only played in seven and two half games out of the twelve. He can't be contained. Unbenchable is stating the blatantly obvious.

Philip Rivers
~~Undrafted rookie WR Seyi Ajirotutu. Do I need to elaborate?

One Thought

~~I must apologize. My last blog included some thoughts that were about three weeks old, specifically the two thoughts on the Lions. I was so anxious to publish that blog (finally) that I didn't get a chance to thoroughly proofread it. I will recant my comments on essentially the entire Lions RB situation. Jahvid Best is no longer a viable fantasy starter with multiple turf toe injuries, and his workload is now being drastically reduced to help him heal. Once the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, expect Best to be an IR candidate. Also, Kevin Smith was back and is now back on the IR after thumb surgery. Look for Maurice Morris to get the "Lions share" (ha...ha...ha) of the carries for the rest of the season, or until Best is able to run his cuts properly. Morris is actually a solid flex option.

Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate

Bye Week

I am currently on my bye week. Since I am doing this blog just for fun, I have taken a week off for some extra free time and to take care of other business. I will post a special "double edition" following this weekend, and make some predictions regarding the NFL playoffs and Superbowl. We are at the halfway point in the NFL season, and I typically like to make Superbowl predictions and playoff speculations at this time.

However, I will leave you with one thought...

~~It's time to start thinking outside the box this season. There are very few must-start-no-matter-the-matchup players in the league. In fact, there seems to be even less compared to previous seasons. They include Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (even though I predict second half disappointment from him), Kyle Orton (doesn't feel right saying that), Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster (even with his tough schedule looming), Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd (doesn't feel right saying that either), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis. More than ever, don't be afraid to play matchups if one of your regular starters not mentioned above has a tough matchup, and you have a solid replacement option with a very favorable matchup.

Check back early next week. I will attempt (as usual) to post my blog earlier than what I have been each week.

Analyze This ~ Week 7

Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.

Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.

I want to take a moment to elaborate on some of the bust predictions I made last week. First of all, those players I listed I considered busts or eventual busts according to their preseason expectations. Maurice Jones-Drew is one in a very small handful of RBs getting a workhorse load, averaging over 20 touches (21.7) per game. Given the multitude of RB committees in the NFL, the few remaining workhorses are workhorses for a reason...they can keep healthy, handle a heavy load, and are playmakers extraordinaire. Therefore, after six weeks (now seven) I would certainly expect Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice to at least be in the top 10 of RBs. Anything less, and they are busts, especially since all those RBs were top 5 fantasy picks. MJD made my bust list (and not my

Analyze This ~ Week 6

I was just watching the Monday Night Football pregame on ESPN. First of all, how is it possible that anybody can take Matt Millen seriously? Why do I have to continue to see his empty head on TV talking football? Why does Stuart Scott keep asking Millen to evaluate certain players? We already know how "great" Millen's player evaluations are. His draft record with the Lions proves that. For example, Scott just asked Millen which current NFL RB would he build a team around. Millen responded quickly and emphatically "Adrian Peterson." Let me take a moment to calm down a bit.................still pissed...................


.........With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Millen had the chance to draft Peterson in 2007. Instead of trading down to any one of a multitude of teams willing to trade up to get Calvin and draft Peterson, he put his miserable track record of drafting first round WRs to the test. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and Calvin is almost everything he was scouted to be, but I would much rather have a stud RB over a stud WR to build around, all day, every day. The moron even said it, even though in 2007 he passed on trading down and drafting AD. So...maybe the Lions did need a WR to compliment Roy Williams. I guess Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, or Steve Breaston couldn't fit that bill. We could have had AD (or even stud LT Joe Thomas) and one of those aforementioned WRs in the 2007 Draft. Millen has no business talking player evaluations and scouting. For that matter, his face would look better with a tread print of one of my Timberland boots on it.

...Yes, it still stings to think of the joke called the "Millen Era."

On the Path to Bust City

As you have already deducted by the sub-title of this section, these are the busts. Some players have already busted (according to their preseason expectations) and likely won't improve the rest of the year. Others are looking like they could be fine, but they will eventually let down their owners. I have listed the stats of the busts through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players who have not yet busted are soon to be flops or have injuries cost them extensive amounts of time. Players not listed (I think they will turn it around) include Brett Favre, DeAngelo Willams, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith CAR, Randy Moss, Heath Miller, and Owen Daniels.

Already arrived...

Analyze This ~ Week 5

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless

Analyze This ~ Week 3 and Week 4

~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~

This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...



Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world

 ~~Kyle Orton is a top 3 QB with no WR1 or receiving TE on the Broncos roster, which leads me to this...

~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.

~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.

~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.

~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.

~~Where has Ray Rice gone?

~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.

~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and