Now after that shameless and free endorsement, I will talk about week 4 a bit, sleepers and busts, and since this will be posted after the Braylon Edwards trade and Michael Crabtree signing, maybe I will say a word or two about the fantasy implications involved with those two WRs.
You Will See Much More of This...
Peyton Manning ~ over 300 yards passing again (31/41 completions, 353 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 int)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 7 catches, 11 targets (for 91 yards and 2 TDs)
Ray Rice ~ well over 4.0 yards per run (9.4 in week 4, 6.0 for the season)
Tony Romo ~ 2 or more turnovers (1 int, 1 FL week 4)
The Broncos winning ~ so maybe one or two of my toes found their way on the bandwagon after the win against Dallas. The Patriots will test them severly this weekend, but some of the matchups remaining include twice against the Chargers (their defense apparently blows), twice against the Chiefs, the Redskins, and the Raiders. They can win 4 or 5 of those. [Fantasy implications - Broncos defense is good, Kyle Orton is servicable, Brandon Marshall will have a few big games]
...And Much Less of This
Adrian Peterson ~ 2.2 yards per run, 55 yards, less than 10 FF points
Marques Colston ~ 2 catches, 33 yards (got 6 targets, respect Darrell Revis)
Drew Brees ~ 7 FF points (stating the obvious, but after back-to-back terrible outings, some people are concerned....don't be)
Jermichael Finley ~ 6 catches (7 targets), 128 yards, 1 TD
The Titans losing ~ 0-4??? Really??? Way to much talent there to continue losing, but....here come the Colts, uh-oh. [Fantasy implications - the Titans defense will continue to disappoint, passing game will continue to flourish with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and yes...Chris Johnson]
On the Path to Sleeper Stardom
Here are some really good surprises so far this season. Some of these guys were probably targeted by you as sleepers, while others caught just about everybody off guard. There are also several players who I believe started out hot, but will cool down as the season progresses. Those guys you will find "not listed."
~Steve Smith...no not that one
~Joe Flacco
~Ray Rice
~David Garrard
~Mike Sims-Walker
~Cedric Benson
~Brent Celek
~Kenny Britt
[Not Listed - Jerome Harrison, Willis McGahee, Fred Jackson, Ricky Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, Mario Manningham, Jericho Cotchery, Pierre Garcon, Vernon Davis]
On the Path to Bust City
These guys have already pissed a lot of people off, and I don't think much will change throughout the season. Similar to the sleeper section, those players I have "not listed" are the players who will improve on their early season performances. The special case in that category is the Panthers' Steve Smith. There is nothing wrong with him, but rather, his bad games are directly tied to Jake Delhomme's performances most of the time. He will have some really big games, but will also have some really bad games when Delhomme doesn't take care of the ball.
~Eddie Royal
~Ladanian Tomlinson
~Tony Romo
~Matt Cassel
~Larry Johnson
~Roy Williams (do I really need to include his middle initial E?)
~Trent Edwards
~Steve Slaton
~Clinton Portis
~Terrell Owens
~Derrick Ward
~Jason Witten (predicated on Roy Williams busting as the Cowboys' top receiver)
~Entire Raiders offense, starting with JaMarcus Russell as the first domino
[Not Listed - Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith...the first one]
The Braylon Edwards Trade
Braylon Edwards getting traded to the Jets created a small rift in the fantasy world, not a big rift. His value this year will increase with the Jets, but not to the level of the 2007 stud. He will be more of a flex WR for your lineup. The Jets are still a run-first team and Mark Sanchez will still make rookie mistakes. In keeper/dynasty circles, don't go crazy over trying to acquire Edwards because a new start doesn't necessarily mean no drops and a ton of targets. In fact, he should be a huge sell high candidate for the dynasty owners who have Edwards. As long as the Jets have a strong defense, Jericho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and a run-first policy under Rex Ryan, Edwards will not be a stud, but he could potentially elevate into the WR2 category as soon as the end of this season.
Here are some other fantasy implications involving players from both the Jets and the Browns: Jericho Cotchery's value should stay about the same. Dustin Keller's value should also stay about the same, since it is currently low. I thought his value would increase as the season progresses, but with Edwards in the mix, I don't see his value moving much, at least this year. Mark Sanchez will take a small boost in value this year, and a large boost in value for dynasty. As for the Browns, their team has been a fantasy wasteland, but with Derek Anderson at the helm, Mohammad Massaquoi looked very good in week 4, and is suddenly the team's top WR. Taper your expectations for him though, but he is now a nice sleeper to own. I really don't think any other players from the Browns have value fluctuations from this trade, including Anderson who will be nothing more than a bye-week replacement when the matchup is good. There is a slim chance we could see a bit of the 2007 Derek Anderson, but I highly doubt it.
The Michael Crabtree Signing
The ego-maniac has finally signed, and not a single 49ers player gives a rat's...you know what. He may have been the premier WR out of the 2009 draft, but after missing all of the offseason programs, training camp and preseason, he is pretty much out of the loop this year. Don't go crazy over picking him up off of the waiver wire in redraft leagues because he won't do much this year. He is certainly worth a roster spot in keeper leagues, only if you can keep 4 or more players, and only if you keep those players in the rounds they were drafted (he would count as a last round pick). Don't forget the 49ers have been winning without him and still are a run-first...second and third...team under Singletary. In dynasty circles, his value is certainly less than where he was most likely drafted as a top 5 pick. However, he could still have a very bright future, if he learns how to check his ego.
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