Analyze This ~ Week 6

Week 6 brought us a lot of action. Offenses everywhere exploded like 4th of July fireworks. It seemed like no NFL team knew how to play good defense except the Packers, the Patriots, the Cardinals, and....the Raiders???...against the Eagles?!?! Maybe that pigeon really helped the Raiders out much more than we know. Just to give you an idea of how anomalous this week was, sixteen of the twenty-eight teams playing had over 300 yards of total offense and nine of those teams went over 400 yards. The biggest explosion of the weekend belonged to the New England Bradys. Do you remember that phenominal year of 2007 when the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season, broke all sorts of single season team and player records for scoring and TDs?...When they ran up the score, attempted to convert 4th downs instead of kicking field goals even when they were up by like 30 TDs? In this last Sunday's game versus the Titans, they set a club record for their highest yardage output in a single game (619). That's right, they're still setting offensive records.

As with every season, there have been nice surprises, and terrible disappointments by now. Some of this year's sleepers have risen to the level of stud, where you can't really bench them even against tough matchups. On the other hand, you have your classic case of the busts, but there are a few colossal busts this year where some of the biggest names have been plagued with atrocious performances all year and should no longer be started just because of their namesake and potential.

You Can No Longer Bench Me...

Here are some backup QBs and flex, third, or fourth RBs and WRs that....were still finding their way to your bench for bad matchups. Not any more. These players have risen into fantasy stardom and have proven to all their owners that they cannot be benched all season, even against tough matchups.

If you drafted Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, or Joe Flacco as your backup to the usual suspects (Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady) you are headed down a path to blockbuster trade glory. Since the former backup QBs are now proving to be studs, I would suggest trading the big name QB because they will get you much more in return, but still put up similar numbers to Schaub, Big Ben, or Flacco.

Mike Sims-Walker is by far the most pleasant surprise because I doubt he was drafted in any redraft/keeper league with an 18-man roster or less. In fact, he was relegated behind Troy Williamson to start the season, until Williamson immediately found his way to the IR after week 1.

Matt Schaub @ CIN ~ 28/40 completions, 392 yards, 4 TDs, 1 int
Ray Rice @ MIN ~ 10 rushes, 77 yards, 2 TDs; 10 catches (11 targets), 117 yards
Mike Sims-Walker v STL ~ 9 catches (11 targets), 120 yards
Ben Roethlisberger v CLE ~ 23/35 completions, 417 yards, 2 TDs, 1 int, 1 FL
Hines Ward v CLE ~ 8 catches (12 targets), 159 yards, 1 TD
Joe Flacco @ MIN ~ 28/43 completions, 385 yards, 2 TDs
Jay Cutler @ ATL ~ 27/43 completions, 300 yards, 2 TDs, 2 ints
Cedric Benson v HOU ~ 16 rushes, 44 yards, 1 TD; 2 catches (2 targets), 1 yard

...And I Need to Sit Until I Prove My Worth

The two big ones here are Steve Smith (CAR) and Terrell Owens. Smith was drafted by many as their top WR and TO was a standard WR2 choice. Unfortunately, they are relying on Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards to get the roc in their hands. Smith's situation is the worst one because he still has all the talent and ability, but no other WR or TE on the Panthers' roster poses any receiving threat whatsoever. It also hasn't helped that the running game struggled to start the season. Basically, he currently draws more attention to himself than any other single offensive skill player not a QB and it's not like he has Peyton Manning to thread the needle constantly. However, even though Smith had a dismal performance versus the lowly Buccaneers, the running game took off and carried the team. That is a wonderful sign for Smith owners because that is a sign of future successful play-actions plays to make the safties bite. For now, Smith has to ride your bench until he can prove he can have two consecutive solid performances....then sell him before his tough schedule down the stretch.

One of the bigger surprises, to me at least, is Kevin Walter. Sure he was not drafted to be anything more than a flex player, but Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels are all cashing in stud performances and even Jacoby Jones is getting some love. This leads me to believe that Walter's hamstring is tweeked a bit more than he is letting on.

Larry Johnson is still getting a workhorse load, but he is keeping his yards per carry average well below 3.0, 2.7 to be exact, and he has 0 TDs on the year. Many people still believe that because he is getting so many touches he will eventually have a big game when he finds the endzone. I will suggest that you keep him on your bench until that big game, and then still keep him on your bench afterwards, or better yet, trade him if he does achieve a bit more value. Currently, his value is no more than a trade deal sweetener to help push a trade through involving other players.

Anyways, here they are...

Steve Smith (CAR) @ TB ~ 1 catch (5 targets), 4 yards
Terrell Owens @ NYJ ~ 3 catches (8 targets), 13 yards; 1 run, 9 yards
Dustin Keller v BUF ~ 2 catches (10 targets), 16 yards
Willis McGahee @ MIN ~ 7 rushes, 3 yards
Kevin Walter @ CIN ~ 3 catches (4 targets), 29 yards
Julius Jones v ARI ~ 5 rushes, 5 yards
Matt Hasselbeck v ARI ~ 10/29 completions, 112 yards, 1 int, 1 FL
Larry Johnson @ WAS ~ 23 rushes, 83 yards; 3 catches (4 targets), 12 yards

Perfectly Bad Shout Outs

The Titans are better off going for a top 5 draft pick than trying to regain some dignity by winning multiple games. The Patriots unceremoniously took any remaining dignity away from them, and Jeff Fisher certainly didn't help by donning the Peyton Manning jersey at a charity function. They are certainly in need of a QB (not Vince Young), so why not get one of the top QBs out of the draft?

The Rams are officially on their way to joining the ranks of 16-game perfection with the 2008 Lions, and looking even worse offensively...I'm sorry Steven Jackson.

As the last shout out, the Buccaneers' (understand the heading of this section now?) ownership have got to be regretting firing John Gruden by now. At least they aren't as bad as the Rams. The Rams have basically one offensive player...a studly one...while the Bucs have Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Cadillac Williams, and Derrick Ward, who they apparently don't care how much money he is worth to them. They have just enough talent to squeak out a win or two, as long as their nameless defense can step it up for a game. By the way, I dare you to try and name one defensive player from the Bucs outside of Aqib Talib, old man Ronde Barber, and for you IDP fantasy footballaholics, Barrett Ruud. Just try it...no peeking.

Analyze This ~ Week 4

I love the NFL Red Zone channel. Meanwhile, I scoff at the Direct TV NFL Sunday Ticket package (even though I have cable) who charges a whopping $299.95 a year to get the broadcast of every NFL game. For no extra charge, NFL Network, via my Comcast service (they are still "cable Nazis"), gives me a channel that allows me to see every single important play in every Sunday afternoon game either live or slightly delayed. Basically, it's like having every game broadcast, but some dude changes the channel for me at the most important times....FOR FREE!!! My only fear is that the indent in my couch may get a little deeper than it should. Thank you NFL Network...to hell with you CBS and FOX local affiliates. I will watch my Lions...at least until their opponent drops a 40 on them, thank you Bears...but I will certainly be spending a lot of time on the Red Zone channel.

Now after that shameless and free endorsement, I will talk about week 4 a bit, sleepers and busts, and since this will be posted after the Braylon Edwards trade and Michael Crabtree signing, maybe I will say a word or two about the fantasy implications involved with those two WRs.

You Will See Much More of This...

Peyton Manning ~ over 300 yards passing again (31/41 completions, 353 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 int)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 7 catches, 11 targets (for 91 yards and 2 TDs)
Ray Rice ~ well over 4.0 yards per run (9.4 in week 4, 6.0 for the season)
Tony Romo ~ 2 or more turnovers (1 int, 1 FL week 4)
The Broncos winning ~ so maybe one or two of my toes found their way on the bandwagon after the win against Dallas. The Patriots will test them severly this weekend, but some of the matchups remaining include twice against the Chargers (their defense apparently blows), twice against the Chiefs, the Redskins, and the Raiders. They can win 4 or 5 of those. [Fantasy implications - Broncos defense is good, Kyle Orton is servicable, Brandon Marshall will have a few big games]

...And Much Less of This

Adrian Peterson ~ 2.2 yards per run, 55 yards, less than 10 FF points
Marques Colston ~ 2 catches, 33 yards (got 6 targets, respect Darrell Revis)
Drew Brees ~ 7 FF points (stating the obvious, but after back-to-back terrible outings, some people are concerned....don't be)
Jermichael Finley ~ 6 catches (7 targets), 128 yards, 1 TD
The Titans losing ~ 0-4??? Really??? Way to much talent there to continue losing, but....here come the Colts, uh-oh. [Fantasy implications - the Titans defense will continue to disappoint, passing game will continue to flourish with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and yes...Chris Johnson]

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

Here are some really good surprises so far this season. Some of these guys were probably targeted by you as sleepers, while others caught just about everybody off guard. There are also several players who I believe started out hot, but will cool down as the season progresses. Those guys you will find "not listed."

~Steve Smith...no not that one
~Joe Flacco
~Ray Rice
~David Garrard
~Mike Sims-Walker
~Cedric Benson
~Brent Celek
~Kenny Britt
[Not Listed - Jerome Harrison, Willis McGahee, Fred Jackson, Ricky Williams, Rashard Mendenhall, Mario Manningham, Jericho Cotchery, Pierre Garcon, Vernon Davis]

On the Path to Bust City

These guys have already pissed a lot of people off, and I don't think much will change throughout the season. Similar to the sleeper section, those players I have "not listed" are the players who will improve on their early season performances. The special case in that category is the Panthers' Steve Smith. There is nothing wrong with him, but rather, his bad games are directly tied to Jake Delhomme's performances most of the time. He will have some really big games, but will also have some really bad games when Delhomme doesn't take care of the ball.

~Eddie Royal
~Ladanian Tomlinson
~Tony Romo
~Matt Cassel
~Larry Johnson
~Roy Williams (do I really need to include his middle initial E?)
~Trent Edwards
~Steve Slaton
~Clinton Portis
~Terrell Owens
~Derrick Ward
~Jason Witten (predicated on Roy Williams busting as the Cowboys' top receiver)
~Entire Raiders offense, starting with JaMarcus Russell as the first domino
[Not Listed - Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Matt Forte, Brandon Jacobs, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith...the first one]

The Braylon Edwards Trade

Braylon Edwards getting traded to the Jets created a small rift in the fantasy world, not a big rift. His value this year will increase with the Jets, but not to the level of the 2007 stud. He will be more of a flex WR for your lineup. The Jets are still a run-first team and Mark Sanchez will still make rookie mistakes. In keeper/dynasty circles, don't go crazy over trying to acquire Edwards because a new start doesn't necessarily mean no drops and a ton of targets. In fact, he should be a huge sell high candidate for the dynasty owners who have Edwards. As long as the Jets have a strong defense, Jericho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and a run-first policy under Rex Ryan, Edwards will not be a stud, but he could potentially elevate into the WR2 category as soon as the end of this season.

Here are some other fantasy implications involving players from both the Jets and the Browns: Jericho Cotchery's value should stay about the same. Dustin Keller's value should also stay about the same, since it is currently low. I thought his value would increase as the season progresses, but with Edwards in the mix, I don't see his value moving much, at least this year. Mark Sanchez will take a small boost in value this year, and a large boost in value for dynasty. As for the Browns, their team has been a fantasy wasteland, but with Derek Anderson at the helm, Mohammad Massaquoi looked very good in week 4, and is suddenly the team's top WR. Taper your expectations for him though, but he is now a nice sleeper to own. I really don't think any other players from the Browns have value fluctuations from this trade, including Anderson who will be nothing more than a bye-week replacement when the matchup is good.  There is a slim chance we could see a bit of the 2007 Derek Anderson, but I highly doubt it.

The Michael Crabtree Signing

The ego-maniac has finally signed, and not a single 49ers player gives a rat's...you know what. He may have been the premier WR out of the 2009 draft, but after missing all of the offseason programs, training camp and preseason, he is pretty much out of the loop this year. Don't go crazy over picking him up off of the waiver wire in redraft leagues because he won't do much this year. He is certainly worth a roster spot in keeper leagues, only if you can keep 4 or more players, and only if you keep those players in the rounds they were drafted (he would count as a last round pick). Don't forget the 49ers have been winning without him and still are a run-first...second and third...team under Singletary. In dynasty circles, his value is certainly less than where he was most likely drafted as a top 5 pick. However, he could still have a very bright future, if he learns how to check his ego.

Analyze This ~ Week 3

--For my currently very few fans, I apologize for not being able to post my week 3 analysis. The little time I have to work on this blog (mainly at night after my wife and 2 daughters are sleeping) has been absorbed by my girls being sick and needing all of my attention and comforting during the night. I'm sure you guys are certainly more worried about looking toward week 4 right now. I should be able to blog next week more easily. What you see following this, is part of the rough copy intro to my analysis, which I started Tuesday--

Three weeks gone, and so should be a majority of the season's flukey outcomes that are typically associated with the first two or three weeks. I have noticed throughout the years that many unpredictable things happen during this initial run of the season. Many players of lesser talent are completely jacked up on adrenaline, QBs and WRs are working out their timing routes, new coaches are figuring out how their teams play together and which plays work better than others, offensive lines with new members are learning how to play together, and basically a lot of kinks are worked out of players and plays. You will see a lot of very good teams like Carolina and Tennessee have slow starts while learning that some things have changed and some things should change from the previous year, or maybe some things that have changed didn't need to.

You Will See Much More of This...

...And Much Less of This

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

On the Path to Bust City