Analyze This ~ Week 2

Two weeks down, fourteen more glorious fantasy weeks to go. Now that two weeks are recorded in the books, NFL teams will start to settle down, find their mojo, and players will start to become more transparent as far as what kind of fantasy performances they will give your team and how well they can perform against tough defenses.

I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore gain a total of over 150 yards, or how rare it is to see Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin have a 3 FF point output in any game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Jahvid Best ~ 9 receptions (14 targets)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 105 receiving yards
Kyle Orton ~ 307 passing yards
Chris Cooley ~ double digit FF points (12)
Matt Ryan ~ 3 TDs/0 ints
Malcom Floyd ~ 31.7 yards per catch average
Aaron Hernandez ~ 6 targets (6 receptions)
Mike Williams TB ~ double digit FF points (11)
Deon Butler ~ 5 receptions (8 targets)
Brandon Jackson ~ 2.9 yards per rush average
Matt Cassel ~ under 10 FF points (3)
Donald Driver ~ 38 receiving yards
Louis Murphy ~ 10 targets (6 receptions)

...And Much Less of This

LeSean McCoy ~ 30 FF points
Michael Vick ~ 108.0 passer rating
Kevin Walter ~ 11 targets (11 receptions)
Jay Cutler ~ 0 ints
Brandon Pettigrew ~ 108 receiving yards
Steve Smith NYG ~ 35 receiving yards
Chad Henne ~ 15 pass attempts (9 completions)
Donald Brown ~ 16 rushes
Hakeem Nicks ~ 2 receptions (5 targets)
Felix Jones ~ 9 total touches (7 runs/2 catches)
Dez Bryant ~ 2 targets (2 receptions)
Jeremy Maclin ~ 26 receiving yards

Thoughts

~The Cardinals offense without Kurt Warner (and Anquan Boldin) is an absolute mess. Look for

Just a Thought ~ Vincent Jackson's Destination

After observing the sputtering Vikings passing offense today with a hobbled Percy Harvin and a lack of Sidney Rice, is there any doubt in anyone's mind that they will trade for Vincent Jackson? Granted Brett Favre completed 22 of 36 passes (with 3 interceptions), but they were mostly short and intermediate passes. Visanthe Shaincoe was his leading receiver for the second consecutive week in both catches and yards, and that is not a good sign for any team, even if it's Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates. Rice is expected to return to the field somewhere around week 8 to week 10, and there has already been some inside information saying his recovery is not proceeding as quickly as it was expected to.

It is very obvious the Vikings are in a "win now" mode. Their entire Super Bowl hopes rely on Favre being their QB (they haven't bothered to draft a quality QB prospect in the last few years), and Brad Childress has been on the hot seat since before he originally convinced Favre to join the Packers' division rival. Jackson has been asking for an extremely high salary--too high for the Chargers and too high for any team to vehemently pursue him--and the Vikings may suddenly be desperate enough to pony up the cash after a dismal 0-2 start. They need a big deep threat WR.

As a Jackson owner in my money keeper league (drafted him in the seventh round and have the option to keep him next year), I have heard all the rumors of the Vikings, Seahawks, Brown, Redskins, and Rams being in the V-Jax sweepstakes and have been strongly pulling for the WR1-less Redskins to pay for his services. From a fantasy perspective, joining the Vikings right now would return Jackson to WR1 status with the ultimate gun-slinger as his QB, but the inevitable return of Rice would cloud that status. Joining the Redskins would assure Jackson owners of owning a top fantasy WR into the fantasy playoffs, since the Redskins don't currently have a true WR1 for Donovan McNabb.

Given the recent Vikings loss, helped along by the paltry passing offense, it seems inevitable that Jackson will be a Minnesota Viking before Wednesday afternoon, which is the deadline for his suspension to be reduced to four games instead of six if traded. If that happens, it is scary to think of what kind of noise the Vikings will make in the NFL once Rice is fully healthy.

Analyze This ~ Week 1

I am really furious that NFL Redzone is now a service I have to pay for. The cable network I pay for made progress before last season when arbitration caused the NFL Network to be included in the regular lineup. Last season that included the NFL Redzone channel, owned and operated by NFL Network. This year, I find out the hard way that I no longer have NFL Redzone in my regular lineup. Instead of enjoying every minute of football I can possibly cram into my head from the first kickoff, while paying close attention to my revamped Lions team, I have to spend about twenty minutes on the phone with my ridiculous cable network to work out the financial details of how I can get the NFL Redzone without paying an extra $8 per month. Needless to say, I will not go an NFL season without my NFL Redzone channel. Have I mentioned that I love what they do?

Typically, the first one or two weeks of the NFL season involves a lot of fluky plays, performances, and outcomes. This first week was certainly no different. Players are jacked up on adrenaline, certain plays still have kinks to work out, timing between QBs and receivers require fine tuning, and generally, teams need to find their identity. I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning score over 20 fantasy football (FF) points, or how rare it is to see Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and Ray Rice have a 2.2 or less yards per carry average in any given game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Anquan Boldin ~ 110 receiving yards
Jay Cutler ~ over 300 passing yards (372 total)
Eddie Royal ~ 8 catches (10 targets)
Roddy White ~ 12+ targets (23 total!!!)
Visanthe Shaincoe ~ TDs (1 total)
Chris Cooley ~ 6 catches (9 targets)
Dez Bryant ~ 12 targets (8 catches)
Mike Wallace ~ 31.0 yards per catch average
Todd Heap ~ 6 catches (11 targets)
Matt Forte ~ 2.9 yards per run average
Knowshon Moreno ~ 60 rushing yards
Justin Forsett ~ 10 total touches (7 runs/3 catches)
Peyton Hillis & Jerome Harrison ~ 50/50 split of carries (9 each)
Reggie Bush ~ 7 touches (2 runs/5 catches)
Lee Evans ~ 3 FF points

...and Much Less of This

Through the Wire

I have already explained my lack of time for blogging over these last two weeks or so, and this piece will also result in dramatic abbreviation. I was hoping to be able to post this waiver wire article before the start of the season, but time has flown for me.

These players are the players who have gone mainly undrafted, and I believe they will all have some sort of fantasy impact in either small parts of the season or throughout the season. Some will step up when a player ahead of them on the depth chart gets injured, while others are simply overlooked.

Here are the players you should be adding to your scout team...

Louis Murphy ~ the top WR for Jason Campbell.

Mike Thomas ~ performed well his rookie year, and has had nothing but high praise coming into this season. He is a wonderful PPR sleeper.

Jake Delhomme ~ has regained the little bit of arm strength he lacked last season.

Jason Campbell ~ always overlooked, but ended last season with very good performances.

Leonard Weaver ~ is a Mike Bell injury away from being the regular short-yardage/goalline RB in Philadelphia.

Keiland Williams ~ has Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart, which causes me to be optimistic about his chances of getting on the field during the season.

Early Doucet ~ ended last year with hot performances, and could potentially outperform Steve Breaston.

Brandon LaFell ~ he will be the second WR and second overall receiving option in Carolina.

Deon Butler ~ Deion Branch is very injury prone, and Butler will step up when Branch is out of the lineup.

Josh Morgan ~ in his third year, and is always overlooked in drafts. He is an excellent

Breakouts

Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.

Here are this year's breakouts...

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.

Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of

Wake Up, Sleepy Head!

The next value group includes what is obviously the most popular category of value players--the sleepers. Every single fantasy owner, expert, fantasy site, and their moms have a list or an idea of who their favorite sleepers are. In general terms, a sleeper is a player who will have unexpected success and has the potential to drastically overachieve. More specifically, sleepers are usually found in the mid-rounds and later in your drafts, and they are typically players who are young, unproven, and/or lacking any form of consistent success in the NFL. Furthermore, this group may include players who unexpectedly breakout, players who greatly outperform their draft pick, and no-name players who become solid fantasy starters. However, this group may also include players who stay at or below the value of their draft pick. The trick is to find those sleepers who have the most favorable situations and motivation. Unfortunately, a few of these sleeper options have become so popular that their ADP has improved over the last month or so, effectively lowering their value in drafts.

Here are the players who I like to be successful sleeper options. I have also listed what their potential best fantasy output and potential role on your fantasy team could be...

Jahvid Best
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.03/4.05
Primary Reasons to Like: unbelievable quickness and speed, preferred over Kevin Smith, playmaker extraordinaire, Lions starter and possible featured RB
Potential: top ten RB, definite regular starter, occasional huge games

Arian Foster
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.08/5.10
Primary Reasons to Like: Ben Tate is on IR, Slaton is still struggling, fits into zone-blocking scheme, will get majority of RB touches, 2009 hot season-ending performance
Potential: solid RB2, regular starter, consistent output
~Ben Tate broke his ankle during the first game of the preseason, causing the Texans to place him on injured reserve. Tate was being groomed to be the starter and potential featured RB in the Texans zone-blocking scheme. Foster, who is also an adept runner in a zone-blocking scheme does not possess the speed and quickness that Tate had, but he is quickly proving he is ready to take on a bigger role. He already turned

Underrated

I will now focus on the players who have good draft value. Underrated, sleeper, and breakout players are all excellent draft targets. Unfortunately, many of them will be drafted to other teams, so pick your favorites out of these groups and target them one to two rounds earlier than their ADP. The differences between the three groups are distinct, but can be easily confused.

The first of the value groups are the underrated players. These players are generally not given the respect they deserve. This group can include players returning from a major injury, players who can increase production from last season (but not in breakout fashion), players in a new system more complimentary to their skills, and overlooked players flying under the radar. These players won't necessarily emerge this season (or have already emerged), and likewise, they will not necessarily have unexpected success and drastically overachieve like a successful sleeper would. Simply put, the uncertainly surrounding these players cause them to fall further in drafts then they should.

These are the players who are underrated and should perform a bit better than their ADP suggests...

Joseph Addai
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/4.12
Primary Causes of Concern: 2008 bust, pass-heavy offense, Donald Brown
Reasons for Good Value: receiving threat, red-zone threat
~Did you know that Addai was actually a top ten RB in standard no-PPR scoring last season, recovering from his busted 2008 season? He was even better in PPR systems. Many people have not taken notice of that, primarily because Addai was well below 1000 rushing yards (828) on the year. However, he did rush for 10 TDs, caught 3 more, and also racked up 51 receptions for 336 yards. The only RBs who had more total TDs than Addai were Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, and Willis McGahee. Addai will continue to score the TDs this season, especially since the Colts coaching staff is expressing their renewed commitment to the running game. Last year, Addai shed his bust label from 2008, and was heavily involved in the pass-heavy Colts offense. Donald Brown may end up being

1000 Hits!

THANK YOU TO ALL MY READERS WHO READ AND ENJOY MY BLOG!

According to my unique hit counter at the bottom of the blog, there have been over 1000 unique hits. Looking through my CQ counter, which is a free service that lists the details of what and who pulls up my blog address, only 66 of those hits are search engines. That is just under 1000 people who have directly and purposely accessed my blog, many through Footballdiehards.com (a highly recommended site for those of you who have not been there yet). Thank you for your support and continued access to the information I divulge. I will be publishing my Underrated, Sleeper, and Breakout players shortly. Stay tuned...

Overrated

When a player is overrated in fantasy football, he is not necessarily a bust. Overrated in the most general fantasy football terms means a player's ADP is higher than it should be by at least one round. Overrated players generally have a lot of hype surrounding them, or are big, well-established names in fantasy football who have detrimental circumstances effecting their value. They will be drafted higher than they should be.

You don't have to avoid these players, but don't draft them unless they fall at least a round further than their ADP (a couple of rounds further for the mid-rounders). There will be a few better options available at these player's ADPs...

Larry Fitzgerald
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: Adios Kurt Warner, adios QB stability
~I have already listed Matt Leinart in the bust category, so that prediction would naturally reciprocate throughout the passing offense. Fitz has been the biggest WR name over the last few years, and with good reason. He is a playmaker, has the best hands you will ever see, and does all the little things correct. However, calling him overrated is absolutely not a knock on his skills and abilities. He will be relying on Leinart to keep him in the stud category, and that is shaky at best. He will still perform like a low WR1/high WR2 for your team, but he is still being drafted like a top 5 stud WR. His stats will dip a bit for at least this year.

Miles Austin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.05/2.04
Primary Cause: Dez Bryant
~Austin emerged last season as Tony Romo's go-to guy. In fact, outside of Austin and Jason Witten, Romo didn't really have anyone else to throw to consistently. Roy Williams was a bum all year, and Patrick Crayton disappeared after his inspired week 1 performance. The Cowboys addressed their need at WR in the NFL Draft, not by drafting a complimentary counterpart to Austin, but by drafting a future stud WR who will threaten Austin's new found status as Romo's top target. Dez Bryant has looked like and carried himself as every bit of a future stud WR in the NFL so far. He was even given

Your Busted!

All of you should be familiar with what busts are. These are players who I predict will have a dramatic decrease in expected production, or flop altogether. Their production could plummet from factors such as bad o-lines, inconsistencies, position competition, or injuries. As the standard goes, there always tends to be at least one first-round bust every year. The first-round bust doesn't necessarily flop but simply does not perform like a first (or second, third, and fourth) round pick should.

Here are the players you should avoid in your drafts...

Rashard Mendenhall (first-round bust)
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: fumbles, passing game, Jonathan Dwyer
~According to the above ADP, he is a second round draft pick on average. However, he is late first-round consideration in pretty much every draft everywhere, and he has been drafted in the first round of every mock draft I have completed so far. It was difficult to label Mendenhall as a first round bust because he finally emerged last season as the stud many thought he would be, and looked like he was going to improve this season with the Steelers renewed commitment to the power running game. A few factors will knock his status back down to earth this season: First, he had a problem with fumbles last year. That is a problem that should be easily solved, but that directly relates to another cause of his first-round bust status: Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer's game is very similar to Mendenhall's game and Dwyer fits very well into the Steelers power rushing attack. If Mendenhall starts to have a problem with fumbles again, we could see Dwyer take some carries away from him. I also expect Dwyer to be a TD vulture, possibly seeing more goalline touches than Mendenhall. Finally, the Steelers passing game has been obliterated this season. Their top WR and Superbowl XLIII MVP was traded away--because of character issues--without any planned replacement, and