Adios

Unfortunately, I have decided to officially call it quits on this blog.  I will most certainly publish again in the future, maybe here, maybe somewhere else, with fantasy football my primary topic of choice.  I may also consider publishing a blog with my culinary creations, many of which are original works of deliciousness.  As for now, it is just not feasible for me to set aside time (and sleep) to blog for my already dwindling audience.  I greatly appreciate those who read my work and enjoyed it.  I hope to blog for you again one day.

2012 "USFL Dynasty League" Rookie/Free Agent Draft

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in: 2012 USFL Draft Big Board

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Trent Richardson, CLE

1.02 ~ QB Andrew Luck, IND

1.03 ~ RB Doug Martin, TB

**1.04 ~ QB Robert Griffin III, WAS

1.05 ~ WR Justin Blackmon, JAC

1.06 ~ WR Michael Floyd, ARI

1.07 ~ RB David Wilson, NYG

1.08 ~ WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI

1.09 ~ RB Isaiah Pead, STL

1.10 ~ TE Coby Fleener, IND

1.11 ~ WR Kendall Wright, TEN

1.12 ~ RB Lamar Miller, MIA

2.01 ~ WR Stephen Hill, NYJ

2.02 ~ RB Ronnie Hillman, DEN

2.03 ~ WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN

2.04 ~ WR Brian Quick, STL

2.05 ~ QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA

2.06 ~ WR Ryan Broyles, DET

2.07 ~ QB Brandon Weeden, CLE

2.08 ~ WR Rueben Randle, NYG

2.09 ~ RB LaMichael James, SF

2.10 ~ WR A.J. Jenkins, SF

2.11 ~ WR Nick Toon, NO

2.12 ~ TE Ladarius Green, SD

3.01 ~ RB Bernard Pierce, BAL

3.02 ~ WR Chris Givens, STL

3.03 ~ WR Tommy Sreeter, BAL

3.04 ~ RB Chris Rainey, PIT

3.05 ~ WR Marvin Jones, CIN

3.06 ~ TE Adrien Robinson, NYG

**3.07 ~ RB Chris Polk, PHI

3.08 ~ RB Robert Turbin, SEA

3.09 ~ WR T.Y. Hilton, IND

**3.10 ~ WR Greg Childs, MIN

3.11 ~ TE Martellus Bennett, NYG

3.12 ~ WR Keshawn Martin, HOU

3.13 ~ RB Terrance Ganaway, NYJ

4.01 ~ WR Juron Criner, OAK

4.02 ~ TE Dwayne Allen, IND

4.03 ~ TE Michael Egnew, MIA

4.04 ~ RB Vick Ballard, IND

**4.05 ~ RB Cyrus Gray, KC

4.06 ~ QB Russell Wilson, SEA

4.07 ~ RB Dan Herron, CIN

4.08 ~ WR Marvin McNutt, PHI

4.09 ~ WR DeVier Posey, HOU

4.10 ~ WR Joe Adams, CAR

4.11 ~ RB Edwin Baker, SD

4.12 ~ WR T.J. Graham, BUF

5.01 ~ WR Devon Wylie, KC

5.02 ~ QB Brock Osweiler, DEN

5.03 ~ PASSED

5.04 ~ QB Ryan Lindley, ARI

**5.05 ~ PASSED

5.06 ~ QB Kirk Cousins, WAS

5.07 ~ PASSED

5.08 ~ K Randy Bullock, HOU

5.09 ~ QB Nick Foles, PHI

5.10 ~ WR LaVon Brazill, IND

5.11 ~ TE Evan Rodriguez, CHI

5.12 ~ PASSED

I'M BACK!!!...again...

The time gap between this post and the last (somewhat embarrassing titled) post is quite large. So, am I back with my irregular posting? For now I don't know, but I have gained too many readers and regulars to just simply quit alltogether. As I have explained multiple times throughout previous blog posts, the addition of my third daughter (now 20 months old) and my most recent promotion (little more than a year ago) seriously overwhelmed me and exhausted most of my "free time." To top it off, I was working off of a desktop PC, which was quickly becoming a freezing and crashing relic because of its sub-1 GB of RAM and the apparently outdated AMD Athlon 64 bit processor. That fossilizing PC had to be located in my bedroom due to home and play-area arraingments, along with my value keyboard and mouse, and their loud clicks. My promotion and expanded work hours essentially eliminated any chance of blogging during the day, and having less "down time" alltogether caused me to better value relaxing over blogging after work. Besides, the sleeping wife stirs when the clicking and clacking occurs.

All things considered, I then decided to at least take a hiatus from blogging and considered shutting down the blog entirely. All of last season, I went blog-free to further concentrate on my family and try to recover a little bit of my "free time." I hadn't thought about getting back to blogging until the motherboard on my desktop got fried by an electrical surge, apparently not stopped by the heavy duty surge protector with individual outlet transformers. Being left without any computer caused me to bring my future plans of investing in a high quality laptop to the present. I have invested in an HP Pavilion dv7 with 8 GB of RAM, 750 GB of storage, an Intel 2nd Generation Core i7 processor, a ton of bells, many whistles, and a bathroom sink (kitchen sink is a bit cliche). Effin A right! I am mobile within my home, which means I can tap away as much as I want after the rest of the family is sleeping, and I am in the comfort of not my bedroom. Yeah, yeah, yeah...make fun of me making my first laptop purchase ever (not counting the hand-me-down POS I had from 2001-2005) and being excited about added mobility. Three children has equated to extreme debt and tapered splurging for me and my wife. I have yet to own a smart phone!

My new laptop has given me added opportunities to spend my late nights doing more tapping on a keyboard instead of a remote. Am I promising to blog more frequently? Possibly, but I will certainly try to renew my committment to my likely reduced corp of readers. I have a few ideas to help streamline the blog posts and improve production, such as simplifing the posts into more of a classic blogging style and researching lesser known but still important stat lines. The next post will be the coverage of the recent "USFL Dynasty League" rookie/FA draft, which concluded little more than two weeks ago.

Arian Foster will BUST

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...

2011 Rookie Rankings

Top 20

1. RB Mark Ingram NO
2. WR A.J. Green CIN
3. WR Julio Jones ATL
4. RB Mikel Leshoure DET
5. RB Ryan Williams ARI
6. RB Daniel Thomas MIA
7. WR Greg Little CLE
8. WR Randall Cobb GB
9. RB Delone Carter IND
10. QB Blaine Gabbert JAC
11. WR Jonathan Baldwin KC
12. WR Torrey Smith BAL
13. QB Cam Newton CAR
14. WR Leonard Hankerson WAS
15. QB Christian Ponder MIN
16. RB DeMarco Murray DAL
17. RB Roy Helu WAS
18. QB Jake Locker TEN
19. WR Vincent Brown SD

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Official Rookie/Free Agent Draft 2011

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=2011draft

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Mark Ingram, NO

Relentless and physical. He may not be the most electric RB prospect to enter the NFL draft, but he was made for the NFL. He possesses elite vision and awareness, sheds tackles, fully utilizes blockers, is strong and physical, and gives every ounce of effort with every run. He is not as fast or quick as you would hope for in a top prospect, but the same things were said about Emmitt Smith, who Ingram compares favorably to. Ingram was never a prototypical workhorse RB at Alabama, but I contend that just means he is more fresh. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (if he is not cut or traded) will not be forgotten about, but they will certainly need to step aside. Expect Ingram to be the starter, but don't expect him to be used as much as the likes of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson.

1.02 ~ WR Julio Jones, ATL

Athletic and fearless. I'm not really surprised that he got chosen before A.J. Green. Jones exploded at the combine

School's Out

Every season, mistakes are made, busts are drafted, bad strategies are adopted, bad habits are repeated, and lineup decisions that have been obsessively debated over for an entire week result in wrong decisions. There are certain mistakes that even the cagiest of fantasy veterans make, even though they try to avoid them. Somehow, certain bad habits seem to always haunt you, even though you try your best to avoid them. Every year after those bad habits and choices occur, you should take note...I mean literally write them down somewhere on your drafting and general fantasy football material, so you will have a blatant reminder to avoid those choices during your next draft and/or the following season.

Here is a short list of the more important things we learned or re-learned from this fantasy football season...

~~Never again will I target or consider drafting Steve Smith of the Panthers unless by some major transaction he ends up with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees as his QB. I drafted him in one of my leagues (12-team, PPR) at pick 3.07, and even though I wasn't crazy about drafting him, the top tiers of WRs ran dry quickly and he seemed like the best available WR on the board. What kills me most is that even though I targeted (and drafted) Joseph Addai in the fourth round, Hakeem Nicks was on the board when I picked Smith.

~~Although I targeted less than half of these players in my 2010 drafts, I will put Steven Jackson, Randy Moss (obviously), Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Carson Palmer in that conversation of no longer targeting...ever again.

~~Don't take a defense early. Quality undrafted waiver wire pickups this season included the Raiders, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, Chiefs, Falcons, and Cardinals. Instead of burning a mid-round pick on the Vikings, Cowboys, or Ravens you could have taken a chance on some quality sleeper options like Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Jay Cutler, or Matt Ryan. Every season, there are always several free agent defenses that quickly play themselves into the top 10 of fantasy defenses.

~~Kickers are solely reserved for your last round. This is more of a reminder than something that

Fantasy Playoffs Preview (Weeks 11-13)

Either you're in, or you temporarily lost your taste for football. It's playoff time! Chances are if you scored the likes of Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, or Kyle Orton off of the waiver wire, you are in the playoffs. If you were savvy enough to draft the likes of Arian Foster, Hakeem Nicks, Philip Rivers, Dwayne Bowe, or Terrell Owens, you are probably wearing your dancing shoes. If you happened to be like one owner in my keeper league, who happened to keep Antonio Gates in the sixth round, draft Arian Foster in the second round, draft Peyton Hillis in the fifteenth round, pick up Michael Vick off of waivers after week 1 (and right after Andy Reid declared Kevin Kolb to continue being the starter once he got healthy following the concussion he suffered in the week 1 game versus the Packers), and trade Maurice Jones-Drew for Calvin Johnson and Ladainian Tomlinson before the week 4 games, chances are you a rolling pretty damn high into the playoffs with a 13-0 record and about to destroy many league records held by me.

Whatever the case, if you are in the playoffs, you should be obsessing about your roster, potential free agent pickups, matchups of not only this weekend but also of the entire fantasy playoffs (especially for fantasy defenses), and how the 13-0 team can be upset. This is the time of year where you start your studs, but many players can be benched for other players with great matchups. Just because you have been winning games on strong performances from Brandon Lloyd, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Steve Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Vernon Davis doesn't mean you should start them automatically. This is the time of the year where matchups are more important than ever. Hopefully, you were savvy enough to stock up your roster with players having great matchups during these next three weeks. The owner who thinks he should roll with all his top players throughout the playoffs, no matter what the matchups are is likely to come away disappointed, unless your starting roster is Michael Vick, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gates, and the Eagles defense like the owner in my league I mentioned above. I will try to give you some advice on certain players in the playoffs to increase your chances of winning.

Unbenchable Players

Aaron Rodgers
~~Once again we find him at the top of the QB stat sheets. The Packers lost their running game, so Rodgers took it upon himself to single-handedly dismantle his opponents. His domination will continue into the playoffs, especially in weeks 14 and 15 against the Lions and Patriots.

Michael Vick
~~There are many words to describe his season like unbelievable, phenomenal, redemption, and unstoppable. He is the second best QB in fantasy, and he has only played in seven and two half games out of the twelve. He can't be contained. Unbenchable is stating the blatantly obvious.

Philip Rivers
~~Undrafted rookie WR Seyi Ajirotutu. Do I need to elaborate?

One Thought

~~I must apologize. My last blog included some thoughts that were about three weeks old, specifically the two thoughts on the Lions. I was so anxious to publish that blog (finally) that I didn't get a chance to thoroughly proofread it. I will recant my comments on essentially the entire Lions RB situation. Jahvid Best is no longer a viable fantasy starter with multiple turf toe injuries, and his workload is now being drastically reduced to help him heal. Once the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, expect Best to be an IR candidate. Also, Kevin Smith was back and is now back on the IR after thumb surgery. Look for Maurice Morris to get the "Lions share" (ha...ha...ha) of the carries for the rest of the season, or until Best is able to run his cuts properly. Morris is actually a solid flex option.

Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate

Bye Week

I am currently on my bye week. Since I am doing this blog just for fun, I have taken a week off for some extra free time and to take care of other business. I will post a special "double edition" following this weekend, and make some predictions regarding the NFL playoffs and Superbowl. We are at the halfway point in the NFL season, and I typically like to make Superbowl predictions and playoff speculations at this time.

However, I will leave you with one thought...

~~It's time to start thinking outside the box this season. There are very few must-start-no-matter-the-matchup players in the league. In fact, there seems to be even less compared to previous seasons. They include Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (even though I predict second half disappointment from him), Kyle Orton (doesn't feel right saying that), Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster (even with his tough schedule looming), Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd (doesn't feel right saying that either), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis. More than ever, don't be afraid to play matchups if one of your regular starters not mentioned above has a tough matchup, and you have a solid replacement option with a very favorable matchup.

Check back early next week. I will attempt (as usual) to post my blog earlier than what I have been each week.

Analyze This ~ Week 7

Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.

Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.

I want to take a moment to elaborate on some of the bust predictions I made last week. First of all, those players I listed I considered busts or eventual busts according to their preseason expectations. Maurice Jones-Drew is one in a very small handful of RBs getting a workhorse load, averaging over 20 touches (21.7) per game. Given the multitude of RB committees in the NFL, the few remaining workhorses are workhorses for a reason...they can keep healthy, handle a heavy load, and are playmakers extraordinaire. Therefore, after six weeks (now seven) I would certainly expect Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice to at least be in the top 10 of RBs. Anything less, and they are busts, especially since all those RBs were top 5 fantasy picks. MJD made my bust list (and not my

Analyze This ~ Week 6

I was just watching the Monday Night Football pregame on ESPN. First of all, how is it possible that anybody can take Matt Millen seriously? Why do I have to continue to see his empty head on TV talking football? Why does Stuart Scott keep asking Millen to evaluate certain players? We already know how "great" Millen's player evaluations are. His draft record with the Lions proves that. For example, Scott just asked Millen which current NFL RB would he build a team around. Millen responded quickly and emphatically "Adrian Peterson." Let me take a moment to calm down a bit.................still pissed...................


.........With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Millen had the chance to draft Peterson in 2007. Instead of trading down to any one of a multitude of teams willing to trade up to get Calvin and draft Peterson, he put his miserable track record of drafting first round WRs to the test. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and Calvin is almost everything he was scouted to be, but I would much rather have a stud RB over a stud WR to build around, all day, every day. The moron even said it, even though in 2007 he passed on trading down and drafting AD. So...maybe the Lions did need a WR to compliment Roy Williams. I guess Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, or Steve Breaston couldn't fit that bill. We could have had AD (or even stud LT Joe Thomas) and one of those aforementioned WRs in the 2007 Draft. Millen has no business talking player evaluations and scouting. For that matter, his face would look better with a tread print of one of my Timberland boots on it.

...Yes, it still stings to think of the joke called the "Millen Era."

On the Path to Bust City

As you have already deducted by the sub-title of this section, these are the busts. Some players have already busted (according to their preseason expectations) and likely won't improve the rest of the year. Others are looking like they could be fine, but they will eventually let down their owners. I have listed the stats of the busts through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players who have not yet busted are soon to be flops or have injuries cost them extensive amounts of time. Players not listed (I think they will turn it around) include Brett Favre, DeAngelo Willams, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith CAR, Randy Moss, Heath Miller, and Owen Daniels.

Already arrived...

Analyze This ~ Week 5

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless

Analyze This ~ Week 3 and Week 4

~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~

This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...



Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world

 ~~Kyle Orton is a top 3 QB with no WR1 or receiving TE on the Broncos roster, which leads me to this...

~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.

~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.

~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.

~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.

~~Where has Ray Rice gone?

~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.

~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and

Analyze This ~ Week 2

Two weeks down, fourteen more glorious fantasy weeks to go. Now that two weeks are recorded in the books, NFL teams will start to settle down, find their mojo, and players will start to become more transparent as far as what kind of fantasy performances they will give your team and how well they can perform against tough defenses.

I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore gain a total of over 150 yards, or how rare it is to see Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin have a 3 FF point output in any game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Jahvid Best ~ 9 receptions (14 targets)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 105 receiving yards
Kyle Orton ~ 307 passing yards
Chris Cooley ~ double digit FF points (12)
Matt Ryan ~ 3 TDs/0 ints
Malcom Floyd ~ 31.7 yards per catch average
Aaron Hernandez ~ 6 targets (6 receptions)
Mike Williams TB ~ double digit FF points (11)
Deon Butler ~ 5 receptions (8 targets)
Brandon Jackson ~ 2.9 yards per rush average
Matt Cassel ~ under 10 FF points (3)
Donald Driver ~ 38 receiving yards
Louis Murphy ~ 10 targets (6 receptions)

...And Much Less of This

LeSean McCoy ~ 30 FF points
Michael Vick ~ 108.0 passer rating
Kevin Walter ~ 11 targets (11 receptions)
Jay Cutler ~ 0 ints
Brandon Pettigrew ~ 108 receiving yards
Steve Smith NYG ~ 35 receiving yards
Chad Henne ~ 15 pass attempts (9 completions)
Donald Brown ~ 16 rushes
Hakeem Nicks ~ 2 receptions (5 targets)
Felix Jones ~ 9 total touches (7 runs/2 catches)
Dez Bryant ~ 2 targets (2 receptions)
Jeremy Maclin ~ 26 receiving yards

Thoughts

~The Cardinals offense without Kurt Warner (and Anquan Boldin) is an absolute mess. Look for

Just a Thought ~ Vincent Jackson's Destination

After observing the sputtering Vikings passing offense today with a hobbled Percy Harvin and a lack of Sidney Rice, is there any doubt in anyone's mind that they will trade for Vincent Jackson? Granted Brett Favre completed 22 of 36 passes (with 3 interceptions), but they were mostly short and intermediate passes. Visanthe Shaincoe was his leading receiver for the second consecutive week in both catches and yards, and that is not a good sign for any team, even if it's Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates. Rice is expected to return to the field somewhere around week 8 to week 10, and there has already been some inside information saying his recovery is not proceeding as quickly as it was expected to.

It is very obvious the Vikings are in a "win now" mode. Their entire Super Bowl hopes rely on Favre being their QB (they haven't bothered to draft a quality QB prospect in the last few years), and Brad Childress has been on the hot seat since before he originally convinced Favre to join the Packers' division rival. Jackson has been asking for an extremely high salary--too high for the Chargers and too high for any team to vehemently pursue him--and the Vikings may suddenly be desperate enough to pony up the cash after a dismal 0-2 start. They need a big deep threat WR.

As a Jackson owner in my money keeper league (drafted him in the seventh round and have the option to keep him next year), I have heard all the rumors of the Vikings, Seahawks, Brown, Redskins, and Rams being in the V-Jax sweepstakes and have been strongly pulling for the WR1-less Redskins to pay for his services. From a fantasy perspective, joining the Vikings right now would return Jackson to WR1 status with the ultimate gun-slinger as his QB, but the inevitable return of Rice would cloud that status. Joining the Redskins would assure Jackson owners of owning a top fantasy WR into the fantasy playoffs, since the Redskins don't currently have a true WR1 for Donovan McNabb.

Given the recent Vikings loss, helped along by the paltry passing offense, it seems inevitable that Jackson will be a Minnesota Viking before Wednesday afternoon, which is the deadline for his suspension to be reduced to four games instead of six if traded. If that happens, it is scary to think of what kind of noise the Vikings will make in the NFL once Rice is fully healthy.

Analyze This ~ Week 1

I am really furious that NFL Redzone is now a service I have to pay for. The cable network I pay for made progress before last season when arbitration caused the NFL Network to be included in the regular lineup. Last season that included the NFL Redzone channel, owned and operated by NFL Network. This year, I find out the hard way that I no longer have NFL Redzone in my regular lineup. Instead of enjoying every minute of football I can possibly cram into my head from the first kickoff, while paying close attention to my revamped Lions team, I have to spend about twenty minutes on the phone with my ridiculous cable network to work out the financial details of how I can get the NFL Redzone without paying an extra $8 per month. Needless to say, I will not go an NFL season without my NFL Redzone channel. Have I mentioned that I love what they do?

Typically, the first one or two weeks of the NFL season involves a lot of fluky plays, performances, and outcomes. This first week was certainly no different. Players are jacked up on adrenaline, certain plays still have kinks to work out, timing between QBs and receivers require fine tuning, and generally, teams need to find their identity. I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning score over 20 fantasy football (FF) points, or how rare it is to see Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and Ray Rice have a 2.2 or less yards per carry average in any given game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Anquan Boldin ~ 110 receiving yards
Jay Cutler ~ over 300 passing yards (372 total)
Eddie Royal ~ 8 catches (10 targets)
Roddy White ~ 12+ targets (23 total!!!)
Visanthe Shaincoe ~ TDs (1 total)
Chris Cooley ~ 6 catches (9 targets)
Dez Bryant ~ 12 targets (8 catches)
Mike Wallace ~ 31.0 yards per catch average
Todd Heap ~ 6 catches (11 targets)
Matt Forte ~ 2.9 yards per run average
Knowshon Moreno ~ 60 rushing yards
Justin Forsett ~ 10 total touches (7 runs/3 catches)
Peyton Hillis & Jerome Harrison ~ 50/50 split of carries (9 each)
Reggie Bush ~ 7 touches (2 runs/5 catches)
Lee Evans ~ 3 FF points

...and Much Less of This

Through the Wire

I have already explained my lack of time for blogging over these last two weeks or so, and this piece will also result in dramatic abbreviation. I was hoping to be able to post this waiver wire article before the start of the season, but time has flown for me.

These players are the players who have gone mainly undrafted, and I believe they will all have some sort of fantasy impact in either small parts of the season or throughout the season. Some will step up when a player ahead of them on the depth chart gets injured, while others are simply overlooked.

Here are the players you should be adding to your scout team...

Louis Murphy ~ the top WR for Jason Campbell.

Mike Thomas ~ performed well his rookie year, and has had nothing but high praise coming into this season. He is a wonderful PPR sleeper.

Jake Delhomme ~ has regained the little bit of arm strength he lacked last season.

Jason Campbell ~ always overlooked, but ended last season with very good performances.

Leonard Weaver ~ is a Mike Bell injury away from being the regular short-yardage/goalline RB in Philadelphia.

Keiland Williams ~ has Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart, which causes me to be optimistic about his chances of getting on the field during the season.

Early Doucet ~ ended last year with hot performances, and could potentially outperform Steve Breaston.

Brandon LaFell ~ he will be the second WR and second overall receiving option in Carolina.

Deon Butler ~ Deion Branch is very injury prone, and Butler will step up when Branch is out of the lineup.

Josh Morgan ~ in his third year, and is always overlooked in drafts. He is an excellent

Breakouts

Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.

Here are this year's breakouts...

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.

Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of