There are some huge fantasy implications involving the Donovan McNabb trade that went down Easter Sunday. As the speculation was swirling about where he could be traded (Oakland being the front runner), all of the obvious options were explored. Basically, every team that needed QB help was considered, including the Redskins who became less and less interested in Jason Campbell running the offense. The Redskins seem like a nice fit for McNabb because Mike Shannahan runs a similar West Coast offensive system and likes a QB who can bootleg or roll out, creating passing plays while scrambling. Prior to the trade going down, all the offensive pieces seemed to be in place for the Redskins to make a playoff run, as long as the right QB was put in place to run the plays (and as long as the holes in the offensive line get addressed during the NFL draft).
"We thought this was the best for Donovan and the compensation was right," Andy Reid said. "We surely took into consideration Donovan's feelings."
The deal is done. McNabb heads the Redskins offense, and Kevin Kolb heads the Eagles offense. This situation seems like a win-win scenario for both teams. I'm not necessarily saying that Kolb is better than McNabb, but he has already proven he can run the Eagles offense and be successful. Even if Kolb ends up being a small step down from what McNabb was to the Eagles, the Eagles still acquire the 37th overall pick in this draft and a fourth round pick, which can become a third round pick depending on what the incentive details are. It's a big win for the Eagles who will still have their offense along with it's efficiency intact. It's also a win for Shannahan and the Redskins offense, upgrading from the somewhat mundane Campbell to a pro-bowl veteran QB.
As for how this move effects the fantasy world, this should be another win-win situation for many offensive players from both teams....offensive players not named Donovan McNabb. McNabb himself may be moving into a similar style West Coast offensive system, but he is moving from a pass-heavy offense with a ton of young talent to a offense expected to be more run-heavy, which also has a good amount of talent, both young and veteran, but of a lesser caliber than what the Eagles are sporting.
What McNabb has at his disposal are a pair of improving third year WRs in Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly. If Thomas can pull his head out of his ass, he can be a premier WR, possessing great speed and athleticism, while Kelly will become the prototypical possession WR moving the chains.
Chris Cooley should return back to prominence on TE stat sheets, starting the season fully healthy and working in a system that favors the use of receiving TEs.
Santana Moss is more of the wild card here. Many people have already speculated that Moss will thrive on deep route receptions from McNabb. I, on the other hand, have come to know Moss as the perennial poster child for inconsistency. Sure McNabb is the best QB Moss will have his entire career to date, but McNabb also has a lot of other weapons, three of which are progressing into their third years in the NFL. Also, McNabb has always liked spreading the ball around. The development of Thomas and Kelly alone will take receptions away from Moss.
The final piece of the Redskins passing game puzzle is the third third-year receiving option in Fred Davis. Davis broke out last year once Cooley broke his ankle, but with Cooley starting this season fully recovered, Davis becomes a backup TE again. However, given the good potential of Moss, Thomas, or Kelly to struggle, I think there is a good chance of seeing a lot of two TE sets with both TEs being utilized as receiving options.
It remains to be seen how the Redskins RB situation shakes out, but at any rate, it is safe to downgrade Clinton Portis, even if Willie Parker never arrived in Washington. Parker simply assures that Portis' value plummets. I wouldn't worry too much about Larry Johnson since he will be a backup at best.
The Kevin Kolb era in Philly has finally kicked off. I can honestly say I don't know exactly what his tendencies are in the passing game, but I do know he has a big arm and two very young, very fast WRs in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles offensive system shouldn't need any major changes for the transition to be seamless. Even LeSean McCoy can do an admirable job to try taking over Brian Westbrook's former role. In the two games Kolb started for the injured McNabb in 2009, he passed for over 320 yards with 2 TDs in each game. During each of those two contests, Jackson caught a TD for over 50 yards, while Brent Celek had over 100 receiving yards, which ended up being two of his three 100 yard performances of the season.
I wouldn't call Kolb a sleeper because he won't go unnoticed during fantasy drafts. I will say he should have great draft value because there are at least seven QBs that should be drafted before Kolb--Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and possibly Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, or Ben Roethlisberger. I think the presence of Kolb on draft boards will cause more owners than normal to wait on drafting their starting QB, which in effect would cause a few stud QBs to slide further than they should. Obviously, Kolb's value skyrockets everywhere, especially in dynasty formats. Don't bother trying to buy him in your dynasty leagues because his owners will be stingy and he may be a bit too expensive. Dynasty owners will probably price him as a top 3 QB, thinking he could be the next Aaron Rodgers.
DeSean Jackson still holds relatively the same value as a top 10 WR in all fantasy formats with added upside since he is in his third year as an NFL WR.
With Kolb taking over the QB position, the biggest beneficiary will be Brent Celek. In the two games Kolb started last season, we all saw how he favored Celek, completing 8 receptions to him for over 100 yards in each game. Celek could very well end up being a top 3 TE for the year, and he won't last long on draft boards after Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Vernon Davis get chosen.
Jeremy Maclin will have an upgrade in value, simply because he has a year of experience under his belt. It remains to be seen how Maclin's presence effects the value of Jackson, but in a pass-happy offense, I wouldn't be concerned about either guy's value fluctuating because of the presence of the other.
I don't think Kolb will effect the current values of LeSean McCoy or Mike Bell, but we don't yet know how many passes Kolb will throw to McCoy. The Eagles may be planning to draft a big RB to help Bell compliment McCoy, since Leonard Weaver will assume a traditional FB role. That scenario should be the only thing to effect McCoy's value, and Bell doesn't have a lot of value to begin with.
As far as Jason Campbell, there are a few teams where he could immediately be plugged into as at least a temporary starting QB. If he doesn't get traded before the draft, look for the Redskins to deal him during the NFL draft to a team like the Raiders, Bills, Panthers, or Browns who may draft a rookie QB to be their future franchise QB. Those teams would be able to use Campbell to start this season, while the QB prospect develops, or in the case of the Panthers and Browns, he could be put in direct competition with Matt Moore or Jake Delhomme. I have counted out the Rams in this scenario since it seems likely that they will draft Sam Bradford and make him the immediate starter.
Fantasy Implications
~Downgrade for Donovan McNabb
~No change for Santana Moss (still a bum)
~Upgrade for Chris Cooley, Devin Thomas, and Malcom Kelly
~Fred Davis is back to being a backup TE
~Downgrade for Clinton Portis (not a result of the trade)
~Solid RB3 value for Willie Parker with a few added receptions
~Just retire, Larry Johnson
~Huge upgrade for Kevin Kolb
~Upgrade for Brent Celek
~Same high value for DeSean Jackson
~Small upgrade with huge potential for Jeremy Maclin
~Same good value for LeSean McCoy
~Mike Bell's role still uncertain (we will know after the draft)
~Jason Avant will still be fantasy irrelevant outside of dynasty formats
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