Middle Rounds
Chris Wells
~~I doubt he will go unnoticed by even the amateur fantasy football owners in next year's draft, but Wells ended the season/post-season being the primary option in the Cardinals running game. It took him all the way until week 13 to finally get more reps than Tim Hightower on a consistent basis, but when the Cardinals offense started to lean on him more in the running game he responded with very good fantasy performances down the stretch, getting a TD in each of weeks 14, 15, and 16, and going over 100 yards in week 15. Even in his limited committee style touches, he averaged a remarkable 4.6 yards per carry for the year. Wells may still be in a committee situation with Hightower next year, but I fully expect him to be
the starter (if that even means anything anymore) for the 2010 season. Furthermore, with the retirement of Kurt Warner, Ken Whisenhunt may very well go with a prominent power running attack, using both Wells and Hightower with LaRod Stevens-Howling being the change-of-pace RB. We know the style of offense Whisenhunt likes to run from his Steelers days, and with the offense now left in the less-capable hands of Matt Leinart, he may very well have his excuse to begin the transition to his familiar power running offense. Hightower will still be heavily involved in the Cardinals' game plans, but Wells should be more successful, if he stays healthy.
Fred Jackson
~~I could honestly say no more than "Marshawn Lynch is a bonehead," and you would fully understand my acknowledgement of Jackson here. Lynch is approaching the most egregious label an NFL player can acquire, which is being a bust. He is also making a habit of attracting legal troubles. Jackson seems to have his road into 2010 paved for him to become the full time starter and receive no less than fifty percent of the Bills' RB load (more like a good sixty percent). He started off the season during Lynch's three game suspension totaling 425 yards and 1 TD for those three weeks, but he disappeared on the stat sheet for a while once Lynch returned. Just to remind the new coaching staff of his capability to lead the Bills' rushing attack, he ran for 212 yards in week 17 against the Colts......OK, they were resting starters, but running for over 200 yards is no easy task, even against NFL backups. Including that final regular season game, Jackson totaled over 100 yards in four of his final six games, all as the starter.
Robert Meachem
~~It certainly took him a long time to come around. Meachem was a former first round NFL draft pick in 2007, and was supposed to be the compliment to Marques Colston for Drew Brees to have a big play potential on both sides of the field. After an arthroscopic knee surgery derailed his training camp and preseason development during his rookie season, he ended up being inactive every single game that year. His 2008 preseason performances turned many heads, but those heads essentially turned back when he didn't amount to much against starting NFL defensive talent the few times he was on the field. The 2009 season was supposed to be Meachem's magical third year, where WRs tend to breakout if they have big game potential, but he started off the season being that very occasional big-play guy on the field just like 2008, with a random target or two each game. Apparently, his two major problems keeping him off the field were his inability to learn the playbook (specifically Sean Payton's exotic formations and pre-snap motions) and his poor run-blocking abilities. It's safe to say that the "light bulb" went on in week 9 when he suddenly caught on and caught 5 balls, 1 for a TD. That week started a string of five consecutive games where he caught at least 1 TD, some actually coming in the redzone, not just on go-route plays. From week 9 through week 16 (I'm not counting week 17 since he and most starters got rested for the playoffs) Meachem caught 35 passes and an astounding 7 TDs. He is certainly a sleeper extraordinaire for 2010.
Felix Jones
~~Just like Shonn Greene, Jones is another player who waited until the very end of the season/post-season to emerge and suddenly improve his draft stock for 2010. He was always the second option in the Cowboys' backfield, and continued to see at least a decent amount of touches when healthy. Starting in week 14, when Marion Barber's general ineffectiveness was established, Jones saw double digit carries the rest of the way. When Barber had a bum knee during the Cowboys' first playoff game against the Eagles, Jones stepped in a took full advantage. He ran 16 times for 148 yards and 1 TD, averaging a spectacular 9.3 yards per carry. He also had a 30 yard catch. His full compliment of skills were on display including his speed, acceleration into the hole, his surprising power and toughness, and his footwork. There has been much speculation about the roles of Jones, Barber, and Tashard Choice going into 2010. Barber's struggles during the 2009 season were not his first, since he experienced a drop off from injuries during the 2008 season. After watching all three guys run in various games, and taking note of Barber's increasing ineffectiveness, I will say it's worth the gamble that Jones will emerge as the starter and/or primary RB for the 2010 season. His draft stock will waiver a bit because there are three quality RBs in a committee situation in Dallas, but Jones is the playmaker, possessing the best speed and lateral quickness, and he is also very willing to lower his shoulders between the tackles. Besides, I expect Barber to be finding a new home very soon, given his contract pays him $3.86 million for 2010 and increasingly more each year after, until he is owed a whopping $7 million in 2014, the final year of his contract. That is an awful lot for an unproductive RB to be owed. If Barber is still with the Cowboys when your 2010 fantasy drafts come around, expect Jones to slide a round or two and end up having excellent draft value.
Reggie Bush
~~He has certainly not lived up to his draft position as the second overall pick in 2006. Gary Kubiak is looking like a genius for taking Mario Williams over Bush as the first overall pick of the 2006 draft. However, even though Bush has struggled this season, mainly from lack of playing time behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, he continues to occasionally show us flashes, and I mean huge flashes, in certain games. The big game that caused me to blog about him in this topic and caused me to re-revive his fantasy value back to mid-round draft status, was the game against the Cardinals in the divisional round of the playoffs. Sure he showed flashes during a couple of other games during the season against the Falcons and the Rams, but the playoffs are a far bigger stage and defenses tend to play much more smart and tough (the Cardinals....kinda did on only some of the plays, but not impressively). In that game against the Cardinals, Bush ended with 5 runs for 84 yards (that's 16.8 yards per carry!!!) and 1 TD and he caught 4 balls for 24 yards. On the one particular 46 yard run play, he broke a sure tackle and made a cut upfield in a Barry Sanders fashion. Throughout that game, he showed us a bit of everything he is capable of (not counting his punt return for a TD) when he broke some other tackles, lowered his shoulder into would-be tacklers, ran between the tackles on run plays, and displayed his amazing speed and agility. He is a pure playmaker and "homerun hitter," and should see more plays from scrimmage during the 2010 season, enough to make him a very productive fantasy RB. His increased aggressiveness and determination during the end of the season and into the playoffs certainly point toward the potential for an expanded role in the near future. However, the fact that he is due to make $8 million in 2010 and $11.8 million in 2011 might cause the Saints to either try to restructure his contract, trade him, or maybe even release him. He would more than likely have increased value with another team because his price tag would cause any potential suitors to utilize him in at least a full share of committee RB duties.
Austin Collie/Pierre Garcon
~~I group these two guys together because neither one really emerged as Peyton Manning's favorite over the other. Anthony Gonzalez will be returning to action this offseason and into next season, so I couldn't even guess which one of Garcon or Collie would start and/or play the more prominent role in the Colts' offense. You might think that since both of these guys played so well, Gonzalez would actually be on the sidelines a bit more, making room for both Collie and Garcon to be on the field together, but I think Gonzalez will still see the field as much if not more than either of Garcon or Collie in 2010. Collie works wonderful in the slot and Garcon and Gonzalez can both work well as the flanker or in the slot. With all those weapons at the WR position, we could see more empty backfield plays or spread offense plays with four WRs and Dallas Clark on the field together. Both Collie and Garcon ended the season/postseason with really nice performances. Garcon had a nice four game stretch during weeks 10 through 13 when he totaled 20 receptions, had over 100 yards in two of those games and had a TD in the other two with him totaling double digit fantasy points in each of those games, and all against very solid pass defenses. He ended up struggling a bit with minor injuries the rest of the regular season. Collie was a regular contributor all season running a lot of short and intermediate routes, getting 60 receptions on the season. For both guys, the playoffs gave each of their 2010 values a huge jolt, and they will both be carrying a ton of momentum into this offseason and into next season. Both guys were regular targets in the playoffs for Manning, with Collie totaling 17 receptions in the three games and Garcon getting 21. During the AFC Championship game when Reggie Wayne was locked down by Darelle Revis, Garcon and Collie showed up in dramatic fashion. Collie only posted a measly 7 catches for 123 yards and 1 TD, while Garcon was barely able to muster up 11 catches for 151 yards and 1 TD, with the yardage totals for each guy being their career highs. Both guys will end up being quality sleepers next year, but unfortunately, so will Gonzalez. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to tell you how I would favor those three guys, I would have to reluctantly say Gonzalez, Collie, and then Garcon in that order, but all three should be drafted within two or three rounds of each other in 2010, and right now it seems like any one of them could be better than the other two.
Carnell Williams
~~I've got to be honest, I am not incredibly crazy about the Caddy anymore. Maybe it's because of the obvious injury history including his recurring patellar tendon problems, maybe it's because although he was the Buccaneers' starter this season his stats were very pedestrian in most of his games, or maybe it's because he has a little bit of company in the backfield (Derrick Ward, Earnest Graham) with him who could probably do no worse than he did this season. However, this season was the first time in his career he actually played a full sixteen games, starting in fifteen of them. He will still have a pretty nasty "injury prone" label forever associated with his name, but if you remember correctly, so did Fred Taylor for the first four years of his career. Just like Williams, Taylor went through four injury riddled seasons before finally being able to play in a full sixteen games. Taylor was able to follow up his first ever sixteen game season with another one, posting his best season totals of his career during that second consecutive full-length season. However, it is not fair to compare Williams to Taylor because Taylor was clearly a better RB than Williams at that time in his career, and he had many more opportunities. All I'm saying is Williams finally stayed healthy for a full season and built a little season-ending momentum with 88 total yards and a receiving TD in week 15 and 148 total yards and a rushing TD in week 16. Not a bad way to round out his first ever full-length season. He will be a restricted free agent this offseason, but I fully expect the Bucs to be able to retain him with a cheap tender. He is not a very "sexy" sleeper option, but he has a good chance of outperforming his draft value.
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