Fantasy Footballaholics Anonymous

Arian Foster will BUST

2011-09-11T12:27:00.002-04:00

~~I will begin by expressing my gratitude for those who have continued to check in to my blog, even though my increasingly busy schedule has kept me away from most of my extracurricular activity, including blogging. I wish I could write a good full-length blog with in-depth analysis in an hour, but it is much more time consuming than that. However, I will be posting much more frequently (and probably in a more abbreviated fashion) during the season, so don't forget about me.~~

This is not one of my fancy-shmancy professional article looking blog entries, because I don't intend it to be. I am simply recording one of my boldest predictions in a while, and I wanted to have it dated before the season begins to live or die by it.

For the entire offseason, I have been calling Arian Foster overrated...getting sick over those who were riding his jock after dominating the fantasy world last year. Before his hamstring issues, and even before losing his pro-bowl fullback, Vonta Leach, there were red flags that were being entirely disregarded by FFaholics everywhere.

First, he had a total of 392 touches last season, which is an incredible amount of touches for any RB. That kind of usage usually wears down a RB and becomes apparent the following season when he keeps getting nagging injuries that hamper his abilities.

Second, Ben Tate is returning from last season's IR. This is the same Ben Tate that was drafted to be the starting RB for Coach Kubiak's zone-blocking system. This is the same Ben Tate that was expected to be the starter for Houston in 2010, before he broke his ankle. This is the same Ben Tate who has a very similar style, size and strength as Arian Foster, but is faster. He is basically a faster Foster.

Third, I have always feared the "flash-in-the-pan" possibility. That possibility is always much stronger under a Mike Shanahan system, and Gary Kubiak is a Shanahan disciple. Shanahan and Kubiak have never played favorites with RBs, and both have always been able to find a new star each year. Just like Steve Slaton, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, and Reuben Droughns, I have always feared that Foster would be quickly replaced as soon as he became less effective. Granted, Foster is a more rounded RB than those mentioned, but the Shanahan system still speaks for itself.

After all of those fears had me rank Foster sixth among RBs, losing his probowl fullback Vonta Leach in free agency had me fear that sixth may still be overrated for Foster. Now the hamstring issues persist, and have currently knocked him out of the week 1 game against the Colts. These kind of hamstring issues are very typical of a RB who got overworked the previous year.

All these factors guarantee that Foster is, and has been overrated, but with his recent reoccurring hamstring issues, I will take the overrated call to the limit and say that ARIAN FOSTER IS A 2011 BUST! The main reason he will bust is because he will miss more than one game due to injury.

Since I wasn't able post my sleepers and busts earlier this year, I will quickly name some of my top players who I like and don't like for this season and I will not include Peyton Manning.

Busts ~~ A Foster, R Mendenhall, M Turner, K Moreno, BJ Green-Ellis, J Freeman, M Colston, S Johnson, S Moss (every year), T Gonzalez.

Overrated ~~ F Gore, S Jackson, M Forte, P Hillis, D Williams, C Benson, C Wells, M Vick, E Manning, G Jennings, M Austin, M Williams TB, J Maclin, V Davis

Underrated ~~ S Greene, R Bush, T Jones, S Bradford, K Orton, K Kolb, R Fitzpatrick, A Boldin, M Floyd, N Burleson, J Knox, M Sims-Walker, V Shaincoe

Sleepers ~~ M Ingram, B Tate, M Hardesty, J Starks, D Carter, J Snelling, C Newton, M Manningham, D Amendola, S Breaston, E Bennett, Ant Brown, M Thomas, G Olsen, M Lewis, J Gresham, J Cook

Breakouts ~~ T Hightower, L Blount, M Stafford, M Ryan, D Bryant, J Graham

2011 Rookie Rankings

2011-07-29T22:40:00.003-04:00

Top 20

1. RB Mark Ingram NO
2. WR A.J. Green CIN
3. WR Julio Jones ATL
4. RB Mikel Leshoure DET
5. RB Ryan Williams ARI
6. RB Daniel Thomas MIA
7. WR Greg Little CLE
8. WR Randall Cobb GB
9. RB Delone Carter IND
10. QB Blaine Gabbert JAC
11. WR Jonathan Baldwin KC
12. WR Torrey Smith BAL
13. QB Cam Newton CAR
14. WR Leonard Hankerson WAS
15. QB Christian Ponder MIN
16. RB DeMarco Murray DAL
17. RB Roy Helu WAS
18. QB Jake Locker TEN
19. WR Vincent Brown SD
20. QB Colin Kaepernick SF

QBs

1. Blaine Gabbert JAC
2. Cam Newton CAR
3. Christian Ponder MIN
4. Jake Locker TEN
5. Colin Kaepernick SF
6. Ryan Mallett NE
7. Andy Dalton CIN
8. Ricky Stanzi KC

RBs

1. Mark Ingram NO
2. Mikel Leshoure DET
3. Ryan Williams ARI
4. Daniel Thomas MIA
5. Delone Carter IND
6. DeMarco Murray DAL
7. Roy Helu WAS
8. Shane Vereen NE
9. Kendall Hunter SF
10. Taiwan Jones OAK
11. Johnny White BUF
12. Alex Green GB
13. Jacquizz Rodgers ATL
14. Jordan Todman SD
15. Anthony Allen BAL
16. Jamie Harper TEN
17. Dion Lewis PHI
18. Stevan Ridley NE
19. Bilal Powell NYJ

WRs

1. AJ Green CIN
2. Julio Jones ATL
3. Greg Little CLE
4. Randall Cobb GB
5. Jonathan Baldwin KC
6. Torrey Smith BAL
7. Leonard Hankerson WAS
8. Vincent Brown SD
9. Titus Young DET
10. Edmond Gates MIA
11. Tandon Doss BAL
12. Greg Salas STL
13. Niles Paul WAS
14. Jerrel Jernigan NYG
15. Cecil Shorts JAC
16. Scotty McKnight NYJ

TEs

1. Kyle Rudolph MIN
2. Lance Kendricks STL
3. Luke Stocker TB
4. Virgil Green DEN
5. Robert Housler ARI
6. D.J. Williams GB
7. Jordan Cameron CLE

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Official Rookie/Free Agent Draft 2011

2011-06-01T12:04:00.002-04:00

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, relatively standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will post and briefly comment on most picks. The draft officially began May 1st. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=2011draft

**My Picks
Free Agent Picks

1.01 ~ RB Mark Ingram, NO

Relentless and physical. He may not be the most electric RB prospect to enter the NFL draft, but he was made for the NFL. He possesses elite vision and awareness, sheds tackles, fully utilizes blockers, is strong and physical, and gives every ounce of effort with every run. He is not as fast or quick as you would hope for in a top prospect, but the same things were said about Emmitt Smith, who Ingram compares favorably to. Ingram was never a prototypical workhorse RB at Alabama, but I contend that just means he is more fresh. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush (if he is not cut or traded) will not be forgotten about, but they will certainly need to step aside. Expect Ingram to be the starter, but don't expect him to be used as much as the likes of Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, or Steven Jackson.

1.02 ~ WR Julio Jones, ATL

Athletic and fearless. I'm not really surprised that he got chosen before A.J. Green. Jones exploded at the combine showing off his speed, agility, and athleticism, while his play on the field at Alabama showed his physicality and aggressiveness. He possesses every physical trait you want in a WR. He was tabbed as a WR1 coming out of Alabama, but he will instead play second fiddle to Roddy White, tapering his value a bit.

1.03 ~ WR A.J. Green, CIN

The most polished WR prospect in a while. His most impressive attributes are his hands and route running skills. Those two items are very important concepts for an NFL WR, concepts that most WR prospects still need to learn at the professional level. Along with his phenomenal athleticism, speed, size, and competitiveness, Green is the most gifted and NFL ready WR on the board. Unfortunately, he gets drafted into a messy situation in Cincinnati, where it appears the offense is entering a complete revamping mode. It remains to be seen how well and how soon he can capitalize for his fantasy owners with a rookie QB and new offensive players in place.

**1.04 ~ RB Mikel Leshoure, DET

Burst and quickness conjoined in a power RB. After much thought and consideration, I decided to pick Leshoure over Ryan Williams, who is widely considered a better dynasty RB prospect. Skill should always be the first and most important factor considered when deciding between multiple players for your dynasty draft choice, but opportunity and team situations should never be ignored. I really liked Leshoure because he has excellent quickness and acceleration in traffic to go along with his strength and power. He should be on the field often, maybe alongside of Jahvid Best on some plays, and he will see regular goal line work. Even though Williams may be the better prospect, there were two situational factors that caused me to lean toward picking Leshoure. First, he only has one RB (who is injury prone) to share carries with, unlike Ryan Williams who has two RBs to share with. Second, the Lions passing offense will be much more effective in taking pressure off of the running game than the Cardinals passing offense will be. It was a tough choice, but I am confident than Leshoure will pay higher dividends, at least within the next three years.

1.05 ~ RB Ryan Williams, ARI

Low, tackle-breaking playmaker. Williams' skill set involves more one-cut runs, breaking tackles, and fearless, energetic running. The way he runs low and breaks tackles, he can muster up a long run on any play. However, he has dealt with injuries during his college career, and he will have to share with Beanie Wells (who is injury prone) and passing-down stalwart Tim Hightower. Even though he is certainly top 5 material in all rookie/FA drafts, he must also survive a rebuilding Cardinals passing offense which defenses will not respect. He still has major stud potential and a slightly better skill-set than Leshoure, but his situation is much less attractive. Williams rounds out the top tier of RBs in this draft.

1.06 ~ RB Daniel Thomas, MIA

Big and physical. Thomas is a potential every down RB who is big, strong, and durable. Even though he possesses a little bit of quickness and burst, he is more of a lumbering big man than he is quick on his feet. Then again, I thought the same thing about Arian Foster coming out of Tennessee. Thomas enters a great situation in Miami, where both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown may be hitting the road. If Thomas does suddenly find himself at the top of the RB pecking order for the Dolphins, that is good for his fantasy owners. However, that excitement should be tapered until the Dolphins can build a o-line capable of run blocking. Some may consider Thomas to be in the top tier of RBs along with Ingram, Leshoure, and Williams because of his potentially great opportunity, but his skill level keeps him at the top of the second tier.

1.07 ~ WR Torrey Smith, BAL

Explosive player who gives full effort. He is a perfect fit for what the Ravens need. He is a speedy WR who provides a vertical threat the Ravens need to stretch defenses and open up Anquan Boldin on underneath routes. Smith marks the start of the second tier of WRs, but he is not necessarily the top WR of that tier. Picking a WR2 (who was drafted to a run-first offense) this early is indicative of the lack of offensive skill talent in this draft class. Given the options, this was still a solid choice with the seventh overall pick, even though the owner of this pick needed QB depth (addressed later with Cam Newton).

1.08 ~ QB Blaine Gabbert, JAC

Possesses all the traits of a successful NFL QB. Gabbert has the size, speed, arm strength, quick release, accuracy, and mental ability to be successful as a pro. Before the NFL Draft, he was considered the top QB prospect and he was treated as such in this rookie/FA draft. I like Gabbert to be the best QB out of this draft class, not only for his intangibles and skills, but also because he will be groomed behind David Garrard for likely a full season. That will give him ample time to transition from a spread offense to a pro-style offense and fully absorb what it takes to be an NFL QB. This is about where he should be drafted, but an owner with a desperate need for QB could comfortably draft him one or two picks earlier.

1.09 ~ RB Roy Helu Jr, WAS

The Shanahan factor...big time. Without Mike Shanahan drafting Helu, he would be more of an end of second round pick. Helu is a prototypical, one-cut, zone blocking style of RB. He is pretty fast and possesses the size and build to become a punishing runner for the Redskins. However, he does not have good lateral agility and isn't as powerful as his size suggests. This pick may be a reach, but the fact is that Shanahan's track record for drafting mid-late round "one-cut RBs" speaks for itself. Besides, at this point in the draft with the available talent left (or lack thereof), most of these remaining picks end up being a blindfolded toss at a dartboard. I would not have spent a first round pick on Helu, but I knew he wouldn't make it out of the first.

1.10 ~ WR Leonard Hankerson, WAS

Very little WR competition in Washington. The last pick was the start of everything goes...and the trend continues. Once teams within the next eight to ten picks weren't able to trade, there ended up being a lot of reaches for certain desired players. Outside of the top three (Ingram, Green, Jones), the rest of the top tier of RBs (Leshoure, Williams), and Thomas, there are mixed opinions on how the rest of the rookies rank. One thing I know for sure is that the next three (or at least two of the next three) WRs should have been drafted before Hankerson. Hankerson doesn't do anything spectacular, but he does a lot of things very good (speed, toughness, and hands). Most importantly, he gets drafted into a situation where he will be thrust into the WR1 role sooner than most of the top WR prospects, which is enough to inflate his value.

1.11 ~ QB Andy Dalton, CIN

Bye bye Carson Palmer...I guess. This pick was rather surprising with the likes of Cam Newton and Jake Locker on the board. It's not a bad pick so much as it was unexpected. Dalton should be available early in the second round of most drafts. At any rate, he is a good leader, is accurate, and immediately has a new toy in A.J. Green. He also has the tendency to float his deep passes and throws too many of them into coverage when he thinks his opponent is reeling. These last two factors will likely contribute to Dalton being turnover prone. He will be immediately inserted into the lineup if Palmer doesn't return, and will struggle to convert from a spread offense.

1.12 ~ WR Jonathan Baldwin, KC

Jump ball specialist. When I watch this incredibly athletic player's highlight reel, I can't help to think he is a slower, less disciplined Calvin Johnson. He is 6'4" 230 lbs, he high points the ball and out-jumps his opponents, the ball sticks to his hands like Velcro, and he is fearless in the middle. I am not trying to call him a future elite NFL receiver, but his potential seems gigantic. He shouldn't have much of a problem working his way into the Chiefs lineup, once he refines his poor route running abilities. Having Matt Cassel as his QB isn't exactly comforting, but he still has good value here as a second tier WR.

2.01 ~ QB Cam Newton, CAR

Vince Young finally got picked! OK, so their deliveries are very different, and the comparison may be a bit unfair, but just like Young, Newton is all athleticism (great as it is) and emotion while lacking in the cerebral area and fundamentals necessary to be a successful NFL QB.

2.02 ~ WR Greg Little, CLE

If he hadn't been suspended by the NCAA for the entire 2010 season, he would have been mentioned in the same breath as A.J. Green and Julio Jones. He is big and strong, has good hands, can be elusive, and holds enormous playmaker potential. At 2.02, he has the potential to be the steal of the draft. My only concern with him is if he stayed in football shape during his suspension. He could go the way of Mike Williams from USC, who got drafted by Matt Millen in 2005 after a year off.

**2.03 ~ WR Randall Cobb, GB

Another potential steal of the draft, as the last remaining second tier WR falls all the way down to my pick 2.03. I never thought I would have the chance to draft a second tier WR (Torrey Smith, Jonathan Baldwin, Greg Little, or Randall Cobb) this far into the draft. Cobb not only possesses excellent route running and playmaking ability, but he also lands in a beautiful situation in Green Bay with one of the best QBs in the game, a quickly aging Donald Driver, and a free agent James Jones.

2.04 ~ QB Jake Locker, TEN

If he can solve his accuracy issues, he could eventually become an elite QB. He possesses every other attribute you would want in an NFL QB, including incredible athleticism and quick feet, but his accuracy issues (and his progression reads) have absolutely plagued him. If he solves those problems, he is almost automatically pro-bowl caliber. At any rate, he will find the opportunity to prove himself in the starting lineup very quickly.

**2.05 ~ QB Christian Ponder, MIN

There is very little that can be guaranteed about any college football player entering the NFL. I can absolutely guarantee one thing about Christian Ponder: he will learn the Vikings playbook quickly in his first season. Ponder is a very intelligent person. He has already completed his undergraduate degree in finance, earned his MBA and will be halfway through a master’s degree in sports management this fall. Intelligence in an NFL QB is very important for knowing all the team plays, understanding the opponents' defenses, strategy, etc. Ponder will immediately be inserted as the Vikings' starting QB and a new offense will be installed to accommodate his quick rhythm, short-intermediate passing style. He does lack a quality deep-ball, so any big plays from him will likely be the result of WR YAC.

2.06 ~ WR Titus Young, DET

He is a small speedy slot receiver who will likely become the primary punt and kick returner for the Lions. When he is on the field for the offense he will be required to stretch the defense to both open the running game up and draw the deep coverage away from Calvin Johnson. I fear he may be more decoy than receiver, but he will occasionally have explosive fantasy games.

2.07 ~ RB Delone Carter, IND

Potential steal of the draft. I had a very difficult time selecting Christian Ponder over Carter at my 2.05 pick. Carter has a low center of gravity, is strong and thick, and has the most impressive lateral quickness and agility out of all the top RBs. Even more attractive is the situation he gets drafted into with the Colts. Joseph Addai is a free agent and Donald Brown was massively unimpressive this last season. Both players also have a hard time staying healthy. If Addai finds another team, we could quickly see Carter become the starter.

2.08 ~ QB Colin Kaepernick, SF

Gotta give Jim Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt by drafting Kaepernick. As an excellent coach of QBs and a former successful QB, Harbaugh has decided to hang his hat on the development of Kaepernick. Expect Kaepernick to sit a year or two so he can learn to take snaps from under center, amongst other issues.

2.09 ~ TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN

He is the top receiving TE from the draft. He could prove to be an excellent security blanket for the rookie QB Christian Ponder.

2.10 ~ RB Shane Vereen, NE

I have learned to steer clear of Patriot RBs. Drafting Vereen, along with Stevan Ridley simply confirms the Bill Belicheck RB by committee standard where the RBs are always underused. Vereen is more of a third down RB, which makes me wonder how he will share carries with Danny Woodhead.

2.11 ~ RB Bilal Powell, NYJ

2.12 ~ TE Lance Kendricks, STL

3.01 ~ RB DeMarco Murray, DAL

3.02 ~ RB Kendall Hunter, SF

3.03 ~ WR Austin Pettis, STL

3.04 ~ RB Alex Green, GB

3.05 ~ RB Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL

3.06 ~ WR Vincent Brown, SD

Potential steal of the draft.

3.07 ~ RB Johnny White, BUF

3.08 ~ RB Dion Lewis, PHI

3.09 ~ QB Ryan Mallett, NE

Potential steal of the draft, but major patience is required for those who draft him. It will take a Tom Brady injury for Mallett to see the field within the next three to four years.

3.10 ~ WR Jerrel Jernigan, NYG

3.11 ~ WR Jerome Simpson, CIN

The first free agent is off the board. This is pretty good value for a player who ended last season with two very strong performances.

3.12 ~ WR Tandon Doss, BAL

Potential steal of the draft.

3.13 ~ WR Greg Salas, STL

4.01 ~ RB Taiwan Jones, OAK

**4.02 ~ WR Edmond Gates, MIA

Potential steal of the draft. Gates is a true burner and will create big plays with his speed. He is still very raw, but if he improves his route running, he could be a true playmaker.

4.03 ~ WR Niles Paul, WAS

**4.04 ~ TE Ed Dickson, BAL

4.05 ~ RB Jordan Todman, SD

4.06 ~ WR Cecil Shorts, JAC

4.07 ~ RB Da'Rel Scott, NYG

4.08 ~ RB Stevan Ridley, NE

4.09 ~ RB Jamie Harper, TEN

4.10 ~ TE Jordan Cameron, CLE

4.11 ~ QB Ricky Stanzi, KC

Potential steal of the draft.

4.12 ~ TE Tony Gonzalez, ATL

I recently dropped him to make room for youth.

5.01 ~ TE Virgil Green, DEN

5.02 ~ WR Scotty McKnight, NYJ

5.03 ~ TE Rob Housler, ARI

5.04 ~ RB Evan Royster, WAS

5.05 ~ QB Matt Hasselbeck, FA

He is another one of my drops to coincide with my youth movement.

5.06 ~ TE D.J. Williams, GB

5.07 ~ WR Damian Williams, TEN

5.08 ~ TE Luke Stocker, TB

5.09 ~ QB Matt Flynn, GB

5.10 ~ QB Taylor Yates, HOU

5.11 ~ PASSED

5.12 ~ Vikings DST

School's Out

2011-02-06T09:12:00.004-05:00

Every season, mistakes are made, busts are drafted, bad strategies are adopted, bad habits are repeated, and lineup decisions that have been obsessively debated over for an entire week result in wrong decisions. There are certain mistakes that even the cagiest of fantasy veterans make, even though they try to avoid them. Somehow, certain bad habits seem to always haunt you, even though you try your best to avoid them. Every year after those bad habits and choices occur, you should take note...I mean literally write them down somewhere on your drafting and general fantasy football material, so you will have a blatant reminder to avoid those choices during your next draft and/or the following season.

Here is a short list of the more important things we learned or re-learned from this fantasy football season...

~~Never again will I target or consider drafting Steve Smith of the Panthers unless by some major transaction he ends up with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees as his QB. I drafted him in one of my leagues (12-team, PPR) at pick 3.07, and even though I wasn't crazy about drafting him, the top tiers of WRs ran dry quickly and he seemed like the best available WR on the board. What kills me most is that even though I targeted (and drafted) Joseph Addai in the fourth round, Hakeem Nicks was on the board when I picked Smith.

~~Although I targeted less than half of these players in my 2010 drafts, I will put Steven Jackson, Randy Moss (obviously), Anquan Boldin, Chad Ochocinco, Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Carson Palmer in that conversation of no longer targeting...ever again.

~~Don't take a defense early. Quality undrafted waiver wire pickups this season included the Raiders, Patriots, Seahawks, Lions, Chiefs, Falcons, and Cardinals. Instead of burning a mid-round pick on the Vikings, Cowboys, or Ravens you could have taken a chance on some quality sleeper options like Peyton Hillis, Santonio Holmes, Jay Cutler, or Matt Ryan. Every season, there are always several free agent defenses that quickly play themselves into the top 10 of fantasy defenses.

~~Kickers are solely reserved for your last round. This is more of a reminder than something that should be learned. You should already know this, right?

~~If you try to pick a value QB in the middle rounds as your first QB drafted, don't be afraid to quickly draft another one as insurance as quickly as the following round. This especially held true for those owners who drafted Kevin Kolb as their first QB in the middle rounds during their 2010 drafts.

~~Even though most fantasy football veterans will advise you to be patient on the waiver wire and not get excited about a free agent having a huge performance, I learned this season that I would have absolutely smashed the competition in any of my leagues if I immediately picked up one or more of the likes of Michael Vick, Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, Marcedes Lewis, Mike Tolbert, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Chris Ivory, Ryan Torain, or Matt Cassell after their first notable performance. Usually patience is a virtue, understanding that most free agent players who have a big performance one week are likely to retreat back into the kingdom of scrubs the following week. However, if you have the roster space available, it is certainly worth jumping all over any player who comes out of nowhere with a big game. If I wasn't so patient this season, I had the roster space to own at least half of those players I just mentioned. Fortunately, I quickly learned my lesson several weeks into the season and was able to quickly grab Danny Woodhead and LeGarette Blount in one of my leagues as soon as they made an impact.

~~Matchups in the playoffs are more important than ever. The "riding your players who got you there" theory can be detrimental. Players like Matt Ryan, Peyton Hillis, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Ahmad Bradshaw, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne, and Terrell Owens struggled against tougher matchups during weeks 14 through 16. If you have a safe backup option with a good matchup, benching a better player with a tough matchup is certainly not unorthodox and would be advised depending on the players and matchups involved.

~~Never ever pick up a QB, RB, or WR from free agency and immediately start him during your fantasy playoffs, unless your team suddenly suffered an outbreak of injuries or a RB goes down and happens to have a very solid free agent backup taking his place for a game. This especially holds true for WRs. By the time week 14 rolls around the waiver wire should be picked pretty darn clean in those three positions. If you are in the playoffs, then you must be strong with most, if not all of your starters. The only time you might consider picking up a free agent QB, RB, or WR is if your starter(s) at one of those positions are facing a tough matchup(s), and/or you have a good WR having a backup QB throwing him the ball. There may be a player on waivers who has an easy matchup and looks enticing, but like I said, after a season's worth of transactions, that player is probably average at best. I re-learned that lesson the hard way when in the Championship game (week 16) of my keeper league, I picked up Kevin Walter and plugged him into my lineup. My other options as my third WR included Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, and Blair White. Knox was facing the Jets awesome secondary, Harvin traveled to Philly and had the rookie Joe Webb as his QB for the game, and White needed a TD to be fantasy relevant. Walter had just come off of a nice 7 catch, 79 yards, and 1 TD performance in week 15 at Tennessee and was facing a simple Broncos secondary for week 16. I didn't pick him up until I heard the news that Andre Johnson was going to miss the game, so I figured Walter would be Matt Schaub's top target and a better option than the WRs on my bench, who were facing adverse scenarios. Walter proceeded to get a measly 14 yards and 0 TDs, while Knox lit up Darelle Revis and Co. for 92 yards and 2 TDs, Harvin recorded 100 yards, and White did indeed get a TD. Fortunately, none of that mattered because my opponent scored enough points to beat me, even if I had Knox's 21.2 points in my lineup...but still, never again.

Theory of Every Third Season

I have a working theory that I have been formulating and speculating about over the past few years. I call it "The Theory of Every Third Season." I'm not referring to the obvious third season of WRs theory, but rather the third year of general fantasy football gaming. Every three years it seems that there are more unordinary or strange occurrences, more so than most fantasy football seasons, such as higher fantasy player turnover at the tops of stats sheets, a larger number of breakouts and busts, more success for amateur owners with either unorthodox strategies or lack of strategies altogether, and simple dumb luck being dished out at a higher rate. I don't know if this just occurs to me in my leagues, or if it is a widespread phenomenon.

For me, it began in 2001, my first year playing fantasy football. I came to my draft utterly unprepared with no cheat sheets, strategies, or ideas of how things worked. I was lucky to have Marshall Faulk fall to me at the fourth pick, and then I turned around and picked Jeff Garcia (then with the 49ers and breaking some of Joe Montana's and Steve Young's passing yards records). After that it was a complete crap shoot. I basically just filled the positions then picked the best football (not necessarily fantasy football) players available to fill my bench. Needless to say, I went on to win the Championship by beating the Commissioner at that time, who had absolutely dominated that league in previous years. That was a crazy season, and I ended up being part of the more fluky side of that year, which included my WR2 being a 39 year old Jerry Rice looking youthful with the Raiders.

2004 included Mushin Muhammad topping the WRs lists in the absence of Steve Smith in Carolina, the emergence of Antonio Gates, and the fall from the top of Ahman Green. 2004 may have not been the greatest example of my working theory, but 2007 proved to be off the wall.

2007 saw the fantasy birth of Adrian Peterson, an unexpected revival of Jamal Lewis' career in Cleveland, the emergence of Ryan Grant mid-season, the downfall of Larry Johnson, Derek Anderson coming out of nowhere to have a big season (his only fantasy relevant season), the end of Marvin Harrison, the revival of Randy Moss in New England....I could keep going on and on.

This last season saw all of Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, Michael Vick, Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, Darren McFadden, Steve Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, and Mike Wallace have repeat dominant performances and reach the top 10 of fantasy players at their respective positions. Of course some of these players were quality sleeper targets, but to see so many free agent pickups and sleepers be so high on stat sheets is unusual. Meanwhile, early round picks like Randy Moss, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Beanie Wells, Steve Smith (both of them), Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Brent Celek (who was an early pick at his position, not necessarily an early round pick), Cedric Benson, and Chad Ochocinco fell to the wayside.

Fantasy player turnover and excessive breakouts and busts are only part of the equation. Dumb luck seemed more prevalent during those seasons. This ideal of luck is likely more subjective for my leagues, but I am betting the "luck" occurrence is higher during these every third seasons throughout the fantasy football world, likely related to the player turnover factors.

The example of my first season in 2001 is the start. In 2007, a new owner in the league I commission spent her first round pick on Jamal Lewis and absolutely wasted valuable mid-round picks on garbage. After extensive ridicule for the next couple of weeks, Lewis actually did very well (his first year in Cleveland), and that owner "laughed" all the way to the best record in our league, with the help of Tom Brady and Terrell Owens.

2007 also marks one of the only two years I did not make any fantasy playoffs since I started playing in 2001.

This season, an owner drafted Arian Foster early, Peyton Hillis late, and picked up Michael Vick off of the waiver wire after week 1. What kills me is he had last priority on the waivers, and every other owner, including myself, had a chance to get Vick. Unfortunately, the rest of us bought into Andy Reid emphasizing that Kevin Kolb was still his starting QB after returning from a concussion. That owner went 13-0 on the season (with the help of Maurice Jones-Drew, Calvin Johnson, and Antonio Gates). The rest of his picks were mainly garbage, and outside of Gates he didn't have to deal with any major injuries.

The eventual Champion of my keeper league adopted weak strategies by drafting his QB (Tom Brady) in the second round, his TE (Dallas Clark) in the third round, and his defense (Jets) in the seventh round. Granted he had two RBs and a WR as his keepers, but those two RBs were Cedric Benson in the fourth round and Shonn Greene in the eleventh round.

So what the hell does all this mean? It certainly does not mean that all the seasons in between are pretty cut and dry. Every season experiences turnover and unexpected results, just not as much as the third seasons I mentioned. What it does mean, is that during the 2013 season, I will reorganize my strategies and attempt to take more chances in order to compensate for the expected randomness. If this theory indeed holds true, than maybe I will have a second round QB and score on more sleepers. Or maybe, this third season pattern is something I can't affect in any way, and it is simply the years that amateurs succeed, and certain owners get lucky. Maybe it is just part of the thread of the realm of fantasy football that cannot be influenced.

Much of my observations which caused me to formulate this theory are certainly subjective. Am I suggesting you should perform unorthodox drafts and transactions during the 2013 season, 2016 season, and so on? Absolutely not.

Am I just "talking" out of my rear?...

Fantasy Playoffs Preview (Weeks 11-13)

2010-12-09T15:11:00.004-05:00

Either you're in, or you temporarily lost your taste for football. It's playoff time! Chances are if you scored the likes of Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, or Kyle Orton off of the waiver wire, you are in the playoffs. If you were savvy enough to draft the likes of Arian Foster, Hakeem Nicks, Philip Rivers, Dwayne Bowe, or Terrell Owens, you are probably wearing your dancing shoes. If you happened to be like one owner in my keeper league, who happened to keep Antonio Gates in the sixth round, draft Arian Foster in the second round, draft Peyton Hillis in the fifteenth round, pick up Michael Vick off of waivers after week 1 (and right after Andy Reid declared Kevin Kolb to continue being the starter once he got healthy following the concussion he suffered in the week 1 game versus the Packers), and trade Maurice Jones-Drew for Calvin Johnson and Ladainian Tomlinson before the week 4 games, chances are you a rolling pretty damn high into the playoffs with a 13-0 record and about to destroy many league records held by me.

Whatever the case, if you are in the playoffs, you should be obsessing about your roster, potential free agent pickups, matchups of not only this weekend but also of the entire fantasy playoffs (especially for fantasy defenses), and how the 13-0 team can be upset. This is the time of year where you start your studs, but many players can be benched for other players with great matchups. Just because you have been winning games on strong performances from Brandon Lloyd, Matt Ryan, LeSean McCoy, Steve Johnson, Chris Ivory, and Vernon Davis doesn't mean you should start them automatically. This is the time of the year where matchups are more important than ever. Hopefully, you were savvy enough to stock up your roster with players having great matchups during these next three weeks. The owner who thinks he should roll with all his top players throughout the playoffs, no matter what the matchups are is likely to come away disappointed, unless your starting roster is Michael Vick, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Calvin Johnson, Sidney Rice, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gates, and the Eagles defense like the owner in my league I mentioned above. I will try to give you some advice on certain players in the playoffs to increase your chances of winning.

Unbenchable Players

Aaron Rodgers
~~Once again we find him at the top of the QB stat sheets. The Packers lost their running game, so Rodgers took it upon himself to single-handedly dismantle his opponents. His domination will continue into the playoffs, especially in weeks 14 and 15 against the Lions and Patriots.

Michael Vick
~~There are many words to describe his season like unbelievable, phenomenal, redemption, and unstoppable. He is the second best QB in fantasy, and he has only played in seven and two half games out of the twelve. He can't be contained. Unbenchable is stating the blatantly obvious.

Philip Rivers
~~Undrafted rookie WR Seyi Ajirotutu. Do I need to elaborate?

Tom Brady
~~His playoff schedule starts pretty rough against the Bears and Packers in weeks 14 and 15, but has he ever been benched outside of bye weeks and 2008 since about midway through the 2002 season?

Peyton Manning
~~He has been humiliated over his last three games, throwing an uncharacteristic 11 interceptions in that span. Much of the blame can be placed on the lack of offensive skill starters due to injury, and lack of timing between Peyton and the replacements. However, if his namesake, history, or pure desire for excellence isn't enough to start him unquestionably, maybe his matchups against the soft-against-fantasy-QBs pass defense touting Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders can put you at ease.

Arian Foster
~~The best fantasy RB should stay on top the rest of the year.

Adrian Peterson
~~If you would ever consider benching him, even if he is playing at less than 100%, you need to quit playing this game and give up anything football related altogether, moron.

Peyton Hillis
~~The best fantasy fullback to have ever played the game...and we thought Mike Alstott made pretty sweet stats for a fullback back in the day.

Maurice Jones-Drew
~~So much for him underachieving. His remaining schedule is awesome just to boot.

Chris Johnson
~~He was limited in the last two games for God only knows what reasons. I don't care if my team is down by more than two or three touchdowns. If CJ2K is in my backfield, I will feed him the roc and allow the best playmaker on the field to try to make something happen. These last two games should be just a blip on the radar, and his matchups against the Colts, Texans, and Chiefs should make sure your not thinking pine with him.

Michael Turner
~~He hasn't been overly spectacular this season, but he is probably your top RB (maybe second with Arian Foster or Peyton Hillis), and his playoff schedule against the Panthers, Seahawks, and Saints is his easiest three game stretch all season.

Darren McFadden
~~He finally broke out this year and proved he could be a fantasy stud. His stats may have dwindled a bit lately, but he also has pleasant matchups against the Jaguars, Broncos (had 196 total yards and 4 TDs against them earlier this year), and Colts.

LeGarrette Blount
~~That's right...LeGarrette Blount is absolutely unbenchable for your playoffs. He just ran over the Falcons stout run defense for 103 yards and 1 TD, the same Falcons run defense that only allowed one RB all year top 100 yards against them before they got Blounted. That only makes me like him. Couple that effort with the fact that he will be able to carry that momentum into games against cupcake run defenses like the Redskins, Lions, and Seahawks and now I love him for the playoffs. Don't worry about that little chitter-chatter about Blount losing goalline work...he'll find TDs.

Dwayne Bowe
~~He posted a zero last weekend? Really!?!? He does have another tough matchup against the Chargers coming up, but he is hard to keep out of the endzone and therefore hard to keep out of your starting lineup.

Roddy White
~~He is a close second in targets behind Reggie Wayne.

Greg Jennings
~~Since week 6, he has absolutely been on a tear with four 100 yard games and 8 total TDs during that span. That momentum should continue against the Lions and Patriots the next two weeks.

Calvin Johnson
~~It doesn't matter who his QB is, who his opponent is (other than Darelle Revis who shut him down this year), or where he is playing. He is such a freak of nature playmaker that he is apt to break off a big TD play at any given time.

Reggie Wayne
~~Self explanatory

Andre Johnson
~~Self explanatory

Miles Austin
~~Dez Bryant is out, and the schedule gets easier. That is two factors that equal increased production.

Antonio Gates
~~Self explanatory

Jason Witten
~~He already has had a consistent amount of targets, and should get more with Dez Bryant out for the year.

Playoff Busts

Mark Sanchez
~~He has possibly the toughest remaining schedule for starting QBs. The Dolphins, Steelers, and Bears are all top defenses at limiting QBs.

The Lions QBs
~~Whether it's Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill, or Matthew Stafford, none of these guys are worth having faith in for the playoffs. Add a difficult remaining schedule into the mix only confirms that their butts will be planted firmly on your bench.

Lesean McCoy
~~He has had really huge games against some strong defenses, but he has also been a bit inconsistent. He faces the Cowboys, Giants, and Vikings in the fantasy playoffs, and all teams are strong at limiting RBs. You can bet the Cowboys and Giants will utilize their speed on defense to limit the running of both McCoy and Michael Vick. One of McCoy's big games this year was against the Giants. Do you think they will allow a repeat performance?

Jamaal Charles
~~He has been running at a torrid pace...everywhere except into the endzone. Take his lack of redzone usage and sprinkle in some Chargers and Rams, and he could cause you to pull your hair out.

Matt Forte
~~He is a victim of yet another tough remaining schedule against the Patriots, Vikings, and Jets. He can also be hit or miss in Mike Martz's offensive schemes.

Ahmad Bradshaw
~~OK, so the common theme amongst the potential busts is a tough remaining schedule. Ditto here, injuries, and Brandon Jacobs...enough said.

LaDainian Tomlinson
~~Tough schedule...is there an echo here? Besides, exactly how long can his overused legs hold up anymore?

Brandon Lloyd
~~With the promotion of RBs coach Eric Studesville following the unceremonious release of Josh McDaniels, it is quite apparent that the new direction of the Broncos offense will be much more run oriented.

Terrell Owens
~~Tough schedule, old legs, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Larry Fitzgerald
~~His situation can be easily explained by the multitude of QBs throwing him the ball. He will now have rookie John Skelton as his QB, likely for the remainder of the year. Even though Skelton should be the future franchise QB for the Cardinals, he is still very raw and untested, which will cause Fitzgerald to suffer the rest of this year.

Most of the players that have gone unmentioned will fall subject to the matchup game. For example, don't be afraid to bench Mike Tolbert against the 49ers in week 15 for Jonathan Stewart against the Cardinals. The only time you should consider benching a stud like Ray Rice or Steven Jackson is if you have a reliable backup with a cake matchup opposed to your stud having a difficult matchup.

Dynasty Corner

I will begin to add this section to my blogs. I haven't decided if it will be an every week thing or what kind of information and format will be used. For now I will just include dynasty league relevant thoughts and let it evolve from there over the weeks.

~~Welcome to elite status Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Hakeem Nicks, and Dwayne Bowe.

~~Arian Foster and Peyton Hillis are not elite, simply because of the presence of Ben Tate in Houston and Montario Hardesty in Cleveland. Both of those rookies were drafted by their respective teams in the second round of the 2010 draft to be major cogs in those teams' offensive plans. Foster's success is so huge because of the Texans' zone-blocking system. Tate ran in a very similar system at Auburn and is faster than Foster. Hillis is having the best statistical season a fullback could have ever dreamed of mainly because of the Browns' offensive line, which is one of the NFL's best.

~~Now that Josh McDaniels has been fired, it is almost guaranteed that Kyle Orton's and Brandon Lloyd's stays toward the top of the fantasy world were merely visits and not permanent. Both players may still find success, but don't overrate them. This should be both players' best career season.

~~Staying with the same team, Tim Tebow's future is now in flux, but Demaryius Thomas' and Eric Decker's value should stay the same.

~~Watch for backups starting to get more opportunities once their respective teams are either eliminated from the NFL playoffs, or have their playoff seeds clinched. Watch for players like James Starks, Tashard Choice, CJ Spiller, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, John Skelton, Jimmy Graham, Joe Webb, Jared Cook, Golden Tate, Brian Brohm, Anthony Dixon, Bernard Scott, David Nelson, Ed Dickson, Taylor Price, Damian Williams, and Travis Beckham to get increased opportunities and see what they can accomplish.

One Thought

2010-11-22T05:49:00.013-05:00

~~I must apologize. My last blog included some thoughts that were about three weeks old, specifically the two thoughts on the Lions. I was so anxious to publish that blog (finally) that I didn't get a chance to thoroughly proofread it. I will recant my comments on essentially the entire Lions RB situation. Jahvid Best is no longer a viable fantasy starter with multiple turf toe injuries, and his workload is now being drastically reduced to help him heal. Once the Lions are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, expect Best to be an IR candidate. Also, Kevin Smith was back and is now back on the IR after thumb surgery. Look for Maurice Morris to get the "Lions share" (ha...ha...ha) of the carries for the rest of the season, or until Best is able to run his cuts properly. Morris is actually a solid flex option.

Analyze This ~ Superbowl Prediction (Weeks 8-10)

2010-11-20T15:06:00.001-05:00

The NFL season is just past the midway point. Around this time I always like to make Superbowl predictions to see how I stack up against other prognosticators. Over the last several seasons, I have made a habit of predicting "darkhorse teams" to make a Superbowl run, especially since many of the popular powerhouse teams get defeated by lesser ranked teams. In fact, before this last Superbowl (XLIV) between the two no. 1 seeded Saints and Colts, the Superbowl has not hosted two no. 1 seeds since 1993, when the Cowboys defeated the Bills in Superbowl XXVIII. Over the last decade, there always seems to be at least one 4, 5, or 6th seeded team making a lot of noise in the playoffs and threatening a legitimate Superbowl run. I hit one out of the park when I called the Arizona Cardinals to shock the world and play in Superbowl XLIII following the 2008 season on FootballDiehards.com (screen name "jdmakawiz"). At the beginning of this year following the 2009 season, I nailed another call predicting the Saints v Colts Superbowl, even though that prediction came in the first round of the playoffs.

Ultimately, I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone, or say how great I am, or even tell you to take my picks to Vegas. It's fun, whether I am right, wrong, or ridiculed.

This season has had more parity than normal, when compared to the last decade worth of seasons. The fact is, we know nothing right now. As much as that is the case for most mid-season Superbowl predictions, this year has more sub .500 teams that could still be considered playoff contenders. The only things certain about the NFL and teams' standings just about every season over the last several is the NFC West will be awful, the AFC South will be tough, at least one wildcard team will come from the NFC East, the Colts are always in the playoffs as long as Peyton Manning continues to be their on-field coach, and the Bills and Lions will always suck.

The season shakes down to these potential contenders built to make a Superbowl run: AFC ~ Jets, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, and Chargers; NFC ~ Packers, Giants, Eagles, Falcons, and Saints. Just as an added bonus, I will throw in the Bears as a "darkhorse" team that could pull off playoff upsets. Don't forget the Bears went to the Superbowl a few years back with Rex Grossman at the helm, and their defense this year is as good as it has been for a while. As you can tell, the AFC has much tougher competition than the NFC. In my processes to predict a Superbowl contender I usually eliminate the teams who have continual injury difficulties (likely into the playoffs), weak defenses (the 2006 Colts are the only team with a bottom dollar defense I can remember winning the Superbowl), and can be turnover prone or have a poor turnover ratio. Injury problems and average or worse defenses eliminate the Colts, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs, and Titans. Turnover ratios on the negative side eliminate the Chargers (-9), Giants (-5), Saints (-4), and Ravens (-1). That leaves the Jets, Steelers, Packers, and Eagles. Now these four remaining teams seem like logical picks for the Championship games, but there are way too many factors involved to make picks based on numbers. The turnover ratio stats cause the Patriots and Falcons to be back in the discussion because their ratios are in the top four in the NFL. One last remaining factor, which can cause mid-season predictions to be more crap shoots than anything is the simple fact that teams can turn things around in the second half of the season and into the playoffs (or missing the playoffs). Besides, once teams are into the playoffs, it's a whole new season for them. New plays open up and the intensity level raises to ridiculous heights. Regular season numbers are mainly thrown out when discussing playoff performances.

All the BS and talking out of the way, here are my stone cold predictions.

NFC Championship ~ Falcons v Eagles
AFC Championship ~ Jets v Patriots
Superbowl XLV ~ Eagles v Jets
Superbowl Winner ~ The New York Jets

So you may say I am drinking some serious Kool-Aid. I took a popular pick with the Jets and am riding the hottest player in the NFL in Michael Vick. You're right. Comparing them against the competition, these two teams have the best chance of playing in the Superbowl, in my humble opinion.

The Jets have Darelle Revis at full strength (he shut down Calvin Johnson in week 9), which makes their defense twice as good, their running game is very strong, and Mark Sanchez is taking care of the roc.

I did not pick the Eagles because of the Michael Vick factor, but he was the deciding factor. Their defense is very strong and they have two RBs who can make big plays.

I still can't help to think that the Bears are going to pull off a surprise upset or two, and you can never count out Peyton Manning.

Playoff Run Trades

Buy Low (or quality pickups): Vince Young, Jay Cutler, Chad Henne, Felix Jones, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Mike Williams TB, Randy Moss/Kenny Britt, Steve Smith CAR (ugh...very easy schedule remaining), Marques Colston/Lance Moore, Owen Daniels, Todd Heap, Jermaine Gresham

Sell High (or just sell): Drew Brees, Lesean McCoy, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Jahvid Best, Fred Jackson, Benjarvis Green-Ellis, Brandon Jackson, Malcom Floyd, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Johnny Knox, Braylon Edwards/Santonio Holmes, Mike Williams SEA, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace/Hines Ward, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Kellen Winslow, Visante Shaincoe, Marcedes Lewis

Buy High (top players with easy remaining schedules): Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden, Hakeem Nicks, Deshaun Jackson, Jacob Tamme, Zach Miller OAK

Thoughts

~~I may have been wrong about Arian Foster. In week 9, he absolutely torched what was one of the most formidable run defenses in the Chargers. he ran 27 times for 127 yards and 2 TDs, and he also caught 4 passes for 70 yards. He still has to face the Jets, the Titans twice, and the Ravens, who are all strong against the run, but after he man-handled the Chargers, I wouldn't be so worried about those matchups.

~~Here is a trend to take note of...the Lions score a lot of points and have a lot of fantasy relevant players like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford/Shaun Hill, Brandon Pettegrew, Jahvid Best, and the Lions defense. That's a new feeling for everyone. Calvin will always be a stud, Best will have a hard time finding the bench, Pettigrew has been consistently good, Hill should continue where Stafford left off, and the Lions defense makes opportunistic plays and applies heavy pressure on opposing QBs.

~~Staying with the Lions and trends, Kevin Smith is back, fully healthy, and splitting carries with Jahvid Best.

~~Exactly when did the Raiders decide to be good again on both sides of the ball?

~~Time for James Starks to see the field within the next couple of weeks. He should start to open some eyes just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Stash him on your bench, especially if you need RB help into the playoffs.

Bye Week

2010-11-06T03:33:00.001-04:00

I am currently on my bye week. Since I am doing this blog just for fun, I have taken a week off for some extra free time and to take care of other business. I will post a special "double edition" following this weekend, and make some predictions regarding the NFL playoffs and Superbowl. We are at the halfway point in the NFL season, and I typically like to make Superbowl predictions and playoff speculations at this time.

However, I will leave you with one thought...

~~It's time to start thinking outside the box this season. There are very few must-start-no-matter-the-matchup players in the league. In fact, there seems to be even less compared to previous seasons. They include Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees (even though I predict second half disappointment from him), Kyle Orton (doesn't feel right saying that), Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster (even with his tough schedule looming), Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd (doesn't feel right saying that either), Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, and Vernon Davis. More than ever, don't be afraid to play matchups if one of your regular starters not mentioned above has a tough matchup, and you have a solid replacement option with a very favorable matchup.

Check back early next week. I will attempt (as usual) to post my blog earlier than what I have been each week.

Analyze This ~ Week 7

2010-10-29T05:58:00.002-04:00

Apparently, my "weekly analyses" haven't been so much about analyzing each of the previous weeks as they have been a collage of prognosticating future outcomes, observing trends, and yes, the rare post-week analysis. My style in these blogs are more free than anything else. I try to write what is on my mind and only conform to my own standards. I figure that you will get your highlights and list of stats from Sportscenter, Gameday Final, and your league homepages or stats list. What I try to do is point out trends, potential trends, make predictions, give advice, etc. I basically freestyle. I just thought it is kind of ironic that my weekly analyses rarely analyze the previous week specifically. I guess it is more of a chronological organization of sorts for my weekly blogs during the season.

Most of my predictions tend to have stats, history, schedules, or certain team situations that support my assertions. However, some of them tend to be more instinct. I have learned over the years of playing fantasy football to trust my instincts or "gut feelings." Some people have them, some don't. I'd like to think I have been "blessed" with fairly decent fantasy football instincts (and a good splash of luck...never a bad thing), which is part of the reason why I decided to start blogging. If I feel I have good insight about certain things in the fantasy football world, I want to share them with everybody, who is not in any of my leagues. Fortunately, I have many friends with whom I play fantasy football with and talk smack too, so naturally I want to share much of my personal life and hobbies with them. That means my blog, along with my advice and strategies are laid out for all my competition to see and potentially use against me. That is simply part of sacrifice of blogging fantasy football strategies. My only desire with my blog is that I can truly help those who are not in any of my leagues win a Championship.

I want to take a moment to elaborate on some of the bust predictions I made last week. First of all, those players I listed I considered busts or eventual busts according to their preseason expectations. Maurice Jones-Drew is one in a very small handful of RBs getting a workhorse load, averaging over 20 touches (21.7) per game. Given the multitude of RB committees in the NFL, the few remaining workhorses are workhorses for a reason...they can keep healthy, handle a heavy load, and are playmakers extraordinaire. Therefore, after six weeks (now seven) I would certainly expect Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice to at least be in the top 10 of RBs. Anything less, and they are busts, especially since all those RBs were top 5 fantasy picks. MJD made my bust list (and not my "potential to turn it around" mentions) primarily because of his average performances against the Bills and Eagles, two terrible run defenses.

Speaking of running against the Bills, I think Ray Rice has to be considered for the bust list. I didn't include him last week because I was expecting him to rip the Bills a new...hole. He decided to be even more average against them than MJD was. Granted the Bills put the Ravens in a hole and Flacco had to pass a lot more, but Rice still didn't rip off any big runs. As of right now, I won't call Rice a first-round bust yet, primarily because he has a much better passing game to help him out, unlike MJD. It just doesn't seem right that two consensus top 5 fantasy picks are looking like first-round busts so far.

I will quickly explain why the players I quickly mentioned to not be busts will turn things around for you.

Brett Favre ~ takes a while to build a rapport with a new WR (Randy Moss), but he will soon.

Deangelo Williams ~ he is still averaging 4.1 yards per carry behind a poor offensive line, and I expect Matt Moore to perform much better than Jimmy Clausen (not too hard to do) and keep defenses honest.

Beanie Wells ~ is still recovering from preseason arthroscopic surgery on his knee and hasn't really had a chance to prove himself while fully healthy.

Ryan Mathews ~ he has been dealing with injuries and is recovering well. He has one of the best passing games to support him and one of the easiest RB schedules remaining.

Ronnie Brown ~ I had every intention of listing him as an obvious bust, but I just couldn't get over the fact that before he played the formidable Steelers this last weekend he was averaging 4.5 yards per carry. That was against four very stout run defenses (Vikings, Jets, Patriots, Packers) out of five games. He is practically impossible to trade away now, so stash him away for week 15 against the Bills and week 16 against the Lions, if you are lucky enough to make the playoffs. His schedule before those weeks is still pretty rough.

Steve Smith CAR ~ his talent is undeniable, but he can never seem to get a pro-bowl caliber QB throwing the ball to him. Matt Moore has a pretty solid rapport with him, far greater than what Jimmy Clausen had. He also has some pretty favorable matchups coming up.

Randy Moss ~ will soon get in sync with the greatest gunslinger of all time.

Heath Miller ~ Big Ben is back.

Owen Daniels ~ is finally appearing to be fully healthy after recovering from his knee surgery from his torn ACL last November and overcoming a strained hamstring from a few weeks back.

Halfway There

We are halfway through the fantasy season and now it is time to prepare for the final stretch before the fantasy playoffs. By now, it should be apparent who the best teams are, and therefore most likely to make the playoffs. Likewise, the bottom feeders are sinking and aren't thinking about playoffs. All the teams in the middle are essentially on the bubble and need to be serious about their preparations for the stretch run. These are the three groups of fantasy teams who I want to address, and I will discuss the strategies they should employ.

7-0, 6-1...

Your riding high, kicking ass, and are feeling pretty damn invincible right now. You have likely beat one or two owners with loaded teams, or you could be one of those incredibly lucky guys who have the least points scored against for the season. Whatever the case, seven or eight wins are usually good enough for a berth in a 6-team playoffs. You need to start to prepare for the playoffs. Furthermore, you need to make sure your team is strong enough to make a run at the best regular season record (good for cash in most money leagues) and possibly a first round bye in the playoffs. Here are what the top teams need to do...

~~Handcuff your stud RBs via trades or free agency. Nothing hurts worse than having your stud get injured and you have no backup plan.
~~If you have a lot of depth at any position (especially RB or WR) try to "consolidate" multiple players into a stud player to maximize your starting lineup.
~~Start to pay attention to player schedules in the playoff weeks 14, 15, and 16. Trade for high quality players who have easy matchups during those weeks, but who can also be regular starters in your lineup for the rest of the regular season. Good players with easy playoff schedules include Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Eli Manning, Josh Freeman, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Felix Jones/Marion Barber, Beanie Wells, Brandon Marshall, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Miles Austin/Dez Bryant, Johnny Knox, Mike Williams TB, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Todd Heap.
~~Work at trading your sell high guys. Champions are typically people who will work to improve their team even when destroying the competition. Pay attention to remaining schedules and team situations to determine if you should sell certain players while their value is still high. Being content can destroy your promising season.

5-2, 4-3, 3-4...

Your team probably still has some loose ends to tie up. Maybe you are weak at one position, just above average at all positions, are dealing with injuries, or maybe the "schedule gods" are playing games with you. Whatever the case, your team still needs a bit of help to give you that boost down the stretch, but you really don't have to change your strategies just yet as long as you are still vigilant on the waiver wire, still offering crafty trades, and starting the right players. Here are some pointers for the middle teams...

~~Whatever you do, do not resort to desperate measures. Just relax and do not sell your studs unless you get a really good deal in return.
~~Buy low, sell high.
~~Pay attention to the rest of the season schedules of your players, but don't worry about the playoff matchups yet. Good players with easy schedules over the next five or six weeks include Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Mathews, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks/Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith CAR, Reggie Wayne/Austin Collie/Pierre Garcon, Greg Jennings, Visanthe Shiancoe, Heath Miller, and Tony Moeaki.
~~Make trades to strengthen any weakness in your starting lineup, especially if you have a lot of depth at another position.
~~Like the top teams, it wouldn't hurt if you also tried to consolidate your depth into a stud or at least a very good starter.
~~If you don't have good depth, keep scouring the waiver wire for hidden gems and backups to injury prone players.
~~Hold on to your high round draft picks that look like busts. Some of them can still turn it around.

2-5, 1-6, 0-7...

"What a waste of time, what a waste of money!" That could be what you are thinking, but you are not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention just yet. You more than likely drafted or traded for multiple busted players or players who have been injured. You could also be facing high scoring teams every week, and are just simply getting jerked around by the "schedule gods." Whatever the case, you've got some serious work to do. Cellar dwellers should consider this advice...

~~It may be time for desperate measures. Try anything that you think could help you get some wins.
~~Don't give up! That is a wimp's way of dealing with your debacle of a team.
~~Injuries typically cannot be predicted and can bring the strongest teams to their knees. It happens.
~~If you are the 0-7 team and feel lost, please continue to fully participate in the league activities. Pick up players off the waiver wire, set your lineups, and field trade offers. Nothing is worse than a good team getting an easy win or getting a nice waiver wire gem because you are pouting. Don't screw the rest of the league over because you had a bad year.
~~If you own a stud, now would be the time to divest him to try to strengthen other positions. If you own Chris Johnson and not much more, sell him for a RB2 and a WR2 and maybe another player you can plug into your starting lineup.
~~You have very high priority on the waiver wire. If a nice gem suddenly pops up, get him...obviously.
~~You likely have some players you could drop so stash sleepers and hope they start producing in the next couple of weeks, or players ahead of them get injured. Some guys worth owning that you will find in your free agency pool include James Starks, LeGarrette Blount, Tashard Choice, Jason Snelling, Kevin Smith, Leon Washington, Kenneth Darby, Javon Ringer, Brandon LaFell, James Jones, Deon Butler, Josh Morgan, Demaryius Thomas, Anthony Gonzalez, Legedu Naanee, John Carlson, and Shawn Nelson.

Thoughts

~~The Falcons pass defense is no longer a major threat.

~~Brett Favre's career is pretty much over. Too many aches and pains, too many turnovers, on-field decisions becoming more poor, etc. At this rate, the Vikings may not welcome him back next year so willingly.

~~Kenny Britt can no longer be benched by any owner. He just absolutely torched what was the third best defense in limiting fantasy production to WRs after being benched for the first quarter for taking part in a bar brawl. That's right...7 receptions for 225 yards and 3 TDs...in three quarters! That's his fifth straight game with at least 1 TD. You know Chris Johnson has to love a valid deep threat to help keep defenses honest.

~~Don't bother picking up Lee Evans if he is available in your leagues.

~~I want to see the Redskins/Bears game on NFL Replay. You can't help but smile at the clownish plays and turnovers, unless you are a Redskins or Bears fan.

Analyze This ~ Week 6

2010-10-22T04:50:00.003-04:00

I was just watching the Monday Night Football pregame on ESPN. First of all, how is it possible that anybody can take Matt Millen seriously? Why do I have to continue to see his empty head on TV talking football? Why does Stuart Scott keep asking Millen to evaluate certain players? We already know how "great" Millen's player evaluations are. His draft record with the Lions proves that. For example, Scott just asked Millen which current NFL RB would he build a team around. Millen responded quickly and emphatically "Adrian Peterson." Let me take a moment to calm down a bit.................still pissed...................

.........With all due respect to Calvin Johnson, Millen had the chance to draft Peterson in 2007. Instead of trading down to any one of a multitude of teams willing to trade up to get Calvin and draft Peterson, he put his miserable track record of drafting first round WRs to the test. Sure hindsight is 20/20 and Calvin is almost everything he was scouted to be, but I would much rather have a stud RB over a stud WR to build around, all day, every day. The moron even said it, even though in 2007 he passed on trading down and drafting AD. So...maybe the Lions did need a WR to compliment Roy Williams. I guess Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Anthony Gonzalez, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Jacoby Jones, Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, or Steve Breaston couldn't fit that bill. We could have had AD (or even stud LT Joe Thomas) and one of those aforementioned WRs in the 2007 Draft. Millen has no business talking player evaluations and scouting. For that matter, his face would look better with a tread print of one of my Timberland boots on it.

...Yes, it still stings to think of the joke called the "Millen Era."

On the Path to Bust City

As you have already deducted by the sub-title of this section, these are the busts. Some players have already busted (according to their preseason expectations) and likely won't improve the rest of the year. Others are looking like they could be fine, but they will eventually let down their owners. I have listed the stats of the busts through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players who have not yet busted are soon to be flops or have injuries cost them extensive amounts of time. Players not listed (I think they will turn it around) include Brett Favre, DeAngelo Willams, Beanie Wells, Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown, Steve Smith CAR, Randy Moss, Heath Miller, and Owen Daniels.

Already arrived...

Carson Palmer ~ completed 155 of 194 passes (59.3%), 1287 yards, 7 TDs, 6 ints

Matt Cassell ~ completed 78 of 135 passes (57.8%), 851 yards, 7 TDs, 3 ints

Maurice Jones-Drew ~ 119 runs for 463 yards (3.9 ypc), 1 TD; 12 catches for 66 yards (5.5 ypc), 1 TD

Clinton Portis (four games) ~ 49 runs for 195 yards (4.0 ypc), 2 TDs; 4 catches for 41 yards (10.2 ypc); out until at least week 10

Knowshon Moreno (three games) ~ 51 runs for 159 yards (3.1 ypc), 2 TDs; 5 catches for 71 yards (14.2 ypc)

Shonn Greene ~ I called him both overrated and a breakout candidate. I thought he would breakout just not as a stud (what most expected) considering Ladanian Tomlinson's presence. What I nor anyone else saw coming was Greene becoming a backup to Tomlinson, rather than splitting touches.

Larry Fitzgerald (officially missing Kurt Warner) ~ 26 catches for 301 yards (11.6 ypc), 2 TDs

Steve Smith NYG (only in no-PPR formats) ~ 34 catches for 370 yards (10.9 ypc), 1 TD

Chad Ochocinco ~ 26 catches for 316 yards (12.2 ypc), 1 TD

Kellen Winslow ~ 24 catches for 257 yards (10.7 ypc), 0 TDs

Brent Celek ~ 19 catches for 221 yards (11.6 ypc), 2 TDs

Arriving soon...

Drew Brees ~ It's certainly not easy to call Brees an eventual bust, and it is too easy to be wary of the Madden Cover Curse. I will simply list his remaining schedule. His easiest opponent is this week's match against the Browns. The rest of his schedule include games against the Steelers, Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals, Rams, Ravens, and Falcons. All those teams are very good to superior at limiting fantasy production of opposing QBs, either with great coverage, great pass-rush, or in the case of the Panthers, because of a terrible offense and run defense. Plus, the whole Madden cover thing causes me to believe an injury is likely. He is too good to flop, but he will certainly underachieve the rest of the year.

Jay Cutler ~ He hasn't been exactly impressive yet, but as long as he is taking seven step drop backs behind a god awful offensive line, his stats will suffer. Guess what? Mike Martz will continue to call seven step drop plays, and the offensive line will not improve.

Cedric Benson ~ The entire Bengals offense is struggling to live up to expectations. Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson are at the fore front of those struggles. Benson is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry with only 3 total TDs. So far, Benson has been very transparent. In his five games, he has played well against the weaker run defenses (Panthers, Buccaneers) and has struggled against the stronger units (Patroits, Ravens, Browns). His remaining schedule includes games against the Falcons, Steelers twice, Jets, Browns (yes, they have a strong run defense), and Chargers, with the Steelers, Browns, and Chargers during the playoff weeks 14-16.

Arian Foster ~ Again, a tough schedule is the culprit here. Foster has been the most wonderful surprise of the season, for those who drafted him what seemed to be too early. Unfortunately, it's time for him to get beat up as he faces the Chargers, Jets, Titans twice, Ravens, and Broncos. The only two easy run defenses remaining on his schedule are the Colts and Eagles and both teams have the capability to run up the score and force the Texans to throw. Just to confirm the idea of Foster slumping soon, the Texans defense is horrible which could indirectly cause Foster to sit on the sidelines more while Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson light it up.

Braylon Edwards ~ Santonio Holmes is back and Dustin Keller is still Mark Sanchez's favorite target.

Thoughts

~~James Starks needs to be added to your team. He should be activated from the PUP list shortly. The Packers run game is pathetic at best without Ryan Grant, and Starks could be the main reason why the Packers didn't try to trade for Marshawn Lynch. Starks was drafted in the sixth round this last NFL Draft, but was considered to be second to third round material before an injured shoulder held him out his entire senior season at Buffalo. He is a big RB who is elusive and fast. Best case scenario could have him as an every-down RB for the rest of the season. Take a look at his highlight reel here James Starks Highlights at Buffalo and add him if possible, especially if you need RB help.

~~Don't be too enamoured with Deion Branch's stat line (9 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD). Sure he is reunited with Tom Brady and those two have apparently not lost a step, but Brady spreads the ball around (more so without Randy Moss) and Branch is not a big play WR. Branch will have to have more than 6 catches to ever go over 100 yards, and he is not always going to be targeted that frequently. However, he should continue to be a solid flex player going forward, when the matchup is good.

~~Sticking with the Patriots, Danny Woodhead is like a Kevin Faulk Jr. Woodhead is apparently the second clone on the team to a regular starter--Julian Edelman being a Wes Welker clone.

~~As a Lions fan, I really hate the Seahawks version of Mike Williams. What a worthless pile of guano. He basically pouted when he was drafted by the Lions.

~~I mentioned previously how the fantasy football world has been turned upside down. What I meant to say was the entire NFL has been flipped onto it's head. The Rams just beat the Chargers convincingly, the Cowboys are 1-4, the 49ers are 1-5, the Falcons, Rams, Seahawks, and Chiefs have strong defenses, and there are only three 1-loss teams remaining and no undefeated teams. Therefore, it should no longer be a surprise to see players like Arian Foster, Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, and Austin Collie on top of the fantasy world. I'm sure a couple more players will emerge from nowhere and dominate before the season ends (looking at James Starks here). This is truly...one of those years.

~~Colt McCoy actually didn't look too bad in his debut against Blitzburgh.

~~If Antonio Gates misses any games, the entire Chargers offense is in trouble. And now Malcom Floyd may miss a game also...ouch!

~~Sure the Lions defense is a pretty good fantasy unit, but in reality, they really need to learn how to stuff the run.

~~Along with Mike Williams from Seattle, Ryan Torain is another player that is pissing me off. In my "USFL" Dynasty League, I picked up Ryan Torain at the deadline of last season on a simple whim. At that time, Jim Zorn was on his way out as the Redskins head coach and all the rumors pointed to Mike Shanahan taking over (he wasn't hired yet). The Redskins running game was unimpressive and Clinton Portis had his usual problems with injuries. Torain was bouncing around the league, trying out with different teams but not latching on with any of them. I figured Torain was a Shannahan draft pick and a zone-blocking scheme runner, so he should easily be able to join the Skins. Sure enough, during this offseason the Skins signed him, but he didn't impress as much as I had hoped. He eventually found his way to the practice squad, while Larry Johnson and Keiland Williams backed up Portis. After a couple of weeks into the season, I figured his value was minimal enough to drop him for another player (David Gettis). Sure enough, within a day or two of dropping him, Johnson gets cut and Torain gets promoted to the team. He immediately proceeds to get more carries than the supposed second string RB, Keiland Williams during their week 3 contest against the Rams. Just to rub salt in my wound, Portis injures his groin in predictable fashion the very next week, is out six weeks and Torain is now the starter. Did I mention I really need RB help in that league?

~~Your killing me MJD! It pains me to call you a bust but when defenses have absolutely no respect for the Jaguars passing game, you get mauled out there with eight man fronts.

~~So are you Ray Rice, but I know you are about to tear apart the Bills.

Analyze This ~ Week 5

2010-10-15T15:32:00.003-04:00

During my last "double edition" analysis, I completely forgot to write my thoughts about the Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle and how it effects the values of both Justin Forsett and Leon Washington. I specifically want to take a moment to vent about how Leon has yet to receive a fair chance to prove himself in the NFL. Let me take that back...he has proven himself on multiple occasions and has still never received a fair chance to prove that he can take on a bigger offensive role.

First, let me express my thoughts on Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. The perceived implications of this trade by some FF owners is that Lynch will immediately be inserted into a primary role, and potentially an every-down role. Think again. If Pete Carroll's history as a head football coach has proven anything, it's that he loves utilizing a RB committee. He did it with the New England Patriots, after he and the Patriots front office let Curtis Martin go to the Jets via free agency following Carroll's first season as their head coach (1997), and he didn't play RB favorites at USC either during his entire tenure there. Even when the eventual Heisman award winner, Reggie Bush, was shredding opponents, LenDale White was still shouldering a large load and quietly setting USC's all-time rushing TD record. Therefore, Justin Forsett and occasionally Leon Washington will still be involved in the offense, even though Lynch should be the starter and the primary running-down RB. Lynch could have some very good games against average defenses, but I would still expect inconsistency and unpredictability from him, especially considering the touches will be shared. I would not expect him to get over 20 touches in any given game. Basically, if you were astute enough to pick him up when he was receiving more touches than Fred Jackson or C.J. Spiller in Buffalo, you should immediately try to trade him away to an owner who believes Lynch will be an every-down RB, and potential stud. Even though he will still share the touches, he will certainly improve greatly with his new start. If you need RB help, then by all means keep him.

Now on to Leon Washington. It aggravates me that a RB, who is a consummate professional--hard working, follows orders, always looking to improve--has ridiculous speed and quickness, has incredible ball skills, always healthy (excluding the recent broken leg resulting from a freak on-field accident), and is most closely compared to Brian Westbrook (in his prime), cannot be given the chance to start or simply be given a larger role. With the Jets, Leon played second fiddle to a true workhorse RB in Thomas Jones. Ever since his obviously excellent skill set became apparent in his first two years with the Jets, I closely monitored his situation with the team to look for any opportunity for his role to increase. With Thomas Jones firmly entrenched as the workhorse for the Jets, Leon wouldn't get a fair opportunity unless Jones got injured. When the Jets traded him to Seattle, who were at the time relying on the undersized Justin Forsett and busted Julius Jones to shoulder the load, it seemed like a perfect opportunity for Leon to breakout. Granted, Leon missed most of training camp due to recovering from his broken leg, but being the workout warrior that he is, his game shape was not an issue once the regular season began. I wasn't expecting Leon to suddenly be a featured RB, especially knowing Pete Carroll's history with RB committees, but I fully expected Carroll to be smart enough to allow Leon to get at least 10-12 touches each game, with performance incentives causing those touches to increase. Now, without ever receiving a vote of confidence from his coaches during his entire NFL career, Leon is known more for his kick returning skills. I just wish for once Leon would put his refreshing humility aside and demand more time on the field with the offense or tell the coaches off. I guess that is kind of a moot point now.

On the Path to Sleeper Stardom

These players were pre-season sleepers or waiver wire pickups, that have overachieved tremendously. They pretty much came out of nowhere to dominate the competition during the early stages of the season. I will also include those who have yet to put together multiple big games, but seem primed to breakout. I have listed the stats of the sleeper stars through week 5, and provided a quick explanation of why the players still sleeping are soon to be stars.

Already arrived...

Kyle Orton ~ completed 141 of 213 passes (66.2%), 1733 yards, 8 TDs, 3 ints
Michael Vick (in two full and two half games) ~ completed 59 of 96 passes (61.5%), 799 yards, 6 TDs, 0 ints; 26 runs for 187 yards (7.2 ypc), 1 TD
Arian Foster ~ 96 runs for 562 yards (5.9 ypc), 4 TDs; 13 catches for 154 yards (11.8 ypc), 1 TD
Jahvid Best ~ 68 runs for 241 yards (3.5 ypc), 4 TDs; 25 catches for 254 yards (10.2 ypc), 1 TD
Peyton Hillis ~ 76 runs for 350 yards (4.6 ypc), 4 TDs; 20 catches for 143 yards (7.2 ypc), 1 TD
Brandon Lloyd ~ 30 catches for 589 yards (19.6 ypc), 3 TDs
Austin Collie ~ 37 catches for 446 yards (12.1 ypc), 5 TDs
Malcom Floyd ~ 22 catches for 498 yards (22.6 ypc), 3 TDs
Dustin Keller ~ 21 catches for 268 yards (12.8 ypc), 5 TDs
Zach Miller OAK ~ 28 catches for 340 yards (12.1 ypc), 3 TDs

Arriving soon...

Matthew Stafford ~ injured his shoulder in week 1, will start as soon as week 8, should expect to be better than Shaun Hill
Felix Jones ~ getting more touches, cake-walk schedule against run defenses the rest of the season
Marshawn Lynch ~ starting RB for the Seahawks, better offensive line than the Bills
Johnny Knox ~ top receiving option for Jay Cutler, big-play threat, potent passing system under Mike Martz
Mike Wallace ~ Big Ben is back baby, easy schedule against pass defenses outside of the Ravens, Dolphins, and Saints

Thoughts

~~I've mentioned it before and I'll mention it again...sell Arian Foster now! Maybe you could wait until after he plays the Colts again in week 8, but no reason to chance it. He has a stud's price-tag and you could probably work out a deal to get Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson by selling Foster. If the fact that his two huge games came against poor run defenses (Colts, Raiders) doesn't convince you that his value has plateaued, then chew on this...he has games coming up against the Chiefs (this weekend), Chargers, Jets, Titans twice, Ravens, and Broncos, all very, very stout run defenses.

~~I had more thoughts, forgot them, on to this next week.

Analyze This ~ Week 3 and Week 4

2010-10-08T15:29:00.007-04:00

~~Welcome to a special double addition of my weekly analyses. My third daughter was born on the 28th of September--I previously mentioned her inevitable arrival--so I have not been able to promptly post an analysis for week 3. Instead, I am combining weeks 3 and 4 and pretending it is a double edition.~~

This is one of those years, isn't it? After four weeks (painful weeks for many of us who had "very good" drafts) the fantasy world has been turned upside down. I have always preached about not overreacting to the first two weeks of the NFL season because of the heightened amount of fluky outcomes and fluky stat lines, but when some of those outcomes and stat lines continue through four weeks, they usually become trends. Many of those trends will continue throughout the entire season, while some will fizzle half-way through the season. This is the season where the lucky get a lot more lucky and at least half of your strategies and scouting reports get thrown out the window. I hate these years because those who don't prepare for their drafts and half-ass their way through the season have a greater chance of success. It just goes to show that the only certain things in fantasy football are Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and the Steelers defense being at or close to the top of their stat categories and Santana Moss being the poster-child of inconsistency. Here are some of the major fantasy-relevant surprises happening in the NFL...

Jason Babin represents the current state of the fantasy world

~~Kyle Orton is a top 3 QB with no WR1 or receiving TE on the Broncos roster, which leads me to this...

~~...Brandon Lloyd is a top 3 WR...that's right, Brandon Lloyd! I have passed on picking him up in every league because he is a backup has-been WR who has never topped 50 receptions during his forgettable seven year career. He is on pace to do that in week 8 this season and he already has three 100 yard games out of four.

~~Arian Foster is the best fantasy RB....by a mile.

~~Shonn Greene has not only shared carries with LaDanian Tomlinson, he has taken a back seat entirely to the rejuvenated future Hall of Famer.

~~Austin Collie is the current top WR and the best overall player in PPR formats.

~~Where has Ray Rice gone?

~~The entire Cowboys running game has been non-existent. However, I still like Felix Jones to break out soon.

~~Randy Moss just got traded to the Vikings. Upgrade Brett Favre and
Percy Harvin, downgrade Tom Brady.

~~Marques Colston has struggled, but that is due to Drew Brees spreading the ball around as expected.

~~Staying with the Saints, I am shocked that Robert Meachem has not had at least one solid game yet. He was one of the most popular sleepers this year mainly because of his strong performances over the last eight games of the 2009 season.

~~Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, the Patriots' two rookie TEs, have been utilized frequently.

~~The Lions defense is a strong unit to own.

Gimmie Five

Determining trade value, who you should try to acquire, and who you should try to sell is very similar to playing the stock market. One of the most reliable and reused tricks is to try to acquire players who have a low current value but their potential is is still sky high. Likewise, you should also sell players who are drastically overachieving and their value has plateaued. These are the simple stock concepts of "buy low, sell high."

I will give you five players who are drastically underachieving, starting to concern their owners, and are perfect "buy low" candidates. I expect these players to recover very soon and start to perform closer to preseason expectations.

Felix Jones
Primary reasons to buy: big play ability, Cowboys' commitment to better offensive balance, Marion Barber not impressing, very easy schedule against running defenses for the second half of the season

Calvin Johnson
Primary reasons to buy: unlimited potential, Matthew Stafford's imminent return

Pierre Garcon
Primary reasons to buy: big play capability, current lowest value this season, better suited to wide-out than Austin Collie

Ronnie Brown
Primary reasons to buy: stud potential, Chad Henne's passing game will loosen up defenses, Dolphins will further commit to running.

Jason Witten
Primary reasons to buy: Tony Romo's second favorite passing target, will get a lot of receptions

Honorable mentions ~ Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, Greg Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Mike Sims-Walker

Take Five

I will also point out five players who have turned heads over the last couple of weeks, but should see a decrease in numbers and should be "sold high." Some of these players I have listed not necessarily because they have had recent huge performances, but because their name still holds a lot of weight in fantasy circles. There will be an owner willing to pay the price to get a big name who I believe will continue to struggle all year.

Austin Collie
Primary reasons to sell: Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai

Kyle Orton
Primary reasons to sell: current top fantasy QB, average WRs, you likely own a QB1 you drafted first

Larry Fitzgerald
Primary reasons to sell: Cardinals QBs situations, still a huge name--will get a high return in a trade

Brent Celek
Primary reasons to sell: Michael Vick doesn't use TEs much, Kevin Kolb will be the QB for a few games which will temporarily raise Celek's value

Darren McFadden
Primary reason to sell: injury prone

Honorable Mentions ~ Brandon Lloyd, LeSean McCoy, Peyton Hillis, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower, Mark Sanchez

Scout Team

These players should probably be in the free agent market of your leagues. Keep an eye on them as they should make a fantasy impact at some point during this season...

Tony Moeaki
Bruce Gradkowski
BenJarvis Green-Ellis
John Carlson
Danny Amendola
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kevin Smith
Chris Ivory
LeGarrette Blount
Shawn Nelson

Just a Few Thoughts

~~The Kansas City Chiefs are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL...REALLY?!?!

~~For those owners who have had a rough start to the season, be patient still. There are still a few more things in the fantasy world that will realign themselves.

~~Is anyone else surprised that Philip Rivers is actually doing better without his top WR Vincent Jackson and starting LT Marcus McNeil?

Analyze This ~ Week 2

2010-09-24T03:49:00.002-04:00

Two weeks down, fourteen more glorious fantasy weeks to go. Now that two weeks are recorded in the books, NFL teams will start to settle down, find their mojo, and players will start to become more transparent as far as what kind of fantasy performances they will give your team and how well they can perform against tough defenses.

I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore gain a total of over 150 yards, or how rare it is to see Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin have a 3 FF point output in any game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Jahvid Best ~ 9 receptions (14 targets)
Mike Sims-Walker ~ 105 receiving yards
Kyle Orton ~ 307 passing yards
Chris Cooley ~ double digit FF points (12)
Matt Ryan ~ 3 TDs/0 ints
Malcom Floyd ~ 31.7 yards per catch average
Aaron Hernandez ~ 6 targets (6 receptions)
Mike Williams TB ~ double digit FF points (11)
Deon Butler ~ 5 receptions (8 targets)
Brandon Jackson ~ 2.9 yards per rush average
Matt Cassel ~ under 10 FF points (3)
Donald Driver ~ 38 receiving yards
Louis Murphy ~ 10 targets (6 receptions)

...And Much Less of This

LeSean McCoy ~ 30 FF points
Michael Vick ~ 108.0 passer rating
Kevin Walter ~ 11 targets (11 receptions)
Jay Cutler ~ 0 ints
Brandon Pettigrew ~ 108 receiving yards
Steve Smith NYG ~ 35 receiving yards
Chad Henne ~ 15 pass attempts (9 completions)
Donald Brown ~ 16 rushes
Hakeem Nicks ~ 2 receptions (5 targets)
Felix Jones ~ 9 total touches (7 runs/2 catches)
Dez Bryant ~ 2 targets (2 receptions)
Jeremy Maclin ~ 26 receiving yards

Thoughts

~The Cardinals offense without Kurt Warner (and Anquan Boldin) is an absolute mess. Look for Max Hall and John Skelton to battle for the rights to be the starting QB for 2011, maybe as soon as the second half of this season.

~Andy Reid is disgraceful. As he already said in a press conference, he acknowledges that assessment and is okay with it. Saying Kevin Kolb is your starting QB and will immediately resume that role once he is back from his concussion, then doing a 180 the very next day and saying Michael Vick is now your starter is very unprofessional and unwarranted. I understand he feels he is putting his team in the best position to win, but he had to have lost the trust of a lot of his players by saying one thing, then doing another in regards to the most important position for the Eagles.

~Gotta love the "Lord of No Rings" comment by Vincent Jackson's agent, referring to Chargers GM A.J. Smith and originated by Archie Manning.

~I am now more confident about the Lions winning six games this year. They put on a nice come-from-behind show with Shaun Hill at the helm. Which reminds me...Calvin Johnson has not had a big game yet. Imagine what the Lions can do once Johnson blows up and Jahvid Best continues doing what he has been doing.

~So much for Arian Foster being the focal point of the Texans offense...obviously. Didn't I mention something about trading him high after week 1?

~Speaking of trades, this week's buy low candidates include Pierre Garcon, Felix Jones, and Joe Flacco.

~By the time I post my next blog, I will be a new dad...for the third time.

Just a Thought ~ Vincent Jackson's Destination

2010-09-20T00:13:00.004-04:00

After observing the sputtering Vikings passing offense today with a hobbled Percy Harvin and a lack of Sidney Rice, is there any doubt in anyone's mind that they will trade for Vincent Jackson? Granted Brett Favre completed 22 of 36 passes (with 3 interceptions), but they were mostly short and intermediate passes. Visanthe Shaincoe was his leading receiver for the second consecutive week in both catches and yards, and that is not a good sign for any team, even if it's Philip Rivers to Antonio Gates. Rice is expected to return to the field somewhere around week 8 to week 10, and there has already been some inside information saying his recovery is not proceeding as quickly as it was expected to.

It is very obvious the Vikings are in a "win now" mode. Their entire Super Bowl hopes rely on Favre being their QB (they haven't bothered to draft a quality QB prospect in the last few years), and Brad Childress has been on the hot seat since before he originally convinced Favre to join the Packers' division rival. Jackson has been asking for an extremely high salary--too high for the Chargers and too high for any team to vehemently pursue him--and the Vikings may suddenly be desperate enough to pony up the cash after a dismal 0-2 start. They need a big deep threat WR.

As a Jackson owner in my money keeper league (drafted him in the seventh round and have the option to keep him next year), I have heard all the rumors of the Vikings, Seahawks, Brown, Redskins, and Rams being in the V-Jax sweepstakes and have been strongly pulling for the WR1-less Redskins to pay for his services. From a fantasy perspective, joining the Vikings right now would return Jackson to WR1 status with the ultimate gun-slinger as his QB, but the inevitable return of Rice would cloud that status. Joining the Redskins would assure Jackson owners of owning a top fantasy WR into the fantasy playoffs, since the Redskins don't currently have a true WR1 for Donovan McNabb.

Given the recent Vikings loss, helped along by the paltry passing offense, it seems inevitable that Jackson will be a Minnesota Viking before Wednesday afternoon, which is the deadline for his suspension to be reduced to four games instead of six if traded. If that happens, it is scary to think of what kind of noise the Vikings will make in the NFL once Rice is fully healthy.

Analyze This ~ Week 1

2010-09-16T03:03:00.004-04:00

I am really furious that NFL Redzone is now a service I have to pay for. The cable network I pay for made progress before last season when arbitration caused the NFL Network to be included in the regular lineup. Last season that included the NFL Redzone channel, owned and operated by NFL Network. This year, I find out the hard way that I no longer have NFL Redzone in my regular lineup. Instead of enjoying every minute of football I can possibly cram into my head from the first kickoff, while paying close attention to my revamped Lions team, I have to spend about twenty minutes on the phone with my ridiculous cable network to work out the financial details of how I can get the NFL Redzone without paying an extra $8 per month. Needless to say, I will not go an NFL season without my NFL Redzone channel. Have I mentioned that I love what they do?

Typically, the first one or two weeks of the NFL season involves a lot of fluky plays, performances, and outcomes. This first week was certainly no different. Players are jacked up on adrenaline, certain plays still have kinks to work out, timing between QBs and receivers require fine tuning, and generally, teams need to find their identity. I will take note of certain performances and stats you are likely to see again, and those not likely to occur again. I will try to avoid stating the obvious, such as the likely hood of seeing Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning score over 20 fantasy football (FF) points, or how rare it is to see Frank Gore, Michael Turner, and Ray Rice have a 2.2 or less yards per carry average in any given game.

You Will See Much More of This...

Anquan Boldin ~ 110 receiving yards
Jay Cutler ~ over 300 passing yards (372 total)
Eddie Royal ~ 8 catches (10 targets)
Roddy White ~ 12+ targets (23 total!!!)
Visanthe Shaincoe ~ TDs (1 total)
Chris Cooley ~ 6 catches (9 targets)
Dez Bryant ~ 12 targets (8 catches)
Mike Wallace ~ 31.0 yards per catch average
Todd Heap ~ 6 catches (11 targets)
Matt Forte ~ 2.9 yards per run average
Knowshon Moreno ~ 60 rushing yards
Justin Forsett ~ 10 total touches (7 runs/3 catches)
Peyton Hillis & Jerome Harrison ~ 50/50 split of carries (9 each)
Reggie Bush ~ 7 touches (2 runs/5 catches)
Lee Evans ~ 3 FF points

...and Much Less of This

Arian Foster ~ 33 rushing attempts
Matt Forte ~ 151 receiving yards
Mike Vick ~ 21 FF points
Austin Collie ~ 11 catches (12 targets)
Rashard Mendenhall ~ 5.5 yards per run average
Legedu Naanee ~ 110 receiving yards
Mark Clayton ~ 10 catches (16 targets)
Marcedes Lewis ~ 2 TDs
Brandon Lloyd ~ 117 receiving yards
Matt Schaub ~ 9/17 completions, 107 yards
Pierre Garcon ~ 43 receiving yards
Jermichael Finley ~ 4 FF points
Robert Meachem ~ 33 receiving yards/0 TDs
Carson Palmer ~ 50 pass attempts
Cedric Benson ~ 43 rushing yards/2.9 yards per run average
Johnny Knox ~ 5 FF points
C.J. Spiller ~ 6 rushing yards

Thoughts

~As a Lions fan, I am thoroughly disgusted with the debacle surrounding the Calvin Johnson TD...I guess I have to call it "the TD that never was." What ever happened to the simple idea of making a catch? Since when does a simple catch involve progressions, movements outside of the actual catch, and twenty different ideas of what ball control is? Since when is there an "entire process" involved in a touchdown catch outside of when the catch is made, the ball is controlled, both feet (then leg, then hip, then the left hand, then football still possessed in right hand) are down? Why do certain things in the NFL have to be ridiculously overcomplicated for no reason? This is a pure example of the kind of luck Lions fans have suffered through over the last....well, my whole life. That would have been called a TD if it was Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne.

~OK, that was more of a rant. I understand the whole process of ball control involved in a catch, but that call was the most nitpickingist crap I have ever seen in the NFL, even more so than the "tuck rule."

~Arian Foster has exposed the perpetually average Colts run defense. Here's a clue for the rest of the Colts' opponents: the Colts will continue to bolster a smallish, fast defense geared toward defending against the pass, as long as Peyton Manning is barking out audibles in an almost poetic cadence on the offensive side. The Colts with Peyton Manning always expect to have the lead in every given game, forcing opponents to pass often. This should be no secret as their defense has been built like that for the last decade.

~Speaking of the newest breakout player, Arian Foster looked smooth and controlled while torching the Colts, and he has given a lot of promise to fantasy teams who drafted him. Therefore, I will advise you to sell him now while he holds a RB1 price. That's right, sell him. Even though he should continue to be a very solid RB2 this year, he will not have a repeat performance all year, and he more than likely will not have 33 carries again. His value is at it's peak. His stat line was more due to a brilliantly executed game plan. You could sell Foster for something like Ronnie Brown and Pierre Garcon, or you could package him with a low-end RB2 or a WR2 to try to buy Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson.

~There were a lot of low-scoring games with great defensive performances in week 1. It is much too early to determine if that could be a trend, but I wouldn't count it out.

~Be patient, Leon Washington owners. He has to earn his time since he missed most of the preseason completing his recovery from his broken leg making sure he is in football shape. Look for him to start relegating Justin Forsett by the middle of the season.

~16 targets for Mark Clayton? Looks like an Oklahoma thing between him and Sam Bradford. Clayton doesn't know the Rams playbook yet, so once those passes fall incomplete more than complete, Bradford will once again search for his more sure WRs in Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola, and Brandon Gibson.

~Laurence Maroney has finally escaped the doghouse of Bill Belicheck. However, he once again has to wait for at least one RB to get injured to see prominent field time. He certainly will be the primary RB if Knowshon Moreno gets injured or relegated.

~I hate the enormous gap between the final week 1 game and kickoff on week 2 Sunday.

~I think I may have been wrong about calling Austin Collie a bust...just a little bit wrong. I figured the more established Anthony Gonzalez would be favored in lieu of Collie. Speaking of making less certain predictions, along with predicting Collie to bust, I was also hesitant about predicting Darren McFadden to bust, and Shonn Greene, Chris Wells, and Pierre Garcon to breakout. Just throwing that out there, but I will naturally stand by my predictions.

Through the Wire

2010-09-12T14:48:00.005-04:00

I have already explained my lack of time for blogging over these last two weeks or so, and this piece will also result in dramatic abbreviation. I was hoping to be able to post this waiver wire article before the start of the season, but time has flown for me.

These players are the players who have gone mainly undrafted, and I believe they will all have some sort of fantasy impact in either small parts of the season or throughout the season. Some will step up when a player ahead of them on the depth chart gets injured, while others are simply overlooked.

Here are the players you should be adding to your scout team...

Louis Murphy ~ the top WR for Jason Campbell.

Mike Thomas ~ performed well his rookie year, and has had nothing but high praise coming into this season. He is a wonderful PPR sleeper.

Jake Delhomme ~ has regained the little bit of arm strength he lacked last season.

Jason Campbell ~ always overlooked, but ended last season with very good performances.

Leonard Weaver ~ is a Mike Bell injury away from being the regular short-yardage/goalline RB in Philadelphia.

Keiland Williams ~ has Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson ahead of him on the depth chart, which causes me to be optimistic about his chances of getting on the field during the season.

Early Doucet ~ ended last year with hot performances, and could potentially outperform Steve Breaston.

Brandon LaFell ~ he will be the second WR and second overall receiving option in Carolina.

Deon Butler ~ Deion Branch is very injury prone, and Butler will step up when Branch is out of the lineup.

Josh Morgan ~ in his third year, and is always overlooked in drafts. He is an excellent
bye week replacement when the matchup is right.

Shawn Nelson ~ suspended for the first four games of the season, but he will return as the second best receiving option in Buffalo.

Andre Brown ~ picked up by a Broncos team dealing with an immense amount of RB injuries.

Tony Scheffler ~ he is essentially the slot receiver for the Lions.

Harry Douglas ~ on IR last season, and he should immediately have better numbers than Michael Jenkins.

Brandon Gibson/Danny Amendola ~ somebody has to step up as Sam Bradford's second receiving option behind Laurent Robinson. I'm not crazy about Mark Clayton being that guy.

Mario Manningham ~ easily overlooked with last year's breakout WR (Steve Smith) and this year's potential breakout WR (Hakeem Nicks) as his teammates.

Kevin Faulk ~ never gets drafted, always contributes to the fantasy team who picks him up.

Aaron Hernandez ~ more athletic TE and better receiver than Rob Gronkowski. Both guys will be inconsistent though.

Jared Cook ~ much better receiving TE than Bo Scaife and freakishly athletic.

James Davis ~ he is a Jerome Harrison injury away from being a big stat contributor.

Lance Moore ~ busted last year because he couldn't get healthy. He is healthy this season.

Sammy Stroughter ~ very overlooked second WR for the Bucs. I'm seeing Arrelious Benn getting drafted while Stroughter isn't even considered.

Anthony Armstrong ~ huge preseason performances put him ahead of Devin Thomas on the depth chart.

Breakouts

2010-08-27T12:52:00.005-04:00

Unlike sleepers, breakout candidates are more likely to produce at a high level. For the most part, their success will not be unexpected, and many of them will be highly coveted and targeted by fantasy owners everywhere during drafts. Most of these players will develop into studs, and a few of them may become part of the small group of elite players in the NFL. These players most certainly possess the greatest upside of all the three value groups I am discussing, and they will most certainly outperform their ADPs.

Here are this year's breakouts...

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 3.01/2.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Jets starter and primary ball-carrier, Jets commitment to run, Jets fantastic offensive line, hits the hole fast and hard, enough receiving options to keep defenses honest
~Remember I had him listed as overrated? His ADP dropped a couple of slots since then, but he is still slightly overrated. He will breakout, but not as a stud RB1. The reasons for that assessment is a combination of factors. Ladanian Tomlinson will not be ignored, and will take a lot of goalline touches away from Greene. Greene also does not possess great quickness or speed, but he still does run hard and with authority behind what may be the best offensive line in the NFL. His slight upright running style could also have him considered to be an injury concern. Ultimately, he will breakout, but more like a top RB2, especially since I predict his TD total will be low.

Chris Wells
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.01/4.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Ken Whisenhunt recommitted to the run, primary and featured rusher (Tim Hightower will be passing down RB), very quick and strong, needs to take pressure off of Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson

Jermichael Finley
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/5.02
Primary Reasons for Breakout: 2009 hot...very hot season-ending performances, great hands, great athleticism, Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver fading
~Predicting Finley to breakout is stating the obvious. His second half of last season was far and away the best second half of any TE in the NFL. With Donald Driver fading away, and Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball down the field often, the young guys, specifically Finley, will step up to be on the receiving end. His great hands and athleticism will cause him to be a regular target of Rodgers for many years.

Hakeem Nicks
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.04/5.05
Primary Reasons for Breakout: best hands, deep threat, great speed and quickness, gets open easily, playmaker, maturing very quickly

Felix Jones
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.01/5.11
Primary Reasons for Breakout: total package--speed, quickness, agility, runs hard, great hands, can pass block--Jerry Jones wants to be more committed to him, Marion Barber struggled last year

Pierre Garcon
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.02/6.02
Primary Reasons for Breakout: starting WR opposite of Reggie Wayne, quick and fast, playmaker, will flourish even with competition from Anthony Gonzalez
~For those of you concerned that Garcon can't breakout because Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark will continue to put up studly numbers, remember how long both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were putting up elite numbers in the same seasons? For that matter, remember when Brandon Stokley broke out as the third WR for Peyton Manning? The Colts supposedly recommitted to the run, but who calls the plays on the field?

Kevin Kolb
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.02/6.03
Primary Reasons for Breakout: huge numbers in only two NFL starts last season, excellent receiving options, solid running game to relieve pressure, Andy Reid still like to pass a lot

Joe Flacco
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.07/7.04
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Anquan Boldin, enormous and accurate arm, elite potential, third year in the league, Ray Rice, new TE weapons
~I talk about Flacco being in the third year of his NFL career, not because it is some magical number, but because the QB position has the biggest learning curve when transitioning from college to the NFL. You will rarely see QBs with stud potential have great success in the first two years of their career, and sometimes it can take four or five years. Flacco will not only be a stud, but he has elite potential. Add Anquan Boldin, two new TE weapons, and have a certain recent breakout RB behind him, and breaking out is imminent

Matt Ryan
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.02/8.08
Primary Reasons for Breakout: Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, third year of experience, Michael Turner
~He will forever be compared to Joe Flacco throughout his entire career because they are from the same draft class and both had unusually great rookie campaigns. Ryan also possesses elite potential and has two great weapons in the passing game with Roddy White and the ageless Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner should have a great season, so defenses will be forced to be honest.

Leon Washington
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.06/12.06
Primary Reasons for Breakout: fully recovered from injury, better than Justin Forsett, playmaker extraordinaire, determination, nice offensive line
~Leon has made a full recovery from the nasty leg break he suffered last season. He has been one of my favorite sleeper picks over the last few years, but he was never in the right situation to be a potential breakout. Thomas Jones was considered to be the primary, grinding RB for the Jets from 2007 until the conclusion of last season, so Leon had to carve himself out a niche as the third-down RB and punt returner. Leon has always been a workout warrior and has kept himself in the best possible shape. His size and skill-set are directly comparable to Brian Westbrook, and if you compare highlights of the two players, you can't tell the difference. Everybody is predicting Justin Forsett to have the most touches of all the RBs, but that is because Leon has been recovering from his leg break this whole time. Leon could not practice in training camp, so of course there would not have been any news on him. Forsett's size worries me greatly, and he is also more of a third-down RB like Leon. Between the two players, I contend Leon can handle a bigger load and run harder. Once he starts making huge plays on the field, why would Pete Carroll want to take him out other than to get him a little rest? I'm not predicting Leon to be a workhorse RB, but I definitely see him averaging 15-18 touches per game.

Wake Up, Sleepy Head!

2010-08-26T15:04:00.003-04:00

The next value group includes what is obviously the most popular category of value players--the sleepers. Every single fantasy owner, expert, fantasy site, and their moms have a list or an idea of who their favorite sleepers are. In general terms, a sleeper is a player who will have unexpected success and has the potential to drastically overachieve. More specifically, sleepers are usually found in the mid-rounds and later in your drafts, and they are typically players who are young, unproven, and/or lacking any form of consistent success in the NFL. Furthermore, this group may include players who unexpectedly breakout, players who greatly outperform their draft pick, and no-name players who become solid fantasy starters. However, this group may also include players who stay at or below the value of their draft pick. The trick is to find those sleepers who have the most favorable situations and motivation. Unfortunately, a few of these sleeper options have become so popular that their ADP has improved over the last month or so, effectively lowering their value in drafts.

Here are the players who I like to be successful sleeper options. I have also listed what their potential best fantasy output and potential role on your fantasy team could be...

Jahvid Best
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.03/4.05
Primary Reasons to Like: unbelievable quickness and speed, preferred over Kevin Smith, playmaker extraordinaire, Lions starter and possible featured RB
Potential: top ten RB, definite regular starter, occasional huge games

Arian Foster
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.08/5.10
Primary Reasons to Like: Ben Tate is on IR, Slaton is still struggling, fits into zone-blocking scheme, will get majority of RB touches, 2009 hot season-ending performance
Potential: solid RB2, regular starter, consistent output
~Ben Tate broke his ankle during the first game of the preseason, causing the Texans to place him on injured reserve. Tate was being groomed to be the starter and potential featured RB in the Texans zone-blocking scheme. Foster, who is also an adept runner in a zone-blocking scheme does not possess the speed and quickness that Tate had, but he is quickly proving he is ready to take on a bigger role. He already turned
a few heads last season by getting over 240 total yards and 3 TDs in the final two games of the season. He will continue to prove throughout the preseason that he is capable of similar performances.

Malcom Floyd
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.09/6.08
Primary Reasons to Like: absence of Vincent Jackson = he is top WR for Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates drawing attention of safeties, deep-threat
Potential: decent WR2, increase in TDs, big games but may be inconsistent, trade bait
~The situation in San Diego is interesting. Vincent Jackson will miss at least three games with his NFL mandated suspension. He could miss six games with his roster exempt status adding three games to his suspension, holdout until week 11 (he needs to be on a roster for six games to accrue credit for a season), or get traded to another team. Nobody knows how this shakes out, but Floyd benefits from this situation. The problem is if Jackson reports back to the Chargers, you will likely see Floyd's stats drop. Until then, Floyd, who is the same size and big deep threat Jackson is, will take over the top WR duties. The situation that remains to be seen is if Floyd will take pressure off of Gates like Jackson did, or if Gates will get extra attention from safeties leaving Floyd one on one more often. I think Gates will get a little more safety attention, but Floyd's deep threat ability will eventually cause defenses to be honest. Floyd will do well in Jackson's absence, but he is not the playmaker that Jackson is. He is not stud capable. However, he will still give your fantasy team very good numbers while Jackson is out.

Jeremy Maclin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.02/7.01
Primary Reasons to Like: a year of experience, playmaker, DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek drawing coverage away from him
Potential: WR2, regular fantasy starter, big games

Johnny Knox
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.06/7.04
Primary Reasons to Like: incredibly fast, fits Mike Martz's system, big play capability, huge steps as a rookie, no true top WR for the Bears yet...could be him
Potential: top 15 WR, big numbers but may be inconsistent, may cause you to bench an established fantasy starter for him
~All offseason, the talk about which Bears WR will step up centered around Devin Aromashodu. Johnny Knox will be the top WR for Jay Cutler.

Mike Wallace
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.07/7.06
Primary Reasons to Like: adios Santonio Holmes, deep-threat, slowly fading Hines Ward, 2009 hot season-ending performances
Potential: WR2, big games but inconsistent

Michael Bush
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.10/7.07
Primary Reasons to Like: at least half of Raiders RB touches, Darren McFadden failing, runs hard, goalline touches
Potential: low-end RB2, consistent, starter when matchups are good

Cadillac Williams
ADP (10-team/12-team): 9.08/8.01
Primary Reasons to Like: stayed healthy for entire 2009 season, 2009 hot season-ending performances, unquestioned starter and likely featured RB in Tampa Bay
Potential: high-end RB2, regular starter but needing good insurance

Robert Meachem
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.03/8.09
Primary Reasons to Like: due to breakout, runs all the routes now, starter opposite of Marques Colston, 2009 hot season-ending performances, receives TDs
Potential: high-end WR2, regular starter, consistent
~The return of a healthy Lance Moore could possibly cut into Meachem's production, but he proved in the second half of last season that he finally learned all the routes and is continuing to quickly develop. He's not just a deep threat anymore. He is also a new redzone threat for Drew Brees. Moore may be returning, but Meachem will not fade away as a result.

Eddie Royal
ADP (10-team/12-team): 11.02/9.10
Primary Reasons to Like: few experienced WR options in Denver, smart player, compared favorably to Wes Welker in Josh McDaniels system
Potential: regular WR3/flex starter, consistent output
~While the rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop, Royal and Jabar Gaffney benefit greatly. They will more than likely be the two best WRs for the Broncos. I like Royal as a sleeper because he could have a potential breakout year, while Gaffney will step up his production, but not in breakout fashion.

Montario Hardesty
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.01/9.12
Primary Reasons to Like: likely starter in Cleveland, can be every-down RB, quickness and size, goalline carries, very good Browns offensive line
Potential: RB2, consistent output, occasional big game

Zach Miller OAK
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.01/9.11
Primary Reasons to Like: Jason Campbell, red-zone opportunities, best receiver in Oakland
Potential: top seven TE, regular starter, consistent output with occasional multiple TD games

Mike Williams TB
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.07/11.03
Primary Reasons to Like: developing really fast, likely top Buccaneers WR, limited WRs in Tampa Bay
Potential: WR3/flex starter when matchups are good, inconsistent but with big game potential

Chad Henne
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.09/11.07
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, Brandon Marshall, breakout potential
Potential: top ten QB, start over QBs drafted as starters, may render your first drafted QB as trade bait

Alex Smith
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.08/12.03
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, excellent game manager, great receiving options, solid offensive line
Potential: best QB2/injury replacement, consistent output but no big games

Dustin Keller
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.09/13.04
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, security blanket for Mark Sanchez, excellent receiving skills
Potential: low-end TE1, high TD production

Devin Thomas
ADP (10-team/12-team): 14.02/13.10
Primary Reasons to Like: third year WR, playmaking potential, very few Redskins WR options
Potential: flex starter, inconsistent with occasional big games

Laurent Robinson/Donnie Avery
ADP (10-team/12-team): LR after round 15/14.01 DA 14.02/13.07
Primary Reasons to Like: top two receiving options in St Louis, both have playmaking potential, third year for Avery, either WR could be top WR (I like the injury prone Robinson better)
Potential: flex starters, trade deal sweeteners

Jason Campbell
ADP (10-team/12-team): 14.09/14.03
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, way way way way better than JaMarcus Russell (not saying much), excellent game manager
Potential: top QB2/injury replacement, consistent output

Matt Moore
ADP (10-team/12-team): after round 15/14.02
Primary Reasons to Like: 2009 hot season-ending performances, great rapport with Steve Smith, good TD-int ratio
Potential: top QB2/injury replacement

Underrated

2010-08-20T12:54:00.002-04:00

I will now focus on the players who have good draft value. Underrated, sleeper, and breakout players are all excellent draft targets. Unfortunately, many of them will be drafted to other teams, so pick your favorites out of these groups and target them one to two rounds earlier than their ADP. The differences between the three groups are distinct, but can be easily confused.

The first of the value groups are the underrated players. These players are generally not given the respect they deserve. This group can include players returning from a major injury, players who can increase production from last season (but not in breakout fashion), players in a new system more complimentary to their skills, and overlooked players flying under the radar. These players won't necessarily emerge this season (or have already emerged), and likewise, they will not necessarily have unexpected success and drastically overachieve like a successful sleeper would. Simply put, the uncertainly surrounding these players cause them to fall further in drafts then they should.

These are the players who are underrated and should perform a bit better than their ADP suggests...

Joseph Addai
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.08/4.12
Primary Causes of Concern: 2008 bust, pass-heavy offense, Donald Brown
Reasons for Good Value: receiving threat, red-zone threat
~Did you know that Addai was actually a top ten RB in standard no-PPR scoring last season, recovering from his busted 2008 season? He was even better in PPR systems. Many people have not taken notice of that, primarily because Addai was well below 1000 rushing yards (828) on the year. However, he did rush for 10 TDs, caught 3 more, and also racked up 51 receptions for 336 yards. The only RBs who had more total TDs than Addai were Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Thomas Jones, and Willis McGahee. Addai will continue to score the TDs this season, especially since the Colts coaching staff is expressing their renewed commitment to the running game. Last year, Addai shed his bust label from 2008, and was heavily involved in the pass-heavy Colts offense. Donald Brown may end up being the future top RB in Indy, but Addai is still the top dog, even though he is in the last year of his current contract.

Ronnie Brown
ADP (10-team/12-team): 6.01/5.01
Primary Causes of Concern: injury concern, recovery concern, Ricky Williams
Reasons for Good Value: RB1 potential, recovering well
~Brown's fantasy value has been marred by three major injuries, and one was just a broken hand which caused him to only miss three weeks in 2006. Tearing his ACL in 2007 was the worst of his injuries and put him on the path of injury concern by fantasy owners. Currently, he has recovered well from his most recent injury, the Lisfranc fracture he suffered in his foot last November. Lisfranc fractures are not known for causing long-term effects, even though they occur in a difficult part of the foot. Athletes who suffer a Lisfranc fracture in their foot will typically be fully recovered within nine months from the injury. Since Brown spent the entire offseason rehabbing from the injury, he may get off to a slow start from simply being a little bit rusty, but I would expect him to be back to full speed within a few games. When he is at full strength, he is a very good playmaker, versatile out of the Wildcat formation, and has RB1 potential. Ricky Williams should still be involved in the offense, but Brown will reassume the primary role.

Dwayne Bowe
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.10/5.02
Primary Causes of Concern: 2009 bust, character issues
Reasons for Good Value: Charlie Weis, renewed commitment
~Bowe had a rocky season last year. The entire offense struggled, he got suspended for using performance enhancing substances, and never made any sort of impact upon his return. This offseason, Bowe has seemed to rededicate himself by dropping weight and showing up well conditioned during the OTAs and into the preseason. The Chiefs have also hired the former Patriots offensive guru, Charlie Weis. Weis has a penchant for emphasizing the passing game, and has been working closely with Matt Cassell to develop him further. If Cassell improves and the offense becomes more well-designed and pass-oriented, that could further boost Bowe's value.

Brent Celek
ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.03/6.03
Primary Cause of Concern: uncertainty with Kevin Kolb
Reason for Good Value: more rapport with Kolb than with Donovan McNabb
~Celek broke out last season with Donovan McNabb at the helm. After proving himself as an integral part of the Eagles pass-happy offense and a regular starter in fantasy lineups, he is firmly entrenched as a TE1. One more year as a top five TE will prove that he is truly a fantasy stud. McNabb got traded to the Redskins during the offseason, and Kevin Kolb takes over with a lot of perceived uncertainty surrounding him. However, Kolb should actually improve Celek's value. In the two games last season that Kolb started in place of the injured McNabb, Celek received 8 passes for 104 yards each game with a TD in one. He had better numbers in only one out of the other fourteen games when he was receiving passes from McNabb. After being the fourth best TE in standard no-PPR fantasy leagues last season, he has a chance to be even better this season. Even though there are five TEs with a better ADP than Celek (I'm sure you can name them without even thinking about it), it surprises me that he is drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds. According to the ADP data, he was drafted as low as the ninth round! That's awesome value for a top five TE, soon to be stud TE.

Brett Favre
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.08/7.08
Primary Cause of Concern: to retire...
Reason for Good Value: ...or not to retire
~He's back. Yippie ki yay. His ADP should now improve, and rightfully so. He was a top five QB in most standard scoring systems last season, in what was widely considered his best season as an NFL QB, and he shouldn't be very far from that this year.

Carson Palmer
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.06/9.05
Primary Causes of Concern: 2009 slump, running game emphasis
Reason for Good Value: added receiving options
~Laveranues Coles was signed to take the place of the departed T.J. Houshmandzadeh last season. The difference between those two players were like night and day for Palmer. Coles was a miserable bust, and just couldn't build a rapport with Palmer or make plays. Andre Caldwell picked up the slack here and there, but was never a big difference maker, nor was he consistent. Before Chris Henry was put on IR in November with a broken arm, he wasn't making any major contributions to the passing offense either. Chad Ochocinco was pretty much the only Bengals receiver to step his game up, and he saw a lot of defensive pressure in the process. With the additions of Terrell Owens, Antonio Bryant, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham, Palmer has every chance in the world to recover to his 2005 form. We should certainly see a better Palmer from last year.

Visanthe Shaincoe
ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.10/8.11
Primary Cause of Concern: not a popular TE name
Reason for Good Value: Brett Favre's endzone target
~Brett Favre is notorious for targeting his TEs in the endzone. He proved that last year with Shaincoe's 10 redzone TDs out of 16 rezone targets and 12 receptions. Shaincoe won't rack up big yardage, but you can rely on his TDs with Favre around.

Chris Cooley
ADP (10-team/12-team): 11.09/10.02
Primary Causes of Concern: Fred Davis, returning from injury
Reasons for Good Value: Mike Shannahan, no degradation of skills or usage
~When Cooley broke his ankle midway through last season, Fred Davis emerged as a very reliable receiving target and a good redzone threat. Now that Cooley is back, he is suddenly an afterthought for many fantasy owners, mainly because of the discovery of Davis. First of all, Cooley's broken ankle is of no concern, as he has fully recovered. Second, he is a solid blocker, Davis is not. Cooley will be the TE on the field for pretty much every single-TE formation. Mike Shannahan has always emphasized the use of TEs as a receiver in his system, and he is likely to utilize two-TE sets in order to maximize both of his TE talents. Think of Cooley as the primary receiving TE and Davis as more of a slot WR. Cooley will reestablish himself as one of the most consistent and reliable TEs, like he was before the injury.

Tim Hightower
ADP (10-team/12-team): 12.04/10.06
Primary Cause of Concern: Beanie Wells
Reasons for Good Value: receptions, goalline duties
~Beanie Wells is due to breakout this season. Hightower is considered Wells' backup, but will still have a prominent role in the offense, specifically as the third-down and short-yardage specialist. In other words, he will get a lot of receptions and steal TDs from Wells. Last season, Hightower was targeted 80 times and came up with 63 receptions. I don't expect that to change with Matt Leinart taking over, because the uncertain QB will be looking for a safety valve often. His best safety valve will be Hightower.

Matthew Stafford
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.02/11.08
Primary Cause of Concern: Lions...enough said
Reasons for Good Value: new offensive weapons, a year of experience
As a fan of the Lions, I am naturally skeptical of any QB they acquire, via draft, free agency, or trade, to be their future. The Lions have been an absolute wasteland of overrated and busted QBs ever since Bobby Layne. However, Stafford shows more promise than any Lions QB I have personally seen in my lifetime. It also helps to have Calvin Johnson, a big athletic freak of nature who can catch any pass, including the errant ones, and can turn 5 yard slants into long TD plays. With one year of experience under his belt and the additions of Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best, he won't be any worse than a top backup QB for your fantasy team this year. He has looked good so far in camp, and should very well outperform his current ADP.

Mohammad Massaquoi
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.06/12.01
Primary Causes of Concern: his QB, bad team
Reasons for Good Value: Browns best WR, high percentage of team targets
~I did not like Jake Delhomme in Carolina during the couple of seasons I owned Steve Smith in a couple of my leagues. That may be the sentiments of every Smith owner everywhere, but Delhomme was still the man responsible for making sure Smith was a stud. Massaquoi should now be the top receiver for Delhomme in Cleveland. I am in no way comparing Massaquoi to Smith, but last season as a rookie he was targeted 95 times, which was 23 percent of the team targets all season. Not too bad for a rookie, and not too bad with Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson as his QBs. With a year under his belt, he should continue that trend into this year under Delhomme. For that matter, Delhomme should be revitalized with his new start, after his dismal performance last season in Carolina, and should play well enough to help Massaquoi improve on his rookie year.

Jabar Gaffney
ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.07/12.01
Primary Causes of Concern: the rookie WRs, never being a primary WR
Reason for Good Value: potential top receiving option
~Josh McDaniels continued to dismantle the Broncos offense during the offseason. Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler got shipped out of town leaving less receiving options and no true WR1 on the team. McDaniels tried hard to recover from his mistakes by drafting Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in order to fill the void at WR. So who benefits from these sudden and immature roster moves, dumping one of the NFL's best WRs and a very good pass-catching TE? Gaffney does. During the final two regular season games last year, he caught a combined 21 passes for 282 yards and 2 TDs. That's a statement. While the rookies develop, Gaffney should emerge as the top WR, if not second to Eddie Royal. Thomas is being groomed to be the number one WR in Denver, but he has struggled with injuries and should take a while to get involved in the offense. I would've listed Gaffney as a sleeper, but McDaniels will undoubtedly be trying his best to get both Thomas and Decker involved. They should both get more action midway through the season, once their feet are wet.

Davone Bess
ADP (10-team/12-team): after round 15/13.12
Primary Causes of Concern: low yardage output, low TD output
Reasons for Good Value: high amount of targets/receptions, Brandon Marshall
~Last season, Bess was targeted 113 times and caught 76 of those passes. That is more targets than stud WRs Vincent Jackson (107) and Marques Colston (106) had. However, Bess primarily ran short underneath routes, and it showed with his pedestrian 758 yards and 10.0 yards per catch (YPC) average. This season, Brandon Marshall is the primary receiving threat who will stretch the field and draw the attention of at least one safety. Bess will still play a possession role, probably from the slot, and I expect his targets to stay above 100. With Marshall on the field drawing attention, Bess' YPC will increase along with his total yards, and he may be able to break for a few more TDs. He is a decent sleeper option for PPR leagues, but simply remains underrated in no-PPR formats.

1000 Hits!

2010-08-16T12:48:00.003-04:00

THANK YOU TO ALL MY READERS WHO READ AND ENJOY MY BLOG!

According to my unique hit counter at the bottom of the blog, there have been over 1000 unique hits. Looking through my CQ counter, which is a free service that lists the details of what and who pulls up my blog address, only 66 of those hits are search engines. That is just under 1000 people who have directly and purposely accessed my blog, many through Footballdiehards.com (a highly recommended site for those of you who have not been there yet). Thank you for your support and continued access to the information I divulge. I will be publishing my Underrated, Sleeper, and Breakout players shortly. Stay tuned...

Overrated

2010-08-13T13:53:00.005-04:00

When a player is overrated in fantasy football, he is not necessarily a bust. Overrated in the most general fantasy football terms means a player's ADP is higher than it should be by at least one round. Overrated players generally have a lot of hype surrounding them, or are big, well-established names in fantasy football who have detrimental circumstances effecting their value. They will be drafted higher than they should be.

You don't have to avoid these players, but don't draft them unless they fall at least a round further than their ADP (a couple of rounds further for the mid-rounders). There will be a few better options available at these player's ADPs...

Larry Fitzgerald
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: Adios Kurt Warner, adios QB stability
~I have already listed Matt Leinart in the bust category, so that prediction would naturally reciprocate throughout the passing offense. Fitz has been the biggest WR name over the last few years, and with good reason. He is a playmaker, has the best hands you will ever see, and does all the little things correct. However, calling him overrated is absolutely not a knock on his skills and abilities. He will be relying on Leinart to keep him in the stud category, and that is shaky at best. He will still perform like a low WR1/high WR2 for your team, but he is still being drafted like a top 5 stud WR. His stats will dip a bit for at least this year.

Miles Austin
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.05/2.04
Primary Cause: Dez Bryant
~Austin emerged last season as Tony Romo's go-to guy. In fact, outside of Austin and Jason Witten, Romo didn't really have anyone else to throw to consistently. Roy Williams was a bum all year, and Patrick Crayton disappeared after his inspired week 1 performance. The Cowboys addressed their need at WR in the NFL Draft, not by drafting a complimentary counterpart to Austin, but by drafting a future stud WR who will threaten Austin's new found status as Romo's top target. Dez Bryant has looked like and carried himself as every bit of a future stud WR in the NFL so far. He was even given Michael Irvin's number 88 by Jerry Jones. Austin should still be Romo's top WR this year, but the quickly developing Bryant will be taking away some of those receptions. Also, the presence of Bryant has seemed to inspire Williams to step his game up and prove he still belongs in Dallas. That is just another reason to choose someone like Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, or Greg Jennings over Austin.

Shonn Greene
ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.08/2.05
Primary Causes: committee situation, LT the TD vulture
~Greene can be an example of a player who is overrated and also a breakout candidate. Being a breakout candidate doesn't necessarily mean a player will establish himself as a top 5 player at his position. Breaking out can simply mean becoming a regular starter in anyone's fantasy lineup, and establishing themselves as desired commodities in fantasy football. Greene should get the lion's share of touches between himself, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Joe McKnight, but the size of that "lion's share" is what I question. It goes without saying that the passing down situations and RB receptions will go to LT and the rookie, not Greene. That alone limits his time on the field. LT could also be a TD vulture, since he is still reliable in goalline situations, and he will probably be petitioning the coaching staff to allow him to continue running for Emmitt Smith's rushing TD record. Another small concern is Greene's running style which is slightly upright, causing him to be a potential injury concern. Ultimately, the Jets bolster one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so Greene will be successful to an extent, but not like a second round pick should be.

LeSean McCoy
ADP (10-team/12-team): 4.05/3.11
Primary Causes: happy feet, no goalline work
~McCoy was drafted as the heir apparent to Brian Westbrook in the 2009 NFL Draft. Some even tried to compare him to Westbrook, unfairly. His size and running style are similar, but that is where the similarities end. McCoy tends to dance a bit more than he should while looking for the cutback lane and a big play. That tendency can cause inconsistent outputs from game to game, and a low yards per carry average in his down games. There is also a definite plan for Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver to handle practically all short-yardage and goalline situations. Expect McCoy's TD total to be low. He is still a great talent and capable of breaking off a big play at any time, but he will not be used as much as Westbrook was and will have a difficult time finding TDs.

Steve Smith NYG
ADP (10-team/12-team): 4.07/3.12
Primary Cause: Hakeem Nicks
~Remember I am referring to no-PPR, standard type formats. In PPR, Smith is not overrated whatsoever and will be a hot commodity. However, his above ADP is for no-PPR systems and is too high for my taste. Hakeem Nicks is due to emerge as early as the start of this season, and should be handling more deep routes than Smith will. Smith was supposed to be the standard possession WR last year, typically getting short to intermediate routes and very few TDs, but ended up being a big playmaker. This season, I expect an improved Nicks to inadvertently reduce Smith's numbers just a bit. Smith's reception total, big-plays, and TDs should all take a small dip this season. He is still a quality WR2, but don't overpay for him.

Chad Ochocinco
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.04/4.08
Primary Cause: more passing options
~Last season, Ochocinco reemerged as a low-end WR1/top WR2, even when the Bengals moved toward a more run oriented offense with Cedric Benson. The main reason, outside of being the top WR on the team, was because almost all the other receiving options were highly unreliable. Coming into this season, the Bengals have added the ball-hog Terrell Owens and Antonio Bryant, and they have drafted Jermaine Gresham, the top TE from this years NFL draft class, and Jordan Shipley. That is plenty more options for Carson Palmer to choose from. Ochocinco should still be the top receiving option for the Bengals, but I doubt he will top 1000 receiving yards this season.

Philip Rivers
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.04/4.10
Primary Causes: lack of Vincent Jackson, rookie RB
~Losing Vincent Jackson really hurts the effectiveness of the Chargers passing offense. Jackson was Rivers' most reliable WR and best big-play receiver on the team. Without Jackson stretching the field and controlling the decisions of the safeties, Antonio Gates should see more defenders around him, causing Rivers to pass more to the likes of Malcom Floyd, Buster Davis, and Legedu Naanee. Having those WRs as your best options is a scary thought. To top that off, Rivers will have Ryan Mathews with him in the backfield quite often. Mathews is supposed to be the most well rounded RB from this year's draft class, including pass protection, but he is still a rookie and you can bet he will miss some blitz pick-ups.

Knowshon Moreno
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.09/5.01
Primary Causes: questionable vision/decision making, Broncos passing offense
~It would appear that Moreno is on his way to establishing another featured RB role in the face of the popular committee trend in the NFL. A lot of people are considering him a good draft target and have high expectations for him this season since his improved pass protection earned him a larger role. However, looking at his stats from last year, there is absolutely nothing inspiring. He never topped 100 rushing yards in any game, even while getting at least 18 carries in eight games. His yards per carry average was a paltry 3.8 after getting 247 runs. The main reason his running was par at best is because he was having a difficult time hitting the holes when they were there. Many times he seemed to just stick his nose forward when a cutback lane was available. Vision on the field is more difficult to correct since it is a more natural instinct, so I wouldn't expect his average to rise much, if at all. It certainly won't help that defenses will stack eight men in the box to stop him. A lack of Brandon Marshall should reduce Kyle Orton to what we remember from Chicago, at least until the rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker start making plays. I can't call Moreno a bust because he will still be a workhorse and have goalline opportunities, but I can think of at least five RBs with lower ADPs who I would rather have.
Edit: When I wrote this part about Moreno, his current ADP was 4.10/4.03. Since then, his tweaked hamstring apparently caused enough concern amongst fantasy mockers to cause his ADP to drop a bit. It certainly doesn't help that the Broncos brought in Justin Fargas in light of the plague of injuries amongst the Broncos RBs.

Vernon Davis
ADP (10-team/12-team): 5.10/5.03
Primary Causes: Michael Crabtree, high TD per reception ratio
~Davis was the top receiving option for the 49ers last season, almost by default. Michael Crabtree held out into the regular season, and was well behind the curve. This season, Crabtree has a full offseason of learning and practice under his belt, and should emerge as the top receiving option in San Francisco. The 49ers will still be a run-first offense, which already limits the passes going around. Also, Josh Morgan is entering his third year and should be more improved. Finally, Davis did make a ton of big plays and had 13 TDs with only 73 receptions. 13 TDs is a rare accomplishment for a TE. Of the current top TEs in the NFL, only Antonio Gates reached 13 TDs...once back in 2004. The other rare accomplishment by Davis was the lesser amount of catches (78) it took him to get those 13 TDs. Put both rarities together and you have a guarantee he won't give an encore performance this season. Of course he is still a top TE, but don't expect him to be a top 3 TE. I like the TE options available after Davis gets drafted a bit too early.

Dez Bryant
ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.04/7.03
Primary Cause: he is a rookie WR
~This ADP is a great spot to draft Bryant in a keeper league. In your standard redraft leagues, this is far too high. He is a rookie. The learning curve for rookie WRs is huge, even for talents like Bryant. Tony Romo will choose his other top options (Miles Austin and Jason Witten) before Bryant, while Bryant will be still figuring out the plays and coverages. He is a future stud, but fully expect him to have his struggles this season. He should not be drafted this high, where you are still drafting players meant to be regular starters for your fantasy team.

Your Busted!

2010-08-05T15:20:00.003-04:00

All of you should be familiar with what busts are. These are players who I predict will have a dramatic decrease in expected production, or flop altogether. Their production could plummet from factors such as bad o-lines, inconsistencies, position competition, or injuries. As the standard goes, there always tends to be at least one first-round bust every year. The first-round bust doesn't necessarily flop but simply does not perform like a first (or second, third, and fourth) round pick should.

Here are the players you should avoid in your drafts...

Rashard Mendenhall (first-round bust)
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 2.04/2.02
Primary Causes: fumbles, passing game, Jonathan Dwyer
~According to the above ADP, he is a second round draft pick on average. However, he is late first-round consideration in pretty much every draft everywhere, and he has been drafted in the first round of every mock draft I have completed so far. It was difficult to label Mendenhall as a first round bust because he finally emerged last season as the stud many thought he would be, and looked like he was going to improve this season with the Steelers renewed commitment to the power running game. A few factors will knock his status back down to earth this season: First, he had a problem with fumbles last year. That is a problem that should be easily solved, but that directly relates to another cause of his first-round bust status: Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer's game is very similar to Mendenhall's game and Dwyer fits very well into the Steelers power rushing attack. If Mendenhall starts to have a problem with fumbles again, we could see Dwyer take some carries away from him. I also expect Dwyer to be a TD vulture, possibly seeing more goalline touches than Mendenhall. Finally, the Steelers passing game has been obliterated this season. Their top WR and Superbowl XLIII MVP was traded away--because of character issues--without any planned replacement, and Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for the first six games of the season. Mendenhall will be facing stacked defensive fronts, with Byron Leftwich/Dennis Dixon posing little to no threat. Once Big Ben returns to the lineup, Mendenhall will be relying on Heath Miller, the aging Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El, along with the sophomore Mike Wallace and rookie Emmanuel Sanders to keep pressure off of him. Outside of Miller and Ward, none of the other receiving options will be consistently reliable, and Miller and Ward still won't be getting the respect of double-teams. Chances are, he could still see a lot of stacked defensive fronts even after Ben returns.

Brandon Jacobs
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.03/6.02
Primary Causes: Ahmad Bradshaw/Andre Brown, injury concerns, developing WRs
~This may seem like an easy bust prediction since Jacobs busted last year. However, he played through knee problems the entire season. His knee was bad enough that it required arthroscopic surgery once the 2009 season concluded. Many astute owners will take note of Jacobs returning with a better knee and buy into his draft value appearing good. Even though he will be more healthy this year, he will still continue to be injury prone due to his upright running style. You haven't heard the last of him having knee problems. Ahmad Bradshaw got his ankles cleaned out this offseason, and he says they feel better than they ever had. A revitalized Bradshaw, along with Andre Brown (a Derrick Ward clone) returning from an achilles tear, will take carries away from Jacobs to keep him fresh. To top all that off, the passing game is developing rapidly, led by young studs Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, and it will become more prominent. These factors increase Jacob's bust potential.

Donald Driver
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 7.10/6.09
Primary Causes: age, improved o-line
~Driver will be 35 years old during this season. His age started to show last season when he slowed down noticeably during seven of his last eight regular season games and during the barn burner against the Cardinals in the wild card round of the playoffs. Last season, Greg Jennings didn't perform up to expectations, so Driver picked up the slack for most of the season. That situation isn't as simple as Jennings having an off year. Those correlations can be partially attributed to the offensive line playing poorly last season, mainly due to injuries, and as a result Aaron Rodgers had a lot of pressure in his face all season long. Instead of being able to let Jennings' deep routes develop, Rodgers had to quickly choose the short and intermediate routes of his possession receiver, which was Driver. The Packers o-line improved when they drafted the talented rookie OT Bryan Bulaga from Iowa, and they will be fully healthy to start this season. An upgraded o-line improves protection, which indirectly renders the short and intermediate routes of Driver less necessary for pass-happy Rodgers.

Santana Moss
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 8.04/7.02
Primary Causes: inconsistent, inconsistent, inconsistent
~I have never liked Moss. I don't think I ever owned him on any of my fantasy teams, so this is not a personal vendetta. Look up the word inconsistent in the dictionary, and there is Santana Moss' mug, trying to look tough. I have never seen a player, who is always ranked fairly high by so many people, gets their hopes and expectations up early in the season, then punch them in the face and kick them while they are down. There have been many occasions where Moss seems like a stud for one or several games straight, then suddenly becomes the wrong end of a horse for at least the following few games. I could pull examples of his inconsistencies from every season of his career (except last year where he was awful in 14 of the 16 games), but instead I will give an example from his best season as a pro (2005). Moss started his 2005 season in elite fashion through the first 6 games, getting over 100 receiving yards in four of them and over 150 yards and 2 TDs in two of those games. Over the next eight games, he never topped 79 receiving yards and only scored 1 TD during that span. That was his best season as a pro and he even produced a very attractive season stat line (84 receptions, 1483 yards, 9 TDs). He has given us much of the same throughout his whole career, and now at the age of 31, why would anyone expect that to change just because Donovan McNabb is his QB?

Santonio Holmes/Braylon Edwards
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): SH 10.02, BE 10.04/SH 8.10, BE 8.09
Primary Causes: run-first team, too many receiving options
~I grouped these two teammates together with obvious good cause. The Jets acquired Holmes after multiple incidents caused him to become expendable for the Steelers. Adding Holmes allowed the Jets offense to look quite incredible with the rest of the pieces already in place. Mark Sanchez has got to be grinning from ear to ear, realizing the formidable receiving options he now has at his disposal. Fantasy owners should not be grinning about this situation. First of all, the Jets are a run-first and run-heavy team. When they take to the air, there will be many options to choose. Holmes and Edwards will be vying to be Sanchez's favorite target, but there is also Jericho Cotchery, the recently emerging Dustin Keller, and two pass-catching RBs in Ladanian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight. By my count, that is too many quality receiving options and too few balls to go around. I can almost guarantee at least one of Holmes or Edwards will bust, and they are both certainly overvalued.

Darren McFadden
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.09/9.03
Primary Causes: injury concern, tackle breaking problems, Michael Bush
~Speed certainly doesn't cure all for an NFL RB. McFadden brings a lot of speed to the table, and what we all thought was huge playmaking capabilities. After two years of injuries, inconsistencies, and disappointment, he has watched Justin Fargas become favored over him, and now Michael Bush will step up and take at least half of the RB touches in Oakland. McFadden will be seen on the field in more passing situations as a pass catcher, while Bush will take over the runs between the tackles. Not only has McFadden been hampered by nagging injuries during his short NFL career, but he has always had issues breaking tackles. If he wants to be able to regain a more featured role, the first thing he needs to work on is running through arm tackles and bouncing off of linebackers and safeties.

Clinton Portis
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 10.08/9.01
Primary Causes: age, injuries, crowded backfield
~I briefly cataloged his extensive injury history since 2006 in my Returning From Injuries blog entry from March. Basically, his body has taken a beating throughout his career, and he will enter the season just 82 touches shy of 2500 total touches for his career. Chances are good you will see his name fill up the injury reports again. Let's not forget he has company with Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, and the quickly developing Ryan Torain.

Austin Collie
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.07/11.12
Primary Cause: Anthony Gonzalez
~Collie ended last season playing a prominent role in the Colts' run to the Superbowl. Those performances would typically cause a player to be considered a sleeper for the following season, but I am changing my tune on Collie. Simply put, both he and Anthony Gonzalez are in direct competition for the starting slot WR role. I think Gonzalez will beat him out for at least this season. So you think they will simply run more 4 WR and spread sets? No chance. The Colts are famous for play-action off of run formations, like their famous stretch play. When running play-action, are defenses going to bite when there are 4 WRs on the field? Not likely. That means Gonzalez, Collie, and Pierre Garcon will be fighting for time on the field. Garcon is likely to see more time as the wide-out opposite of Reggie Wayne, which leads me to believe he could see more field time than Collie or Gonzalez. I like Gonzalez's chances to be a great come-back player this season, but he will have to bump Collie off of the field in play-action plays. Collie has a bright future. He is still a quality option this season in PPR leagues, and a fantastic prospect in dynasty formats, but for this season in no-PPR, I expect him to have a slump.

Greg Olsen
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.05/12.11
Primary Causes: Mike Martz, poor offensive line
~This bust call is kind of stating the obvious, so I will be blatant. Mike Martz, who is the Bears new offensive coordinator, utilizes TEs in his system primarily as pass-blockers, and rarely as pass-catchers. Martz's exotic 7-step drop pass plays require as much QB protection as possible for the lengthy routes to develop properly. That translates into the TE(s) blocking on most passing plays. It certainly doesn't help that the Bears o-line is horrendous, and there were no major improvements from last season. There is one potential scenario that would resuscitate Olsen's value. That scenario involves Olsen playing different positions on the field as a receiver, while Desmond Clark and Brandon Manumaleuna take on the edge blocking roles. We will know how that may play out during training camp and preseason. If the multiple-role role materializes for Olsen, he may be worth drafting at the end of your draft as a backup TE.

Matt Leinart
Current ADP (10-team/12-team): 13.08/12.12
Primary Causes: poor decision making, inconsistent
~It's really hard to determine exactly what is wrong with Leinart. During the limited playing time he was granted, he mainly struggled. However, there have been a few occasions where he actually looked like the future franchise QB of the Cardinals. However, the bad performances certainly outweighed the good ones. He also tended to be quite turnover prone and had shaky technique. Ultimately, I don't expect that to change for this season, especially since he will be down one reliable WR in Anquan Boldin. Steve Breaston should perform admirably as the second WR but not up to Boldin's standard. I also think Leinart will have too much pressure to try to live up to the standard set by Kurt Warner, which will cause him to make more bad decisions on the field.

Dynasty Rankings ~ QBs

2010-07-22T15:30:00.005-04:00

Cream of the Crop

1 (1). Drew Brees NO, 31/10
2 (4). Aaron Rodgers GB, 26-27/6
3 (2). Peyton Manning IND, 34/13

Rest of the Elite

4 (3). Tom Brady NE, 33/10
5 (9). Matt Schaub HOU, 29/7
6 (6). Matt Ryan ATL, 25/3
7 (7). Joe Flacco BAL, 25/3
8 (11). Tony Romo DAL, 30/8

On the Cusp of Elite

9 (5). Philip Rivers SD, 28-29/7
10 (10). Jay Cutler CHI, 27/5
11 (25). Kevin Kolb PHI, 26/4
12 (8). Ben Roethlisberger PIT, 28/7
13 (24). Chad Henne MIA, 25/3

Sub-Elite

14 (12). Carson Palmer CIN, 30-31/8
15 (18). Matt Stafford DET, 22/2
16 (16). Mark Sanchez NYJ, 23-24/2
17. Sam Bradford STL, 22-23/R
18 (13). Eli Manning NYG, 29/7
19 (14). Donovan McNabb WAS, 33-34/12

Pretty Solid

20 (42). Matt Moore CAR, 26/4
21 (20). Josh Freeman TB, 22/2
22 (19). Matt Cassel KC, 28/6
23 (29). Alex Smith SF, 26/6
24 (22). Brett Favre MIN, 40-41/20
25. Jimmy Clausen CAR, 22-23/R
26 (17). David Garrard JAC, 32/9
27 (21). Matt Hasselbeck SEA, 34-35/12
28 (NR). Charlie Whitehurst SEA, 28/5

Just Made the Cut

29 (26). Jason Campbell OAK, 28-29/6
30. John Skelton ARI, 22/R
31. Colt McCoy CLE, 24/R
32 (28). Matt Leinart ARI, 27/5
33 (31). Vince Young TEN, 27/5
34. Tim Tebow DEN, 23/R
35 (23). Kyle Orton DEN, 27-28/6

Best of the Rest

36 (49). Brian Brohm BUF, 24-25/3
37 (54). Dennis Dixon PIT, 25/3
38 (27). Jake Delhomme CLE, 34/10
39 (33). Trent Edwards BUF, 26-27/4
40 (36). Luke McCown JAC, 29/7
41 (37). Micheal Vick PHI, 30/8

Deep Sleepers

42. Mike Kafka PHI, 23/R
43. Dan LeFevour CHI, 23/R
44 (41). Tom Brandstater IND, 25-26/2
45 (68). Byron Leftwich PIT, 30/8
46 (43). Tavaris Jackson MIN, 27/5
47 (32). Pat White MIA, 24/2
48 (44). Nate Davis SF, 23/2
49 (NR). Bruce Gradkowski OAK, 27/5
50 (50). Josh Johnson TB, 24/3
51. Rusty Smith TEN, 23/R
52 (48). Matt Flynn GB, 25/3
53 (53). Colt Brennan WAS, 27/3
54 (78). Chase Daniel NO, 23/2
55 (55). Derek Anderson ARI, 27/6
56 (46). Stephen McGee DAL, 24-25/2
57. Tony Pike CAR, 24/R
58. Jonathan Crompton SD, 23/R
59. Levi Brown BUF, 23/R

Crap

60. Jevan Snead FA, 23/R
61. Jarrett Brown SF, 24/R
62. Sean Canfield NO, 23-24/R
63. Zac Robinson NE, 23-24/R
64 (30). Marc Bulger BAL, 33/10
65 (56). Brady Quinn DEN, 25-26/4
66 (62). Rhett Bomar NYG, 25/2
67 (38). Kerry Collins TEN, 37-38/16
68 (71). Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF, 27-28/6
69 (40). Sage Rosenfels MIN, 32/10
70 (58). Seneca Wallace CLE, 30/8
71 (59). Tyler Thigpen MIA, 26/4
72 (52). Brett Ratliff CLE, 25/3
73 (51). Keith Null STL, 24-25/2
74 (47). Troy Smith BAL, 26/4
75 (60). Jeff Garcia FA, 40/12
76 (61). Chad Pennington MIA, 34/11
77 (63). Kevin O'Connell NYJ, 25/3
78 (64). Rex Grossman WAS, 30/8
79 (65). Kellen Clemens NYJ, 27/5
80 (66). A.J. Feeley STL, 33/10
81 (45). Mike Teel CHI, 24/2
82 (67). Dan Orlovsky HOU, 27/6
83 (69). Jon Kitna DAL, 37/13
84 (39). Shaun Hill DET, 30/9
85 (70). Drew Stanton DET, 26/4
86 (72). Kyle Boller OAK, 29/8
87 (73). Billy Volek SD, 34/11
88 (74). J.T. O'Sullivan CIN, 31/9
89 (35). Chris Simms TEN, 30/8
90 (75). Josh McCown FA, 31/9
91 (76). David Carr SF, 31/9
92 (77). John David Booty HOU, 25/3
93 (80). Chris Redman ATL, 33/8
94 (82). Jim Sorgi NYG, 29/7
95 (83). Charlie Batch PIT, 35/12
96 (84). Caleb Hanie CHI, 25/3
97 (57). JaMarcus Russell FA, 25/4

Notes

~Ranking Kevin Kolb at 11? That's right, I'm drinking the Kool Aid.

~Chad Henne is on the verge of a massive breakout, with the assistance of Brandon Marshall. He also happens to be my favorite sleeper at the QB position for this season.

~I honestly don't know what to make of Sam Bradford. I have heard a lot of people crying "bust," but I think that is too harsh. I don't expect him to become a stud, but with his physical and mental attributes, it is almost impossible for him to be a bust.

~Matt Moore is highly underrated by many people, including the Panthers organization. He will have a firm grasp on the starting QB job this entire season. However, the Panthers coaching staff will probably want to work Jimmy Clausen in as their starter next season, which will result in either a messy situation or a trade of Moore.

~Alex Smith is finally fully healthy and improving his skills dramatically. He is on his way up in the rankings, especially with the offensive skill position and o-line talent the 49ers now possess.

~Yes, Brett Favre is returning, but I really think this is actually his final season.

~Be patient with John Skelton, and you should be rewarded in a few seasons. Did you notice I have him ranked above Matt Leinart?

~I think Brian Brohm is the future starter in Buffalo, but I want him to prove his worth first.

Dynasty Rankings ~ RBs

2010-07-14T12:37:00.009-04:00

Cream of the Crop

1 (1). Adrian Peterson MIN, 25/4
2 (2). Chris Johnson TEN, 24-25/3
3 (3). Maurice Jones-Drew JAC, 25/5
4 (5). Ray Rice BAL, 23/3

Rest of the Elite

5 (4). Steven Jackson STL, 27/7
6 (6). DeAngelo Williams CAR, 27/5
7 (9). Frank Gore SF, 27/6
8 (13). Rashard Mendenhall PIT, 23/3
9 (11). Jonathan Stewart CAR, 23/3
10 (8). Michael Turner ATL, 28/7

On the Cusp of Elite

11. Ryan Mathews SD, 23/R
12 (18). Chris Wells ARI, 22/2
13 (44). Jamaal Charles KC, 23-24/3
14. Jahvid Best DET, 21/R
15 (32). Shonn Greene NYJ, 25/2
16 (7). Matt Forte CHI, 24-25/3
17 (12). Cedric Benson CIN, 27-28/6
18 (26). Felix Jones DAL, 23/3

Sub-Elite

19 (25). Ryan Grant GB, 27-28/5
20. C.J. Spiller BUF, 23/R
21. Ben Tate HOU, 22/R
22 (17). Knowshon Moreno DEN, 23/2
23 (10). Ronnie Brown MIA, 28-29/6
24 (16). Pierre Thomas NO, 25-26/4
25 (28). Joseph Addai IND, 27/5
26 (19). LeSean McCoy PHI, 22/2
27. Montario Hardesty CLE, 23/R

Muy Bueno

28 (20). Darren McFadden OAK, 23/3
29 (29). Donald Brown IND, 23/2
30 (23). Brandon Jacobs NYG, 28/6
31 (15). Marion Barber DAL, 27/6
32 (NR). Justin Forsett SEA, 24-25/3
33 (30). Leon Washington SEA, 28/5
34 (14). Steve Slaton HOU, 24/3

Bueno

35 (54). Michael Bush OAK, 26/4
36 (33). Laurence Maroney NE, 25/5
37 (50). Cadillac Williams TB, 28/6
38 (36). Jerome Harrison CLE, 27/5
39 (37). Reggie Bush NO, 25/5
40 (34). Tim Hightower ARI, 24/3
41 (35). Darren Sproles SD, 27/6
42 (38). Tashard Choice DAL, 25-26/3

Average Potential

43 (40). Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, 24/4
44 (51). Fred Jackson BUF, 29/4
45 (22). Kevin Smith DET, 23-24/3
46. Jonathan Dwyer PIT, 21/R
47 (39). Clinton Portis WAS, 29/9
48 (43). Willis McGahee BAL, 28-29/8
49 (21). Marshawn Lynch BUF, 24/4
50 (47). Andre Brown NYG, 23-24/2

Just Made the Cut

51 (24). Thomas Jones KC, 32/11
52. Toby Gerhart MIN, 23/R
53 (65). Rashad Jennings JAC, 25/2
54 (60). Chester Taylor CHI, 30-31/9
55 (86). Jason Snelling ATL, 26-27/4
56 (41). Mike Bell PHI, 27/5
57 (64). Bernard Scott CIN, 26/2
58 (49). Glen Coffee SF, 23/2
59 (53). Mike Goodson CAR, 23/2
60 (31). James Davis CLE, 24/2
61 (77). Arian Foster HOU, 24/2
62. James Starks GB, 24/R
63. Joe McKnight NYJ, 22/R

Sub-Par

64 (48). LaDanian Tomlinson NYJ, 31/10
65 (57). Ricky Williams MIA, 33/10
66 (118). Ryan Torain WAS, 24/3
67 (74). Javon Ringer TEN, 23/2
68 (42). Willie Parker WAS, 29-30/7
69 (63). Maurice Morris DET, 30-31/9
70 (NR). Lynell Hamilton NO, 25/3
71. Anthony Dixon SF, 22-23/R
72. LeGarrette Blount TEN, 23-24/R

Best of the Rest

73 (66). Mewelde Moore PIT, 28/7
74. Lonyae Miller DAL, 22/R
75. Shawnbrey McNeal SD, 21-22/R
76 (61). Derrick Ward TB, 30/7
77 (27). Brian Westbrook FA, 31/9
78 (55). Correll Buckhalter DEN, 31-32/10
79 (85). Leonard Weaver PHI, 27-28/6
80 (96). Mike Hart IND, 24/3
81 (46). Julius Jones SEA, 29/7

Deep Sleepers

82. Charles Scott PHI, 22/R
83 (52). Jerious Norwood ATL, 27/5
84 (75). BenJarvis Green-Ellis NE, 25/3
85 (NR). Lex Hilliard MIA, 26/3
86. Deji Karim JAC, 23-24/R
87. Keiland Williams WAS, 24/R
88 (76). Kenneth Darby STL, 27-28/3
89 (78). LeRon McClain BAL, 25-26/4
90 (79). Gartrell Johnson NYG, 24/2
91 (81). Patrick Cobbs MIA, 27/5
92 (95). Peyton Hillis CLE, 24/3
93 (84). Kory Sheets MIA, 25/2
94 (NR). Chris Jennings CLE, 24-25/2
95 (NR). Kahlil Bell CHI, 23-24/2
96 (NR). Marcus Mason SD, 26/4
97 (NR). Tyrell Sutton CAR, 23-24/2

Dirty Diapers

98 (72). Fred Taylor NE, 34/13
99 (73). Sammy Morris NE, 33/11
100 (68). Kevin Faulk NE, 34/12
101 (70). Earnest Graham TB, 30/7
102. Brandon Minor CHI, 22/R
103. Javarris James IND, 22-23/R
104. Joique Bell BUF, 24/R
105. Alfonso Smith ARI, 23/R
106. Chris Brown DEN, 23/R
107 (67). Chris Brown FA, 29/8
108 (91). Larry Johnson WAS, 30-31/8
109 (62). Brandon Jackson GB, 24-25/4
110 (80). Danny Ware NYG, 25/4
111 (83). Aaron Brown DET, 24-25/2
112 (87). Garrett Wolfe CHI, 26/4
113 (56). Ryan Moats MIN, 27-28/6
114 (45). Justin Fargas FA, 30/8
115 (82). Brian Leonard CIN, 26/4
116 (89). P.J. Hill NO, 23/2
117 (92). Greg Jones JAC, 29/7
118 (94). Jacob Hester SD, 25/3
119 (97). Devin Moore IND, 24-25/2
120 (98). Chris Ogbonnaya STL, 24/2
121 (99). Javarris Williams KC, 24/2
122 (58). Ladell Betts FA, 31/9
123 (59). LenDale White FA, 25-26/5
124 (71). Kevin Jones FA, 28/7
125 (69). Kolby Smith DEN, 25-26/4
126 (100). Jeremiah Johnson HOU, 23/2
127 (NR). Quinton Ganther SEA, 26/5
128 (101). LaRod Stephens-Howling ARI, 23/2
129 (104). Chris Taylor NE, 26-27/5
130 (111). DeShawn Wynn FA, 26-27/4
131 (112). Chris Henry HOU, 25/4
132 (113). Chauncy Washington NYJ, 25/3
133 (114). Kregg Lumpkin GB, 26/3
134 (115). Jalen Parmele BAL, 24-25/3
135 (116). Samkon Gado FA, 27-28/6
136 (119). Antonio Pittman FA, 24-25/4
137 (120). Lorenzo Booker FA, 26/4

Notes

~Adrian Peterson is still the top RB, even in the face of the elite emergence of Chris Johnson. Once Peterson cures his fumbilitis...and he will, his stats will take a noticeable step up.

~I still have DeAngelo Williams ranked at 6 because this is a contract year for him. Not only will he be running hard as usual, but it will more than likely be his application for another team, one without another stud RB breathing over his shoulder. Jonathan Stewart is ranked in the elite category for the exact same scenario...Williams departing in 2011.

~I love what Jahvid Best brings to the table. He is very very fast, very quick, very agile, very elusive, and he is no slouch breaking tackles, even though he is smallish. Unfortunately, he can't keep himself on the field. If injuries were not a concern, he would be ranked higher than his fellow rookie Ryan Mathews.

~"Party on a Boat" Cedric Benson may have just returned. He is still ranked pretty high, but an almost certain suspension will shoot his value down.

~Felix Jones will be the starter in Dallas, and I expect him to see almost half of the RB touches...if he stays healthy. He could be an elite stud in the making...if he stays healthy. Which reminds me...with Tashard Choice and now Lonyae Miller in the fold, why is Jerry Jones not trading Marion Barber? Don't the Cowboys need a solid LT (hint, hint)?

~I love Ben Tate as an every-down RB. Obviously, Steve Slaton will be handling pass-down duties, not that Tate lacks receiving and blocking abilities. I expect Tate to be in the mix for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, along with Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best.

~Knowshon Moreno, Pierre Thomas, LeSean McCoy, and a few other RBs didn't necessarily lose any value. They simply had 4 rookies, Felix Jones, Shonn Greene, and Jamaal Charles jump ahead of them in the rankings.

~Joseph Addai is in a contract year. Donald Brown should prove he can handle the increased workload next season.

~Justin Forsett is well liked and favored by the coaching staff, took a majority of the first team reps in the OTAs, and many football "experts" expect him to not only be the starter for the season, but also take the lion's share of RB reps. Much of that could change once Leon Washington is back to form during training camp. As long as his broken leg didn't rob any speed from him, I expect him to be a bit more than simply a third-down RB. Notice how I didn't mention Julius Jones here?

~Michael Bush should finally get half of the RB carries. He and Darren McFadden will form a true RB committee, "Thunder and Lightning" (or "Smash and Dash") style.

~Adios, Clinton Portis. He is still the starting RB this season, but I expect him to be relatively ineffective, and I don't expect him to keep healthy. He has a lot of mileage on his tires. Ryan Torain could start squeaking a few carries away from him, with Coach Shannahan giving Torain a chance to prove himself against starting NFL defenders. Forget about Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker could be cut.

~I wasn't crazy about the way Ahmad Bradshaw performed last season. I expect Andre Brown to start making his presence felt.

~Jason Snelling has moved up into the realm of being one of the best backup RBs. He will see a bit more action than your regular backup in order to help keep Michael Turner healthy. Snelling should also take over the third-down role completely.

~Once drafted by the Texans and Browns, Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty have effectively dropped the values of Arian Foster and James Davis. Both Foster and Davis are still very talented, but we don't know exactly how long they will be third-string RBs.

~I would expect Lynell Hamilton to take over the short-yardage and goalline duties in New Orleans, since Mike Bell has departed. However, I wouldn't expect him to be any more than that, even if Pierre Thomas gets injured.

~Even if Brian Westbrook signs with a new team, his value will not be resurrected. After the concussions he suffered last season, being 31 years old this season, and having health problems his whole career, the smart move for him is to retire. However, he has made it apparent that he will sign with a new team, and he could still be a useful bye week/injury replacement for your dynasty team.

~Notice the trio of Patriots RBs at the top of the "Dirty Diapers" tier? Exactly how long do those "old farts" plan to be NFL RBs? By the way, this will be Laurence Maroney's last chance to prove himself worthy of being a starting RB for the Patriots. Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk are at retirement ages, and the Patriots did not address the position during the draft or this offseason. The door is wide open for Maroney to secure the starting spot.

~As usual, I didn't put much effort into sorting out the bottom tier ("Dirty Diapers"). All players in that category shouldn't own a roster spot, in my opinion, but they are all worth noting. The only major sorting of that tier I did was to put the trio of aging Patriot RBs at the top. Fred Taylor could still have a good game or two, but his age and health are really hurting him.

Dynasty Rankings ~ WRs

2010-07-02T11:58:00.014-04:00

In a League of His Own

1 (1). Andre Johnson HOU, 29/8

Cream of the Crop

2 (3). Larry Fitzgerald ARI, 27/7
3 (4). Reggie Wayne IND, 31-32/10
4 (2). Calvin Johnson DET, 24-25/4

Rest of the Elite

5 (6). Vincent Jackson SD, 27/6
6 (20). Brandon Marshall MIA, 26/5
7 (7). Roddy White ATL, 28-29/6
8 (25). Miles Austin DAL, 26/5
9 (11). DeSean Jackson PHI, 23-24/3
10 (5). Randy Moss NE, 33/13

On the Cusp of Elite

11 (10). Greg Jennings GB, 26-27/5
12 (8). Marques Colston NO, 27/5
13 (9). Anquan Boldin BAL, 29-30/8
14 (12). Hakeem Nicks NYG, 21-22/2
15 (33). Sidney Rice MIN, 24/4
16. Dez Bryant DAL, 21-22/R
17 (13). Micheal Crabtree SF, 22-23/2
18 (18). Jeremy Maclin PHI, 22/2
19 (17). Percy Harvin MIN, 22/2

Sub-Elite

20 (16). Steve Smith CAR, 31/10
21. Demaryius Thomas DEN, 22-23/R
22 (14). Dwayne Bowe KC, 25-26/4
23 (19). Wes Welker NE, 29/7
24. Arrelious Benn TB, 22/R
25. Golden Tate SEA, 22/R
26 (22). Steve Smith NYG, 25/4
27 (23). Mike Sims-Walker JAC, 25-26/4

Muy Bueno

28 (24). Kenny Britt TEN, 21-22/2
29 (15). Chad Ochocinco CIN, 32/10
30 (47). Mike Wallace PIT, 24/2
31 (89). Robert Meachem NO, 25-26/4
32 (27). Antonio Bryant CIN, 29/8
33. Mike Williams TB, 23/R
34 (38). Steve Breaston ARI, 27/4
35 (59). Pierre Garcon IND, 24/3
36 (28). Anthony Gonzalez IND, 25-26/4

Not Too Shabby

37. Brandon LaFell CAR, 23-24/R
38. Dexter McCluster KC, 22/R
39 (46). Devin Thomas WAS, 23-24/3
40 (32). Eddie Royal DEN, 24/3
41 (29). Hines Ward PIT, 34/13
42. Taylor Price NE, 22-23/R
43. Emmanuel Sanders PIT, 23/R
44. Eric Decker DEN, 23/R
45 (41). Laurent Robinson STL, 25/4
46 (50). Austin Collie IND, 24-25/2

Still Nice

47 (21). Braylon Edwards NYJ, 27/6
48 (35). Santonio Holmes NYJ, 26/5
49 (68). Chaz Schilens OAK, 24-25/3
50 (30). Lee Evans BUF, 29/7
51 (44). Donnie Avery STL, 26/3
52 (79). Davone Bess MIA, 24-25/3
53. Carlton Mitchell CLE, 22/R
54. Damian Williams TEN, 22/R
55 (NR). Devin Aromashodu CHI, 26/5
56. Marcus Easley BUF, 22-23/R
57 (72). Malcom Floyd SD, 29/7
58 (34). Mario Manningham NYG, 24/3
59. Mardy Gilyard STL, 23-24/R
60 (37). T.J. Houshmandzadeh SEA, 32-33/10
61 (70). James Jones GB, 26/4

Just Made the Cut

62 (26). Nate Burleson DET, 29/8
63. Andre Roberts ARI, 22/R
64 (92). Mike Thomas JAC, 23/2
65 (36). Donald Driver GB, 35/12
66 (52). Julian Edelman NE, 24/2
67 (66). Deon Butler SEA, 24/2
68 (43). Mohammed Massaquoi CLE, 23-24/2
69 (42). Devin Hester CHI, 27-28/5
70 (57). Johnny Knox CHI, 23-24/2
71 (107). Early Doucet ARI, 24-25/3
72 (84). Jabar Gaffney DEN, 29-30/9
73 (45). Josh Morgan SF, 25/3
74 (49). Earl Bennett CHI, 23/3
75 (39). Jerricho Cotchery NYJ, 28/7
76 (69). Louis Murphy OAK, 23/2
77 (53). Darrius Heyward-Bey OAK, 23/2
78 (64). Brian Robiske CLE, 22-23/2
79 (74). Jarrett Dillard JAC, 24-25/2
80 (48). Kevin Walter HOU, 29/8

Sub-Par

81 (54). Santana Moss WAS, 31/10
82 (67). Derrick Mason BAL, 36/14
83 (56). Andre Caldwell CIN, 25/3
84 (76). Brandon Tate NE, 22-23/2
85 (58). Jordy Nelson GB, 25/3
86 (81). Brian Hartline MIA, 23-24/2
87 (65). Juaquin Iglesias CHI, 23/2
88 (40). Bernard Berrian MIN, 29-30/7
89 (95). Jacoby Jones HOU, 26/4
90 (77). Ramses Barden NYG, 24/2
91. Armanti Edwards CAR, 22/R
92 (31). Roy Williams DAL, 28-29/7
93. Jordan Shipley CIN, 24-25/R
94 (124). Jason Avant PHI, 27/5

Best of the Rest

95 (75). Malcolm Kelly WAS, 23-24/3
96. Dezmon Briscoe CIN, 21/R
97. Antonio Brown PIT, 22/R
98 (103). Brandon Gibson STL, 23/2
99 (106). James Hardy BUF, 24-25/3
100 (96). Sammie Stroughter TB, 24/2
101 (108). Chris Chambers KC, 32/10
102 (60). Mark Clayton BAL, 28/6
103 (138). Donte Stallworth BAL, 29-30/9
104. Jeremy Williams SD, 23/R
105 (55). Terrell Owens CIN, 36-37/15
106 (80). Greg Camarillo MIA, 28/5
107 (85). Chansi Stuckey CLE, 26-27/4
108 (86). Devery Henderson NO, 28/7
109 (91). Harry Douglas ATL, 25-26/3
110 (94). Deion Branch SEA, 31/9
111 (51). Lance Moore NO, 27/6
112. Jacoby Ford OAK, 23/R
113. Scott Long SF, 23-24/R
114. Dorin Dickerson HOU, 22/R

Deep Sleepers

115 (132). Legedu Naanee SD, 26-27/4
116 (133). Craig Davis SD, 24-25/4
117 (161). Josh Reed SD, 30/9
118 (123). Troy Williamson JAC, 27/6
119 (125). Tiquan Underwood JAC, 23/2
120. Seyi Ajirotutu SD, 23/R
121. Kerry Meier ATL, 23/R
122. Blair White IND, 23/R
123 (73). Nate Washington TEN, 27/6
124 (104). Jerheme Urban KC, 29-30/7
125 (110). Josh Cribbs CLE, 27/6
126 (112). Jerome Simpson CIN, 24/3
127 (93). Patrick Turner MIA, 23/2
128 (115). Johnnie Lee Higgins OAK, 27/4
129 (116). Kenny McKinley DEN, 23/2
130 (83). Keenan Burton STL, 25-26/3
131 (118). Brooks Foster STL, 24/2
132 (119). David Anderson HOU, 27/5
133 (122). Steve Johnson BUF, 24/3

The Old and the Useless

134 (71). Ted Ginn Jr. SF, 25/4
135 (82). Justin Gage TEN, 29/8
136. Riley Cooper PHI, 23/R
137. Chris McGaha FA, 23-24/R
138. David Gettis CAR, 23/R
139. Joe Webb MIN, 23-24/R
140 (88). Michael Jenkins ATL, 28/7
141 (90). Patrick Crayton DAL, 31/7
142. David Reed BAL, 23/R
143. Donald Jones BUF, 22-23/R
144. Freddie Barnes CHI, 23-24/R
145 (97). Bobby Wade WAS, 29/8
146. Marc Mariani TEN, 23/R
147 (121). Dominique Edison TEN, 24/2
148 (169). Lavelle Hawkins TEN, 24/3
149 (126). Antwaan Randle El PIT, 31/9
150 (120). Adrian Arrington NO, 24-25/3
151 (105). Limas Sweed PIT, 25-26/3
152 (128). Brandon Stokley DEN, 34/12
153 (111). Domenick Hixon NYG, 25-26/5
154 (63). Tory Holt NE, 34/12
155 (129). Michael Clayton TB, 27-28/7
156 (131). Arnaz Battle PIT, 30/8
157 (134). Plaxico Burress FA, 33/11
158 (135). Matt Jones CIN, 27/6
159 (136). Jason Hill SF, 25/4
160 (117). Marcus Smith BAL, 25/3
161 (114). Demetrius Williams BAL, 27/5
162 (141). Derrick Williams DET, 24/2
163 (146). Dwayne Jarrett CAR, 24/4
164 (62). Laveranues Coles NYJ, 32-33/11
165 (147). Roscoe Parrish BUF, 28/6
166 (148). Quinten Lawrence KC, 25-26/2
167 (149). Jaymar Johnson MIN, 26/3
168 (150). Dudley Guice IND, 24/2
169 (101). Sam Aiken NE, 29-30/8
170 (87). David Clowney NYJ, 25/4
171 (156). Sinorice Moss NYG, 26-27/5
172 (98). Bryant Johnson DET, 29/8
173 (157). Brandon Jones SF, 27-28/6
174 (158). Hank Baskett PHI, 28/5
175 (159). Reggie Brown TB, 29/6
176 (166). Maurice Stovall TB, 25/5
177 (78). Kevin Curtis FA, 32/8
178 (137). Javon Walker FA, 31-32/9

Notes

~I figure Reggie Wayne has three more studly seasons left in him, including this season.

~Just like Tony Gonzalez in my TE rankings, I had a difficult time keeping Randy Moss in the elite category, considering he has prognosticated that he will more than likely depart the Patriots following this season. I'm not so worried about his age of 33 because he is a rare breed of a naturally athletic (and durable) freak of nature. We all know he will be huge this season.

~Anquan Boldin's production will now correlate with Joe Flacco's production as the Raven's top receiving option. That's a good thing.

~I thought about dropping Kenny Britt in the rankings a bit, but just because he was out of shape in this, his second offseason, doesn't suddenly justify dropping his dynasty value. If it becomes a recurring problem, watch out for the slide.

~Robert Meachem has finally entrenched himself as the starting WR opposite of Marques Colston. That won't change for a while.

~I like Devin Thomas to become Donovan McNabb's top receiving option this season.

~Enter the battle of Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, and Austin Collie. So far, Gonzalez has been assured of an opportunity to compete with Garcon for the WR2 spot. Both Collie and Gonzalez are good fits in the slot, but I like Gonzalez to see more catches than Collie. This is a WR battle that will last into the season.

~Another WR battle to monitor is between Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. They are not necessarily in competition with each other, but it remains to be seen who Mark Sanchez favors more. The favorite should rise in the rankings while the lesser favorite will probably stay put in the rankings. For now, I have them in the order of me being a University of Michigan fan. The loser here is Jerricho Cotchery.

~I don't know how much I want to buy into the Devin Aromashodu hype. He should do pretty well, but I see him being overrated on a lot of ranking lists. The fact is that the Bears do not possess a true WR1. They have a collection of WR3s and scrubs. I still expect them to address WR in next year's draft or through next year's free agency. However, Aromashodu is still a nice sleeper to own.

~By default, Malcom Floyd becomes Philip Rivers' top WR for at least the first three weeks of the season because of Vincent Jackson's suspension. Jackson could also holdout for the first ten weeks of the season, or even get traded. Value upgrade for Floyd.

~I expect James Jones to continue to develop and eventually take over for Donald Driver, once Driver retires or gets relegated. I like Jones better than Jordy Nelson.

~Jabar Gaffney could very well be the Broncos top WR this year, but that won't continue once Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop.

~Santana Moss will continue to be horribly inconsistent, even with Donovan McNabb as his QB.

~There is a rumor that Malcolm Kelly could be cut. Even though that is not likely, it is enough for him to lose a bit of value.

~All relevant Chargers' WRs get upgraded, in light of Vincent Jackson's falling out with the organization.

~Happy trails Terrell Owens, Tory Holt, Laveranues Coles, Kevin Curtis, and Javon Walker. TO could find a team this year (maybe the Bears???), and has a small chance to be fantasy relevant in the right system. Holt is with the Patriots, but it is clear his knees are not cooperating with him.

Dynasty Rankings ~ TEs

2010-06-20T01:52:00.006-04:00

Cream of the Crop

1 (2). Antonio Gates SD, 30/8
2 (1). Dallas Clark IND, 31/8

Rest of the Elite

3 (4). Jason Witten DAL, 28/8
4 (15). Jermichael Finley GB, 23/3
5 (3). Owen Daniels HOU, 27-28/5
6 (8). Vernon Davis SF, 26/5
7 (12). Brent Celek PHI, 25/4

On the Cusp of Elite

8 (5). Chris Cooley WAS, 28/7
9 (11). Dustin Keller NYJ, 25-26/3
10 (6). Kellen Winslow TB, 27/7
11 (17). Zach Miller OAK, 24-25/4
12 (7). Tony Gonzalez ATL, 34/14

Muy Bueno

13. Jermaine Gresham CIN, 22/R
14 (10). John Carlson SEA, 26/3
15. Jimmy Graham NO, 23-24/R
16 (13). Jared Cook TEN, 23/2
17 (27). Visanthe Shiancoe MIN, 30/8
18 (9). Greg Olsen CHI, 25/4
19 (14). Heath Miller PIT, 27-28/6
20 (19). Shawn Nelson BUF, 24-25/2

Solid

21. Ed Dickson BAL, 23/R
22. Dennis Pitta BAL, 25/R
23 (29). Fred Davis WAS, 24/3
24. Aaron Hernandez NE, 20-21/R
25 (21). Tony Scheffler DET, 27/5
26 (20). Jeremy Shockey NO, 30/9
27 (22). Martellus Bennett DAL, 23/3
28. Rob Gronkowski NE, 21/R

Just Made the Cut

29 (26). Kevin Boss NYG, 26/4
30 (23). Brandon Pettigrew DET, 25/2
31 (25). Todd Heap BAL, 30/10
32 (42). Zach Miller JAC, 25-26/2
33 (32). Bo Scaife TEN, 29/6
34 (28). Benjamin Watson CLE, 29-30/7

Sub-Par

35 (34). James Casey HOU, 25-26/2
36. Garrett Graham HOU, 24/R
37 (24). Travis Beckum NYG, 23/2
38 (52). Daniel Graham DEN, 31-32/9
39 (30). Anthony Fasano MIA, 26/5
40 (18). Marcedes Lewis JAC, 26/5
41. Fendi Onobun STL, 23-24/R
42 (33). Cornelius Ingram PHI, 25/2

Deep Sleepers

43. Tony Moeaki KC, 23/R
44. Anthony McCoy SEA, 22-23/R
45 (35). Dante Rosario CAR, 25-26/4
46 (36). Jeff King CAR, 27/5
47 (16). Chase Coffman CIN, 23-24/2
48 (38). Derek Schouman BUF, 25/4
49 (39). Daniel Fells STL, 26-27/4
50 (41). Gary Barnidge CAR, 24-25/3
51 (46). Ben Patrick ARI, 26/4
52 (NR). Evan Moore CLE, 25/3

Junk

52. Jameson Konz SEA, 24/R
53. Clay Harbor PHI, 23/R
54. Michael Hoomanawanui STL, 22/R
55 (40). Randy McMichael SD, 31/9
56 (31). Donald Lee GB, 30/8
57 (43). Chris Baker SEA, 30-31/9
58 (NR). Joel Dreessen HOU, 28/5
59 (48). Spencer Havner GB, 27/5
60 (49). Delanie Walker SF, 26/5
61 (50). Derek Fine FA, 27/3
62 (51). Jerramy Stevens TB, 30-31/9
63 (53). Davon Drew MIA, 24-25/2
64 (54). Leonard Pope KC, 27/5
65 (37). Sean Ryan WAS, 30/7
66 (55). Desmond Clark CHI, 33/12
67 (56). Martin Rucker PHI, 25/3
68 (58). Richard Quinn DEN, 24/2
69 (59). John Nalbone MIA, 24/2
70 (45). Jacob Tamme IND, 25/3
71 (61). Alex Smith CLE, 28/6
72 (44). Robert Royal CLE, 32/9
73 (64). Alge Crumpler NE, 32-33/10
74 (65). Anthony Becht ARI, 33/11
75 (66). Justin Peelle ATL, 31/9
76 (67). Brad Cottam KC, 25-26/3

Notes

~Welcome to elite status, Jermichael Finley. Make yourself comfortable, because you'll be living there for a long time.

~Vernon Davis proved himself to be elite, but don't be surprised if his numbers go down a bit from his 2009 season. He had a very high TD per touch ratio. That probably won't happen in consecutive seasons, if at all again.

~Zach Miller (the Raiders variety) will finally be able to fully emerge with Jason Campbell (a massive upgrade from JaMarcus Russell, and that's not saying much) as his QB.

~I had a hard time keeping Tony Gonzalez in elite status since he will be 34 years old this season. I figure he has at least one more studly season, probably two more, left in him.

~Mike Martz has destroyed Greg Olsen's value. However, Olsen is far too talented to drop below this current ranking, no matter how underused he is in Martz's system. God only knows how long Martz will be employed in Chicago, but if he leaves within the next few years, Olsen's value will be immediately resurrected. His dynasty owners need to sit on him and disregard low-ball offers because his talent will be much greater than his fantasy production under Martz.

~Players like Jared Cook, Tony Scheffler, Martellus Bennett, and Brandon Pettigrew didn't really lose value. I ranked certain rookies higher than them, which caused their rankings to drop a bit.

~Visanthe Shiancoe's fantasy value is directly related to Brett Favre's tenure in Minnesota....obviously.

~Shawn Nelson should be a prominent TE for the Bills this season and the near future starter, and his athleticism gives him future stud potential. Unfortunately, he plays for the Bills, who have essentially become the "New Lions" team. Their QBs, O-line, and WR corp are all questionable and borderline god awful. It will take a while for Nelson to live up to his potential.

~As explained in my Rookie Rankings, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta are grouped together until one emerges as the favorite to eventually inherit Todd Heap's starting position. I consider them relatively equal talents until one of them develops more successfully. I like Dickson a bit better for the long haul, but Pitta has looked better in the Raven's OTAs thus far.

~Fendi Onobun is certainly a less popular rookie name, but he is a former basketball player converting into a TE. He may have a better chance of busting than succeeding, but given the Rams desperate lack of TE talent on the roster, Onobun has every opportunity possible to prove he can convert his athleticism into production on the gridiron.

2010 Rookie Rankings

2010-06-11T12:41:00.007-04:00

Rookies Key:
Undrafted rookie
Plays multiple positions
Not a rookie

Top 50

1. RB Ryan Mathews SD, 23
2. RB Jahvid Best DET, 21
3. WR Dez Bryant DAL, 21-22
4. RB C.J. Spiller BUF, 23
5. RB Ben Tate HOU, 22
6. WR Demaryius Thomas DEN, 22-23
7. WR Arrelious Benn TB, 22
8. WR Golden Tate SEA, 22
9. RB Montario Hardesty CLE, 23
10. QB Sam Bradford STL, 22-23
11. WR Brandon LaFell CAR, 23-24
12. WR Dexter McCluster KC, 22
13. WR Taylor Price NE, 22-23
14. WR Emmanuel Sanders PIT, 23
15. WR Mike Williams TB, 23
16. WR Eric Decker DEN, 23
17. QB Jimmy Clausen CAR, 22-23
18. QB Charlie Whitehurst SEA, 28/5
19. TE Jermaine Gresham CIN, 22
20. RB Jonathan Dwyer PIT, 21
21. TE Jimmy Graham NO, 23-24
22. WR Carlton Mitchell CLE, 22
23. WR Damian Williams TEN, 22
24. WR Marcus Easley BUF, 22-23
25. WR Mardy Gilyard STL, 23-24
26. WR Andre Roberts ARI, 22
27. RB Toby Gerhart MIN, 23
28. RB James Starks GB, 24
29. QB John Skelton ARI, 22
30. QB Colt McCoy CLE, 24
31. RB Joe McKnight NYJ, 22
32. QB Tim Tebow DEN, 23
33. TE Ed Dickson BAL, 23
34. TE Dennis Pitta BAL, 25
35. TE Aaron Hernandez NE, 20-21
36. TE Rob Gronkowski NE, 21
37. WR Armanti Edwards CAR, 22
38. WR Jordan Shipley CIN, 24-25
39. RB Anthony Dixon SF, 22-23
40. RB LeGarrette Blount TEN, 23-24
41. WR Dezmon Briscoe CIN, 21
42. WR Antonio Brown PIT, 22
43. QB Mike Kafka PHI, 23
44. RB Lonyae Miller DAL, 22
45. QB Dan LeFevour CHI, 23
46. WR Jacoby Ford OAK, 23
47. RB Shawnbrey McNeal SD, 21-22
48. WR Scott Long SF, 23-24
49. WR Dorin Dickerson HOU, 22
50. RB Charles Scott PHI, 22

QBs

1. Sam Bradford STL, 22-23
2. Jimmy Clausen CAR, 22-23
3. John Skelton ARI, 22
4. Colt McCoy CLE, 24
5. Tim Tebow DEN, 23
6. Mike Kafka PHI, 23
7. Dan LeFevour CHI, 23
8. Tony Pike CAR, 24
9. Rusty Smith TEN, 23
10. Jonathan Crompton SD, 23
11. Levi Brown BUF, 23
12. Jevan Snead TB, 23
13. Jarrett Brown SF, 24
14. Sean Canfield NO, 23-24
15. Zac Robinson NE, 23-24

RBs

1. Ryan Mathews SD, 23
2. Jahvid Best DET, 21
3. C.J. Spiller BUF, 23
4. Ben Tate HOU, 22
5. Montario Hardesty CLE, 23
6. Jonathan Dwyer PIT, 21
7. Toby Gerhart MIN, 23
8. James Starks GB, 24
9. Joe McKnight NYJ, 22
10. Anthony Dixon SF, 22-23
11. LeGarrette Blount TEN, 23-24
12. Lonyae Miller DAL, 22
13. Shawnbrey McNeal SD, 21-22
14. Charles Scott PHI, 22
15. Deji Karim JAC, 23-24
16. Keiland Williams WAS, 24
17. Brandon Minor CHI, 22
18. Javarris James IND, 22-23
19. Joique Bell BUF, 24
20. Alfonso Smith ARI, 23
21. Chris Brown DEN, 23

WRs

1. Dez Bryant DAL, 21-22
2. Demaryius Thomas DEN, 22-23
3. Arrelious Benn TB, 22
4. Golden Tate SEA, 22
5. Brandon LaFell CAR, 23-24
6. Dexter McCluster KC, 22
7. Taylor Price NE, 22-23
8. Emmanuel Sanders PIT, 23
9. Mike Williams TB, 23
10. Eric Decker DEN, 23
11. Carlton Mitchell CLE, 22
12. Damian Williams TEN, 22
13. Marcus Easley BUF, 22-23
14. Mardy Gilyard STL, 23-24
15. Andre Roberts ARI, 22
16. Armanti Edwards CAR, 22
17. Jordan Shipley CIN, 24-25
18. Dezmon Briscoe CIN, 21
19. Antonio Brown PIT, 22
20. Jacoby Ford OAK, 23
21. Scott Long SF, 23-24
22. Dorin Dickerson HOU, 22
23. Riley Cooper PHI, 23
24. Jeremy Williams SD, 23
25. Seyi Ajirotutu SD, 23
26. Kerry Meier ATL, 23
27. Blair White IND, 23
28. Chris McGaha JAC, 23-24
29. David Gettis CAR, 23
30. Joe Webb MIN, 23-24
31. David Reed BAL, 23
32. Donald Jones BUF, 22-23
33. Freddie Barnes CHI, 23-24
34. Marc Mariani TEN, 23

TEs

1. Jermaine Gresham CIN, 22
2. Jimmy Graham NO, 23-24
3. Ed Dickson BAL, 23
4. Dennis Pitta BAL, 25
5. Aaron Hernandez NE, 20-21
6. Rob Gronkowski NE, 21
7. Garrett Graham HOU, 24
8. Fendi Onobun STL, 23-24
9. Tony Moeaki KC, 23
10. Anthony McCoy SEA, 22-23
11. Jameson Konz SEA, 24
12. Clay Harbor PHI, 23
13. Michael Hoomanawanui STL, 22

Notes

~I added Charlie Whitehurst into my top 50 because I doubt he is owned on any dynasty team before the rookie/FA drafts take place. I would have liked him better than Jimmy Clausen if he wasn't a good five years older than Clausen.

~I almost ranked Ben Tate above C.J. Spiller, and I still may consider doing so. Spiller's situation in Buffalo stinks badly, but his pure talent is thoroughly undeniable.

~Notice the massive falloff in RB talent after Montario Hardesty?

~Sam Bradford has some bust potential. He is on a bad Rams team and he is converting from a spread system at Oklahoma. He has all the tools to be successful, but don't expect him to reach stud status.

~I never bought into any Tim Tebow hype. He has a long way to go to simply be a reliable starter for the Broncos. Being a reliable starter for your fantasy team is even further off, if it occurs at all. His mechanics are improving, but his decision-making and accuracy continues to be questionable. His new throwing motion is not natural, which could cause one too many thoughts to be in his head from snap to throw.

~Dez Bryant is in his own tier of WRs. The next tier is Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn, and Golden Tate, and those three are very close in value. After Tate, there is a pretty decent drop in talent, starting with Brandon LaFell.

~James Starks is a very nice sleeper option. I actually like him better than Toby Gerhart, but Gerhart is ranked higher because he will see the field sooner and is more durable. If Starks stays healthy, he could push Ryan Grant for the starting job in a couple of years.

~I share everybody's sentiments about Jermaine Gresham's potential underuse with the Bengals, but at the same time, the Bengals and Carson Palmer have not had a TE with Gresham's immense talent. Even though Jimmy Graham is a big athletic freak, who is a fantastic rookie to own in dynasty, Gresham has a ton more experience and is the unquestioned top rookie TE, even after considering his team situation and potential opportunities.

~Sticking with the TEs, I am not that high on either Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and the Patriots are notorious for spreading receptions around to everybody, including multiple TEs in any given game. Hernandez and Gronkowski will take the limited catches away from each other. I like Hernandez's value better as a more athletic pass-catcher and especially since he will line up as a WR on some plays.

~I might as well finish my last thoughts on the TE rankings. Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta will compete to be the heir-apparent to Todd Heap. That is why I grouped them together at 3 and 4 in the TE ranks. I like Dickson's pass-catching ability better, but the news out of the Ravens' camp so far is that Pitta has looked better.

~I had a really difficult time ranking Carlton Mitchell, Damian Williams, Marcus Easley, Mardy Gilyard, and Andre Roberts from 11 to 15 in the WR ranks. They are all almost equal in value when you combine their skills with their opportunities. Mitchell has the best opportunity, while Williams and Roberts have the best abilities.

~You will notice some undrafted rookies on my list, some of which you may not have heard of. While LeGarrette Blount is the obvious one to be owned, players like Lonyae Miller, Shawnbrey McNeal, Scott Long, Jeremy Williams/Seyi Ajirotutu, Blair White, and Chris McGaha deserve your attention. All of these guys and the rest of the undrafted rookies you find in my rankings have some potential to surprise in the next few years.

COMPLETE "USFL Dynasty League" Rookie/Free Agent Draft

2010-05-13T03:36:00.014-04:00

I will be posting the picks made from my dynasty league as they occur. The league's format is 12 teams, standard scoring with PPR, no IDP, and our starting requirements allow the possibility of starting a second QB in a flex position. I will comment on every pick as they are made. The draft officially begins May 1st, but early picks may be made. Since owners from this league visit this site, I will not mention, and attempt not to reference, any players who have not yet been picked. Here is the direct link to the draft forum we made our official picks in and the discussions held (many not involving the picks): http://usfldynastyfootball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=draft2010

**My picks

1.01 ~ RB Ryan Matthews, SD

This is pretty much the consensus top pick of any rookie draft. He will be immediately inserted into the Chargers lineup as the starting and primary RB, with Darren Sproles returning back to his change-of-pace role. Norv Turner has already expressed interest in giving Matthews around 250 carries and 40 receptions during his rookie year, which would be more than what LaDanian Tomlinson racked up last year (223 carries 20 receptions). Matthews is the only RB in this draft who is guaranteed to have a primary role, and not splitting carries in a committee situation.

1.02 ~ WR Dez Bryant, DAL

He wasn't the first WR taken in the NFL Draft, but he is certainly the most talented WR and wound up with the Cowboys and a very good QB in Tony Romo. He isn't the fastest WR, but he is quick, can run all the routes, has solid hands, and is very strong and athletic. He will find success immediately in the Cowboys offense, but he will need to improve his consistency. In a PPR league, he certainly makes sense as the second pick off of the board, and he may even be picked here in no-PPR leagues, if the team drafting from this spot needs WR help. Both of these picks have been made by the same team, as they are in a rebuilding mode.

1.03 ~ RB C.J. Spiller, BUF

Spiller getting drafted by the Bills is a perfect example of a player having his value drop because of the team who drafted him. He is arguably the most electric and dynamic offensive player in this year's NFL Draft. Unfortunately, he finds himself on an NFL team with a ragtag offensive line and a forgettable passing offense. Let's not forget the crowded backfield he joined with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Ultimately, his talent alone causes him to be an undeniable top five rookie/FA draft pick. He is a pure home run hitter who lives by the big play and can break them off at any time. He can be comparable to Reggie Bush, which is good and bad. If he learns to run up the middle and absorb hits from linebackers, he will be a successful NFL RB.

1.04 ~ RB Jahvid Best, DET

The Lions have drafted the player who I think is the most talented and gifted offensive player out of this draft. Best is versatile, has ridiculous lateral quickness, is faster than most NFL players, can run between the tackles, and does a pretty good job of breaking tackles, even though he is 199 lbs. The only main problems with Best is his ability to stay healthy and his poor blocking. Many people would make an argument for C.J. Spiller or Ryan Matthews as the best RB talents in the draft. Just because Matthews got drafted into the best situation and Spiller doesn't have injury issues doesn't mean Best is not the Best RB (just had to say it) in this draft class. Many people also worry about a committee situation with Kevin Smith. Best has a golden opportunity to shine before Smith returns to the lineup, since it appears more and more likely that Smith starts the season on the PUP. So far, this draft seems to be the standard across dynasty leagues and rookie rankings everywhere.

**1.05 ~ RB Ben Tate, HOU

My first draft pick rounds out the top tier of talent in this rookie/FA draft. Tate finds himself in a zone-blocking system that fits his skills perfectly. He has NFL size, NFL speed, and comes from a notorious RB factory, Auburn. Tate possesses the size and skills to be an every-down NFL RB. He finds himself in a slightly crowded backfield, but Steve Slaton is coming off of a season filled with fumbles, the inside of Coach Kubiak's doghouse, and the neck injury that ended his rocky season. Also, Arian Foster may have ended the season in workhorse fashion, but he does not possess the speed of Tate. The Texans made it apparent before the draft that they were going to address the RB position, and they landed a RB who was near the top of their list. I will predict Tate becomes the featured RB with Slaton taking the passing down roles and Foster playing the primary backup role. I was hoping the owner at 1.04 took Tate so I could draft Jahvid Best, partially because I am a Lions fan, and partially because Best is a playmaker extraordinaire. However, I was perfectly happy to land whichever player was left over. I predict Tate, Best, and Ryan Matthews will compete for rookie of the year honors.

1.06 ~ RB Montario Hardesty, CLE

Even though I dropped him a tier below the above picks, Hardesty tends to be the most popular pick at 1.06. He is very comparable to Ben Tate, but he is not quite as fast, he is slightly more agile, and he has been injury prone. He gets drafted into a rebuilding Browns team, who lacks a respectable passing game and have a few very good RBs already on the roster. We all know how Jerome Harrison finished the season, including his 286 yds, 3 TDs explosion in week 15 last season. Part of why he found so much success at the end of the season was because Coach Mangini gave up on their pathetic passing attack and ran Harrison 106 times in the last 3 games. James Davis will be easily forgotten about, but he had a very impressive preseason last year before Mangini decided to allow a linebacker in pads hit the padless Davis in some kind of moronic drill, causing him to find the IR. There is also Peyton Hillis and Chris Jennings in the mix. Ultimately, none of these guys pose a major threat to Hardesty seeing the field often, but the presence of most of them (Jennings should be the odd man out) means Hardesty will not be an every down RB, and he will probably face eight defenders in the box quite a bit. He still has a ton of talent, though, and deserves to be picked here.

1.07 ~ QB Jimmy Clausen, CAR

This is a surprise pick here, and a bit of a reach considering who is still available. However, this is kind of a homer pick for the team owner, who is a huge Notre Dame fan, so picking this second or third ranked QB is understandable. Clausen got drafted by the Panthers, who have already declared Matt Moore the starter, but apparently are still wary about trusting him. To make matters worse for Clausen, he wasn't the only QB drafted by the Panthers. Nonetheless, Clausen has been proclaimed as the most NFL ready QB in the draft, which really means nothing if he doesn't see the field in his first year. He has all the talent to succeed in the NFL, but he tends to be very overconfident, which could get him in a lot of trouble on the field. Most of his mechanics are sound, but he can telegraph which throw he is about to make. Overall, he could very well be the starter for the Panthers within a few years, and he can be very successful if he understands that he still has a huge learning curve to travel. He also needs Moore to either struggle or be traded in order to be on the field.
Disclaimer: I have been notified by the owner who selected Jimmy Clausen at 1.07 (with Sam Bradford still on the board), that even though he is a huge Notre Dame fan, his pick had nothing to do with Fighting Irish bias. He believes Clausen is indeed a better prospect than Bradford. I guess it does help that Clausen is on a better team and ran a pro-style offense under Charlie Weis' tutelage.

1.08 ~ QB Sam Bradford, STL

I actually traded out of this pick because I knew Bradford was the best available player here (or maybe second or third best behind the next two picks), and I was not targeting Bradford for my draft. I traded down to 1.10 and traded up into pick 2.07 from 3.02 as compensation. After Bradford, there is a small group of WRs who can be grouped into the same tier, which is what I had interest in. Bradford is essentially the top QB prospect, not only in the NFL draft, but also in most every rookie draft. He has all the tools, leadership abilities, and an immediate opportunity to prove himself worthy of the number one overall draft pick in the NFL. Very smart and somewhat obvious pick to a rebuilding dynasty team.

1.09 ~ WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN

I was kind of surprised that he lasted until this pick. I figured he would be picked at the most obvious position, which is after the big drop in RB value after Montario Hardesty, but before the QBs. He is a very popular pick at 1.06 or 1.07. Thomas was the first WR taken in the NFL Draft, even though Dez Bryant is certainly the most talented. Thomas possesses elite size and strength, runs pretty fast, and has great hands. Unfortunately, his major problem is route running. He comes from a very run-heavy offense with limited passing plays, so he never really had the opportunity to polish his route running or learn a full route tree. He may be more of a project WR in his first year, but if he studies the playbook well and practices hard, he could flourish in his second year on a Broncos team who has limited playmaker receiving options and needs him to step into the primary WR role as soon as possible. The owner of this pick also happened to own picks 1.06 and 1.07, so passing on Thomas at 1.07 still ended up working in his favor.

**1.10 ~ WR Arrelious Benn, TB

The Buccaneers entered this draft with one of worst corp of WRs I have ever seen. WR was their most obvious need entering the draft, and they wasted no time drafting the highly touted Illinois University product, early in the second round. Benn enters a situation that demands his presence on the field early and often. He is one of two rookie WRs that the Bucs will be forced to have on the field as primary WRs, starting week 1. That's not really a bad thing considering Benn is big, incredibly athletic, has great hands, and is pretty fast. He should be making a case to be Josh Freeman's top target for many years. I traded down into this pick, hoping Demaryius Thomas would land here, but I am still happy to "settle" for Benn, who is one of three WRs I had grouped together in the second tier of WRs (Dez Bryant commands his own tier).

1.11 ~ RB Jonathan Dwyer, PIT

This pick was a bit of a surprise, but not a bad pick. This pick demonstrates the tactic in dynasty to draft talent disregarding the team situation they are in. Dwyer is a very good RB, but does not have much opportunity with the Steelers...yet. There are a few options on the draft board that I would have taken over Dwyer, but at the same time, the RB value fizzled out quickly after Hardesty was selected, and the owner of this pick needed RB help. Dwyer saw his stock plummet from the combine into the NFL Draft, mainly because he didn't run very well at the combine. He was originally projected to be first or second round talent, but scouts got scared off when he was slow in his combine drills. It also didn't help that he ran out of the fullback position in the triple option at Georgia Tech, and he dropped from 240 lbs to 229 lbs for the combine. Ultimately, he is capable of being a featured power RB since he has the size, quick feet, and toughness to do so, but he currently has to be Rashard Mendenhall's backup.

1.12 ~ RB Toby Gerhart, MIN

Again, this pick is a surprise, but not bad. Gerhart has the unfortunate scenario of being drafted to spell one of the most established workhorse RBs in the NFL, known by some as "All Day." There has been much speculation as to how Gerhart will fit in the NFL and if he can be a starting RB for an NFL team. Those questions were answered when he got drafted as essentially a backup. In fact, it puzzled me why the Vikings would bother spending such an early draft pick on a RB. Gerhart will likely be used to spell Adrian Peterson on passing downs as a blocker and in short-yardage and goalline scenarios. There could be the threat of Gerhart being a TD vulture. There is also the possibility the Vikings might groom him to be a FB in the mold of Mike Alstott, where he will touch the ball much more than a standard FB. I don't think he has the potential to make a huge impact in the NFL since his speed and agility are very average, and he certainly would have to wait a long time for a starting opportunity.

2.01 ~ WR Golden Tate, SEA

He is the third of the three WRs I mentioned to be in this second tier of WRs. He is also the main reason why the Jonathan Dwyer and Toby Gerhart picks surprised me. In a PPR league, WRs and RBs have very similar values, and to pass on a WR who will probably start right away and be a factor, for a RB who will be a backup for at least two years is not a strategy I would employ. Tate is all around impressive and showed it at the combine, when he scored high in just about every drill. He reminds me of Steve Smith from the Panthers without the elite speed and acceleration. He has great hands, runs good routes, fights for every jump ball (and usually wins), and can break tackles. He is considered a little short in stature, but that hasn't stopped the likes of Smith, Greg Jennings, or DeShaun Jackson from being superb. Unfortunately, he enters a system where he is similar to all the other WRs (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Deon Butler), and playing similar roles to those guys in certain passing situations will cause the receptions to be spread around. He is definitely insurance for the Seahawks if Houshmandzadeh continues to struggle this season.

2.02 ~ TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN

2.02 seems awfully early for a TE to come off the board, but if you look at the options left over after Montario Hardesty, Golden Tate, and (Sam Bradford and) Jimmy Clausen at each position, you could make a case for Gresham to be on par with the players left on the board. Gresham is the premier TE in this year's draft, who has a rare mix of size, speed, and athleticism for a TE. He may not have elite TE speed, but he can still stretch the field and make big plays. He is also an excellent down-field blocker. However, there is concern that Gresham may not be fully utilized as a receiver with the Bengals. They have never found much use to pass to TEs, but at the same time, they have never had a TE of Gresham's talent level. Potential under-use along with the knee injury that ended his final season at Oklahoma are points of concern when drafting him to your team. I was targeting him for my draft, but I was fully expecting him to fall at least close to my next pick at 2.07.

2.03 ~ WR Brandon LaFell, CAR

This is a solid pick of a WR who has a leg up on the position opposite of Steve Smith on the field. LaFell should immediately beat out the bust Dwayne Jarrett to become the possession WR for the Panthers. He is a strong and aggressive WR who is not afraid to make catches in traffic. He is not fast enough to create separation, so he is perfect to run short to intermediate routes under zone coverage and create yards after the catch. This is a very solid pick in a PPR league.

2.04 ~ WR Mike Williams, TB

He has a big giant red flag hovering over his head, but his talent level could be elite. The first thing you should know about him at Syracuse is he missed the 2008 season due to academics and he actually quit the team in November 2009. It is an absolute shame because this moron possesses first round talent. He is big, strong, quick more than fast, and gives full effort on the field. Just like Arrelious Benn, he will be on the field early and often during his rookie year, given the lack of depth the Bucs have at WR. If he is able to pull his head out of his ass and take his job with the Buccaneers seriously, he will pay huge dividends to those who have drafted him in their rookie/FA drafts.

2.05 ~ WR Carlton Mitchell, CLE

This pick pretty much marks the start of "everything goes" in this draft because after Jermaine Gresham got picked at 2.02, it pretty much becomes a crapshoot, even though Brandon LaFell and Mike Williams are rightfully popular picks early in the second round. Mitchell brings a rare mix of size and speed to the table, and can make an impact right away within the weak Browns WR corp. Mitchell fits into the West Coast System that the Browns employ, but he has problems running routes and using his hands to make catches. Those are two problem areas that can be fixed in a couple of years. Now if Colt McCoy can get the ball down the field to him on his standard deep routes in future years...

2.06 ~ QB Tim Tebow, DEN

I am sick of talking about him, hearing about him, speculating about him, etc. I will simply say to draft him only if you have an incredible amount of patience. You will be waiting for a really long time to see him help your dynasty team. He is a common second round pick, but I suggest letting someone else draft him.

**2.07 ~ QB Charlie Whitehurst, SEA

This might possibly be the earliest you will ever see a free agent get drafted in a rookie/FA draft. He was a draft target of mine long before the draft started, partially because I am also the owner of Matt Hasselbeck as my third QB. Nobody knows a lot about Whitehurst since he has not thrown an NFL pass during the regular season, while serving as the third QB for the Chargers during his four year tenure in the NFL. What I do know, is Pete Carroll knows his QBs. Once he became the Seahawks' head coach, he immediately pegged Whitehurst as the future of the team by trading for him and paying him $8 million over two years. Carroll has been a factor in developing current NFL starters Carson Palmer, Matt Cassell, Matt Leinart, and Mark Sanchez while they played at USC. I repeat...Pete Carroll knows his QBs. Whitehurst has a big arm and two fast WRs in Golden Tate and Deon Butler at his disposal, once he becomes the starter. I thought about trading down a few spots thinking he would slide a bit, but once I saw Tim Tebow get taken with the previous pick, I wasted no time selecting Whitehurst.

2.08 ~ RB/WR Dexter McCluster, KC

The Chiefs drafted him as essentially a Swiss army knife. He will be lined up often as a WR, and will probably see very little time in the backfield. He is very diminutive for the NFL and is not suited to run between the tackles, but he should be a dynamic playmaker in the open field. He could also help return kicks. I think his official listed position will be WR, so don't draft him if you are looking to bulk up your RB depth. This pick was originally my pick, but I traded down assuming the owner who traded with me was looking at him as a BPA (best player available) pick. I really don't see him making a huge fantasy impact, since he will be more of a situational player, but Coach Haley will look to find ways to get him mismatched against defenders. Don't expect him to touch the ball more than ten times in any given game, and when he does, hope for the homerun.

2.09 ~ WR Taylor Price, NE

It seems as though he was drafted by the Patriots to be the heir apparent to Randy Moss. He is a bigger WR who is a burner down the field and can make athletic catches with ease. However, he still needs to work on his route running and is very raw at this point. Moss is getting older, and has mentioned that this may be his last year with the Patriots. The Patriots need a big play, downfield WR to help the offense click and keep Wes Welker open underneath. If and when Moss departs from the team, Price should be plugged in as his replacement. I love this pick and the value this late in the second round. If I didn't already have a huge stack of WRs on my roster, I would've targeted this man once he slipped into the second half of this round.

2.10 ~ QB Colt McCoy, CLE

The Browns drafted him as their future franchise QB. In his arsenal, he possesses superb accuracy, a quick release, has a high football IQ, is a great leader, has excellent footwork, and he also fits into the West Coast system the Browns run. That being said, here is what could seriously compromise those wonderful assets...he is short in stature by NFL QB standards, lacks arm strength, and has to translate his skills from a spread offense to a pro-style offense. All things considered, he will be the Browns' starter no later than next season, and he is certainly worth taking a chance on with this pick...but no earlier than this pick.

2.11 ~ RB Joe McKnight, NYJ

A bit of a homer selection for the owner of this pick, but a very solid choice at this point in the draft. McKnight is supposed to take over the role Leon Washington had in the Jets offense as a passing down RB, along with helping in the return game. It remains to be seen if he can be just as effective, but he has the quickness, agility, and vision to gain huge chunks of yards and make defenders miss him. His inability to stay healthy will assure his role doesn't expand further in the future.

**2.12 ~ RB James Starks, GB

My fourth pick of this draft is a very nice sleeper pick. In an attempt to further build my RB depth while finalizing a trade giving up DeAngelo Williams and Felix Jones for Maurice Jones-Drew (a third round pick this year and a second round pick next year), I was happy to select Starks here. He fell on a lot of draft boards because he missed his senior season at Buffalo University after undergoing surgery to repair his injured shoulder. He was considered to become second or third round NFL Draft material before the injury. Starks is a big back who has decent agility and very good speed, and he could earn a larger role in the future if he can prove his durability. Until that time comes, he should edge out Brandon Jackson for the primary backup role to Ryan Grant.

3.01 ~ WR Damian Williams, TEN

I don't know why the Titans bothered to spend another high-ish pick on a WR when they already have Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Justin Gage (contract expires after 2011), and TEs Bo Scaife and Jared Cook (both excellent pass-catchers) on the roster. Unfortunately, Williams--a superb route runner and pass catcher--has a lot of traffic to fight through to see the field enough for any fantasy relevance, especially in a more conservative, run-oriented offense. Given his talent level and disregarding his current team situation, he has good value at this pick.

3.02 ~ WR Eric Decker, DEN

He is a big athletic WR who is not too fast, but is very quick and agile and runs crisp routes. He fits the possession WR standard and will more than likely make a living underneath zone coverage. He is a good sleeper and has wonderful value here for a PPR league.

3.03 ~ WR Jordan Shipley, CIN

He is a smaller WR who has very average speed and agility. You really don't need to know any more about him because a WR in the NFL under 6' tall and under 200 lbs typically requires a substantial amount of speed and/or quickness to be successful in the bigs. He could make a living with short underneath routes, which could make him a quality PPR pick here. It doesn't help that he joins a WR corp already boasting Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, Andre Caldwell, and the newly drafted Jermaine Gresham and Dezmon Briscoe. I think he has high bust potential and there are a few better options with this pick.

3.04 ~ WR Emmanuel Sanders, PIT

Sanders fell through one too many cracks in this draft and unfortunately for the rest of us owners, he landed on one of the best teams in this dynasty league. I considered drafting him at 2.12, but again, I had a greater need at RB. The Steelers have once again, disregarded Ben Roethlisberger's desires for a big WR, especially since Lame-ass....errr....Limas Sweed has been a major disappointment. They have picked another smaller, fast WR, who is also a solid route runner and very athletic--a formula that has been successful with the likes of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Antwaan Randle-El, and Mike Wallace. With Ward aging and Holmes beating women in New York, Sanders should see ample opportunity to secure his spot in the starting lineup. He is a great sleeper, and would have had excellent value in the bottom of the second round of this draft.

3.05 ~ TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

As a TE, getting drafted by the Patriots will kill your fantasy value. Being one of two receiving TEs drafted by the Patriots is even worse. Gronkowski is the complete package, but may be used more for his blocking ability. He is, however, a great receiving and route-running TE but lacks speed and elusiveness and has problems staying healthy. Just about anything goes at this point in this draft, but there is a better TE option made by me at the next pick.

**3.06 ~ TE Jimmy Graham, NO

Supremely athletic for a guy his size (6'6" 260 lbs)--fast, quick, and agile--but only has one year of college football experience after choosing the gridiron over basketball. He is extremely raw, but will have time to develop under Jeremy Shockey, and it doesn't hurt to have Drew Brees as his QB. He has already drawn comparisons to Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez, but is much less polished at this point in his short career as a TE. As this pick was fast approaching, I acquired it as part of the Maurice Jones-Drew trade I mentioned earlier to specifically target Graham.

3.07 ~ WR Mardy Gilyard, STL

Gilyard will be battling for time on the field with Laurent Robinson, Donnie Avery, and Brandon Gibson. He is a good athlete who is quick and has nice hands, but has average speed and bulk for his size. He is a nice prospect to stash, since the WRs he will be competing against for field time are not exactly scaring opponents.

3.08 ~ RB Anthony Dixon, SF

When the 49ers drafted him, the first thing I thought was that they have little faith in Glen Coffee, to not only backup Frank Gore, but also to handle short-yardage duties. Dixon could certainly relegate Coffee and become a TD vulture. He possesses big time power and quick feet, though his speed is very average. Considering the RBs left on the board, Dixon was a solid pick and worth taking a chance on.

3.09 ~ WR Andre Roberts, ARI

The Cardinals drafted this small school prospect to acquire WR depth after both Anquan Boldin and Jereme Urban departed. With Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and the emerging Early Doucet on the roster, drafting a WR wasn't a great need, but it was necessary, and they got good value with this gem. Roberts is very quick and agile and is a good route runner, but he should find it difficult to be more than the fourth WR for the Cardinals, considering the players in front of him. Drafting him here at 3.09 is excellent value if you have room to stash him on your roster for a few years to let him develop and get opportunities.

**3.10 ~ QB John Skelton, ARI

Skelton possesses one of the strongest arms you will ever see in an NFL QB. Being a small school prospect with a gun for an arm and big NFL size has drawn favorable, but unfair comparisons to Joe Flacco. However, he is not nearly as polished as Flacco was at this point in his career. He is overconfident in his wonderful arm strength, causing him to try to force a lot of throws, and he needs to learn how to read NFL defenses. He is a project that will take no less than two years to properly develop, but sitting behind Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson is assuring to dynasty owners who draft him. He will find opportunities soon.

3.11 ~ RB LeGarrette Blount, TEN

Blount's character issues and poor offseason training habits caused him to go undrafted in the NFL draft. As a really big and strong power back who breaks tackles everywhere, he is a steal for the Titans to find as a rookie free agent. He will compliment Chris Johnson, taking some of the short-yardage duties. Unfortunately, LenDale White was also supposed to compliment CJ last season, but was nothing more than a cheerleader while CJ handled a lot of the short-yardage duties. If Blount keeps his poor attitude under control, he will be a nice prospect to own.

3.12 ~ WR Jabar Gaffney, DEN

The second free agent off of the board could be the Broncos top WR this season, while Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker develop. While Brandon Marshall sat out in week 17 of the 2009 season, Gaffney had a career day with 14 receptions for over 200 yards. If he is a free agent in your league, he is a nice pick if you need immediate WR help.

3.13 ~ TE Aaron Hernandez, NE

This pick is a compensatory selection for winning the fantasy playoff challenge amongst our league members. Hernandez is the second TE drafted by the Patriots. He is faster and more athletic than Rob Gronkowski, but he is also slightly undersized. He is good talent to stash on your roster, but you should hope he can find another team within the next several years so he can fully utilize his fantasy potential.

4.01 ~ RB Charles Scott, PHI

Scott is a big strong pile-pushing RB, but not much more. He will compete with FB Leonard Weaver to be the Eagles primary short-yardage and goalline RB.

4.02 ~ TE Tony Moeaki, KC

Moeaki was drafted by the Chiefs as primarily a blocker. His fantasy value will be limited, mainly because neither Coach Haley or Coach Weis has been known to utilize TEs as receivers.

4.03 ~ RB Deji Karim, JAC

He will battle Rashaad Jennings in a losing battle to be Maurice Jones-Drew's primary backup.

4.04 ~ WR David Reed, BAL

He will have to make his name on special teams before he will catch passes from Joe Flacco. He has limited upside and too much WR traffic in front of him on the depth chart.

4.05 ~ QB Byron Leftwich, PIT

He will battle Dennis Dixon to be the starting QB early in the season while Ben Roethlisberger serves his suspension. He still has very little dynasty value, and should only be selected or owned by a team desperate for QB help early this year.

4.06 ~ WR Marcus Easley, BUF

I'm kind of surprised he fell this far. He is a good WR who landed in an opportunistic situation with the Bills. He has an excellent combination of size, speed, and athleticism and flashes big-play ability. With Lee Evans once again entrenched as the Bills top WR, Easley has weak competition amongst the likes of James Hardy, Steve Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and Chad Jackson. It's safe to say he'll see the field sooner rather than later, as long as he improves his hands and route-running, but don't get too excited with Brian Brohm, Trent Edwards, or Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball.

4.07 ~ QB Seneca Wallace, CLE

He has minimal fantasy value as the occasional trick play player or WR. Even if Jake Delhomme blows his new opportunity this season, Wallace's dynasty value as his backup does not increase because Colt McCoy is the future QB of the Browns.

4.08 ~ WR Dezmon Briscoe, CIN

He was highly rated until he ran poorly at the Scouting Combine. He has a lot of traffic to fight though and will need to out-perform Jerome Simpson and Matt Jones just to be the fifth WR on the Bengals. He is athletic and has great hands, so I like his chances to stick around for a while in Cincinnati and have time to develop.

4.09 ~ TE Ed Dickson, BAL

Dickson is one of two TEs drafted to eventually inherit the primary TE role from Todd Heap. Dickson is a solid receiving TE who is athletic and quick. He could see an increased role in the near future, but he will still have competition. Very nice value at the bottom of the fourth round of this draft, and I would say the same thing if he got picked ten picks earlier.

4.10 ~ RB Jalen Parmele, BAL

He is the third RB behind Ray Rice and Willis McGahee on the depth chart, but this younger RB has been a popular dynasty prospect the last two years of his NFL career. He has yet to live up to dynasty owner's expectations, and he won't do it this year either.

4.11 ~ TE Anthony McCoy, SEA

If anyone can teach McCoy to live up to his potential, it should be his former college coach, Pete Carroll. Character issues caused this solid TE prospect to slide in the NFL Draft. Unfortunately, since John Carlson is entrenched as the starting TE, primarily for his receiving abilities, McCoy's more than adequate blocking capabilities might be of more interest to the Seahawks' coaching staff.

4.12 ~ QB/WR Armanti Edwards, CAR

It seems more than likely that the Panthers drafted Edwards to add a respectable Wildcat dimension to their offense. This fast, play-making prospect will be converted to a WR, but he could see some time running Wildcat plays (ala Joshua Cribbs) since they would be very similar to the options plays he ran at Appalachian State. He has a high football IQ, so he could convert to the WR position quickly and cut through the very average competition to become the primary slot WR within the season. This is a very solid sleeper pick this late in the draft.

5.01 ~ K Neil Rackers, HOU

He will be put in direct competition with Kris Brown since Brown struggled badly last season.

5.02 ~ Pick Forfeited.

5.03 ~ Pick Forfeited.

5.04 ~ RB Brian Westbrook, FA

Westbrook was released by a team in need of space for a prospect in one of the previous rounds. He should still have a roster spot on at least a team in desperate RB help this year or next.

5.05 ~ TE Zach Miller, JAC

This pick is proof of a small oversight by many of the owners in this league, including myself. He ended last season with an 8 catch, 69 yards, and 2 TD performance in week 17 as a rookie. I guess since we have 30 player/defense rosters (that's 360 owned players/defenses), there is potential to overlook someone like Miller in this draft. I actually thought he was already owned and I didn't even think about him during the draft. He should have been an early fourth round target for owners.

5.06 ~ QB Mike Kafka, PHI

He is a decent sleeper prospect to develop behind Kevin Kolb, but his opportunities will be very limited for a long time, pending any injuries to either Kolb or Mike Vick.

5.07 ~ Pick Forfeited

**5.08 ~ Pick Forfeited

I have nobody I want to drop from my roster.

5.09 ~ Pick Forfeited

5.10 ~ QB Dan LeFevour, CHI

Solid prospect who can develop under the tutelage of Mike Martz, and learn from Jay Cutler. This was a surprise pick by the Bears, since they have many other pressing needs and no veteran QB to backup Cutler. LeFevour's opportunities will be limited until either he or Cutler find another team in the future.

5.11 ~ RB Martell Mallett, PHI

Huh??? Doesn't matter.

5.12 ~ Pick Forfeited

The Donovan McNabb Trade ~ Fantasy Implications

2010-04-06T15:32:00.011-04:00

There are some huge fantasy implications involving the Donovan McNabb trade that went down Easter Sunday. As the speculation was swirling about where he could be traded (Oakland being the front runner), all of the obvious options were explored. Basically, every team that needed QB help was considered, including the Redskins who became less and less interested in Jason Campbell running the offense. The Redskins seem like a nice fit for McNabb because Mike Shannahan runs a similar West Coast offensive system and likes a QB who can bootleg or roll out, creating passing plays while scrambling. Prior to the trade going down, all the offensive pieces seemed to be in place for the Redskins to make a playoff run, as long as the right QB was put in place to run the plays (and as long as the holes in the offensive line get addressed during the NFL draft).

So, why the hell would the Eagles trade a pro-bowl caliber QB to a division rival, who they will play twice every year? There was speculation as early as Saturday that the Redskins had inquired about McNabb, but it was still more of a rumor than a report. This wasn't out of the ordinary because many of the teams needing an upgrade at QB had inquired about trading for him. Of course many people, including myself, immediately shot down the possibility of a trade between the Eagles and the Redskins involving any pro-bowl players, for obvious reasons. However, the relationship between McNabb and Andy Reid was strong enough that Reid was willing to trade McNabb to a division rival if it made McNabb happy.

"We thought this was the best for Donovan and the compensation was right," Andy Reid said. "We surely took into consideration Donovan's feelings."

The deal is done. McNabb heads the Redskins offense, and Kevin Kolb heads the Eagles offense. This situation seems like a win-win scenario for both teams. I'm not necessarily saying that Kolb is better than McNabb, but he has already proven he can run the Eagles offense and be successful. Even if Kolb ends up being a small step down from what McNabb was to the Eagles, the Eagles still acquire the 37th overall pick in this draft and a fourth round pick, which can become a third round pick depending on what the incentive details are. It's a big win for the Eagles who will still have their offense along with it's efficiency intact. It's also a win for Shannahan and the Redskins offense, upgrading from the somewhat mundane Campbell to a pro-bowl veteran QB.

As for how this move effects the fantasy world, this should be another win-win situation for many offensive players from both teams....offensive players not named Donovan McNabb. McNabb himself may be moving into a similar style West Coast offensive system, but he is moving from a pass-heavy offense with a ton of young talent to a offense expected to be more run-heavy, which also has a good amount of talent, both young and veteran, but of a lesser caliber than what the Eagles are sporting.

What McNabb has at his disposal are a pair of improving third year WRs in Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly. If Thomas can pull his head out of his ass, he can be a premier WR, possessing great speed and athleticism, while Kelly will become the prototypical possession WR moving the chains.

Chris Cooley should return back to prominence on TE stat sheets, starting the season fully healthy and working in a system that favors the use of receiving TEs.

Santana Moss is more of the wild card here. Many people have already speculated that Moss will thrive on deep route receptions from McNabb. I, on the other hand, have come to know Moss as the perennial poster child for inconsistency. Sure McNabb is the best QB Moss will have his entire career to date, but McNabb also has a lot of other weapons, three of which are progressing into their third years in the NFL. Also, McNabb has always liked spreading the ball around. The development of Thomas and Kelly alone will take receptions away from Moss.

The final piece of the Redskins passing game puzzle is the third third-year receiving option in Fred Davis. Davis broke out last year once Cooley broke his ankle, but with Cooley starting this season fully recovered, Davis becomes a backup TE again. However, given the good potential of Moss, Thomas, or Kelly to struggle, I think there is a good chance of seeing a lot of two TE sets with both TEs being utilized as receiving options.

It remains to be seen how the Redskins RB situation shakes out, but at any rate, it is safe to downgrade Clinton Portis, even if Willie Parker never arrived in Washington. Parker simply assures that Portis' value plummets. I wouldn't worry too much about Larry Johnson since he will be a backup at best.

The Kevin Kolb era in Philly has finally kicked off. I can honestly say I don't know exactly what his tendencies are in the passing game, but I do know he has a big arm and two very young, very fast WRs in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. The Eagles offensive system shouldn't need any major changes for the transition to be seamless. Even LeSean McCoy can do an admirable job to try taking over Brian Westbrook's former role. In the two games Kolb started for the injured McNabb in 2009, he passed for over 320 yards with 2 TDs in each game. During each of those two contests, Jackson caught a TD for over 50 yards, while Brent Celek had over 100 receiving yards, which ended up being two of his three 100 yard performances of the season.

I wouldn't call Kolb a sleeper because he won't go unnoticed during fantasy drafts. I will say he should have great draft value because there are at least seven QBs that should be drafted before Kolb--Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and possibly Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, or Ben Roethlisberger. I think the presence of Kolb on draft boards will cause more owners than normal to wait on drafting their starting QB, which in effect would cause a few stud QBs to slide further than they should. Obviously, Kolb's value skyrockets everywhere, especially in dynasty formats. Don't bother trying to buy him in your dynasty leagues because his owners will be stingy and he may be a bit too expensive. Dynasty owners will probably price him as a top 3 QB, thinking he could be the next Aaron Rodgers.

DeSean Jackson still holds relatively the same value as a top 10 WR in all fantasy formats with added upside since he is in his third year as an NFL WR.

With Kolb taking over the QB position, the biggest beneficiary will be Brent Celek. In the two games Kolb started last season, we all saw how he favored Celek, completing 8 receptions to him for over 100 yards in each game. Celek could very well end up being a top 3 TE for the year, and he won't last long on draft boards after Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, and Vernon Davis get chosen.

Jeremy Maclin will have an upgrade in value, simply because he has a year of experience under his belt. It remains to be seen how Maclin's presence effects the value of Jackson, but in a pass-happy offense, I wouldn't be concerned about either guy's value fluctuating because of the presence of the other.

I don't think Kolb will effect the current values of LeSean McCoy or Mike Bell, but we don't yet know how many passes Kolb will throw to McCoy. The Eagles may be planning to draft a big RB to help Bell compliment McCoy, since Leonard Weaver will assume a traditional FB role. That scenario should be the only thing to effect McCoy's value, and Bell doesn't have a lot of value to begin with.

As far as Jason Campbell, there are a few teams where he could immediately be plugged into as at least a temporary starting QB. If he doesn't get traded before the draft, look for the Redskins to deal him during the NFL draft to a team like the Raiders, Bills, Panthers, or Browns who may draft a rookie QB to be their future franchise QB. Those teams would be able to use Campbell to start this season, while the QB prospect develops, or in the case of the Panthers and Browns, he could be put in direct competition with Matt Moore or Jake Delhomme. I have counted out the Rams in this scenario since it seems likely that they will draft Sam Bradford and make him the immediate starter.

Fantasy Implications

~Downgrade for Donovan McNabb
~No change for Santana Moss (still a bum)
~Upgrade for Chris Cooley, Devin Thomas, and Malcom Kelly
~Fred Davis is back to being a backup TE
~Downgrade for Clinton Portis (not a result of the trade)
~Solid RB3 value for Willie Parker with a few added receptions
~Just retire, Larry Johnson
~Huge upgrade for Kevin Kolb
~Upgrade for Brent Celek
~Same high value for DeSean Jackson
~Small upgrade with huge potential for Jeremy Maclin
~Same good value for LeSean McCoy
~Mike Bell's role still uncertain (we will know after the draft)
~Jason Avant will still be fantasy irrelevant outside of dynasty formats

Redraft Rankings ~ QBs Pre-NFL Draft

2010-03-30T03:53:00.003-04:00

1. D Brees NO, 31/10
2. A Rodgers GB, 26-27/6
3. P Manning IND, 34/13
4. M Schaub HOU, 29/7
5. T Brady NE, 33/10
6. P Rivers SD, 28-29/7
7. T Romo DAL, 30/8
8. B Favre MIN, 40-41/20
9. J Flacco BAL, 25/3
10. M Ryan ATL, 25/3
11. C Palmer CIN, 30-31/8
12. B Roethlisberger PIT, 28/7
13. D McNabb PHI, 33-34/12
14. J Cutler CHI, 27/5
15. E Manning NYG, 29/7
16. M Cassel KC, 28/6
17. A Smith SF, 26/5
18. D Garrard JAC, 32/9
19. M Hasselbeck SEA, 34-35/12
20. M Moore CAR, 26/4
21. K Orton DEN, 27-28/6
22. C Henne MIA, 25/3

23. M Sanchez NYJ, 23-24/2
24. V Young TEN, 27/5
25. J Campbell WAS, 28-29/6
26. M Leinart ARI, 27/5
27. M Stafford DET, 22/2
28. J Delhomme CLE, 34/10
29. J Freeman TB, 22/2
30. K Kolb PHI, 26/4
31. M Bulger STL, 33/10
32. B Gradkowski OAK, 27/5
33. T Edwards BUF, 26-27/4
34. R Fitzpatrick BUF, 27-28/6
35. B Brohm BUF, 24-25/3
36. D Anderson ARI, 27/6
37. B Quinn DEN, 25-26/4
38. C Whitehurst SEA, 28/5
39. J Russell OAK, 25/4
40. M Vick PHI, 30/8

Notes

~I am justifiably assuming Brett Favre will return.

~Carson Palmer's stock is rising once again with the addition of Antonio Bryant.

~I have all three Eagles QBs ranked because a trade seems imminent, involving Donovan McNabb. They are currently ranked as if they are all still Eagles at the start of the season.

~Chad Henne's value will increase if the Dolphins draft a top WR, either Dez Bryant in the first round or Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas, etc in the second round.

~I think Jason Campbell played well enough last season to retain his starting gig in Washington, but Mike Shannahan will certainly bring in competition, more than likely in the form of a rookie QB drafted in the second round or later. Forget about Rex Grossman...you mean, you already did?

~As a Lions fan, I have very little faith in Matthew Stafford right now. Vast improvements to the Lions' offensive line will change my mind a bit.

~Anyone after Matthew Stafford at 27 isn't worth much right now.

~Josh Freeman's value can improve if the Buccaneers invest heavily in WRs by drafting them (starting in round two of the draft) and/or signing free agents (maybe Terrell Owens or Kevin Curtis). Michael Clayton and Sammie Stroughter are currently their best options right now and that is scary.

~I have no idea who the starting QBs for the Rams (maybe Sam Bradford), Bills, or Raiders end up being, but I don't want any part of any of them for 2010.

~The presence of Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, and Charlie Whitehurst negatively effect the values of Matt Leinart, Kyle Orton, and Matt Hasselbeck respectively. The latter three will more than likely be the starters, and they will have their values boosted a bit at the start of the season if they are.

Redraft Rankings ~ RBs Pre-NFL Draft

2010-03-30T03:34:00.005-04:00

1. A Peterson MIN 25/4
2. C Johnson TEN 24-25/3
3. M Jones-Drew JAC 25/5
4. R Rice BAL 23/3
5. S Jackson STL 27/7
6. F Gore SF 27/6
7. D Williams CAR 27/5
8. C Benson CIN 27-28/6
9. M Turner ATL 28/7
10. R Mendenhall PIT 23/3
11. R Grant GB 27-28/5
12. R Brown MIA 28-29/6
13. J Charles KC 23-24/3
14. S Greene NYJ 25/2
15. P Thomas NO 25-26/4
16. F Jones DAL 23/3
17. J Stewart CAR 23/3
18. K Moreno DEN 23/2
19. M Forte CHI 24-25/3
20. C Wells ARI 22/2
21. J Harrison CLE 27/5
22. L McCoy PHI 22/2

23. J Addai IND 27/5
24. S Slaton HOU 24/3
25. F Jackson BUF 29/4
26. M Barber DAL 27/6
27. D Sproles SD 27/6
28. B Jacobs NYG 28/6
29. R Williams MIA 33/10
30. R Bush NO 25/5
31. C Williams TB 28/6
32. L Maroney NE 25/5
33. D McFadden OAK 23/3
34. T Jones KC 32/11
35. M Lynch BUF 24/4
36. K Smith DET 23-24/3
37. M Bush OAK 26/4
38. J Forsett SEA 24-25/3
39. T Hightower ARI 24/3
40. D Brown IND 23/2
41. L Washington NYJ 28/5
42. C Portis WAS 29/9
43. A Bradshaw NYG 24/4
44. W McGahee BAL 28-29/8
45. M Morris DET 30-31/9
46. C Taylor CHI 30-31/9
47. A Foster HOU 24/2
48. J Davis CLE 24/2
49. D Ward TB 30/7
50. L Tomlinson NYJ 31/10
51. An Brown NYG 23-24/2
52. J Snelling ATL 26-27/4
53. C Buckhalter DEN 31-32/10
54. J Jones SEA 29/7
55. Aa Brown DET 24-25/2
56. G Coffee SF 23/2
57. T Choice DAL 25-26/3
58. M Bell PHI 27/5
59. W Parker FA 29-30/7
60. B Scott CIN 26/2
61. J Norwood ATL 27/5
62. J Hester SD 25/3
63. F Taylor NE 34/13
64. B Jackson GB 24-25/4
65. L White TEN 25-26/5
66. K Faulk NE 34/12
67. B Westbrook FA 31/9
68. C Jennings CLE 24-25/2
69. R Jennings JAC 25/2
70. L Weaver PHI 27-28/6
71. M Moore PIT 28/7
72. L Johnson WAS 30-31/8
73. S Morris NE 33/11
74. J Fargas FA 30/8

Notes

~Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, it's like choosing between Jessica Alba or Megan Fox. The reason I chose AD over CJ is because Barry Sanders had the best season following a 2000+ yard rushing campaign. He ran for 1491 yards a year after rushing for 2053 yards. I expect AD to run for well over 1500 yards.

~I'm not too worried about DeAngelo Williams' production with Jonathan Stewart breathing down his neck.

~It's breakout time for Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, and Felix Jones.

~This is Ronnie Brown's last chance to be a stud RB...and stay healthy.

~Jamal Charles and Jerome Harrison were very hot ending last season, and will be popular draft targets. I'm not quite sold on either of them being a stud to ride your team on. Charles now has Thomas Jones to help keep him fresh (interpretation - steal carries from him), and Harrison certainly will not be able to keep up the pace he ended last season with, over an entire season--he also has James Davis and Chris Jennings to help keep him fresh. Neither one of these guys have the body or stamina to be a 16 game workhorse.

~Obviously, the Chargers will draft a RB to either compliment Darren Sproles or keep him in more of a third-down RB, scatback role. The most likely candidate the Chargers will draft to start over Sproles is Ryan Matthews out of Fresno State.

~I fully expect Marion Barber to either get traded or be relegated to a short-yardage role. Felix Jones only has to stay healthy to prove himself worthy of being a starter and primary ball-carrier for the Cowboys.

~Safely take Fred Jackson over Marshawn Lynch, but expect some ineptness on the god-awful Bills offense from either RB.

~I want to rank Reggie Bush higher, but I have learned my lesson over the last three seasons. Even with Mike Bell leaving for Philly, I would expect the Saints to bring in another big RB to compliment Pierre Thomas, probably during the draft.

~Justin Fargas is gone from the Raiders, which means I absolutely love Michael Bush's value. Target him in the later rounds.

~Expect the Chargers, Seahawks, Patriots, and possibly the Redskins, Dolphins, Giants, and Lions to address their RB position with a premier RB early in the NFL draft. Do I need to tell you how that would effect the values of RBs currently on those teams?

~Kevin Smith may start the season on the PUP, hence his low ranking and Maurice Morris' and Aaron Brown's higher rankings.

~That's right...Clinton Portis at 42. He is a walking injury report.

~Many people are speculating that the Texans are considering a RB early in their draft. I think Arian Foster did enough to acquire at least a short-yardage role.

~Notice a few players from my recent Post-season Exercises ~ Returning From Injuries article? James Davis and Andre Brown can be had toward the end of your drafts.

~Don't worry too much about anyone after Bernard Scott at 60.

~Jacob Hester is listed as the current compliment to Darren Sproles, but that should change after the NFL draft.

~Brian Westbrook can improve his value with a new home.

Redraft Rankings ~ WRs Pre-NFL Draft

2010-03-29T15:46:00.002-04:00

1. A Johnson HOU 29/8
2. L Fitzgerald ARI 27/7
3. R Wayne IND 31-32/10
4. R Moss NE 33/13
5. D Jackson PHI 23-24/3
6. S Rice MIN 24/4
7. A Boldin BAL 29-30/8
8. C Johnson DET 24-25/4
9. R White ATL 28-29/6
10. M Austin DAL 26/5
11. V Jackson SD 27/6
12. M Colston NO 27/5
13. S Smith CAR 31/10
14. G Jennings GB 26-27/5
15. B Marshall DEN 26/5
16. C Ochocinco CIN 32/10
17. M Sims-Walker JAC 25-26/4
18. W Welker NE 29/7
19. D Bowe KC 25-26/4
20. H Nicks NYG 21-22/2
21. B Edwards NYJ 27/6
22. P Harvin MIN 22/2

23. J Maclin PHI 22/2
24. S Holmes PIT 26/5
25. A Bryant CIN 29/8
26. S Smith NYG 25/4
27. A Gonzalez IND 25-26/4
28. A Collie IND 24-25/2
29. P Garcon IND 24/3
30. H Ward PIT 34/13
31. R Meachem NO 25-26/4
32. S Breaston ARI 27/4
33. M Crabtree SF 22-23/2
34. K Britt TEN 21-22/2
35. T Houshmandzadeh SEA 32-33/10
36. D Thomas WAS 23-24/3
37. M Kelly WAS 23-24/3
38. J Cotchery NYJ 28/7
39. D Driver GB 35/12
40. L Robinson STL 25/4
41. M Manningham NYG 24/3
42. D Hester CHI 27-28/5
43. E Bennett CHI 23/3
44. D Avery STL 26/3
45. L Evans BUF 29/7
46. M Massaquoi CLE 23-24/2
47. K Walter HOU 29/8
48. J Morgan SF 25/3
49. N Burleson DET 29/8
50. B Berrian MIN 29-30/7
51. D Mason BAL 36/14
52. S Moss WAS 31/10
53. J Edelman NE 24/2
54. E Royal DEN 24/3
55. C Chambers KC 32/10
56. D Bess MIA 24-25/3
57. J Gaffney DEN 29-30/9
58. G Camarillo MIA 28/5
59. R Williams DAL 28-29/7
60. J Knox CHI 23-24/2
61. D Aromashodu CHI 26/5
62. M Thomas JAC 23/2
63. J Gage TEN 29/8
64. B Hartline MIA 23-24/2
65. M Wallace PIT 24/2
66. E Doucet ARI 24-25/3
67. D Butler SEA 24/2
68. P Crayton DAL 31/7
69. J Jones GB 26/4
70. D Henderson NO 28/7
71. Ma Clayton BAL 28/6
72. T Owens FA 36-37/15
73. C Stuckey CLE 26-27/4
74. C Schelins OAK 24-25/3
75. N Washington TEN 27/6
76. J Avant PHI 27/5
77. T Ginn MIA 25/4
78. B Gibson STL 23/2
79. L Moore NO 27/6
80. D Heyward-Bey OAK 23/2
81. D Clowney NYJ 25/4
82. B Robiske CLE 22-23/2
83. A Caldwell CIN 25/3
84. J Cribbs CLE 27/6
85. L Murphy OAK 23/2
86. M Floyd SD 29/7
87. D Branch SEA 31/9
88. M Jenkins ATL 28/7
89. K Curtis FA 32/8
90. T Williamson JAC 27/6
91. J Nelson GB 25/3

Notes

~Larry Fitzgerald's stock is in danger of falling a few spots with the Cardinals migrating toward a more run-heavy offense with Matt Leinart under center.

~Sidney Rice's ranking is due to the expectation that Brett Favre is returning.

~Greg Jennings may have the best value out of all the stud WRs.

~With the arrival of Antonio Bryant in Cincinnati, I am unsure about what will happen to Chad Ochocinco's stock. One theory is that Bryant will open up the field for Ochocinco to flourish, but the other theory is that the Bengals will continue to be run-heavy and Bryant will steal catches away from Ochocinco. I would trust the latter theory, but will at least expect Carson Palmer to improve with those options on the field.

~There are a few different groups of WRs ranked together because it is too early to tell which one will be better out of each grouping. The first group is a trio of Colts WRs--Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon--who could all be equally good fantasy options. Gonzalez is returning from injury, and as of now, I would expect him to be the second WR option for Peyton Manning. Both Collie and Garcon are better suited to play out of the slot, so the Colts will start implementing four WR sets.

~The next grouping is Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly. Both may end up being starting WRs, relegating Santana Moss or forcing him into the slot. Thomas has better physical attributes than Kelly, so I expect him to be a better option under Mike Shannahan.

~Two more pairs of WR groupings are Devin Hester and Earl Bennett at 42 and 43, and Jonny Knox and Devin Aromashodu at 60 and 61. I expect the former two to be the better options and the latter two to be lesser. However, anything can happen with that group of average WRs under Mike Martz.

~Donald Driver should have very good draft value, but this last season was an indication that his age will catch up with him toward the end of the season. If you draft him, trade him after a few good performances.

~WRs ranked from about 35 to 52 all have similar values. It was very hard to rank them this early, but more importantly, if you are looking at any of these guys for your third or forth WR in the mid rounds, you can probably hold off a few rounds and stock up on RBs, a starting QB, and/or a starting TE before considering a WR out of that selection.

~I encountered the same value similarities amongst WRs ranked from 53 to about 66.

~That's right...look at the WRs ranked 52, 59, 72, and 87...that's not a glitch, that is how I feel about them, even if Terrell Owens finds another team (Tampa Bay or Oakland at best).

~Anyone listed lower than 70 has a good chance of going undrafted in your leagues, but they deserve your attention during training camp and preseason.

~Lookout for the WRs in their third year that I have ranked below the 35th spot. Any one of them can breakout, and some--Devin Thomas, Malcom Kelly, Eddie Royal, Earl Bennett, Early Doucet--will have excellent value.

Redraft Rankings ~ TEs Pre-NFL Draft

2010-03-29T02:54:00.012-04:00

1. A Gates SD 30/8
2. D Clark IND 31/8
3. O Daniels HOU 27-28/5
4. J Finley GB 23/3
5. J Witten DAL 28/8
6. V Davis SF 26/5
7. B Celek PHI 25/4
8. D Keller NYJ 25-26/3
9. T Gonzalez ATL 34/14
10. K Winslow TB 27/7
11. V Shiancoe MIN 30/8
12. C Cooley WAS 28/7
13. Z Miller OAK 24-25/4
14. H Miller PIT 27-28/6
15. G Olsen CHI 25/4
16. J Carlson SEA 26/3
17. J Shockey NO 30/9
18. K Boss NYG 26/4
19. S Nelson BUF 24-25/2
20. J Cook TEN 23/2
21. T Heap BAL 30/10
22. B Pettigrew DET 25/2

23. B Watson CLE 29-30/7
24. F Davis WAS 24/3
25. A Fasano MIA 26/5
26. Z Miller JAC 25-26/2
27. M Lewis JAC 26/5
28. B Scaife TEN 29/6
29. M Bennett DAL 23/3
30. T Scheffler DEN 27/5
31. D Rosario CAR 25-26/4
32. J King CAR 27/5
33. G Barnidge CAR 24-25/3
34. D Fells STL 26-27/5

Notes

~Take a good long look at the top 14 TEs on this list....keep looking....look really hard. If you are the first person to draft a TE at any of your drafts, my hand will appear out from your cheat sheets and smack you upside your head!!! Seriously, JerMicheal Finley, Brent Celek, and Dustin Keller have every bit of potential to perform as well as Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, or Vernon Davis (the likely top 3 TE selections).

~You can comfortably be one of the last owners to draft a starting TE, maybe as late as round 14.

~Expect Vernon Davis' TD totals to be less than last season. His TD per reception ratio was pretty high.

~As good as Brent Celek was last season, he could improve if Donovan McNabb gets traded and Kevin Kolb is his QB. In the two games Kolb started for the injured McNabb (weeks 2 and 3), Celek posted two of his three best weeks of the year, catching 8 balls for 104 in each of those games and 1 TD in one of them.

~Tony Gonzalez can still play.

~Kellen Winslow is currently not only the best receiving option for Josh Freeman, but practically the only reliable receiving option. The Bucs need to seriously address their WR corp in the draft and free agency in order keep Winslow from being harrassed by opposing defenses, every passing down.

~Mike Martz does not use TEs often in his system, therefore Greg Olsen's stock is falling. However, given the WRs Martz has to work with, he may consider lining Olsen up wide or in the slot in 3 or 4 WR sets.

~A few young TEs are up-and-coming, and although they may not be drafted, they could be hot waiver wire commodities throughout the season. I'm talking about Shawn Nelson, Jared Cook, and Zach Miller (the second year guy from JAC).

~Unfortunately, Fred Davis will be the second TE option behind a healthy Chris Cooley.

~Chances are that all three TEs from the Panthers--Dante Rosario, Jeff King, Gary Barnidge--will go unnoticed during your fantasy drafts. All three have had decent outputs and have decent upside and the potential to be solid TE2s. Whichever one emerges as the primary receiving TE (likely Rosario), they could be a decent bye week/injury replacement.

Post-season Exercises (5 of 5) ~ Returning From Injuries

2010-03-05T14:50:00.010-05:00

Experience should tell you that many players who missed much, if not most, of a season due to injury are easily overlooked in the following season by fantasy owners. A perfect example comes from my 2005 season of my money league. I drafted Steve Smith in the eighth round of that draft when he was blossoming into one of the best WRs in fantasy football. Why did he slide so far? In the 2004 season, Smith broke his leg in the first week of the season, causing him to be put on IR and ending his season. Going into the 2005 season, many people forgot what he was capable of because he missed so much time, and especially since Muhsin Muhammad had a career year in Smith's absence. As a result, his 2005 draft stock dropped everywhere. I was lucky enough to watch him slide all the way to the eight round of my draft where I quickly snatched him up. He was my third WR chosen that year, and ended up being the best WR of the season in standard scoring formats, along with being voted as the comeback player of the year. Needless to say, he was a big part of my Championship that year.

In this following section, I have taken note of players who have missed a large portion of the season, typically half or more, due to injuries, ending the season on IR. Many of these players
will have indeed been forgotten about in your next drafts, and can be drafted lower than their value. However, some of them are well established names and won't be forgotten (Clinton Portis, Ronnie Brown, Chris Cooley), and some of them won't necessarily be great draft options (I'm looking squarely at you, Portis). I'm just simply listing all of those players, who will have at least some fantasy impact this next season, falling under the aforementioned injury criteria.

Ronnie Brown
~~He missed a large portion of a season, once again, due to a major injury in 2009. In 2006, he broke his hand, causing him to miss the games from week 13-15 during the most crucial time for fantasy owners. In 2007, he tore his ACL midway through the season, causing him to miss the remainder of what started as a very impressive breakout year. Then in this season, he suffered a Lisfranc fracture in right foot during week 10, causing him to find the IR for the second time in three years. Fortunately, Lisfranc fractures are not career threatening, and they can be fully recovered from in nine months. Brown should be fully healthy by the start of this next season, but this recent injury further magnifies his inability to stay healthy. Being considered more injury prone by fantasy owners will cause his draft value to dip a bit.

Clinton Portis
~~Here is another player who has had constant nagging injuries, mainly due to his physical running style. He hasn't always missed games due to his injuries, but there have been many times where he played dinged up, and his stats would reflect that. I will look back as early as 2006, which is the last time before this season he missed games due to injury. He started off the 2006 preseason with his famous tackle of Bengals CB Keiwan Ratliff--returning an intercepted pass--which separated his shoulder and put his health for the start of that regular season in doubt. That shoulder only caused him to miss one regular season game. However, the broken hand he suffered midway through that season required surgery and forced him onto IR. He played in all sixteen regular season games in 2007, but had a slow start and an average first half of the season, mainly due to knee issues. He also played in every game in 2008, absolutely exploding throughout the first half of the season as one of the best fantasy RBs during that period. However, going into the second half of that season, Portis struggled, kept getting dinged up with several injuries each week listed on the injury reports, missed most practices just to try and heal, and topped all that off with a sprained MCL, which made him a non-factor the rest of that season. Coming into this season, there was already a lot of uncertainty about his health issues. He didn't help his fantasy cause when he started the year struggling and once again filling up the injury reports with his name. After having just about every part of his body listed on the injury report, he received his worst injury of the season, sustaining a real nasty concussion in week 9. After seeing doctors and specialists throughout the following couple of weeks, he eventually had to find the IR. A lot of people might get excited about the prospects of Mike Shannahan and Portis being reunited and the running game benefiting, but Portis' injury history, being overused during the 2007-08 seasons, and surpassing 2500 career touches early this next season are all signs steering me clear of him.

Anthony Gonzalez
~~He was supposed to be Peyton Manning's no. 2 WR, but in week 1, he strained his PCL when he made a cut on a route, untouched by any defender. His prognosis for recovery was very vague in the beginning, but ultimately it wasn't expected to take longer than eight weeks. Around the eight week mark, Gonzalez kept trying to rush himself back into practice and kept having setbacks. He ended up requiring arthroscopic surgery to clean the knee out, and that helped him eventually find his way to the IR. He should be fully healthy for the start of this next season, but he will have some serious competition, since both Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged in Gonzalez's absence. I would expect both Garcon and Collie to be rated higher than Gonzalez on a lot of draft sheets, which would therefore give Gonzalez the better draft value of all three guys.

Leon Washington
~~Some of you who have followed my work and know my opinions will probably think that I have a man-crush on Leon. I guess I kind of did, until he broke his leg with a nasty compound fracture in week 7, causing him to be immediately placed on IR. Both his tibia and fibula got pretty much snapped in half when a defender rolled up on his leg during his first carry of the game. Before that injury, I had fully expected the Jets to part ways with Thomas Jones before having to pay him a $5.8 million salary/bonus for this next season. I strongly believed that Washington would have been the starter, with Shonn Greene becoming the secondary option in a committee backfield. Washington has always been a workout warrior, has some of the best agility and footwork of any player at any position in the NFL, and has been compared to Brian Westbrook with not only his skills, but with his passion prove himself worthy of a full-time starting RB role. This broken leg may have been a small setback, allowing Greene to emerge, but Jones' departure means that Washington will return with no less than the role he already possessed as the change-of-pace/third down RB, as long as the Jets likely retain the restricted free agent. Greene should step right into the role Jones had, but Washington will still be a big factor in the Jets' running game, and will once again hold excellent draft value.

Chris Cooley
~~He has been one of the most consistent TEs from the start of his career in 2004 up until he broke his ankle during week 7 of this season. In 2004-2007 he scored no less than 6 TDs. In 2005-2008 he tallied up yardage totals from the mid-700s to the mid-800s. During his short campaign this season, he was on pace to post at least similar yardage totals, even with Jim Zorn's offense struggling miserably. After he broke his ankle, the second year TE Fred Davis promptly emerged. Many would think that Davis' performance during the second half of the season would cause the returning Cooley's numbers to take a dip, but I contend that Cooley's numbers will be consistently identical with what he has done throughout his career. Mike Shannahan is not only notorious for developing RBs, but he is also well known to throw to the TEs. He utilized Shannan Sharpe's full potential and was developing Tony Scheffler nicely until he got fired. The Redskins have a bit of unreliability at the WR position, with Santana Moss disappearing for half the games of every season and Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly still developing, not to mention they all have to learn a new playbook. What you will end up seeing is lot of two TE sets with Cooley still being the primary receiving TE option.

Owen Daniels
~~He was by far the best TE in fantasy up until he tore his ACL in week 8. He was probably the best surprise this season for his owners, including myself. Even after suffering a torn ACL, he will still be a desired commodity by many owners in your next drafts. Torn ligaments can sometimes involve a difficult recovery for NFL players, but TEs don't require as much speed and agility in their legs as a RB would. The one big red flag here is that this is the third time Daniels has suffered a torn ACL in his playing career. However, this is the first time he has suffered any kind of major injury in his NFL career, which began in 2006. He should be fully recovered by the start of this next season, and even though he may start off a bit slow, he should still find at least solid production as Matt Schaub's second option in the passing offense. I am curious as to how this injury will affect his draft position. There may be some owners willing to take him early, maybe as early as the third TE off the board, but most owners will still be wary of his ACL recovery. I think he can still perform as a top five TE for this next season, and if he happens to slide in your drafts, he can end up being a nice target.

James Davis
~~Coming into the season, Jamal Lewis was the starting RB for the Browns and Jerome Harrison was meant to be the third down RB with a few extra carries to occasionally spell Lewis. The rookie Davis was drafted in the sixth round to backup and eventually inherit at least part of the aging Lewis' role in the Browns offense. Coming out of Clemson, he was more of a smallish power RB, but during the preseason, he showed quick feet, great acceleration through holes at the line of scrimmage, and pretty good speed. During week 1 he suffered an injury to his shoulder while absorbing a hit, causing him to miss week 2. He got forced back into action week 3 when Lewis was sidelined with an injury, but apparently his shoulder still wasn't in good shape because he struggled in that game and ended up being placed on IR before the following week 4 game. Harrison ended his season in breakout fashion and will be the starter this next season. However, Harrison is not built to take a full workhorse load, so Davis should take over short-yardage and spelling duties in a committee situation with Harrison. Many people will have certainly forgot about him, so he will be an excellent draft target toward the end of deeper leagues, as long as the Browns don't add an experienced veteran RB.

Laurent Robinson
~~Donnie Avery was supposed to be the top dog of the Rams' WR corp coming into the season. However, the third year WR Robinson--acquired in a trade from the Falcons before the 2009 NFL draft--stepped right in and immediately became Marc Bulger's go-to guy, while Avery struggled early. Robinson had his season ended abruptly when he broke his leg in week 3. Before breaking his leg, he had 11 catches, 141 yards and 1 TD in the first two games of the season. These stats were acquired on what was a god-awful offense with a struggling QB in Bulger. Even though Robinson was well on his way to being the Rams' best WR, finding IR so early in the year will cause many fantasy owners to easily forget about him and his performances. Avery will be entering his third year in the NFL this next season, and will certainly be talked about by many "experts" more than Robinson. He will be a hot mid-late round sleeper commodity in some drafts, and will almost certainly be drafted before Robinson, which gives Robinson excellent draft value. However, gauge your expectations depending on who the Rams' starting QB will be, and on the fact that Robinson also suffered multiple injuries last season with the Falcons, causing him to be labeled as injury prone.

Andre Brown
~~The Giants drafted this North Carolina State product in the wake of Derrick Ward signing with the Buccaneers last offseason. Brown was considered by many to be very comparable to Ward, possessing a very similar physical build, running style, and pass-catching ability. Even though Ahmad Bradshaw had proven himself to be worthy of the scatback/change-of-pace role, the Giants were very successful with their three-headed rushing attack from 2008, and hoped to duplicate that format by drafting Brown to replace Ward. Unfortunately, Brown's high hopes of playing scatback behind Brandon Jacobs were cut really short when he tore his achilles tendon early in the preseason. He is the perfect example of an injured player who will be completely forgotten by most fantasy footballers who are not diligent with their preparation during the offseason, especially since Bradshaw filled the role quite well, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Given Jacob's ineffectiveness this season, I think we will see Bradshaw playing the same role, but Brown will be the passing down RB, and could cut into Jacob's carries. If all three guys stay healthy, the Giants should return right back to their successful three-headed rushing attack that found much success in 2008.

Troy Williamson/Jarrett Dillard
~~Dillard was a rookie out of Rice, while Williamson was emerging from the depths of his busted career. I have these two Jaguars grouped together because with Tory Holt's departure from the team, two of either these guys or Mike Thomas will play prominent roles in the passing offense. When the season started, Williamson had jumped ahead of Mike Sims-Walker on the depth chart because Sims-Walker was struggling to recover from an ankle injury he suffered early in the preseason. Williamson's season was unceremoniously ended when he tore his labrum in his shoulder during week 2. Dillard was the second WR drafted by the Jaguars (Mike Thomas was the first) in the 2009 NFL draft. He had a solid preseason, but once the regular season began, he looked more like the project that the Jaguars drafted him as, up until he broke his ankle in week 10. Pending any free agent or rookie WRs being added to the team this offseason, it looks like their lineup will be Sims-Walker and Williamson at wide-out and Thomas in the slot, with Dillard being the forth option. I wouldn't suggest drafting either Williamson or Dillard, but watch them on your waiver wires during this next season. Dillard more than likely won't be a factor for another year or so, but an injury to either the injury prone Sims-Walker or Williamson can quickly change that.

Brandon Pettigrew
~~This rookie TE was starting to become the standard "best friend" to the rookie Matthew Stafford on the field. All that development came to an end with a torn ACL suffered in week 12 at the end of November. Having a major injury like a torn ligament occur that late in the season is not a good sign for the start of this next season, especially since the surgery didn't take place until December 19. Those injuries typically take nine months of recovery, which would mean he could miss all of training camp and preseason. Pettigrew might even start 2010 on the PUP. His effectiveness may be limited this next season, but keep an eye on him on the waiver wire because he has a lot of potential.

Post-season Exercises Summary

All of the players I have written about during this series of articles have one major common thread--their performances or they themselves can be easily forgotten about by many fantasy football owners by the time your drafts take place. Performing post-season/post-Superbowl exercises, reminding yourself of these types of players, preferably writing a list down somewhere, can give you a leg-up on your competition with extra value picks to target. My list of sleepers for this next season will by no means be comprised entirely from these players, but almost certainly no less than half of my sleepers will come from these players.

The players from these five articles I like the most for this next season to either be breakout candidates or great value picks are Shonn Greene (if the Jets do not resign Thomas Jones), Chris Wells, Robert Meachem, Felix Jones, JerMicheal Finley, Alex Smith, Chad Henne (pending the addition of a strong WR), Matt Moore, Ronnie Brown, Leon Washington (surprise), Owen Daniels, and James Davis.

Postseason Exercises (4 of 5) ~ Hot Season-Ending Performances

2010-02-23T15:27:00.005-05:00

Late Rounds/Undrafted

Most of these guys will go undrafted, but a couple of them might sneak into the final rounds of your draft. I will always advise fantasy footballers everywhere to draft your kicker in the final round of your draft, whether that round is the fourteenth or the twentieth, and usually draft your defense in one of the two previous rounds. These guys kinda fall into that same category if your roster size is sixteen players or greater. There is a fine chance that you could find better sleeper options during the final stages of your drafts than these players, but if they go undrafted, follow their progress and the team/player situations around them closely. They could surprise you during the season. I'm talking about...

Alex Smith
~~What do Frank Gore, Micheal Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and Josh Morgan have in common...other than being 49ers? All four guys put together compose one hell of a life raft for Smith. Take away any one of these guys and Smith might sink. After taking over for the ineffective Shaun Hill during week 7 Smith has resurrected his waning career. He has encountered some well documented but easily forgotten problems with an injured throwing shoulder that derailed his 2007 season and caused him to find the IR for almost the entire 2008 season after a second surgery on it. Through the ten and a half games he played in 2009, he completed 225 out of 372 attempted passes (60.5 percent) for 2350 yards, 18 TDs and 12 ints. Project that over an entire sixteen game season and he would have completed approximately 343 out of 567 attempted passes for 3581 yards, 27 TDs and 18 ints. That would've ranked him right around the fourteenth best QB for the season in standard scoring formats. Not too bad for a supposedly busted QB in a run-heavy offense. Morgan will be entering his third year with the 49ers and Crabtree will have an entire offseason and preseason to learn the plays and develop rapport. Put it all together and
Smith could be the best QB2 next season.

Chad Henne
~~When Chad Pennington messed up his shoulder...yet again...in week 3, Henne's destiny as the future starting QB of the Dolphins franchise came to fruition much sooner than expected. He started off pretty slow, throwing for under 200 yards in five out of his first eight full games as a starter (not counting week 3 when he replaced the injured Pennington) and throwing only 7 TDs to 6 ints during that span. In week 13, he suddenly put his big-game potential on display against the Patriots, completing 29 out of 52 pass attempts for 335 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 int. He also threw for well over 300 yards in weeks 15 and 16. In that final five game stretch, from week 13 through week 17, Henne had those three games over 300 yards along with 5 TDs and 7 ints (his high interception count is simply part of the learning curve of an inexperienced starting QB). Those stats are not too shabby with Davone Bess as the best receiving option. Henne doesn't have either a go-to WR or a reliable big-play WR. If the Dolphins address their need for a stud WR, maybe by drafting Dez Bryant or trading for Anquan Boldin, Henne could blow up the stat sheet on a regular basis. If the Dolphins do not address the WR position with a big-play WR, Henne may not be worth drafting, but certainly watch him closely early next season.

Jason Campbell
~~I've never liked this guy, from a fantasy perspective. He has always been relatively unreliable and inconsistent. On top of all that, he has always had a decent amount of unwarranted hype surrounding him. Flying just under the radar, Campbell actually put together a very solid season, posting career highs in all the passing categories (even ints, though 15 isn't terrible). He had a mundane stretch from the start of the season through week 11, posting notable stats only during week 3 at Detroit and week 7 against the Eagles. However, starting in week 12 at Philadelphia, he got on a small hot streak posting over 220 yards and multiple TDs in four of his final six games. His biggest performance came against the Saints in week 13 when he dropped 367 yards, 3 TDs and 1 int on the Superbowl Champs. The Redskins new head coach, Mike Shannahan, has recently met with Campbell and gave him what is reported to be a generally positive review, although nobody knows exactly what was discussed. Campbell is scheduled to be a restricted free agent, but it's safe to say no team will pay a first and third round draft pick to acquire him. The scenario to play close attention to will be if Shannahan drafts a QB, maybe Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen with the fourth overall pick, to either give Campbell some competition or spell his end in Washington. Either way, Campbell performed well enough to be a solid QB2 this next season, especially with both Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly entering their third years, and Chris Cooley returning from his injury.

Matt Moore
~~He is a perfect example of taking advantage of opportunity. Jake Delhomme broke his finger in his throwing hand during the week 12 game against the Jets. For Moore, the biggest door of opportunity in his life swung wide open, once it was apparent Delhomme wouldn't be playing week 13 and beyond. Delhomme was starting to become very infamous for his massive turnover games, so his broken finger ended up being a blessing in disguise for the Panthers. After 18 ints and 3 lost fumbles through eleven games, fans were clamoring for a change. What they ended up receiving was a huge change in the turnover category. Through the five games Moore started, he only had 1 turnover (via int) to his 8 TDs. The biggest kick in the huevos to the Panthers organization is the enormous contract they signed Delhomme to, prior to the season ($42.5 million through 2014). Including the rest of his signing bonus, Delhomme is slated to make close to $12 million for the 2010 season alone. It would seem like a perfect scenario to cut him, but there are no guarantees that Moore can produce over an entire season. The most likely scenario is that Delhomme will be retained and a healthy competition should ensue between the two QBs throughout training camp and the preseason. If having no turnovers through the last four games of the season, and brilliantly conducting two 3 TD, 0 int games in weeks 15 and 16 show any indication of the starting QB for this next season, Moore will be the man.

Early Doucet
~~Buried as the fifth WR on the Cardinals roster behind Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and even Jerheme Urban throughout the season, Doucet has had a difficult time getting on the field. Doucet seems to essentially be the heir-apparent to Boldin, having a similar size and skill set, but being considered more of a burner than a tough guy. Boldin has been on the outs in Arizona for what seems like a decade, and in this, the final year of his contract, seems like a perfect opportunity for a trade to take place for the Cardinals. The rumors have already been swirling about the Dolphins and Ravens having interest in Boldin. In this, his second year, Doucet was standing on the sidelines for the most part trying to learn the plays, formations, etc to get himself on the field and relegate Urban, who I have come to know as "the average white guy." Doucet's hard work finally paid off when Boldin essentially sprained his entire left leg in week 17, opening the "opportunity door" for Doucet. The injury caused Boldin to be held out of the Cardinals' two playoff games against the Packers and the Saints'. Doucet showed what he is capable of by posting 6 receptions for 77 yards and 2 TDs against the Packers and 8 receptions for 68 yards against the Saints. Kurt Warner's departure causes the value of all the Cardinals' receiving options to dwindle a bit, but if Boldin gets traded, Doucet still gets a boost in value. Given the Boldin trade scenario, Doucet will probably still be the third option behind Breaston, but he will still be worth a look in the final rounds of your draft.

Brandon Gibson
~~He will certainly stay on the free agent market of your leagues after your fantasy drafts conclude. He didn't even make much of an impact with his fantasy numbers during the second half of the season when he was on the field. But consider this--he is a rookie, known mainly in dynasty circles, who had an average college career on a bad team (Washington State)...I emphasize bad team...was drafted in the sixth round by the Eagles, then traded to the Rams before week 7, had very limited time to learn the new playbook and acquire timing with first Marc Bulger then Kyle Boller (both awful QBs), and finally saw the field after Keenan Burton got injured, putting up 7 catches for 93 yards in the first action of his career in week 10. After that week he also posted one 6 reception game and two 5 reception games, scoring a TD in one of them. At the start of the season, Donnie Avery had all the hype surrounding him as the go-to-guy, only to continue to disappoint throughout the season, and Laurent Robinson stepped up immediately in week 1 showing his reliability and play-making abilities by outperforming all other Rams receivers, only to break his leg in week 3 and be put on IR. The Rams played the rest of the season with a collection of young "no-name" receivers, but considering how futile the offense was and how bad the QB situation was, Gibson was still able to emerge and post very nice reception totals from that mess. This next season, Robinson and Avery should continue to be the top two WRs, but Gibson has done enough as a rookie to become the third option in this offense with his spectacular hands and quick learning ability. The Rams will more than likely have a new QB under center, but he can't be any worse than what Gibson worked with this season. Don't forget about him when you scan the waiver wire throughout this next season.

The final installment of these Postseason Exercises will attempt to keep players who have been injured for most of the 2009 season fresh in your memory going into your upcoming drafts.

Postseason Exercises (3 of 5) ~ Hot Season-Ending Performances

2010-02-18T16:55:00.007-05:00

Mid-Late Rounds

A lot of these players will have dropped off of many fantasy footballer's radars by the time your drafts come around. A couple of these guys, specifically the TEs, won't be forgotten about, they just simply don't have very high draft value. They will be drafted either by one of the last owners to draft their starting TE (considering the following two TEs, I would highly recommend that option for your 2010 draft), or they will be the very first backup TEs drafted. All of these players will hold some of the best sleeper value to be had toward the end of your draft. They include...

Arian Foster
~~As one of the most popular undrafted free agents from the NFL's rookie class in dynasty leagues, this University of Tennessee product certainly made all of his dynasty owners very happy with the way he seized control of his opportunity in the last two weeks of the regular season for the Texans. For the rest of fantasy football owners everywhere...who the hell is he??? Chris Brown started the season as the large, plodding, short-yardage RB to compliment Steve Slaton, but he became relatively ineffective as the season wore on. When Slaton had bad nerves...literally, not metaphorically...in his neck and had to be put on injured reserve after missing week 13, an opportunity arose for Foster, who was already called up from the practice squad. Foster needed to carve out a role for himself by outperforming Ryan Moats, and he helped himself with a solid performance in week 14. After an early fumble in week 15 forced him to the sidelines for the remainder of that game, Foster needed to continue to impress during practices to get back on the field. Ultimately, the Texans coaching staff decided to take a chance on Foster for the final two games, giving him the primary RB duties for the final two weeks of the season. All Foster did with his new found life was run the ball 39 times for 216 yards and 3 TDs, adding 3 receptions for 26 yards during those two weeks. It appears the Texans backfield is in a bit of a mess going into this offseason, especially since both team owner Bob McNair and head coach Gary Kubiak have recently publicized their desires to add depth at the RB position. But if the last two weeks of the regular season are any indication, I'd say it is a safe bet that
Arian Foster will play no less than a regular short-yardage role for the Texans, and there is a decent chance that Foster and Slaton will be the main components of a committee rushing attack.

Dustin Keller
~~Many people slated this to be his breakout year, especially with the rookie Mark Sanchez at the helm. As most of you know, a TE tends to be an inexperienced QBs best friend on the field. Keller was considered the best TE prospect from the 2008 class of rookies and put up some pretty strong numbers (with Brett Favre at the helm) as a rookie TE. He was predicted by many "experts" and fantasy footballers to have a breakout sophomore year with the rookie QB under center. He was supposed to be the proverbial security blanket for Sanchez. What he ended up being was more of a bust for about twelve games out of the regular season, with the other four random games being decent but unspectacular performances. Once the Jets entered the playoffs, Keller suddenly became the go-to-guy for Sanchez, catching a TD in each of his playoff games and totaling 12 receptions. Sanchez will be a very good QB in the NFL and he will continue to improve over the next several years, while Keller has all the talent and athleticism to become an elite receiving TE. Also, Keller will be entering his third year in the NFL, which is usually the magical breakout year for receivers (mainly WRs, but TEs can also fall into this category) who have stud potential. Keller's performances in the playoffs gave us a little taste of what we could see a lot more of in 2010. He should have extraordinary value in your drafts this summer.

JerMicheal Finley
~~I will begin this entry by smacking myself on my head. Why? When I joined what is still currently my only dynasty league (I plan to either join or start another one soon), at its inception in 2008, I drafted Finley as my third TE in the twenty-third round. When I decided to draft him, Fred Davis, who was considered a better receiving TE than Finley, was still on the board. One of my tools to scout Finley was watching as many highlight reels of him (and Davis for comparison) on Youtube.com. Even after reading every scouting report grading Davis higher than Finley, and even after Davis (and Martellus Bennett...and Brad Cottom) got selected before Finley in the 2008 NFL Draft, I still liked Finley's athleticism more than Davis'. He showed great hands on acrobatic catches, an ability to find seams in the opponents' defense and the awareness to avoid defenders. With some of the plays he made at Texas, I thought he was comparable to Antonio Gates, having a similar skill set. I believe I even mentioned that I thought he would be the next Antonio Gates to my fellow league-mates. Well, after all that, I traded him away during the next rookie/FA draft (2009) for a pair of late fourth round picks...SMACK! Honestly, I thought Donald Lee had proven to be relatively dependable, Finley wasn't able to see the field much during his rookie year, the speed he has now didn't seem to be as good back then, I had already drafted Chase Coffman--the rookie TE out of Missouri--and there was another prospect still available in the fourth who I had good interest in drafting. Besides, I already owned Chris Cooley, Davis (I ended picking him up when he was dropped by another team at that time), and was using free agency fodder for Cooley's bye week replacement. I knew Finley would turn into a starter eventually, but I was thinking of production more like Ben Watson, not my original, somewhat jokingly prognostication of Gates. After he ended this regular season with 38 catches for 416 yards and 4 TDs over the last seven weeks, and then added 6 catches for 159 yards as a huge exclamation point in the Packers playoff loss, Finley has made his presence felt and is due for a huge breakout season. Did I forget to mention that this next season will be Finley's third year in the NFL?

Mike Wallace
~~With the Steelers drafting this speedy, deep-threat WR, they pretty much had little hope for Limas Sweed to develop into the big play receiver and the third option in the passing game they had hoped for when they drafted him in the second round of the 2008 draft. Wallace came in and immediately saw regular action on the field, while Sweed kept dropping passes in his very limited action on the field. All year, Wallace was hit or miss with his production, and if you plugged him into your lineup as a bye-week/injury replacement, you were taking a pretty sizable gamble. His inconsistencies were indicative of a rookie WR still learning plays, routes, and formations. However, he was able to prove one thing emphatically--he is capable of big games for fantasy owners. He had very nice outputs here and there throughout the season, and he started to get more involved on scoring plays during the last three weeks of the season. During that three week stretch, he may have had only 7 catches, but they went for 226 yards and 3 TDs. Already showing big-play capability as a rookie, Wallace is in line for more catches and more involvement in the Steelers' offense as he continues to mature.

Julian Edelman
~~Coming out of Kent State as a QB in the seventh round of the NFL draft, the Patriots converted him into a slot WR and essentially created the second coming of Wes Welker. When Welker missed time due to injuries, the segue from Welker to Edelman was practically seamless. He has very similar mobility and quickness as Welker, and worked very well as Tom Brady's short route possession WR. If he wasn't 3 inches taller than Welker, you could easily mistake the two on the football field without seeing the uniform numbers. This is good for the Patriots, but not so good for fantasy owners. Noticing Edelman's effectiveness replacing Welker would lead me to believe he will see increased playing time next year, even when Welker returns from his knee injury. That could cut into a healthy Welker's production, while at the same time, Welker's return could drastically hinder Edelman's production. This of course would depend on the recovery of Welker's shredded knee, which got injured in the meaningless week 17 game. Given that Edelman ended the season strong with 10 catches for 103 yards in week 17 and 6 catches for 44 yards and 2 TDs in the playoff loss to the Ravens, both games with Welker on IR, he should be in line for increased work next season. In fact, if Welker is able to recover before the start of next season and still get drafted as a WR2, Edelman may be the first ever, highly recommended WR handcuff.

Devin Aromashodu
~~Who??? He sounds like a guy whose name was only known for one of those "say his name 5 times fast" gags. I was aware of him during preseason only because he was fighting for a roster spot on the Bears against other WRs like Brandon Rideau (recognizing no-namers like these guys is an added benefit of doing extensive dynasty rankings for this blog). However, I don't think most dynasty owners were aware of his presence on the Bears' roster until week 14 of the regular season. Before week 14, Aromashodu had 2 catches....that's right, 2 catches on the year. During the four week span from week 14 through week 17, he ended up posting 22 receptions for 282 yards and 4 TDs. Where the hell did all that come from??? Needless to say, he absolutely exploded onto the fantasy scene with those season-ending performances, and has become the epitome of what I am blogging about during these postseason exercise articles. With the Bears adding Mike Martz as their offensive coordinator, we could see more production in the passing game especially from a WR like Aromashodu, who is quick, has great hands and can make plays. Chances are you will still see Devin Hester, Earl Bennett, and/or Greg Olsen taken off the board before Aromashodu, which in my opinion will make him an excellent value pick late in your drafts.